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The Netherlands of 2040

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Times Are a-Changin’

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Times Are a-Changin’

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New CPB Scenario Study

Question

How will we earn our daily bread in 2040?

Approach

Scenarios to deal with uncertainty

Answer

Smart people

Strong cities

Policy

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Specialisation of Work …

Brainstorm

Blueprint Prototype

Chips

Packaging

Retail

RetailRetail

Retail

Production

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Smart People

Specialisation

Communication technology …

… leads to unbundling of tasks …

… global knowledge exchange …

… and production by specialist workers

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Generalisation

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Smart people

... or generalisation

Mechanics masters more complex systems

Insurance agents with broad portfolio

Expert system to diagnose illness

Design programmes

Write your own emails

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Smart People

Specialisation

Communication technology …

… leads to unbundling of tasks …

… global knowledge exchange …

… and production by specialist workers

Generalisation

Information technology …

… bundles tasks …

… performed by autonomous workers

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Cities Are the Place to Be

Stockholm

Barcelona Tokyo

Dallas

Packaging

Retail

RetailRetail

Retail

Production

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Concentration of Economic Activity …

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Strong Cities

Concentration

Economies of scale …

… with face-to-face interactions …

… to develop new technologies

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… or Scattering of Economic Activity

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Strong Cities

Concentration

Economies of scale …

… with face-to-face interactions …

… to develop new technologies

Scattering

Networks of small cities …

… with excellent connections …

… facilitated by ICT

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Scattering

Concentration

GeneralisationSpecialisation

Two Uncertainties

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Four Scenarios

Scattering

Concentration

GeneralisationSpecialisation

Metropolitan Markets

Cosmopolitan Centres

Talent Towns

Egalitarian Ecologies

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Talent Towns

• Communication technology: specialists

• Interaction and surroundings: small cities

• Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges

• High incomes, yet high competition

• Low incomes under pressure

• Netherlands: business services

• Manufacturing to Asia

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Talent Towns

• Communication technology: specialists

• Interaction and surroundings: small cities

• Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges

• High incomes, yet high competition

• Low incomes under pressure

• Netherlands: business services

• Manufacturing to Asia

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Cosmopolitan Centers

• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based

• Communication: global division of tasks

• Cities: clusters of specialised activity

• Risk: other city takes over

• Substantial income inequality

• Examples of possible Dutch clusters:

• water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative

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Cosmopolitan Centers

• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based

• Communication: global division of tasks

• Cities: clusters of specialised activity

• Risk: other city takes over

• Substantial income inequality

• Examples of possible Dutch clusters:

• water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative

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Egalitarian Ecologies

• Information technology: generalists

• Product variation: local demand

• Medium-sized cities: quality

• Moderate growth of incomes:

• Limited technological progress

• Wealth to raw materials suppliers

• East and south of Netherlands flourish

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Egalitarian Ecologies

• Information technology: generalists

• Product variation: local demand

• Medium-sized cities: quality

• Moderate growth of incomes:

• Limited technological progress

• Wealth to raw materials suppliers

• East and south of Netherlands flourish

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Metropolitan Markets

• Bio- and nanotechnology break through

• Large firms: marketable applications

• Research centres and face-to-face contact

• Metropolis attracts firms and people

• Hinterland lags behind

• Large income inequality

• Netherlands large enough?

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Metropolitan Markets

• Bio- and nanotechnology break through

• Large firms: marketable applications

• Research centres and face-to-face contact

• Metropolis attracts firms and people

• Hinterland lags behind

• Large income inequality

• Netherlands large enough?

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The Magic Circle of Policymaking

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Attractors (A) and mobile production factors (M)

AMAMIdeas

0++++++Mobility

AAMMDemand

AMAMWorkers

MMEECCTT

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Policy making for the place of business

0NLEUEUInfra between cities

WorldNLEUNLRegulation across cities

+++++++City regulation

++++++0City infrastructure

MMEECCTT

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Connections and the structure of cities

localgloballocal and global

globalIdeas

Randstad++

ConnectedCondensedVirtualStructure

limitedcontinentalglobalglobalFinal goods

localnationallocal and global

continentalWorkers

MMEECCTT

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Wrapping Up

Smart people earn our income

Strong cities glue smart people together

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