NigeriaNigeria

““The trouble with Nigeria is simply & squarely a The trouble with Nigeria is simply & squarely a failure of leadership” failure of leadership”

– – Chinua Achebe Chinua Achebe

Why Nigeria?Why Nigeria? History of tradition-based kingdoms, History of tradition-based kingdoms,

colonialism, military dictatorships, & colonialism, military dictatorships, & disappointing steps toward democracy, Nigeria disappointing steps toward democracy, Nigeria faces serious problemsfaces serious problems

Africa’s most populous country – 140MAfrica’s most populous country – 140M Political traditions: democratic movement & Political traditions: democratic movement &

susceptibility to military rulesusceptibility to military rule Vast resources, especially oil, but 60% of its Vast resources, especially oil, but 60% of its

people live in poverty (PPP of $1500)people live in poverty (PPP of $1500) Microcosm of worldwide religious tensions – Microcosm of worldwide religious tensions –

population split almost evenly between population split almost evenly between Christianity & Islam – challenges to the stateChristianity & Islam – challenges to the state

Gov’t legitimacy constantly challengedGov’t legitimacy constantly challenged

Sovereignty, Authority, & PowerSovereignty, Authority, & Power Even though it has been independent Even though it has been independent

since 1960 – since 1960 – “national question”“national question” • How country should be governed?How country should be governed?• Who should govern?Who should govern?• Should Nigeria remain as one nation?Should Nigeria remain as one nation?

• Issue magnified by regional disagreements & Issue magnified by regional disagreements & hostilities & by the tendency to solve hostilities & by the tendency to solve problems by military force & authoritarian problems by military force & authoritarian leadersleaders

ConstitutionalismConstitutionalism• First constitution written 1914 – but has had First constitution written 1914 – but has had

8 more constitutions since then8 more constitutions since then• Last constitution introduced in 1999 & has Last constitution introduced in 1999 & has

been heavily amended sincebeen heavily amended since• Constitutions represent attempts to Constitutions represent attempts to

establish basic blueprint for operation of the establish basic blueprint for operation of the gov’t, but none has lasted gov’t, but none has lasted

As result, As result, constitutionalismconstitutionalism (acceptance of a (acceptance of a constitution as a guiding set of principles) has constitution as a guiding set of principles) has eluded citizens of Nigeriaeluded citizens of Nigeria

Leaders felt free to disobey, suspend or toss out Leaders felt free to disobey, suspend or toss out a constitution they didn’t likea constitution they didn’t like

LegitimacyLegitimacy• Establishing legitimacy a challenge so youngEstablishing legitimacy a challenge so young• Strong impulses toward Strong impulses toward fragmentationfragmentation

(tendency to fall apart along ethnic, regional, (tendency to fall apart along ethnic, regional, religious lines)religious lines)

• Military one of few true national organizationMilitary one of few true national organization So despite problems it has posed for democracy, it So despite problems it has posed for democracy, it

is also source of stability is also source of stability • That stability lends legitimacy to military’s right to ruleThat stability lends legitimacy to military’s right to rule• Most major candidates for presidency in recent years Most major candidates for presidency in recent years

have been drawn from the military (not last 2)have been drawn from the military (not last 2)• Corruption taints civilian rule as wellCorruption taints civilian rule as well

• Legitimacy of Nigerian gov’t currently lowLegitimacy of Nigerian gov’t currently low different political impulses originating in different political impulses originating in

contradictory influences from Nigeria’s pastcontradictory influences from Nigeria’s past• Rule of law under Britain, military force sinceRule of law under Britain, military force since

Political Traditions can be analyzed dividing Political Traditions can be analyzed dividing history into 3 parts: pre-colonial, colonial, history into 3 parts: pre-colonial, colonial, modern modern • Pre-colonial Era (800-1860)Pre-colonial Era (800-1860)

Centralized states developed early in geographic area that is Centralized states developed early in geographic area that is now Nigerianow Nigeria

Influences from this era:Influences from this era:• Kinship-based politics:Kinship-based politics: especially among southern especially among southern

peoples (i.e. Tiv), village political organization peoples (i.e. Tiv), village political organization Villages usually composed of extended families, Villages usually composed of extended families,

business through kinship tiesbusiness through kinship ties Contrasted w/ larger states in northContrasted w/ larger states in north

• Complex political identities:Complex political identities: contrast between contrast between centralized state & local governance is far from clearcentralized state & local governance is far from clear

Even in the south, some centralized kingdoms Even in the south, some centralized kingdoms merged & small trading states emerged in the northmerged & small trading states emerged in the north

• Democratic impulses:Democratic impulses: tradition of valuing democracy; tradition of valuing democracy; Among the Yoruba & Igbo especially, principle of Among the Yoruba & Igbo especially, principle of accountability was well accepted during pre-colonial accountability was well accepted during pre-colonial periodperiod

Rulers expected to seek advice & to govern in Rulers expected to seek advice & to govern in interest of the people & if they didn’t – would be interest of the people & if they didn’t – would be removed from positionremoved from position

Leaders seen as representatives of the people, were Leaders seen as representatives of the people, were responsible for good of the communityresponsible for good of the community

• Early influence of Islam through Early influence of Islam through Cultural DiffusionCultural Diffusion:: trade w/ north put early Hausa in contact w/ Arabic trade w/ north put early Hausa in contact w/ Arabic education & Islam, which gradually replaced traditional education & Islam, which gradually replaced traditional customs & religions, esp. among the elitecustoms & religions, esp. among the elite

Islamic principles, including rule of religious law Islamic principles, including rule of religious law ((shariasharia) governed politics, emphasizing authority & ) governed politics, emphasizing authority & policymaking by the elite; all citizens, esp. women policymaking by the elite; all citizens, esp. women considered subordinateconsidered subordinate

Important group – the Fulani – came to north through Important group – the Fulani – came to north through jihad established jihad established Sokoto Caliphate (1808)Sokoto Caliphate (1808): Muslim : Muslim state encompassed entire NW, N, mid section, part of state encompassed entire NW, N, mid section, part of NENE

Trade w/ Europeans, succumbed to British by 1900Trade w/ Europeans, succumbed to British by 1900 Put in place tradition of an organized, central gov’t Put in place tradition of an organized, central gov’t

based on religionbased on religion• Trade connections:Trade connections: the Niger River allowed access to the Niger River allowed access to

other civilizations, the ocean; Transportation & other civilizations, the ocean; Transportation & communication easier in northern savanna than in communication easier in northern savanna than in southern forested areassouthern forested areas

South generally in closer contact w/ Atlantic tradeSouth generally in closer contact w/ Atlantic trade As result, came into contact w/ Europeans even As result, came into contact w/ Europeans even

before colonial era, converted many to Christianitybefore colonial era, converted many to Christianity Important consequence from 16Important consequence from 16thth – 19 – 19thth centuries: centuries:

slave tradeslave trade

• The Colonial Era (1860-1960)The Colonial Era (1860-1960) In 1860 – British imposed In 1860 – British imposed indirect ruleindirect rule – trained natives to fill the – trained natives to fill the

European-style bureaucracyEuropean-style bureaucracy• British established area that would become Nigeria as trading British established area that would become Nigeria as trading

outlet for natural resources & cheap human laboroutlet for natural resources & cheap human labor• Influence strongest in south, starting from ports along coastInfluence strongest in south, starting from ports along coast

b/c north already organized into Islamic political hierarchies, British b/c north already organized into Islamic political hierarchies, British left that area primarily intactleft that area primarily intact

Political changes Political changes • More power to elites, reinforced tendencies to seek personal More power to elites, reinforced tendencies to seek personal

benefitbenefit• Further emphasized differences between north & south, leaving Further emphasized differences between north & south, leaving

colony vulnerable to division and future conflict / violencecolony vulnerable to division and future conflict / violence Because broke w/ colony in 1960, (much later than Mexico’s break Because broke w/ colony in 1960, (much later than Mexico’s break

in 1821), has had much less time to develop national identity & in 1821), has had much less time to develop national identity & political stabilitypolitical stability

Influences from this period:Influences from this period:• Authoritarian rule:Authoritarian rule: British ruled indirectly by leaving British ruled indirectly by leaving

chiefs & other natives in charge of gov’t designed to chiefs & other natives in charge of gov’t designed to support British economic interestssupport British economic interests

British strengthened authority of traditional chiefs, British strengthened authority of traditional chiefs, loosened rulers’ responsibility to the peopleloosened rulers’ responsibility to the people

• The interventionist state:The interventionist state: trained chiefs to operate trained chiefs to operate gov’ts in order to reach economic goalsgov’ts in order to reach economic goals

In Britain, individual rights & free market check In Britain, individual rights & free market check gov’t’s power, no such checks existed in Nigeria gov’t’s power, no such checks existed in Nigeria

New expectation citizens should passively accept New expectation citizens should passively accept actions of their rulersactions of their rulers

• Individualism:Individualism: capitalism & western political thought capitalism & western political thought emphasize importance of individualemphasize importance of individual

Tendency for chiefs to think about personal benefitsTendency for chiefs to think about personal benefits• Christianity:Christianity: British brought religion w/ them, spread it British brought religion w/ them, spread it

throughout the south & west throughout the south & west

• Intensification of ethnic politics:Intensification of ethnic politics: ethnic identities ethnic identities broadened & intensified into 3 groups: broadened & intensified into 3 groups: Hausa-Fulani, Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, YorubaIgbo, Yoruba

Occurred partly b/c British pitted groups against each Occurred partly b/c British pitted groups against each other to manage through rewardsother to manage through rewards

Independence leaders appealed to ethnic identities to Independence leaders appealed to ethnic identities to gain followers to convince Britain to decolonizegain followers to convince Britain to decolonize

• Introduction of western-style education:Introduction of western-style education: Missionaries set up schools subsidized by British Missionaries set up schools subsidized by British

gov’t, primarily for elementary educationgov’t, primarily for elementary education Important consequences: Important consequences: Relatively literate populationRelatively literate population Reinforced cleavages – elites received most benefits Reinforced cleavages – elites received most benefits

of educationof education Most British schools in south, few northerners had Most British schools in south, few northerners had

access to western-style education; northerners came access to western-style education; northerners came to be seen as backwards by southernersto be seen as backwards by southerners

• Era Since Independence (1960 – present)Era Since Independence (1960 – present) Leading up to 1960 – British “preparing” Nigerians Leading up to 1960 – British “preparing” Nigerians

to rule their own countryto rule their own country• Preparation began early b/c from beginning British Preparation began early b/c from beginning British

trained natives to join bureaucracytrained natives to join bureaucracy• Education included western political values – freedom, Education included western political values – freedom,

justice, equality of opportunityjustice, equality of opportunity Struggled w/ parliamentary style of, settled to Struggled w/ parliamentary style of, settled to

military dictatorships by 1966, w/ attempts to military dictatorships by 1966, w/ attempts to establish civilian democracyestablish civilian democracy

Traditions established during this era includeTraditions established during this era include• Parliamentary-style government replaced by a Parliamentary-style government replaced by a

presidential system:presidential system: 1960-1979, followed British 1960-1979, followed British parliamentary style gov’tparliamentary style gov’t

Ethnic divisions made it difficult to identify majority Ethnic divisions made it difficult to identify majority party or allow a PM to have necessary authorityparty or allow a PM to have necessary authority

1979 – switched to presidential system w/ president, 1979 – switched to presidential system w/ president, legislature, independent judiciary – but haven’t done legislature, independent judiciary – but haven’t done good job checking presidentgood job checking president

• Economic dependence on oil:Economic dependence on oil: good fortune also a liability in good fortune also a liability in quest for political & economic stabilityquest for political & economic stability

Oil reserves too tempting for most military rulers, Oil reserves too tempting for most military rulers, corruption = oil $$ enriched elitecorruption = oil $$ enriched elite

Economic survival based entirely on oilEconomic survival based entirely on oil• Military Rule:Military Rule: first military ruler, Agiyi Ironsi, justified first military ruler, Agiyi Ironsi, justified

authority by intending to end violence & stop corruptionauthority by intending to end violence & stop corruption Ironsi killed in coup by second general, sparking Igbo to Ironsi killed in coup by second general, sparking Igbo to

fight for independence for Biafra, from Nigeriafight for independence for Biafra, from Nigeria Biafran Civil War (1967-1970)Biafran Civil War (1967-1970) Country remained together, but only militarily Country remained together, but only militarily

• Personalized rule/corruption:Personalized rule/corruption: during colonial rule, native during colonial rule, native leaders lost touch w/ old communal traditions that encouraged leaders lost touch w/ old communal traditions that encouraged them to govern in interest of the peoplethem to govern in interest of the people

IndividualismIndividualism translated into rule for personal gain, & translated into rule for personal gain, & military regimes of modern era generally have been military regimes of modern era generally have been characterized by greed & corruptioncharacterized by greed & corruption

• Federalism:Federalism: in attempt to ease ethnic tensions & remain one in attempt to ease ethnic tensions & remain one country, leaders set up federalist systemcountry, leaders set up federalist system

Theoretically, power shared, but military presidents didn’t Theoretically, power shared, but military presidents didn’t allow sub-gov’ts to function w/ separate sovereignty – state allow sub-gov’ts to function w/ separate sovereignty – state remained unitary w/ all power centered Abujaremained unitary w/ all power centered Abuja

• Intensification of ethnic conflict:Intensification of ethnic conflict: after independence after independence Hausa-Fulani of north dominated parliamentary gov't w/ Hausa-Fulani of north dominated parliamentary gov't w/ larger populationlarger population

For majority, formed coalition w/ Igbo of SE, which For majority, formed coalition w/ Igbo of SE, which caused resistance to grow among Yoruba of Wcaused resistance to grow among Yoruba of W

Rivalries among groups caused them to turn to Rivalries among groups caused them to turn to military tactics to gain powermilitary tactics to gain power

1966: group of Igbo military officers seized power & 1966: group of Igbo military officers seized power & established military ruleestablished military rule

Important change in early post-colonial days: Important change in early post-colonial days: • 1966 – parliamentary gov’t replaced by military dictatorship1966 – parliamentary gov’t replaced by military dictatorship• Tendency for gov’t to change hands quickly & violently – a Tendency for gov’t to change hands quickly & violently – a

series of military coup d’etatsseries of military coup d’etats 1979, military dictator, Olusegun Obasanjo willingly stood 1979, military dictator, Olusegun Obasanjo willingly stood

down for democratically elected president, down for democratically elected president, 2 more coups kept military dictatorship until 1999 when 2 more coups kept military dictatorship until 1999 when

democratic election brought Obasanjo back to power, as a democratic election brought Obasanjo back to power, as a civiliancivilian

• Each election (1999, 2003, 2007) full of fraud & violenceEach election (1999, 2003, 2007) full of fraud & violence Development of nationalism has eluded NigeriaDevelopment of nationalism has eluded Nigeria

• Created Created “national question”“national question” – or possibility that Nigeria – or possibility that Nigeria would not survive as a countrywould not survive as a country

Ethnic identities become major basis for conflictEthnic identities become major basis for conflict• Independence brought competition among groups, based on Independence brought competition among groups, based on

heightened awareness of ethnic differences encouraged by heightened awareness of ethnic differences encouraged by BritishBritish

• Once British left, competition among military generals for Once British left, competition among military generals for control became based on ethnicitycontrol became based on ethnicity

Heightened tensions have left reconciliationHeightened tensions have left reconciliation

Institutionalization of corruption among eliteInstitutionalization of corruption among elite• Tendency made worse by military presidents: General Tendency made worse by military presidents: General

Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993), General Sani Abacha Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993), General Sani Abacha (1993-1998)(1993-1998)

• Maintained large foreign bank accounts w/ regular Maintained large foreign bank accounts w/ regular deposits diverted from Nigerian state deposits diverted from Nigerian state

• Each military leader between 1966-1999 promised to Each military leader between 1966-1999 promised to transfer power to civilian hands as soon as country was transfer power to civilian hands as soon as country was “stable”“stable”

• Over time (1990s) – transition toward democracyOver time (1990s) – transition toward democracy• But 2 facts made it difficult to claim triumph of But 2 facts made it difficult to claim triumph of

democracy: democracy: Obasanjo was former military general & both his Obasanjo was former military general & both his

elections characterized by voting fraudelections characterized by voting fraud Election of 2007 even more questionable than Election of 2007 even more questionable than

previous 2previous 2

Traditional Political CultureTraditional Political Culture• Characterized by ethnic diversity & conflict, Characterized by ethnic diversity & conflict,

corruption, politically active militarycorruption, politically active military• Also includes democratic tradition & desire to Also includes democratic tradition & desire to

reinstate leadership responsible to the peoplereinstate leadership responsible to the people• Characteristics of the political culture include:Characteristics of the political culture include:

Patron-clientelismPatron-clientelism• For example – in exchange for their support, a president For example – in exchange for their support, a president

may grant his clients a portion of the oil revenuesmay grant his clients a portion of the oil revenues• Practice invites corruption, usually means larger society Practice invites corruption, usually means larger society

is hurt b/c only few people benefit from the favorsis hurt b/c only few people benefit from the favors Religious conflict:Religious conflict: Islam began to influence Islam began to influence

northern Nigeria in 11northern Nigeria in 11thth century, coexisting w/ century, coexisting w/ native religions, finally supplanting themnative religions, finally supplanting them

• Rapid spread of Christianity thanks to missionariesRapid spread of Christianity thanks to missionaries• Religions have intensified ethnic conflict, fed political Religions have intensified ethnic conflict, fed political

issues (Muslims support of issues (Muslims support of shariasharia))

State control/rich civil society – Civil Society:State control/rich civil society – Civil Society: sectors of the country that lie outside gov’t controlsectors of the country that lie outside gov’t control

• State has tried to control almost all aspects of life (British State has tried to control almost all aspects of life (British rule & military dictatorship)rule & military dictatorship)

• NGOs have long shaped the societyNGOs have long shaped the society Formal & informal associationsFormal & informal associations Ethnic & religious associations Ethnic & religious associations Professional & labor groupsProfessional & labor groups

• Groups related to gov’t through corporatism & Groups related to gov’t through corporatism & clientelismclientelism

• Potentially could form base of viable democracyPotentially could form base of viable democracy Tension between modernity & traditionTension between modernity & tradition

• Colonial past encouraged a strong, modern nation, but Colonial past encouraged a strong, modern nation, but also restricted ability to reach that goalalso restricted ability to reach that goal

• w/ independence: modernity difficult to attain b/c of w/ independence: modernity difficult to attain b/c of ethnic-based military conflicts & personalized, corrupt ethnic-based military conflicts & personalized, corrupt leadership practicesleadership practices

Geographic Influences:Geographic Influences: located in West Africa, located in West Africa, population greater than all other 14 countries of population greater than all other 14 countries of West Africa combinedWest Africa combined

• Ethnic Groups may be divided into 6 geographic zones:Ethnic Groups may be divided into 6 geographic zones: NorthwestNorthwest:: dominated by 2 groups combined as dominated by 2 groups combined as

Huasa-Fulani; area Huasa-Fulani; area predominately Muslimpredominately Muslim NortheastNortheast:: home to many smaller groups, such as home to many smaller groups, such as

Kanuri; area Kanuri; area primarily Muslimprimarily Muslim Middle BeltMiddle Belt:: contains many smaller ethnic groups; contains many smaller ethnic groups;

characterized by characterized by mix ofmix of Muslims & ChristiansMuslims & Christians SouthwestSouthwest:: large ethnic group Yoruba dominate large ethnic group Yoruba dominate

area; about area; about 40% Muslim, 40% Christian, 20% native 40% Muslim, 40% Christian, 20% native religionsreligions

SoutheastSoutheast:: inhabited by Igbo; inhabited by Igbo; primarily Roman primarily Roman Catholic, growing number of Protestant ChristiansCatholic, growing number of Protestant Christians

Southern ZoneSouthern Zone:: area includes delta of huge Niger area includes delta of huge Niger River; people belong to various small minority groupsRiver; people belong to various small minority groups

Political InstitutionsPolitical Institutions Today:Today:

• Gov’t formally federalist & democratic, but Gov’t formally federalist & democratic, but generally not operated as suchgenerally not operated as such

• Economy remains under state control (as it Economy remains under state control (as it was during colonialism)was during colonialism)

International factors forced Nigeria to turn to International factors forced Nigeria to turn to supranational organization (i.e. World Bank & supranational organization (i.e. World Bank & International Monetary Fund) for help in International Monetary Fund) for help in restructuring economyrestructuring economy

In theory is In theory is federal political systemfederal political system• Various constitutions have provided for 3 branches of Various constitutions have provided for 3 branches of

gov’t but in reality, executive branch dominatedgov’t but in reality, executive branch dominated• In 2In 2ndnd, 3, 3rdrd, and 4, and 4thth Republics (all since 1979): Republics (all since 1979):

Presidential systemPresidential system w/ strong president theoretically w/ strong president theoretically checked by bicameral legislature & an independent judiciarychecked by bicameral legislature & an independent judiciary

• Each of 36 state gov’ts & 774 local governments has Each of 36 state gov’ts & 774 local governments has an executive & legislative branch, & network of local, an executive & legislative branch, & network of local, district, state courtsdistrict, state courts

• Currently:Currently: Neither federalism nor checks & balances operateNeither federalism nor checks & balances operate State and local gov’ts totally dependent on central gov’tState and local gov’ts totally dependent on central gov’t

The ExecutiveThe Executive• w/ establishment of Second Republic, parliamentary w/ establishment of Second Republic, parliamentary

system replaced by presidential systemsystem replaced by presidential system• Many ethnicities fragmented its multi-party system & Many ethnicities fragmented its multi-party system &

legislature so seriously that PM could not gain legislature so seriously that PM could not gain necessary authority to rulenecessary authority to rule

• Belief a popularly elected president could symbolized Belief a popularly elected president could symbolized unity & rise above weak party systemunity & rise above weak party system

US system followed, including 2 term limit;US system followed, including 2 term limit; Followed model until 1983, when General Followed model until 1983, when General

Muhammadu Buhari staged palace coupMuhammadu Buhari staged palace coup• 2007 election: 12007 election: 1stst experience of 1 civilian president experience of 1 civilian president

handing power to another, no matter how flawed the handing power to another, no matter how flawed the electionelection

• Executive under Military RuleExecutive under Military Rule 7 military leaders: not all ruled in same fashion7 military leaders: not all ruled in same fashion

• All have promised “transition to democracy” but only 2 All have promised “transition to democracy” but only 2 have given power over to elected leaders: Obasanjo in have given power over to elected leaders: Obasanjo in 1979, Abubakar in 19991979, Abubakar in 1999

Generals Buhari (1983-1985), Babangida (1985-Generals Buhari (1983-1985), Babangida (1985-1993), Abacha (1993-1998) known for use of 1993), Abacha (1993-1998) known for use of repressive tacticsrepressive tactics

Virtually all military & civilian administrations have Virtually all military & civilian administrations have concentrated power in hands of executiveconcentrated power in hands of executive

Presidents have appointed seniors officials w/o Presidents have appointed seniors officials w/o legislative approvallegislative approval

Neither legislature nor judiciary has consistently Neither legislature nor judiciary has consistently checked executive powerchecked executive power

• PatrimonialismPatrimonialism President is head of intricate patron-client system President is head of intricate patron-client system

(gov’t jobs & resources go to supporters)(gov’t jobs & resources go to supporters)• Virtually all gov’t jobs part of the patronage systemVirtually all gov’t jobs part of the patronage system

Fact that generals have been repeatedly Fact that generals have been repeatedly overthrown indicates system is unstable, OR overthrown indicates system is unstable, OR possibly that impulse toward democracy is possibly that impulse toward democracy is keeping it from workingkeeping it from working

The BureaucracyThe Bureaucracy• Elaborate civil service by British, allowed Nigerians to fill Elaborate civil service by British, allowed Nigerians to fill

lower-level jobs lower-level jobs Civil service remained, grown in recent decadesCivil service remained, grown in recent decades Many believe bureaucracy is too big, & it’s accepted fact Many believe bureaucracy is too big, & it’s accepted fact

that it’s corrupt & inefficient that it’s corrupt & inefficient • Para-statalsPara-statals

Like Mexican organizations before 1890s, many agencies Like Mexican organizations before 1890s, many agencies were para-statals – corporations owned by the state & were para-statals – corporations owned by the state & designed to provide commercial & social welfare servicesdesigned to provide commercial & social welfare services

Theoretically are privately owned, but boards appointed by Theoretically are privately owned, but boards appointed by gov’t officials, executives woven into patronage systemgov’t officials, executives woven into patronage system

Commonly provide public utilities, public transportation, Commonly provide public utilities, public transportation, agricultural subsidies, or control industries such as steel, agricultural subsidies, or control industries such as steel, defense, petroleumdefense, petroleum

• State corporatismState corporatism Can function in authoritarian political system Can function in authoritarian political system

where gov't allows political input from selected where gov't allows political input from selected interest groups outside gov’t structure (Mexico)interest groups outside gov’t structure (Mexico)

Para-statals provide the input & b/c they are Para-statals provide the input & b/c they are controlled by the gov’t they create controlled by the gov’t they create state state corporatismcorporatism

• Fulfill important economic & social functionsFulfill important economic & social functions• Insure the state controls private interests as wellInsure the state controls private interests as well• Serve as contact points between the gov’t & business, Serve as contact points between the gov’t & business,

state ultimately controls interactionsstate ultimately controls interactions• Generally are inefficient & corrupt & many believe must Generally are inefficient & corrupt & many believe must

be disbanded if democracy is to survive in Nigeriabe disbanded if democracy is to survive in Nigeria

The Legislature – The Legislature – National AssemblyNational Assembly• Both representatives & senators serve 4-year Both representatives & senators serve 4-year

renewable terms, elections held week renewable terms, elections held week preceding presidential electionpreceding presidential election

• The SenateThe Senate Upper house; 109 members, 3 from each of 36 Upper house; 109 members, 3 from each of 36

states & 1 from federal capital territory of Abujastates & 1 from federal capital territory of Abuja Elected directly by popular voteElected directly by popular vote = representation like US Senate, some senators = representation like US Senate, some senators

represent smaller populations than others represent smaller populations than others • Ethnic & religious diversity of the 36 states means Ethnic & religious diversity of the 36 states means

senators also quite diversesenators also quite diverse

The House of RepresentativesThe House of Representatives• 360 members from single-member districts360 members from single-member districts• Elected by pluralityElected by plurality• Represent many different ethnicitiesRepresent many different ethnicities

Under military rule legislatures had virtually no powerUnder military rule legislatures had virtually no power Only recently become an effective check on presidential Only recently become an effective check on presidential

powerpower• Notable example: National Assembly’s failure to ratify Notable example: National Assembly’s failure to ratify

President Obasanjo’s plan to alter the Constitution to President Obasanjo’s plan to alter the Constitution to allow him to run for a 3allow him to run for a 3rdrd term in 2007 term in 2007

• But – representatives & senators have been implicated in But – representatives & senators have been implicated in corruption scandals (removed for perjury, forgery)corruption scandals (removed for perjury, forgery)

Low % of women: 6.4% in HoR, 3.7% in SenateLow % of women: 6.4% in HoR, 3.7% in Senate• Reflective of traditional societyReflective of traditional society• Recent figures indicate that as many as 22% of gov’t Recent figures indicate that as many as 22% of gov’t

bureaucrats are womenbureaucrats are women

The JudiciaryThe Judiciary• Early years of independence: autonomyEarly years of independence: autonomy

Courts combined British common law w/ Courts combined British common law w/ assortment of traditional / customary law, assortment of traditional / customary law, including including sharia sharia in Northern Regionin Northern Region

Known for rendering objective decisions & for Known for rendering objective decisions & for operating independently from the executiveoperating independently from the executive

• Military rule damaged the courtsMilitary rule damaged the courts Undermined by military decrees that nullified Undermined by military decrees that nullified

court decisions, generals even set up quasi-court decisions, generals even set up quasi-judicial tribunals outside regular systemjudicial tribunals outside regular system

Judicial review suspendedJudicial review suspended Presidents’ buddies appointed as judgesPresidents’ buddies appointed as judges As result: most judges today not well versed in law As result: most judges today not well versed in law

& render decisions manipulated by the gov’t& render decisions manipulated by the gov’t

• Judiciary today:Judiciary today: Judicial review exists in theoryJudicial review exists in theory Structures exist at both federal & state levelsStructures exist at both federal & state levels Highest court: Supreme CourtHighest court: Supreme Court

• Individual states may also authorize traditional Individual states may also authorize traditional subsidiary courts w/ most controversial being Islamic subsidiary courts w/ most controversial being Islamic sharia sharia courts (in 12 of predominately Muslim states)courts (in 12 of predominately Muslim states)

SShariaharia courts exist alongside courts based on British model courts exist alongside courts based on British model• Example cases indicate how deeply Nigerian judiciary fell under Example cases indicate how deeply Nigerian judiciary fell under

military rulersmilitary rulers Mshood AbiolaoMshood Abiolao, winner of 1993 election annulled by , winner of 1993 election annulled by

Babangida, detained & eventually died in custodyBabangida, detained & eventually died in custody• Presiding judges for his detention changed often, critics Presiding judges for his detention changed often, critics

of gov’t believe justice not servedof gov’t believe justice not served Ken Saro-WiwaKen Saro-Wiwa (activist) & 8 other Ogonis detained & (activist) & 8 other Ogonis detained &

hanged under orders from a court arranged by military, hanged under orders from a court arranged by military, consisting primarily of military officersconsisting primarily of military officers

The MilitaryThe Military• Has lost its credibility as temporary, objective organization that Has lost its credibility as temporary, objective organization that

keeps order & brings stability b/c so involved in politicskeeps order & brings stability b/c so involved in politics• Starting 1966 w/ first coup, military made distinctions between Starting 1966 w/ first coup, military made distinctions between

military in gov’tmilitary in gov’t and and military in barracksmilitary in barracks (fulfills traditional (fulfills traditional duties of military, leaders often critical of military control of duties of military, leaders often critical of military control of political power)political power)

As result, military has been subject to internal discord, military As result, military has been subject to internal discord, military presidents often had to keep close eye on other military leaderspresidents often had to keep close eye on other military leaders

• Military is strong, intimidating force in political system that often Military is strong, intimidating force in political system that often blocked democratic reformsblocked democratic reforms

Is one of few institution in Nigeria that is truly national Is one of few institution in Nigeria that is truly national in character!in character!

• When deep ethnic cleavages w/in Nigerian society have When deep ethnic cleavages w/in Nigerian society have threatened instability, military has restored orderthreatened instability, military has restored order

• Best, brightest, ambitious often made their way by rising Best, brightest, ambitious often made their way by rising through military, esp. important for ethnic Muslims of through military, esp. important for ethnic Muslims of northern Nigeria w/o same opportunities as in the southnorthern Nigeria w/o same opportunities as in the south

Linkage InstitutionsLinkage Institutions• Are newly developed & highly fluid but have Are newly developed & highly fluid but have

organized themselves in number of ways w/ organized themselves in number of ways w/ varying degrees of impactvarying degrees of impact

• Political PartiesPolitical Parties Almost always regionally & ethnically basedAlmost always regionally & ethnically based Didn’t develop a one-party system for factionalismDidn’t develop a one-party system for factionalism Factionalism led to development of so many Factionalism led to development of so many

parties it was almost impossible to create parties it was almost impossible to create coherent party systemcoherent party system

• Resulting multi-party system reinforced & deepened Resulting multi-party system reinforced & deepened ethnic religious cleavagesethnic religious cleavages

• Parties form around personalities, tend to fade w/ Parties form around personalities, tend to fade w/ leadership changesleadership changes

Flurry of party registrations w/ Independent Flurry of party registrations w/ Independent National Election Commission (INEC) followed National Election Commission (INEC) followed death of President Abacha in 1998death of President Abacha in 1998

• Had to qualify to run a candidate:Had to qualify to run a candidate: At least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states in 1998 local At least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states in 1998 local

electionselections Effectively cut number of parties running to 3Effectively cut number of parties running to 3 Ended with 5 eligible parties in 2003 presidential Ended with 5 eligible parties in 2003 presidential

electionelection• INEC accused of corruption in election 2007 & of INEC accused of corruption in election 2007 & of

complying w/ President Obasanjo’s desire to keep VP complying w/ President Obasanjo’s desire to keep VP Abubakar from running for presidencyAbubakar from running for presidency

These parties supported major presidential These parties supported major presidential candidates in 2007:candidates in 2007:

• People’s Democratic Party (PDP)People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – one of better-– one of better-established parties, having run candidates since 1998established parties, having run candidates since 1998

Is party of Olusegun Obasanjo (2003: received 62% Is party of Olusegun Obasanjo (2003: received 62% of the vote)of the vote)

In 2007 (amidst widespread fraud) Umaru Yar’Adua In 2007 (amidst widespread fraud) Umaru Yar’Adua received 70% of vote; party gained overwhelming received 70% of vote; party gained overwhelming majority in National Assemblymajority in National Assembly

But b/c elections fraudulent, difficult to know how But b/c elections fraudulent, difficult to know how much real support PDP really hasmuch real support PDP really has

• All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) – General – General Muhammed Buhari (Muslim from north)Muhammed Buhari (Muslim from north)

Received 32% of vote 2003; 19% in 2007Received 32% of vote 2003; 19% in 2007

• Action Congress (AC)Action Congress (AC) – formed w/ merger of Alliance – formed w/ merger of Alliance for Democracy, Justice Party, the Advance Congress of for Democracy, Justice Party, the Advance Congress of Democrats, & others in Sept. 2006Democrats, & others in Sept. 2006

Ran VP Atiku Abubaker (who defected from PDP) in Ran VP Atiku Abubaker (who defected from PDP) in 20072007

Disqualified by Independent National Electoral Disqualified by Independent National Electoral Commission, but disqualification later overturned by Commission, but disqualification later overturned by Supreme Court; received >7% of voteSupreme Court; received >7% of vote

Fact that several parties merged to form AC Fact that several parties merged to form AC indication that major parties are coalescingindication that major parties are coalescing

PDP originated in Muslim north, but ran Christian PDP originated in Muslim north, but ran Christian Yoruba Obasanjo in 1999 & 2003 – making it Yoruba Obasanjo in 1999 & 2003 – making it dominate partydominate party

• All 3 elections fraudulent, violence levels high enough it All 3 elections fraudulent, violence levels high enough it is difficult for PDP to claim legitimacyis difficult for PDP to claim legitimacy

• (>200 people killed in protests surrounding 2007 (>200 people killed in protests surrounding 2007 elections)elections)

• Elections & Electoral ProceduresElections & Electoral Procedures Vote for candidates on 3 levels: local, state, nationalVote for candidates on 3 levels: local, state, national National elections:National elections:

• Presidential elections – first after annulled election of Presidential elections – first after annulled election of 1993 was in 19991993 was in 1999

• Runoff if no 1 majority candidate; hasn’t happened yetRunoff if no 1 majority candidate; hasn’t happened yet Unusual requirement reflects attempt to unite its Unusual requirement reflects attempt to unite its

people: president must receive at least 25% of all the people: president must receive at least 25% of all the votes cast in 2/3 of the statesvotes cast in 2/3 of the states

Means purely regional candidate can’t win presidencyMeans purely regional candidate can’t win presidency• Legislative electionsLegislative elections

109 Senators; 3 from each of 36 states & 1 from 109 Senators; 3 from each of 36 states & 1 from federal capital territory, Abuja – direct electionfederal capital territory, Abuja – direct election

539 Representatives from single member districts by 539 Representatives from single member districts by plurality vote; no runoffs plurality vote; no runoffs

Result: regional representation in both houses w/ Result: regional representation in both houses w/ variety of ethnicities that try to form coalitions, even variety of ethnicities that try to form coalitions, even though legislative policymaking power very weakthough legislative policymaking power very weak

Election FraudElection Fraud• Many believe Nigeria has made significant progress to Many believe Nigeria has made significant progress to

have 3 regularly scheduled popular elections in a rowhave 3 regularly scheduled popular elections in a row• Thinking violence hasn’t been as bad as it could have Thinking violence hasn’t been as bad as it could have

been (i.e. only 12 people died during 2003 elections)been (i.e. only 12 people died during 2003 elections) INEC w/ outside pressure made attempt to cleanse INEC w/ outside pressure made attempt to cleanse

electoral process when declared almost 6M names to electoral process when declared almost 6M names to be fraudulent; but international observation teams be fraudulent; but international observation teams generally concluded 2003 election corruptgenerally concluded 2003 election corrupt

• Elections of 2007 even worseElections of 2007 even worse INEC disqualified VP Abubakar from running for INEC disqualified VP Abubakar from running for

president, but Supreme Court said INEC didn’t have president, but Supreme Court said INEC didn’t have that power, printed last-minute ballots including him, that power, printed last-minute ballots including him, but ballots showed party symbols, not names of but ballots showed party symbols, not names of candidates, lacked serial numbers to reduce fraudcandidates, lacked serial numbers to reduce fraud

International observers witnessed ballot-box theft, International observers witnessed ballot-box theft, long delays in delivery of ballots, shortage of ballots long delays in delivery of ballots, shortage of ballots for presidential race, no privacy for secret ballotsfor presidential race, no privacy for secret ballots

• Interest GroupsInterest Groups Have played important role in gov’t & politicsHave played important role in gov’t & politics Development of active civil society hampered by Development of active civil society hampered by

pre- bendalism & corruptionpre- bendalism & corruption But there is array of civil society organizations But there is array of civil society organizations

that often cooperate w/ political partiesthat often cooperate w/ political parties• Some based on religion (i.e. Christian Association of Some based on religion (i.e. Christian Association of

Nigeria)Nigeria)• Large # of Muslim civil society organization in north work Large # of Muslim civil society organization in north work

to support to support shariasharia court system court system Citizens sought impact on political life through Citizens sought impact on political life through

labor unions, student groups, populist groupslabor unions, student groups, populist groups

Labor UnionsLabor Unions• Before military oppression of 1980s were independent & Before military oppression of 1980s were independent &

politically powerfulpolitically powerful• Challenged gov’ts during colonial & post-colonial erasChallenged gov’ts during colonial & post-colonial eras• Babangida regime devised methods to limit influence – Babangida regime devised methods to limit influence –

through corporatismthrough corporatism• Central labor supplanted older unions, only candidates Central labor supplanted older unions, only candidates

approved Babangida could be elected labor leadersapproved Babangida could be elected labor leaders• Labor movement still alive, retains active membershipLabor movement still alive, retains active membership• If democracy indeed is established, labor unions could play If democracy indeed is established, labor unions could play

vital role in policymaking processvital role in policymaking process• By 2007 – clear labor unions regained much of previous By 2007 – clear labor unions regained much of previous

power when Nigeria Labor Congress successfully power when Nigeria Labor Congress successfully orchestrated general strike of workers in cities across orchestrated general strike of workers in cities across Nigeria – to protest gov’t hikes in fuel prices & taxesNigeria – to protest gov’t hikes in fuel prices & taxes

• Fuel heavily subsidized, is quite expensive; under Fuel heavily subsidized, is quite expensive; under international pressure to cut subsides to pay immense international pressure to cut subsides to pay immense national debtnational debt

Business InterestsBusiness Interests• Tended to collaborate w/ military regimes during last Tended to collaborate w/ military regimes during last

decades, shared spoils of corruption w/in elite classesdecades, shared spoils of corruption w/in elite classes• Some associations have operated in private sectorSome associations have operated in private sector• Associations for manufacturers, butchers, car rental Associations for manufacturers, butchers, car rental

firms only a few groups that have organizedfirms only a few groups that have organized• In 1990s these groups became leading force in In 1990s these groups became leading force in

promoting economic reforms in Nigeriapromoting economic reforms in Nigeria Human Rights GroupsHuman Rights Groups

• University students, teachers, civil liberties University students, teachers, civil liberties organizations, professional groups (doctors, lawyers) organizations, professional groups (doctors, lawyers) protested abuses of Babangida & Abacha regimes & protested abuses of Babangida & Abacha regimes & remain active promoters of democratic reform remain active promoters of democratic reform

• Staged demonstrations & protests in 1997-98 as Abacha Staged demonstrations & protests in 1997-98 as Abacha prepared campaign to succeed himselfprepared campaign to succeed himself

• Groups are only loosely connected, but willingness to Groups are only loosely connected, but willingness to collaborate & remain active will play important role in collaborate & remain active will play important role in creating true democracycreating true democracy

• Mass MediaMass Media Has long had well-developed, independent press Has long had well-developed, independent press

(unlike most other developing countries)(unlike most other developing countries)• Abacha moved to limit criticisms of rule, but tradition Abacha moved to limit criticisms of rule, but tradition

remains intactremains intact Press reflects ethnic division w/in NigeriaPress reflects ethnic division w/in Nigeria

• Most of outspoken newspapers in southMost of outspoken newspapers in south• Generals from north have often interpreted criticisms of Generals from north have often interpreted criticisms of

press as ethnic slurs reflective of region-based press as ethnic slurs reflective of region-based stereotypesstereotypes

Media actively spread news as events of 2007 Media actively spread news as events of 2007 elections unfolded, many journalists highly critical elections unfolded, many journalists highly critical of government’s actionsof government’s actions

Radio is main source of information for most; Radio is main source of information for most; newspapers & TV more common in citiesnewspapers & TV more common in cities

Citizens, Society, & the StateCitizens, Society, & the State Societal characteristics of Nigeria make Societal characteristics of Nigeria make

democratization a challenge:democratization a challenge:• Poverty: Poverty: 60% of all Nigerians live below 60% of all Nigerians live below

poverty line, w/ many in absolute poverty w/o poverty line, w/ many in absolute poverty w/o means to survivemeans to survive

• Large gap between rich & poor: Large gap between rich & poor: few are few are very wealthy, most very poor (like Mexico)very wealthy, most very poor (like Mexico)

Economy shows fewer signs of growth than Economy shows fewer signs of growth than Mexico, so outlook for closing income gap bleakMexico, so outlook for closing income gap bleak

• Health issues:Health issues: high rates of HIV/AIDS, w/ high rates of HIV/AIDS, w/ some estimating 1 of every 11 sufferers in some estimating 1 of every 11 sufferers in world lives in Nigeriaworld lives in Nigeria

Toll that disease has taken on African continent is Toll that disease has taken on African continent is incalculable, cost to Nigerian economy, as well as incalculable, cost to Nigerian economy, as well as to society in general, is immeasurableto society in general, is immeasurable

AIDS is secondary priority for gov’t, leaving much AIDS is secondary priority for gov’t, leaving much of challenge to small group of underfunded NGOsof challenge to small group of underfunded NGOs

• Obasanjo administration provided medications through Obasanjo administration provided medications through small number of clinics, but reached only few 1000 small number of clinics, but reached only few 1000 people in a country where several million people are people in a country where several million people are estimated to be HIV positiveestimated to be HIV positive

• Literacy:Literacy: literacy rate for literacy rate for Males: 75.7%Males: 75.7% Females: 60.8%Females: 60.8%

• Higher than many nations in Africa, but lower than world Higher than many nations in Africa, but lower than world average of 87% for men; 77% for womenaverage of 87% for men; 77% for women

Lowest literacy rates of our 6 countriesLowest literacy rates of our 6 countries Related statistic: Nigerian women have average of Related statistic: Nigerian women have average of

5.49 children in her lifetime 5.49 children in her lifetime

• CleavagesCleavages One of most fragmented societies in the worldOne of most fragmented societies in the world Both Nigeria & Russia have had to contend w/ Both Nigeria & Russia have had to contend w/

ethnic-based civil warsethnic-based civil wars• Russia in on-going conflict w/ Chechnya; Nigeria /w Russia in on-going conflict w/ Chechnya; Nigeria /w

Biafran Civil War (1967-1970)Biafran Civil War (1967-1970)• In both countries: ethnic conflicts have undermined basic In both countries: ethnic conflicts have undermined basic

legitimacy of gov’tlegitimacy of gov’t Consequences of cleavages for political system Consequences of cleavages for political system

serious b/c have made many basic agreements serious b/c have made many basic agreements about governance almost impossibleabout governance almost impossible

EthnicityEthnicity:: between 250 to 400 separate ethnic between 250 to 400 separate ethnic groups w/ own customs, languages, religionsgroups w/ own customs, languages, religions

• 3 largest groups: Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba have very 3 largest groups: Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba have very little in common; generally cannot speak one another’s little in common; generally cannot speak one another’s languageslanguages

Virtually no contact take place among the groupsVirtually no contact take place among the groups

ReligionReligion:: in China & USSR, ethnic tensions in China & USSR, ethnic tensions managed by imposing communism on society so a managed by imposing communism on society so a unifying ideology held the people togetherunifying ideology held the people together

• No such ideology in Nigeria, political culture is made more No such ideology in Nigeria, political culture is made more complex by competing religionscomplex by competing religions

• Christianity, Islam, native practicesChristianity, Islam, native practices• Ethnic tensions are exacerbated by religious differencesEthnic tensions are exacerbated by religious differences• International tensions between Christians & Muslims in Nigeria, International tensions between Christians & Muslims in Nigeria,

rooted in preferential treatment British gave to Christiansrooted in preferential treatment British gave to Christians• Disputes regarding religious law of Islam (sharia) & its role in Disputes regarding religious law of Islam (sharia) & its role in

nation’s policymaking practicesnation’s policymaking practices

Region / north vs. southRegion / north vs. south:: country divided into country divided into Three Federated Regions in 1955Three Federated Regions in 1955

• Regions follow ethnic & religious divisions & are basis for Regions follow ethnic & religious divisions & are basis for setting election & legislative procedures, political party setting election & legislative procedures, political party affiliationsaffiliations

• North primarily Muslim, south mainly ChristianNorth primarily Muslim, south mainly Christian• http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/nigeria/

Urban / rural differencesUrban / rural differences:: political political organizations, interest groups, newspapers, organizations, interest groups, newspapers, electronic media exist primarily in citieselectronic media exist primarily in cities

• Most organized protests have taken place in cities Most organized protests have taken place in cities despite:despite:

Activities suppressed by annulment of 1993 election Activities suppressed by annulment of 1993 election Exclusion of rights activist & environmentalist Ken Exclusion of rights activist & environmentalist Ken

Saro-Wiwa in 1995Saro-Wiwa in 1995 Social ClassSocial Class:: big division between elites & others big division between elites & others

• Wealth stems from control of state & country’s resources Wealth stems from control of state & country’s resources Have maintained power through appealing to ethnic Have maintained power through appealing to ethnic

& religious identities of the people& religious identities of the people Elite have found it difficult to abandon access to Elite have found it difficult to abandon access to

gov’t’s treasury for personal gaingov’t’s treasury for personal gain Educated elite also harbors those who would like to Educated elite also harbors those who would like to

see Nigeria transformed into a modern nation based see Nigeria transformed into a modern nation based on democratic principleson democratic principles

Public Opinion and Political ParticipationPublic Opinion and Political Participation• Nigeria not yet a democracy but:Nigeria not yet a democracy but:

Despite long history of civil society, citizens have Despite long history of civil society, citizens have been encouraged to relate to gov’t as subjects, been encouraged to relate to gov’t as subjects, not as active participantsnot as active participants

Some activities taking place in civil society, Some activities taking place in civil society, outside gov’t influence w/ professional outside gov’t influence w/ professional associations, trade unions, religious groupsassociations, trade unions, religious groups

Even w/ presence of military rule, presidents have Even w/ presence of military rule, presidents have generally allowed a free press to exist & interest generally allowed a free press to exist & interest group membership to be maintainedgroup membership to be maintained

• Patron- Clientelism (prebendalism)Patron- Clientelism (prebendalism) Much participation, esp. in rural areas takes place Much participation, esp. in rural areas takes place

through patron-client systemthrough patron-client system PrebendalismPrebendalism: special brand of clientelism – : special brand of clientelism –

extremely personalized system or rule in which all extremely personalized system or rule in which all public offices are treated as personal fiefdomspublic offices are treated as personal fiefdoms

• By creating patronage networks on personal loyalty, By creating patronage networks on personal loyalty, civilian officials skewed economic & political civilian officials skewed economic & political management to point they have often discredited management to point they have often discredited themselvesthemselves

Local gov’t officials gain support from villagers Local gov’t officials gain support from villagers trough favors, in turn receive favors for supporting trough favors, in turn receive favors for supporting patron bossespatron bosses

Most favors exchanged among political eliteMost favors exchanged among political elite Corruption & informal influenceCorruption & informal influence Does represent established form of political Does represent established form of political

participation in Nigeriaparticipation in Nigeria

• Civil SocietyCivil Society Strengthened since 1999Strengthened since 1999 Some serve as centripetal forces encourage unitySome serve as centripetal forces encourage unity Others centrifugal influences that cause Others centrifugal influences that cause

fragmentation along ethnic & religious linesfragmentation along ethnic & religious lines• Movement for Survival of the Ogoni People – has done Movement for Survival of the Ogoni People – has done

both!both! Has worked to apply national laws to secure financial Has worked to apply national laws to secure financial

benefits for Ogoni in Niger Delta & to hold foreign-benefits for Ogoni in Niger Delta & to hold foreign-operated oil companies to environmental standardsoperated oil companies to environmental standards

Trade unions & professional organizations have Trade unions & professional organizations have been particularly active in trying to protect rights been particularly active in trying to protect rights of their membersof their members

• Formal associations articulate political interests of Formal associations articulate political interests of Nigeria’s growing professional classNigeria’s growing professional class

• Voting BehaviorVoting Behavior Have voted in national elections since 1959 but Have voted in national elections since 1959 but

many elections canceled or postponed by military, many elections canceled or postponed by military, or fraudulentor fraudulent

Voter behavior patterns difficult to trackVoter behavior patterns difficult to track Political parties are numerous & fluid, most formed Political parties are numerous & fluid, most formed

around charisma of candidates for office, party around charisma of candidates for office, party loyalty is imperfect reflection of voter attitudesloyalty is imperfect reflection of voter attitudes

Babangida’s annulment of 1993 election put Babangida’s annulment of 1993 election put damper on political participation during 1990sdamper on political participation during 1990s

Elections of 1999, 2003, 2007 fraudulentElections of 1999, 2003, 2007 fraudulent• Participation rates in 2007 election almost impossible to Participation rates in 2007 election almost impossible to

calculate b/c of voter fraud & inability of legitimate calculate b/c of voter fraud & inability of legitimate voters to cast their ballotsvoters to cast their ballots

• Attitudes toward governmentAttitudes toward government Most have low level of trust in their gov’tMost have low level of trust in their gov’t In general are skeptical about prospects for In general are skeptical about prospects for

democracy, do not believe elections are democracy, do not believe elections are conducted in fair & honest wayconducted in fair & honest way

• Whether cynicism will remain yet to be seenWhether cynicism will remain yet to be seen• In early years of independence, attitudes toward gov’t In early years of independence, attitudes toward gov’t

generally more favorable, many citizens expressed generally more favorable, many citizens expressed identity as Nigerians, not just members an ethnic groupidentity as Nigerians, not just members an ethnic group

• Ordinary citizens are unlikely to see gov’t in positive light Ordinary citizens are unlikely to see gov’t in positive light in near future b/c of military rule of Babangida & Abachain near future b/c of military rule of Babangida & Abacha

Attitudes toward democracy shared by many other Attitudes toward democracy shared by many other African citizensAfrican citizens

• 6 of 10 Africans sampled in 18 countries said democracy 6 of 10 Africans sampled in 18 countries said democracy preferable, but satisfaction w/ democracy dipped to 45%preferable, but satisfaction w/ democracy dipped to 45%

Nigerian citizens’ negative perceptions of gov’t Nigerian citizens’ negative perceptions of gov’t are based in some very solid evidence that gov’t are based in some very solid evidence that gov’t officials are corruptofficials are corrupt

• In 2006 Nigeria ranked 142In 2006 Nigeria ranked 142ndnd of 146 countries in terms of of 146 countries in terms of how “clean” its gov’t ishow “clean” its gov’t is

Corruption is part of political culture in Nigeria, Corruption is part of political culture in Nigeria, Russia, China, Mexico, IranRussia, China, Mexico, Iran

• Bribes & favoritism are expected to be a part of ways the Bribes & favoritism are expected to be a part of ways the gov’ts operategov’ts operate

• Nigeria’s pre-benalism permeates political system to Nigeria’s pre-benalism permeates political system to such degree that political participation cannot take place such degree that political participation cannot take place outside its influenceoutside its influence

• Protests, Participation, & Social MovementsProtests, Participation, & Social Movements Since return of democracy in 1999, number of ethnic-based & Since return of democracy in 1999, number of ethnic-based &

religious movements have mobilized to pressure the federal religious movements have mobilized to pressure the federal gov’tgov’t

• International oil companies have been major targets, esp. in International oil companies have been major targets, esp. in Niger DeltaNiger Delta

July 2002 protest – group of unarmed Ijaw women occupied July 2002 protest – group of unarmed Ijaw women occupied Chevron Texaco’s Nigerian operations for 10 daysChevron Texaco’s Nigerian operations for 10 days

• Siege ended when Chevron Texaco’s officials agreed to Siege ended when Chevron Texaco’s officials agreed to provide jobs for their sons, & set up credit plan to help provide jobs for their sons, & set up credit plan to help village women start businessesvillage women start businesses

• Ended peacefully, but others violently suppressed by Ended peacefully, but others violently suppressed by Obasanjo gov’tObasanjo gov’t

Upswing in protests since early 2006, w/ groups organizing to Upswing in protests since early 2006, w/ groups organizing to attack foreign-based oil companiesattack foreign-based oil companies

• Armed rebel gangs have blown up pipelines, disabled Armed rebel gangs have blown up pipelines, disabled pumping states, kidnapped foreign oil workerspumping states, kidnapped foreign oil workers

• Nigeria is world’s 8Nigeria is world’s 8thth largest oil exporter largest oil exporter• Events in Nigeria have affected international energy Events in Nigeria have affected international energy

markets, contributing to higher prices & tighter suppliesmarkets, contributing to higher prices & tighter supplies

Public PolicyPublic Policy Years of military rule resulted in a top-down policymaking Years of military rule resulted in a top-down policymaking

process; power concentrated in presidencyprocess; power concentrated in presidency• Senior gov’t officials supported by broader base of loyal Senior gov’t officials supported by broader base of loyal

junior officials, creating a “junior officials, creating a “loyalty pyramidloyalty pyramid” ” Since military in control until 1999, pyramids were Since military in control until 1999, pyramids were

backed by guns so protesting corruption dangerousbacked by guns so protesting corruption dangerous• Operated under assumption military & political elite Operated under assumption military & political elite

worked w/ only self-interest in mindworked w/ only self-interest in mind Pattern put in place by British who relied on native Pattern put in place by British who relied on native

chiefs to ensure trade & resourceschiefs to ensure trade & resources To break this pattern, political elite must get in touch To break this pattern, political elite must get in touch

w/ older roots – communalism from pre-colonial daysw/ older roots – communalism from pre-colonial days Democratic rule requires political leaders are Democratic rule requires political leaders are

responsible for welfare of their people, not only those responsible for welfare of their people, not only those they owe favors they owe favors

Economic IssuesEconomic Issues• Result of loyalty pyramids: squandering Nigeria’s wealthResult of loyalty pyramids: squandering Nigeria’s wealth• Complicated by ethnic/regional hostility & distrust of gov’tComplicated by ethnic/regional hostility & distrust of gov’t• Currently finds itself deeply in debt, most live in povertyCurrently finds itself deeply in debt, most live in poverty

Oil money to gov’t officials, most don’t profit from it Oil money to gov’t officials, most don’t profit from it Feb 2001: federal gov’t asked S Court to allow federal Feb 2001: federal gov’t asked S Court to allow federal

gov’t to collect oil revenues into a “federal account”gov’t to collect oil revenues into a “federal account”• On surface appears to be revenue sharing (allowing On surface appears to be revenue sharing (allowing

entire country to benefit from offshore oil profits)entire country to benefit from offshore oil profits)• Areas south along Niger Delta protested this, partly Areas south along Niger Delta protested this, partly

b/c they saw policy as coming from northerners who b/c they saw policy as coming from northerners who wanted to take southern profits awaywanted to take southern profits away

• w/o trust in gov’t, no one believed profits would w/o trust in gov’t, no one believed profits would benefit anyone except corrupt gov’t officialsbenefit anyone except corrupt gov’t officials

• Oil: a Source of Strength or Weakness?Oil: a Source of Strength or Weakness? State’s main role: controlling nation’s revenues & State’s main role: controlling nation’s revenues &

spending earnings (spending earnings (rentsrents) which comes from oil) which comes from oil• Individuals, communities, groups learned to compete in Individuals, communities, groups learned to compete in

rent-seekingrent-seeking behavior, looking for gov’ts largesse behavior, looking for gov’ts largesse• Those that win do it through political connections (pre-Those that win do it through political connections (pre-

bendalism)bendalism)• Most Nigerians struggle along w/o much success, Most Nigerians struggle along w/o much success,

participating in participating in informal economyinformal economy of unreported of unreported incomes from small-scale trade & subsistence agricultureincomes from small-scale trade & subsistence agriculture

1970s – oil gave it a lot of international leverage1970s – oil gave it a lot of international leverage• Active member of OPEC – could make political & Active member of OPEC – could make political &

economic demands b/c developed countries need oil!economic demands b/c developed countries need oil!• Gained clout whenever Mid-East tensions cut off oil Gained clout whenever Mid-East tensions cut off oil

Over-reliance on oil means country’s economy Over-reliance on oil means country’s economy suffers disproportionally when oil prices decreasesuffers disproportionally when oil prices decrease

• Has amassed great debt, partly b/c profits don’t remain Has amassed great debt, partly b/c profits don’t remain in state’s coffersin state’s coffers

One major issue since 2006: unstable situation in One major issue since 2006: unstable situation in Niger Delta regarding protests & subterfuge of Niger Delta regarding protests & subterfuge of foreign-based oil companies thereforeign-based oil companies there

• Some groups idealistic, wanting more $$ going to the Some groups idealistic, wanting more $$ going to the people of delta states (i.e. Movement for the people of delta states (i.e. Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta)Emancipation of the Niger Delta)

But it uses violence, driving some companies awayBut it uses violence, driving some companies away Others w/ no communal goals joining movementOthers w/ no communal goals joining movement

• Dealing w/ this issue 1 of biggest challenges facing Dealing w/ this issue 1 of biggest challenges facing current administrationscurrent administrations

• Structural AdjustmentStructural Adjustment 1985: Babangida regime developed economic 1985: Babangida regime developed economic

structural adjustment programstructural adjustment program w/ support of w/ support of World Bank & International Monetary FundWorld Bank & International Monetary Fund

• Sought to restructure & diversify Nigerian economy to Sought to restructure & diversify Nigerian economy to decrease dependence on oildecrease dependence on oil

• Gov’t also pledged to reduce gov’t spending & privatize Gov’t also pledged to reduce gov’t spending & privatize para-statalspara-statals

• This “shock treatment” had mixed resultsThis “shock treatment” had mixed results Timelines for debt repayment have been restructured Timelines for debt repayment have been restructured

b/c could not keep up w/ paymentsb/c could not keep up w/ payments Para-statals still under state controlPara-statals still under state control Private economic sector not grown significantlyPrivate economic sector not grown significantly Large national debt remains a problemLarge national debt remains a problem Rise in oil prices recently meant GDP per capita has Rise in oil prices recently meant GDP per capita has

improved over recent yearsimproved over recent years

““Federal Character”Federal Character”• Most see federalism as positive, desirableMost see federalism as positive, desirable

Promises power will be shared, all people in all parts of Promises power will be shared, all people in all parts of country will be fairly representedcountry will be fairly represented

Allows citizens more contact points w/ gov’tAllows citizens more contact points w/ gov’t• In Nigeria, goal is In Nigeria, goal is “federal character”“federal character” – principle that gov’t – principle that gov’t

recognizes people of all ethnicities, religions, regions, & takes recognizes people of all ethnicities, religions, regions, & takes their needs into accounttheir needs into account

Nigerian Constitution tries to accomplish thisNigerian Constitution tries to accomplish this But so far this ethnic balancing has not promoted unity or But so far this ethnic balancing has not promoted unity or

nationalism, only serves to divide morenationalism, only serves to divide more• Negative effect of federalism: Negative effect of federalism:

Bloat & promote corruption w/in bureaucracy Bloat & promote corruption w/in bureaucracy • Since all ethnicities must be represented, sometimes Since all ethnicities must be represented, sometimes

jobs created to satisfy the demandjobs created to satisfy the demand• Once in position, appointees see themselves as beholden Once in position, appointees see themselves as beholden

to ethnic / regional intereststo ethnic / regional interests In legislature, 36 states vie for control of gov’t resources, In legislature, 36 states vie for control of gov’t resources,

see themselves in competition w/ other ethnic groupssee themselves in competition w/ other ethnic groups

• Do Nigerians have enough in common to remain Do Nigerians have enough in common to remain together as a country?together as a country?

Many southerners contend true federalism will exist Many southerners contend true federalism will exist only when central gov’t devolves some of its power to only when central gov’t devolves some of its power to state & local levelsstate & local levels

• For example: Nigerians of Niger Delta believe For example: Nigerians of Niger Delta believe regions should control own resources (gov’t regions should control own resources (gov’t shouldn’t redistribute region’s oil revenues)shouldn’t redistribute region’s oil revenues)

Northerners generally don’t support “true federalism” Northerners generally don’t support “true federalism” movement b/c region historically has not had as many movement b/c region historically has not had as many resources or as much revenue to shareresources or as much revenue to share

• Many Northern states benefit more than Many Northern states benefit more than southerners from nationally sponsored southerners from nationally sponsored redistribution programsredistribution programs

DemocratizationDemocratization• Changes since 1999:Changes since 1999:

Some public enterprises (para-statals) have been Some public enterprises (para-statals) have been privatized, opening way for limitations on privatized, opening way for limitations on economic control of central gov’teconomic control of central gov’t

Scheme for alleviating poverty set forwardScheme for alleviating poverty set forward Public wages increased in recent years, w/ hope Public wages increased in recent years, w/ hope

that well paid employees not as susceptible to that well paid employees not as susceptible to briberybribery

Financial reserves have grown, partly b/c oil prices Financial reserves have grown, partly b/c oil prices risingrising

• Despite all its problems, signs democracy may be taking Despite all its problems, signs democracy may be taking root in presidential system (but is not there yet):root in presidential system (but is not there yet):

Some checks & balances between gov’t branchesSome checks & balances between gov’t branches (keeping Obasanjo from being able to change (keeping Obasanjo from being able to change Constitution & run for 3Constitution & run for 3rdrd term in 2007) term in 2007)

Some independent decisions in the courts Some independent decisions in the courts (allowing Abubakar to run for president in 2007 when (allowing Abubakar to run for president in 2007 when Obasanjo tried to prevent it)Obasanjo tried to prevent it)

Revival of civil societyRevival of civil society (civic & religious groups (civic & religious groups driven underground by military rule have reactivated)driven underground by military rule have reactivated)

Independent mediaIndependent media (2007 election – media sent (2007 election – media sent reporters around country to report fraud)reporters around country to report fraud)

Peaceful succession of powerPeaceful succession of power (for first time in (for first time in Nigeria’s history – peaceful transfer of power in 2007)Nigeria’s history – peaceful transfer of power in 2007)

Improving Freedom House scoresImproving Freedom House scores (2007, Freedom (2007, Freedom House ranked Nigeria as a “4” – “partly free”; score House ranked Nigeria as a “4” – “partly free”; score has improved in recent yearshas improved in recent years

• One of key characteristics of true democracy is existence of One of key characteristics of true democracy is existence of regular competitive elections in which citizens have real regular competitive elections in which citizens have real alternative choicesalternative choices

On one hand, easy to criticize Nigerian election processOn one hand, easy to criticize Nigerian election process• 1993 election annulled1993 election annulled• 1999 & 2003 elections put former military general back 1999 & 2003 elections put former military general back

in power in power • 1999, 2003, 2007 elections: ballot box theft, stuffing1999, 2003, 2007 elections: ballot box theft, stuffing

On other hand, 3 elections have been held in a row w/o On other hand, 3 elections have been held in a row w/o being suspended or annulledbeing suspended or annulled

• Some contend this generation of presidential candidates Some contend this generation of presidential candidates consists of military men b/c are only ones w/ experience consists of military men b/c are only ones w/ experience necessary to governnecessary to govern

Predict younger, nonmilitary leaders will emerge as Predict younger, nonmilitary leaders will emerge as political candidates in near futurepolitical candidates in near future

Umaru Yar’Adua & Goodluck Johnathon not militaryUmaru Yar’Adua & Goodluck Johnathon not military Perhaps best question: “Was this election better than Perhaps best question: “Was this election better than

the last one?”the last one?”