New Economic and

Demographic Normals

James W. Hughes, Dean 2016

Dr. Kevorkian

Late 20th Century Go-Go Economy

Early 21st Century No-Go/Slow Go Economy

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated)

(24,800)

622,400

(260,100)

577,300

(58,200)

127,000

(259,000)

211,900

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present

Nu

mb

er o

f J

ob

s

7 Months

83 Months

37 Months

104 Months

19 Months

66 Months

32 Months

Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010

Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015

63 Months

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated)

(24,800)

622,400

(260,100)

577,300

(58,200)

127,000

(259,000)

211,900

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present

Nu

mb

er o

f J

ob

s

7 Months

83 Months

37 Months

104 Months

19 Months

66 Months

32 Months

Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010

Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015

63 Months

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated)

(24,800)

622,400

(260,100)

577,300

(58,200)

127,000

(259,000)

211,900

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present

Nu

mb

er o

f J

ob

s

7 Months

83 Months

37 Months

104 Months

19 Months

66 Months

32 Months

Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010

Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015

63 Months

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

New Jersey has a long history of adapting to a changing

economic climate. From its colonial origins to the present day,

New Jersey's economy has continuously and successfully

confronted the challenges and uncertainties of technological

and demographic change, placing the state at the forefront of

each national and global economic era. Based on James W.

Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca’s nearly three-decade-long

Rutgers Regional Report series, New Jersey’s Postsuburban

Economy presents the issues confronting the state and brings

to the forefront ideas for meeting these challenges.

Suffice it to say,

“A view of New Jersey’s past, present and future economy

by two of the state’s most respected scholars. Should be a

must-read for anybody hoping to shape future economic policy.”

—Governor Thomas H. Kean, Governor of New Jersey, 1982-1990

"If you are interested in New Jersey's economy, its history, its recent and

present condition, and knowledgeable projections as to where it's going,

Jim Hughes and Joe Seneca should be your go-to guys. Their clear and

easy-to-read writing style makes economics almost enjoyable."

—James J. Florio, governor of New Jersey, 1990-1994

Link to the Rutgers University Press website

bit.ly/nj-postsuburban

The Great Era of Suburbanization Past

A Postsuburban Population Geography

FIGURE 2

Counties with Population Decline, 2010-2014

FIGURE 2

Counties with Population Decline, 2010-2014

A Postsuburban Economic Geography

Reversal of Economic Fortune

New Jersey and New York City Employment

1950-2004

1,656.8

3,999.1

3,468.2 3,550.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1950 2004

Th

ou

san

ds

NJ

NYC

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Ratio NJ/NYC: 0.48 1.13

New Jersey and New York City: Employment Change

1950-2004

New Jersey +2,342,300

New York City +81,800

New Jersey and New York City: Employment Change

1950-2004

New Jersey +2,342,300

New York City +81,800

2004-2014

New Jersey -36,900

New York City +552,200

New Jersey and New York City Employment

1950-2014

1,656.8

3,999.1 3,962.2

3,468.2 3,550.0

4,102.2

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1950 2004 2014

Th

ou

san

ds

NJ

NYC

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisitcs.

Ratio NJ/NYC: 0.48 1.13 0.97

A Shrinking Outer Suburban Office Footprint

The Great 1980s Office Building Boom

The Official New Jersey State Bird

1980’s Official State Bird

Suburban Office Agglomeration

Merck – White House Station

Merck

Lessons for the Garden State from the Nutmeg State

Aetna – Middletown, Connecticut

DECONSTRUCTION

A New

Suburban Office

Normal?

• Maturing Baby Boom – Redefining Maturity/Exiting the Workforce

• GEN Y/Millennials/Echo-Boomers – Redefining the Workforce/Workplace

The Greatest Age Structure Transformation in History

Inter-Generational Tensions in the Workplace

The Largest Generation in U.S. History

Resizing in the Housing Market

BABY BOOM: REINVENTING MATURITYa

The 2016 Calamity

by Boom Reinventing Maturity

• First Boomers are turning 70 years of age

• All Boomers will be between 52 and 70 years of age

• More than one-half of all Boomers will be in their

60s

We will not fade away quietly!

Source: Christian Science Monitor

Echo Boomers: 1977-1995oom: Millennials: 1980-2000

Generation “Y” Today: We Want 24-7 LWP Environments

The Digerati

• Joshua Bright for The New York Times

Home of the Edward J. Bloustein School