nielsen’s response to prc queries on newspaper readership ...s response to pr… · nielsen’s...

Nielsen’s Response to PRC

Queries on Newspaper

Readership in the Western Cape

in the AMPS Dec 15 Release

Date: April 2016

NIELSEN’S RESPONSE TO PRC QUERIES – AMPS DEC 2015 RELEASE

P a g e | 1

1.1 Number of interviews conducted by day of week to check weighting bias. Response: Interviewers are instructed to spread their interviews evenly across the week. This is closely monitored, wave by

wave.

Traditionally, Sunday placements can be lower, due to religious and cultural reasons. This table shows the day spread

for the Western Cape AMPS interviews in the Dec 15 release, compared to the Jun 15 release:

WESTERN CAPE DAY OF INTERVIEW

Jun 15 Dec 15

Infs 3564 3564

Monday 513 525

14.4 14.7

Tuesday 562 561

15.8 15.7

Wednesday 648 643

18.2 18.0

Thursday 544 523

15.3 14.7

Friday 437 467

12.3 13.1

Saturday 638 593

17.9 16.6

Sunday 222 252

6.2 7.1 The spread is very comparable between the two surveys.


P a g e | 2

1.2 Substitution rates (1.2.1) and sample weightings (1.2.2) for the period, broken down by day of week and by sampling area.

1.2.1 Response on substitution rates:

The table below summarises the proportion of the samples for the AMPS Jun 15 release and the AMPS Dec 15 release that were substituted in the Western Cape for reasons such as outright refusal, security and no contact after 4 calls have been made. Cape Town and Cape Town Fringe Area are listed separately.

SUBSTITUTES

Area 15-Jun 15-Dec

Western Cape 41.2 44.9

- Cape Town 47.8 53.6

- Cape Town Fringe Area 40.5 40.8

National Substitution Rate 36.2 38.2

The Western Cape, along with KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, traditionally have higher than average substitution rates. Cape Town levels are in line with other main metropolitan areas. Nielsen has always openly disclosed our substitution figures. We have very strict substitution procedures in place and substitution is carefully monitored throughout fieldwork. Substitutes have to live in the same suburb as the original interview. Any urban substitution that occurred 1km or further from the original address, is investigated using GPS mapping software. If it is found that the interviewer has not followed the procedures, the questionnaire is rejected and redone. Substitution levels by interviewer are tracked and if they are found to be on the increase, the interviewer is investigated. Even though our Field division has consistently implemented new procedures for obtaining original interviews, the success rate has decreased slightly over time, due to security concerns.


P a g e | 3

1.2.2 Response on Sample Weighting:

Within the Western Cape, the following areas are weighted separately within the interlaced demographics: Cape Town W.Cape City/Large Town W.Cape Small Town/Village W.Cape Rural Population figures are obtained by SAARF from IHS, and the final weighted AMPS results are checked back to the available IHS estimates. Within each area, the weight factors are compared survey on survey to ensure consistency. This is validated in the external statistical CHAID analyses. The range of sample weights in the Western Cape between AMPS JUN 15 and AMPS DEC 15, is very similar. This range is within statistically acceptable norms, as per previous AMPS/RAMS audits.

The weighting factors could not have affected the newspaper results in the Western Cape. The AMPS Survey is not weighted separately by day of interview.

AMPS DEC 15AMPS JUN 15

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Data

WEIGHT DISTRIBUTION IN WESTERN CAPE


P a g e | 4

1.3 Call back rates in the impacted areas. Rescom would need a detailed breakdown of the relevant call-back activity for print specifically.

Response: Contractually Nielsen must perform at least 15% back-checks on completed work. The back-check summary below for the Western Cape for 2015 reflects that more than the required 15% call-backs have been done in the province: 23%. 100% back-checks are done on suspect work and on interviewers that are new to the survey.

Sample Personal % Telephonic % Total %

WC 3564 173 4,9% 652 18,3% 825 23,1%

Total 25584 1765 6,9% 4268 16,7% 6033 23,6%

The back-check constitutes a verification of the AMPS interview. Over and above confirming the authenticity of the interview, specific questions on Readership include whether:

- The interview was conducted using two laptops

- The respondent was shown screens with various newspaper and magazine titles in colour

- The respondent indicated which newspapers and magazines he/she had read or paged through in the past 6 months.

6-Month Readership is also continuously monitored by interviewer: On a daily basis, downloaded interviews are scrutinized to compare levels of “Non-Reading” claims, by interviewer and across waves. Any interviewer that is “out of line”, is flagged for investigation. 6-Month levels of “Non-Reading” in the Western Cape were comparable across waves and interviewers.


P a g e | 5

1.4 Mention was made of the events in the Western Cape (Fire/Flood/Political Unrest) and PRC raised concerns about the

impact of this on fieldwork, specifically any macro-displacement of interviewers and substitution. Response: 2015 Had a much higher incidence of fire/flood type events in the Western Cape that could have impacted on readers’ lifestyles. Reported damage was extensive: March 2015: Fires: Stellenbosch, Hout Bay, Muizenburg 2 000+ firefighters & volunteers 26 aircraft 10 000 ha+ destroyed 500+ evacuated June 2015: Floods: Guguletu, Khayelitsha, Strand 4 000 displaced 1 650 homes under water

In addition, there was unusual political activity in the province: Student protests over the Rhodes statue and fees; DA Leadership change. News events like this can impact on media activity. The AMPS interview (in CAPI) days are closely monitored week-by-week, with targets per week, by province. These reports were sent to SAARF on a weekly basis, together with additional notes regarding field progress and action plans. On the next two pages are the four completed fieldwork reports for the 4 waves of 2015. These were all completed on time, according to schedule. Fieldwork was postponed in affected areas and re-scheduled within a 4 week period. No areas in the sample were substituted as a result of these environmental events. There was therefore no macro-displacement of interviews due to these atypical events.


P a g e | 6


P a g e | 7


P a g e | 8

1.5 How did the substitution rates for AMPS compare with the substitution rates for RAMS diaries over this period? Response: AMPS is the placement survey for the RAMS – the substitution rates for the AMPS and the RAMS diaries are therefore, identical. (See Table of Substitution Rates in the Western Cape in the response to Question 1.2)


P a g e | 9

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY

Sample Spread in Western Cape: The sample point maps for Cape Town and Western Cape, follow this page. Two surveys are plotted for each area: AMPS Jan-Dec 15 and AMPS Jan-Dec 14. We have used two discreet samples, for both Urban and Rural.

- Both plotted samples compare well and show comprehensive coverage of the region.

- The sample spread follows the population density in each case.

- The two samples are similar and “travel” together, indicating methodological comparability.

- However, there are differences, as there should be, particularly in less dense areas, where different sub-places could be selected, sample-on-sample.


P a g e | 10


P a g e | 11


P a g e | 12

COMPARISON OF NON-NEWSPAPER READERS IN THE WESTERN CAPE

Nielsen has analysed the demographic profile of Non-Newspaper readers in the Western Cape, comparing AMPS Jun 15 and

AMPS Dec 15.

Western Cape Non-Newspaper reader Comparison

NON- NEWSPAPER READERS NON- NEWSPAPER READERS

WESTERN CAPE WESTERN CAPE

AMPS JUN 15

AMPS DEC 15 DIFF

AMPS JUN 15

AMPS DEC 15 DIFF

Informants 1488 1832 344 Informants 1488 1832 344

Total 2108 2394 286 Total 2108 2394 286

'000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000

SEX COMMUNITY

MALE 899 1035 136 LARGE URBAN 1565 1774 209

42,7 43,2 0,5 74,2 74,1 -0,1

FEMALE 1208 1359 151 SMALL URBAN/RURAL 543 620 77

57,3 56,8 -0,5 25,8 25,9 0,1

AGE METRO AREA

15-24 494 555 61 CAPE TOWN 1172 1343 171

23,4 23,2 -0,2 55,6 56,1 0,5

25-34 539 611 72 CAPE TOWN FRINGE AREA 263 285 22

25,6 25,5 -0,1 12,5 11,9 -0,6

LSM

35-49 563 610 47 lsm 1-4 71 74 3

26,7 25,5 -1,2 3,4 3,1 -0,3

50+ 513 619 106 lsm 5-7 1277 1502 225

24,3 25,8 1,5 60,6 62,7 2,1

POPULATION GROUP

BLACK 871 888 17 lsm 8-10 760 818 58

41,3 37,1 -4,2 36 34,2 -1,8

WORK STATUS

COLOURED 928 1065 137 EMPLOYED 897 1004 107

44 44,5 0,5 42,6 41,9 -0,7

INDIAN 10 17 7 NOT EMPLOYED 1211 1390 179

0,5 0,7 0,2 57,4 58,1 0,7

WHITE 299 423 124

14,2 17,7 3,5

The Proportion of non-Newspaper readers in the Western Cape has grown significantly from 46.8% in the Jun 15 release, to

53.1% in the Dec 15 release.

Looking at the detailed demographic composition of non-Newspaper readers, the increase follows the same proportions as

in Jun 15. The only marked change is in population group, where there are more White non-Newspaper readers, and

proportionately less Black non-Newspaper readers.

The fact that the other demographics for non-Newspaper readers have maintained the same proportions, validates the

sampling, fieldwork and processing procedures used in the survey.


AMPS VALIDATION CHECKS DATA VALIDATION QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS ON DATA On first analysis of the April 16 AMPS results, and noticing the drop in readership for some key Western Cape newspapers, Nielsen immediately initiated a double-check of all the production processes in the survey prior to the Scrutiny Meeting of 31 March 2016. This included reconstituting the final 12-month combined file from the individual 6-month components; re-checking all the demographic and weighting codes; and comparing AIR readership manipulations for each publication back to the source CAPI interview data. The weighting was also re-checked to ensure every respondent has a weight, that the populations for key weighting demographics matched the relevant IHS population estimates; and that the weighting factors for Dec 15 were similar to those in Jun 15. No discrepancies were found in any of these processes. ADDITIONAL LOCAL STATISTICIAN CHAID ANALYSES Dr. Jacky Galpin conducted Chi-squared contingency analysis, as well as Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection CHAID analyses on the Dec 15 data, compared to Jun 15 data. This is standard for AMPS before release of a new survey. Media consumption was compared between the two waves, taking into account province, community size, language, income and education groups, among other demographics. Dr. Galpin has stated that: “There are no significant differences between the 2 waves.”

nielsen’s response to prc queries on newspaper readership ...s response to pr… · nielsen’s...

Documents