NigeriaBy Sonia Danon, Rebecca Zhang,

Jamey Capolupo

The Basics• Capital: Abuja

• Population: 151.3 million

• Currency: Naira

• Major religions: Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs

10%

• 270,000 children with AIDS

• 95% of exports are petroleum related

• 853 km of coastline

Precolonial Era (800-1860)

Trade connections – Niger River provides access to ocean

Influence of Islam – Hausa contact and trade with north facilitates integration of Islamic principles

Kinship-based Politics – in the South, political organization was usually at the village level

Complexities – not all governing in north was centralized and not all governing in south was at the village level

Democratic Principles – valued accountability

Colonial Era (1860-1960)

Authoritarian rule – in 1860, the British imposed indirect rule

Interventionist State – led to citizens passively accepting the actions of their rulers

Individualism – led to chiefs thinking about personal benefits of governance

Christianity – increase in education and literacy but also intensified cleavages

Intensification of Ethnic Politics – 3 main groups: Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba

The Era Since Independence (1960-present)

Military Rule

1966 – Aguyi Ironsi, first military ruler

1976-70 – Biafran Civil War as a result of Aguyi Ironsi’s assassination

1979 – Olusegun Obasanjo willingly steps down for democratically elected president Shehu Shagari

1983 –Shagari forced out of office by military coup led by General Muhammed Buhari

1999 – democratic election brings Obasanjo back to power

The Era Since Independence (1960-present)

Presidential System – 1979 – popularly elected president, separate legislative branch, and independent judiciary

Personalized Rule and Corruption – result of individualism

Federalism – failed attempt to mollify ethnic tensions

Economic Dependence on Oil – economy fluctuates with international oil market

The Executive Branch President Goodluck

Jonathan (since 9 February 2010)

the president is both the chief of state and head of government

became president on 5 May 2010 following the death of President Yar'Adua, was Acting President by 9 February 2010 (by the National Assembly) during Yar'Adua's illness

The Executive Branch (continued)

Cabinet Federal Executive

Council

Chief of State President

Goodluck Jonathan (since 9 February 2010) - all appts approved by Senate

The Legislative Branch

Bicameral National Assembly: Senate (109 seats, 3 from each state plus 1

from Abuja; members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms)

House of Representatives (360 seats; members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms)

Judicial Branch Supreme Court - judges recommended by the

National Judicial Council and appointed by the president

Federal Court of Appeal - judges are appointed by the federal government from a pool of judges recommended by the National Judicial Council - 14 justices

Justice Ayo Salami, Nigeria Court of Appeal President

Political Parties PDP is dominating party since 1999

All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) - North

Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) - South

Legitimacy

•Prebendalism (patron-clientelism) - the use of favors

and bribes to create a loyal system of patrons and clients

•Nigerian government and MOCs prosper, communities decline

•Imbalance in power

Disunity: Politics

Disunity: Ethnic

Disunity: Wealth

Disunity: Health

Disunity: Literacy

Disunity: Oil

Political Culture Patron-clientelism – exchanging political

favors

State control and a rich civil society

Tension between modernity and tradition

Religious Conflict

Geographic influence

Discussion on Disunity

Which aspect of their social or political culture do you think contributes most to their disunity?

Ideally, should Nigeria be split based on ethnic divisions or should it remain unified?

Do you think this is possible given Nigeria’s current state?

2007 Election According to Nigeria's Independent National

Electoral Commission (INEC), the PDP won the election, with Umaru Yar'Adua as their candidate, in a landslide

Intimidation

Fabricated results

Lack of secrecy

Major setback for democracy

Upcoming Elections Most expensive election in

Africa’s history

Main Issues: Security, Corruption, Electricity, Postponement, Violence

73.5 million registered voters (out of 151.3 million) - voting age is 18

9 April: Legislative elections - 109 senators

16 April: Presidential - 20 candidates

April: State governors - 36 governors

54 parties

Supposed to be held Jan 22

Postponement 4/2/11 (Sat) to

4/4/11(Mon), NOW: 4/9/11(Sat)

announced by Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) head Attahiru Jega “logistical problems”

- ex. absence of voting materials from many polling stations

Violence

High security - borders closed with limited road traffic allowed

Ballot boxes being stolen

Nigerian elections historically marked by violence

Amnesty International: at least 20 people killed in election-related clash over last

Deadly bomb blast on the morning of elections

Security

Postponement Discussion

Do you think the delay of the elections is good or bad?

Causes:

Party logos and names not showing up on the ballot

Materials not showing up

Voter names not showing up on registration lists

Effects:

Ballots exposed due to postponement

Voter intimidation (threatening/loitering by voting stations with guns/bribing)

 Parties station by voting area to control the votes

Election Video http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/201

1/04/11/bs.purefoy.nigeria.election.cnn?iref=allsearch

Candidates20 Presidential, 4 main contenders

Muhammadu Buhari Goodluck Jonathan

Nuhu RibaduIbrahim Shekarau

Muhammadu Buhari Congress for Progressive

Change (CPC)

Age 68, Muslim from northern Nigeria

Military ruler of Nigeria from 1984 to 1985 - deposed in a coup

Poor human rights record

Defeated in last 2 elections

Depend on dissatisfied northern members of PDP for support

Goodluck Jonathan People’s Democratic

Party (PDP)

became President after Yar’Adua ‘s death

Christian from southern Ijaw ethnic group

Nuhu Ribadu Action Congress of Nigeria

(ACN)

former head of Nigeria’s anti-fraud police ( head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission)

ACN party boss Bola Tinubu taints image

threatened by Yar’Adua’s presidency

few clear policies on trade, power, the economy or education

Ibrahim Shekarau All Nigeria Peoples

Party (ANPP)

current governor of Kano State

previously in education administration

rejected polio vaccinations (attempts to make Muslim women infertile)

Predictions Buhari’s biggest contender

undermine PDP - tradition of alternating power

Run-off election

CPC and ACN even talk of producing joint northern candidate.

Early indications of election votes’ counting show decline of PDP, the ruling party – slipping in power?

Some Election Results

46 results out of 94 senatorial districts:

 ACN has 14 seats (30.4%),

 ANPP 1 seat (2.2%),

APGA 1 seat (2.2%),

CPC 3 seats (6.5%),

LP 2 seats (4.3%),

PDP 25 seats (54.3%)

Results Cont’d80 results have been gotten out of 315 constituencies:

ACCORD has 3 seats (3.8%),

ACN 23 seats (28.8%),

APGA 2 seats (2.5%),

CPC 5 seats (6.3%),

LP 1 seat (1.3%),

PDP 45 seats (56.3%),

PPN 1 seat (1.3%)

Discussion on Elections

What do you think the 2011 election’s impact on the Nigerian people will be in terms of their vision of future democracy and the government’s legitimacy?

Who do you think will win the presidential elections?

How will the disunity of Nigeria play in the elections and future politics?

Compare it to the democratic elections of other countries.