Niigata Earthquake, Japan, 1970 : When Soils Liquefied, Houses Tilted

Hawaii

Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called Ring of Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The trenches are shown in blue-green. The volcanic island arcs, although not labelled, are parallel to, and always landward of, the trenches. For example, the island arc associated with the Aleutian Trench is represented by the long chain of volcanoes that make up the Aleutian Islands.

Tectonic SettingHazards

GREEN:

No eruption anticipated.

Volcano is in quiet, “dormant” state.

YELLOW:

An eruption is possible in the next few weeks and may occur with little or no additional warning. Small earthquakes detected locally and (or) increased levels of volcanic gas emissions.

ORANGE:

Explosive eruption is possible within a few days and may occur with little or no warning. Ash plume(s) not expected to reach 25,000 feet above sea level. Increased numbers of local earthquakes. Extrusion of a lava dome or lava flows (non-explosive eruption) may be occurring.

RED:

Major explosive eruption expected within 24 hours. Large ash plume(s) expected to reach at least 25,000 feet above sea level. Strong earthquake activity detected even at distant monitoring stations. Explosive eruption may be in progress.

LEVEL OF CONCERN COLOR CODE: Generic

Most of the world's great earthquakes and tsunamis initiate in the zone of underthrusting or seismogenic zone of subduction zones.

Types of earthquakesThere are many different types of earthquakes: tectonic, volcanic, and explosion. The type of earthquake depends on the region where it occurs and the geological make-up of that region. The most common are tectonic earthquakes. These occur when rocks in the earth's crust break due to geological forces created by movement of tectonic plates. Another type,volcanic earthquakes, occur in conjunction with volcanic activity. Collapse earthquakes are small earthquakes in underground caverns and mines, and explosion earthquakes result from the explosion of nuclear and chemical devices. We can measure motion from large tectonic earthquakes using GPS because rocks on either side of a fault are offset during this type of earthquake.

Reef

Earthquakes and Human EnvironmentThe threat posed to people and property in a given location is based on 1. distance from the earthquake epicenter and2. stability of the soil in the area. Although the soil conditions in

Earthquake HazardsShaking

LiquefactionFaulting, Land SubsidenceLandslidesTsunami

Volcani HazardsLava flows, lava floodsShaking

LaharsLand SubsidenceLandslidesTsunami

What is Risk ?

• the Potential for incurring Future Losses, Near future, Distant future

(Note Element of Uncertainty)

• the Probability (chance per unit time)

to incur a Loss of some Magnitude

• A Rational Concept beyond “Acts of God”

Geologic Hazards have long time span

Effects of Natural Disasters: The Human Impact

Immediate & Personal Effects:Death, Injuries, Health ThreatLoss of Possessions, Shelter, Food, Water, HeatDisrupted Families, Missing Persons, Shock, Grief, Trauma

Public Effects / Disruptions Rule by Emergency Law (may restrict Individuals’ Rights , Curfews)Public Needs override Individual/Private Needs

Strict Enforcement of Law and Order (Looting)Threat to Public Health, Environment and

Effects of Natural Disasters: The Human Impact Ecology

Loss of Government ServicesFailure of Infrastructures / Utility Services (e.g.

Transportation, ….)

Private Sector / Economic RepercussionsLoss of Production and Service FacilitiesLoss of IncomeEnvironmental / Ecological / Agricultural EffectsIncurrence of Debt (Long-term)Sometimes: Economic Boom , Massive Construction fed by Relief Aid

Emergency response system is the first line facing a disaster.

Basic Principle of Diaster Risk Management and Mitigation PlanningNatural Disasters occur at the Intersection of People with Nature’s Extreme Events.

Risk = Sum (Hazard x Assets x Fragility).

Disaster / Emergency Preparedness Requires a strong Constitutional / Legal / Institutional Basis. Political Will Power and Fiscal Resources. PEPPER: Pre-Event Preparedness / Post Event Response. Mitigation especially requires Long-Range Planning, Political Will Power, and Persevirence. Pressure of Short- vs. Longterm Objectives.

Vulnerability: Difference between Risk and Societal Vulnerability. On a Global Scale, Vulnerability is tied to Poverty & limited Access to Resources and Good Government. But highly developed Metro Areas (e.g. NYC or Tokyo, and their Infrastructure) are also exposed to Low-Probability / High-Consequence Risks, e.g. to Storm Surges / Sea Level Rise, and Earthquakes.

Risk Management Constitutional, Legal & Organizational/Institutional Issues. Mitigation is Tied to Development / Capacity Building/ Infrastructure. In Developing Countries Development Banks have a Major Role to Play, but they often fail in this task. Lesser role of NGOs & UN. On a Global Scale, there is great Uncertainty about the Human Ability to Harness the Global Risks from “Natural” Disasters, given the Global Population / Demographic / Economic Trends.

Earthquake survivors in Bam, Iran continue to suffer psychological trauma from their ordeal in December 2003, with health officials noting that rehabilitation may take quite some time. The earthquake hit the southeastern Iranian city in the province of Kerman, on 26 December, killing at least 40,000 people and leaving more than 100,000 homeless .

Hingrai earthquake: At least 24,000people were affected when two earthquakes, measuring 5.7 and 5.5 on the Richter scale, hit Pakistan on February 14, 2003.Another house, with its walls threatening to collapse, shored up by wooden planks, Hingrai, Balakot, NWFP, Pakistan.

Risk management aims to reduce risk through manipulation of the risk equation. Mitigation takes place before the event by updating building codes, halting construction in hazardous areas, retrofitting existing building stock, enacting and enforcing building codes for new properties, and relocation of residents to less hazardous areas. Response to a disaster is made effective if emergency facilities are accessible and functional and the public is aware and educated. Rebuilding after an event should expand upon these principles

Development Agencies and Private Sector Financial Institutions Play an Important Role: (from a manual issued by the Inter-American Development Bank)

(source: IDB)

ICS: Incident Command System is the model tool for:

command, control,

coordination of a disaster / incident response. It provides the means to coordinate the efforts of individual agencies (local, state, federal) with specialized capabilities as they work toward the common goal of stabilizing the incident and protecting life, property, and the environment. During major emergencies it is common that no single agency or department can handle the emergency situation alone. All agencies must work together to manage it.

To coordinate the effective use of all available resources, agencies need a formalized management structure that lends consistency, fosters efficiency, and provides direction during a response.

Standard fare in geology textbooks and school classrooms across the world is that the hot springs, geysers and volcanoes of Yellowstone National Park, Hawaii, Iceland, and many other volcanic regions were “created” by plumes of hot rock that rise from near the Earth’s core. New results from recently published U.S. Geological Survey research hint, astonishingly, that such plumes may not exist at all." Results from seismic tomography, a method that uses earthquake waves to “CAT scan” the Earth’s secretive goings-on, suggest that the magma system beneath Yellowstone is only skin deep – shallower than 120 miles, far less than the 1,750 miles scientists would expect if the magma arose from near the Earth’s molten core as has been thought for decades. Similar trails elsewhere also have been attributed to mantle plumes. In particular, noted Christiansen, the spectacular chain of volcanic islands that stretches from the Big Island of Hawaii, northwest along the Hawaiian island chain, is commonly considered compelling evidence for a plume and is the “textbook” example of how mantle plumes “work” to create volcanic islands and other geologic features above the Earth’s surface.

“If Yellowstone can leave a volcano trail without a plume, then other hotspots might also,” Christiansen said. “The implication is that Hawaii may not be underlain by a plume after all. A group of U.S. universities is conducting a major seismic experiment there in the fall of 2003 that may settle the question for once and all.”

_ekil 6.4

Bkz. 6.3.2.5 (b) Bkz. 6.3.2.5 (a)

Load Paths Should be Continuous.Discontinuities and AsymmetriesShould be Avoided

What are Quantifiable Elements of Risk ?

• Hazard: Distribution of (Natural) Events in Time, Space, and by Magnitude. Examples: Expected Flood Height reached along a River During Different Exposure Times (100-year or 500-year Flood). Expected Shaking Level Reached at a given Site due to Earthquakes (e.g. • US Seismic Hazard Maps).

• Assets : Lives, Possessions, Means of Production, Built Structures and Infrastructures; Social Structures; Cultural Values. Some Assets are measurable in $$$, others are not.

• FragilityFragility : A measure of fractional loss of the valued asset, given the hazard. Typically a number between 0 and 1. Zero means total loss for the given hazard level, 1 means there was no damage at all.

------ So what is Vulnerability? A less readily quantifiable, more complex, and socially more comprehensive term than any of the above terms can express, individually or in any combination. It describes the social conditioning that allows extreme natural events to become disasters.

How can a Community Manage Risk

Risk = SUM (Hazard x Asset x Fragility)

1. One can try to minimize Risk, i.e. minimize the Sum over the products of these three factors. Options are:

• reduce the hazard by engineering (e.g. dykes, levees) (Note: dangerous when ultimate event strikes)

• do not locate fragile, expensive assets on hazardous sites; i.e. leave hazardous sites less developed (land use planning and zoning)

• reduce fragility by building hazard-resilient structures - (construction codes and their enforcement)

Risk Management:Risk Management:

Reduce Risk Exposure: Risk = ∑ (Hazard x Assets x Fragility) • Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous Zones. • Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning, Regulations & Codes. • Evaluate Hazard at the Appropriate Probability Level. • Tails of Probability Distributions -> Extreme Catastrophes. • Reduce Fragility, Increase Toughness & Redundancy, Retrofit. Emergency Response Planning & Preparedness: Minimize

Post-Event Losses, Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction: Opportunity for

including Mitigation. Risk Distribution:Insurance, Assistance & Mutual Support

Networks; National/International Public/Private Aid

2. By distributing (catastrophic) Risk to others via insurance or other financial or bartering arrangements.

• Simplest Form of RISK Definition in Engineering:

• Risk = Sum ( Hazard x Assets x Fragility)

• Hazard: For a Point on Earth: Hazard Curve: Annual Exceedance Probability vs. Hazard Variable; e.g. for Earthquakes: Peak Ground Acceleration - PGA (%g) used by Engineers in Context of Building Code, Design of Nukes etc..

At Given Annual Exceedance Probability:

1. PGA Can be Mapped.

2. Can Be Deaggregated

• Assets: Lives, Built Assets, Cultural Assets ($$$)

• Fragility: Variable from 0 (no loss) to 1 (total loss) for each

type of structure and for each hazard value; often poorly

known.

Risk ($): Risk Curves, Annualized Losses, Probable

Maximum Losses, Scenario Event Losses

Risk Management:Risk Management:

Reduce Risk Exposure: Risk = ∑ (Hazard x Assets x Fragility) • Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous Zones. • Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning, Regulations & Codes. • Evaluate Hazard at the Appropriate Probability Level. • Tails of Probability Distributions -> Extreme Catastrophes. • Reduce Fragility, Increase Toughness & Redundancy, Retrofit. Emergency Response Planning & Preparedness: Minimize

Post-Event Losses, Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction: Opportunity for

including Mitigation. Risk Distribution:Insurance, Assistance & Mutual Support

Networks; National/International Public/Private Aid

GENERALIZED CONCLUSIONS FOR GLOBAL MEGACITIES: 1. Urbanization Increases Risk on a Global Scale.

2. Hazard is probabilistically quantifiable on a global scale with current data. Microzonation of hazard requires detailed local geotechnical data for equ., and topography for storm surges.

3. Risk/Loss Modeling is well developed but needs full inventory of built assets and their fragilities. Ok for NY, but on a global scale, population and per capita income may have to suffice initially as a proxy for full asset inventory.

4. Vulnerability is a complex quantity, strongly tied to lack of redundancy; in developing countries tied to poverty, income- inequities, and the exclusion of large sectors of civil society from the political process. Hard to quantify even just for a single hazard. While there may be common causes for vulnerability to different hazards, vulnerability has hazard- specific aspects. 5. Risk Management: Pre-Event Preparedness & Mitigation are as important as Post-Event Recovery. Remaining Risk can be Distributed via Insurance. RM Requires strong Institutions and Resources not readily available in developing countries. This is a major development issue of global scale.

Constitutional - Legal & Political Framework of Disaster / Emergency Management (EM)

Different Nations have Different Systems. Generallythey reflect the Political System of the Country.

• Pluralistic Representative Democracies (checks & balances): Civil Organizations Tend to Dominate. EM Professionals. EM can be either Centralized - or Federalized. Legal Framework for Cooperation between Federal, State and Local Organizations. Bottom Up?

• Semi-Democracies, Oligarchies & Dictatorships: Military Organizations Tend to Dominate. Patronage Jobs. EM Typically Centralized, or Weak to Non-Existent (ad hoc). Legal Framework from Strong to Murky. Top down.

Note: Over-simplifications, Exceptions & Shades of Grey abound !!

Constitutional, Legal & Organizational IssuesIn the US: Public Safety is Primarily State Responsibility.Principle of Local over External Responsibility: Securing of Progressively Outward Radiating Assistance if Needed.Emergency Management Offices (EMO’s) exist at different Levels: Towns, Counties, State. Federal Role in Disaster Response is Regulated by Stafford Act: www.fema.gov/library/stafact.htm.

The Stafford Act regulates the following Basic Federal Functions:1. US Disaster Preparedness Assistance to States2. Major Disaster & Emergency Assistance Administration3. Major Disaster Assistance Programs4. Emergency Assistance Programs5. Emergency Preparedness6. Miscellaneaous (Islands , …..).

A State Governor must ask the US President to declare a Federal Disaster before feds via FEMA can get into picture. President / FEMA can call upon all other federal agencies to pitch in for pre-designated or special tasks: National Guard (dual state & federal role), US Army Corps of Engineers, CDC, EPA, …...

Contin. US - ICS: Organizational Participation during an Incident

Typical Roster of Organizations (in the US): During Major Emergencies their Representatives Assemble at an Incident Command Post (ICP), while their Operational Teams work in the Field (use examples from 9/11 WTC “ground zero” operations):

• EMO’s (e.g. Mayor’s EMO, NYSEMO, FEMA, … ); 9/11: NYC OEM lost its ICP• Police, Fire, Ambulance Services, EPA/DEPs, • Health Services (CDC, State, Local, Private, Red Cross)• Utilities : Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer, Sanit., Communication • Transportation : DoTs, HWD, Commuter Serv., MTA’s, Airprts., FAA• Knowledge and Information Agencies : NOAA, NWS, USGS, …..• Social Services & NGO’s: American Red Cross (Congr. Mandate), Schools, Religious Organiz., Salvation Army, Mennonite……, Caritas, …• Media : Radio, TV, Cable, Printed Media - in separate briefing room• Technical Organiz.: DDC, Army Corps of Engineers, DOE, EPA,

Forest Service (Forest Fire Fighters, ……. )• Public Safety: Police, FBI, Coast Guard, …..• Powers of Last Resort: National Guard, Armed Forces, • in the US: Help from outside the US ????

Contin. US - ICS: Organizational Participation during an Incident

Typical Roster of Organizations (in the US): During Major Emergencies their Representatives Assemble at an Incident Command Post (ICP), while their Operational Teams work in the Field (use examples from 9/11 WTC “ground zero” operations):

• EMO’s (e.g. Mayor’s EMO, NYSEMO, FEMA, … ); 9/11: NYC OEM lost its ICP• Police, Fire, Ambulance Services, EPA/DEPs, • Health Services (CDC, State, Local, Private, Red Cross)• Utilities : Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer, Sanit., Communication • Transportation : DoTs, HWD, Commuter Serv., MTA’s, Airprts., FAA• Knowledge and Information Agencies : NOAA, NWS, USGS, …..• Social Services & NGO’s: American Red Cross (Congr. Mandate), Schools, Religious Organiz., Salvation Army, Mennonite……, Caritas, …• Media : Radio, TV, Cable, Printed Media - in separate briefing room• Technical Organiz.: DDC, Army Corps of Engineers, DOE, EPA,

Forest Service (Forest Fire Fighters, ……. )• Public Safety: Police, FBI, Coast Guard, …..• Powers of Last Resort: National Guard, Armed Forces, • in the US: Help from outside the US ????

International Issues (2):

Organizations Involved (1): United Nations and AffiliatesUNDP, e.g. Emergency Response Division

http://www.undp.org/erd/OCHA - Off. for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs ;

Disaster Response Branch: http://www.reliefweb.int/ocha_ol/index.html

Integrated Regional Information Networks:http://www.reliefweb.int/IRIN/index.phtml

HCfR - UN High Commissioner for Refugees http://www.unhcr.ch/

UNEP http://www.unep.org/UN ISDR - International Strategy for Disaster Reduction:

http://www.unisdr.org/UNICEF: http://www.unicef.org/WFP - World Food Program

http://www.wfp.org/index.htmWHO: http://www.who.int/ PAHO: http://www.paho.org/

International Issues (3)

Organizations Involved (2) : Semi-GOs and NGOsIFRC - International Federation of Red Cross and Red

Crescent Societies http://www.ifrc.org/OXFAM, CARITAS, ……. NGO’s both religious and secular.

Development Banks: WB Worldbank http://www.worldbank.org/IMF http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/conflict.htm ADB Asian DB http://www.adb.org/ AFDB African DB http://www.afdb.org/ IDB InterAmerican http://www.iadb.org/ (see PDF s97is.dll)ECHO: European Commission Humanitarian Aid Office :

http://europa.eu.int/comm/echo/index_en.html

USAID / OFDA: http://www.usaid.gov/hum_response/ofda/Useful Web-Links: http://www.cred.be/centre/links.htm

Temperature rises hint at earthquake prediction Semiconductor action and and Heat Spiketemperature rises appear to precede tremors. The idea could also explain the weird pre-quake behavior of weather, radio transmissions, animals and even people.

Earthquakes begin several kilometres below the surface and electromagnetic waves cannot travel far through dense rocks. But, in 2000, Freund showed that compressing a rock can lead to positive charges inside. These can form a charged region of rock that migrates to the surface at the rate of about 100 to 300 metres per second, where it can ionise the air - possibly explaining strange pre-quake phenomena sometimes reported.A positive charge near the surface would draw negatively charged atmospheric particles closer to the Earth and Freund and Ouzounov think the combining of the charged particles releases infrared radiation. They believe they can detect this IR signal via weather satellites about two to five days before a quake happens.

frequent", releases of earth energy building up in the conflicting plates does prevent an earthquake that would release suddenly a much more concentrated burst of energy.but even that is subject to question. since a series of smaller earthquakes could be just a pre-cursor to an unstoppable much larger one -where the plate movement is at a much faster speed than normal, and the smaller advance earthquakes just not able to keep up releasing enough energy, until that cycle ends with a huge earthquake.