noaa climate program chester j. koblinsky director, noaa climate program office the 29 th climate...
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NOAA Climate Program
Chester J. Koblinsky
Director, NOAA Climate Program Office
The 29th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
University of Wisconsin, Madison
October 20, 2004
Outline
• NOAA Climate Program Program
• Climate Program Office
• Climate Dynamics & Experimental Prediction Program
• Climate Prediction Program for the Americas
• Climate Variability and Prediction Program
NOAA Climate ProgramCCSP and NOAA goal structure
Climate Change Science Program
• Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate …. and improve understanding … of observed variability and change
• Improve quantification of the forces…
• Reduce uncertainty in projections….
• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of … ecosystems …
• … manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.
NOAA Climate Goal Structure
– Observations and Analysis
– Climate Forcing
– Climate Predictions and Projections
– Climate Impacts on Ecosystems
– Regional Decision Support
NOAA Climate Program
Management
NOAA Management
PPI NOAA Research
Climate Program Board
Climate Program Office
SAB
Climate Working Group
Scientific and programmatic advice
Program Manager chairs Board
All NOAA LO’s represented
Develops program plans and policies
Overall program management
Integration of climate activities across LO’s
Interface with CCSP 10
Climate Program OfficeFunctions
Programming
&
Planning
Research
&
Development
Transition Products
to &
Operations Services
Climate Program Office
Organization
Climate Assessments and Services Division
ClimateObservation
Division
ResearchProgramsDivision
Program andPlanningDivision
Administrative ServicesDivision
Director
Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction Program (CDEP)
Toward an Integrated, Requirement Based, and Products Driven Applied R&D Program
Program Manager, Ming Ji
CDEP Goals
Transition to Operations• Contributing to enhanced NWS intra-seasonal to
inter-annual climate forecast operations
Enhancing Products and Services• Contributing to enhanced NOAA climate products
and services
Observing System Evaluation• Provide feedbacks to climate observing system
CDEP Strategy
• Applied Research Centers (ARCs)– Mission oriented R&D efforts (including directed research)– Stable funding to enable long term R&D efforts– Unique capabilities– Close linkage with RISA (e.g., CSES, CDC, COAPS)
• A Competitive R&D Program– Research to Operations Transition: forecasts and applications product
development (CTB)– Climate model improvements (CPTs)– Observing system evaluation (annual report)– Host for other relevant NOAA and interagency efforts
• IRI– End-to-End climate prediction research and applications– Infrastructure for experimental prediction, forecast applications– International Prediction, Assessments, Applications
CDEP Priorities
• Transition to Operations• Baseline for seasonal forecast skill score (Seasonal Predictability)• Improved operational forecast models (CPTs) • Experimental Multi-model ensemble forecasts (CTB)
• Application Products and Services• Agriculture• Fire danger• Water resource management (Hydrological f’cst-wk2 to seasonal)• Energy• International applications
• Climate Observing System Evaluation• Annual NOAA climate observing system assessment reports
• Applied Research (Long term, all goals)• Regional models/down scaling for fcsts, assessments• Predictability on subseasonal to decadal time scales• Ocean/coupled data assimilation prospects/methodologies
Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)
Process Understanding to Advance Climate Services
Program Managers, Jin Huang & Mike Patterson
CPPA Goals
- Improve the understanding and model simulation of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes
- Determine the predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to-interannual time scales
- Advance NOAA’s operational climate forecast, monitoring, and analysis systems
- Develop climate-based hydrologic forecasting capabilities and decision support tools for water resource applications
CPPA Priorities
Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions- address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases, e.g., Eastern Pacific
Investigation of Climate (EPIC), stratus deck experiment (VOCALS)
Land-Atmosphere Interactions- develop land surface model and assimilation systems for use in climate forecast
models to understand and model land-atmosphere interactions- develop and evaluate high resolution regional climate models
Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions- evaluate and improve the coupled o-l-a modeling of the climate system, e.g., regional reanalysis, North American monsoon experiment (NAME), western mountain hydroclimate, drought predictability, monsoon experiment over South America (MESA)
Water Resource Applications- improve hydrologic forecasting- develop decision support tools
FY06 CPPA Thrust:
Drought Monitoring And Prediction
• Real-time and retroactive Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) provide soil moisture for monitoring and predicting drought;
• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and Western Mountain Climate Studies will improve climate/hydrologic forecasts in the West;
• Understanding and attribution of oceanic and land surface influences on drought processes;
• National Long-Range Hydrologic Prediction System will provide central guidance products for drought monitoring & prediction and water resource management
Climate Variability and Prediction Program (CLIVAR)
Predictability and Fundamental Prediction Capabilities
Program Manager, Jim Todd
U.S. CLIVAR• identify and understand the major patterns of climate variability on
seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales and evaluate their predictability;
• expand our capacity in short term (seasonal to interannual) climate predictability and search for ways to predict decadal variability;
• better document the record of rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluate the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future;
• evaluate and enhance the models used to predict climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition.
U.S. CLIVAR is a research program with several related goals:
• The CPT (Climate Process Team) is a new paradigm established by the U.S. CLIVAR program that brings together observationalists, theoreticians, small-scale modelers and scientists at the modeling centers to work closely together to improve parameterizations of a particular process in one or more IPCC-class models.
• Three “pilot” CPTs have been funded through an interagency announcement.
Climate Process Team
Low-latitude Cloud Feedbacks
on Climate Sensitivity CPTLead PI: Christopher S Bretherton, University of Washington
• Goal - To increase our understanding of tropical and subtropical cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity, and reduce the large uncertainty in GCM simulations of these feedbacks:
1. Diagnose in detail the reasons for different behavior of NCAR vs. GFDL low cloud distribution with 2xCO2
2. Try to constrain the relevant cloud feedbacks using current and historical data, especially the low cloud feedbacks relevant to (1).
3. Improve relevant GCM parameterizations using best available physics, focusing especially on cloud microphysics, shallow and deep cumulus convection, and cloud-topped PBLs.