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NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality NOAA-EPA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Forecast Capability:

Progress and PlansProgress and Plans

October 17, 2006October 17, 2006

Paula M. DavidsonPaula M. Davidson11, Nelson Seaman, Nelson Seaman11, Jeff McQueen, Jeff McQueen11, Rohit , Rohit MathurMathur1,21,2, Roland Draxler, Roland Draxler1, 1, Richard WaylandRichard Wayland22

11National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)22US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

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OutlineOutline

• Overview of Current Capability

• Progress in 2006 toward expanded capabilities

• Looking ahead

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Model Components: Linked numerical Model Components: Linked numerical prediction systemprediction systemOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputerOperationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer

NCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMMNCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM

NOAA/EPA community multiscale model for AQ: CMAQNOAA/EPA community multiscale model for AQ: CMAQ

Observational Input: Observational Input:

NWS real-time weather observationsNWS real-time weather observations

EPA emissions inventoryEPA emissions inventory

National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability End-to-End Operational Capability

AQI: Peak Jul 28AQI: Peak Jul 28

Gridded forecast guidance productsGridded forecast guidance productsOn NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA serversOn NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA servers

Updated 2x dailyUpdated 2x daily

Verification basisVerification basis

EPA/AIRNow compilation:EPA/AIRNow compilation:ground-level ozone observationsground-level ozone observations

Customer outreach/feedbackCustomer outreach/feedbackState&Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPAState&Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA

Public and Private Sector AQ constituentsPublic and Private Sector AQ constituents

EPA Monitoring NetworkEPA Monitoring Network

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Operational AQ forecast guidanceOperational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aqwww.weather.gov/aq

Further informationFurther informationwww.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_qualitywww.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_quality

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Experimental Products: Experimental Products:

Coast-to-coast Ozone, Smoke Forecast GuidanceCoast-to-coast Ozone, Smoke Forecast Guidance

www.weather.gov/aq-exprwww.weather.gov/aq-expr

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166

142

268 grid cells

259gridcells

Northeast“1x” Domain

East “3x” Domain

Testing Domain: Summer 2006Testing Domain: Summer 2006

Experimental: CONUS “5X”

442 grid cells

265gridcells

IOC “1x”

EUS “3X”

Operational: EUS “3x”

CONUS “5x” Domain

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Testing Summary Testing Summary Summer, 2006Summer, 2006

Ozone: Experimental testing beginning June, 2006 over CONUSOzone: Experimental testing beginning June, 2006 over CONUS– New WRF-CMAQ linkage, improved vertical coupling with New WRF-CMAQ linkage, improved vertical coupling with σσ-P adopted in-P adopted in

CMAQ/WRF CMAQ/WRF

– Updates to emissions (esp mobile and EGU sources)Updates to emissions (esp mobile and EGU sources)

– ACM mixing in cloudsACM mixing in clouds

Smoke: Experimental testing beginning March, 2006Smoke: Experimental testing beginning March, 2006– Fire Locations and verification based on satellite observationsFire Locations and verification based on satellite observations

– Fire emissions estimates from USFS (BlueSky)Fire emissions estimates from USFS (BlueSky)

– HYSPLIT/NAM transportHYSPLIT/NAM transport

Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluationsdataset for diagnostic evaluations

– CMAQ (aerosol option) CMAQ (aerosol option)

– Qualitative; underprediction consistent with missing source inputsQualitative; underprediction consistent with missing source inputs

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Preliminary Analysis of Ozone Predictions: Preliminary Analysis of Ozone Predictions: Summer, 2006Summer, 2006

Fraction Correct, 2006: 3X 8-hr avg 0.9960.9760.994 0.976 0.985

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

5/1/2006 5/31/2006 6/30/2006 7/30/2006 8/29/2006 9/28/2006Day

Fraction Correct

Target

Monthly Cum

Fraction Correct, 2006: 5X/East 8-hr avg

0.9960.9910.996

0.980

0.987

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

5/1/2006 5/31/2006 6/30/2006 7/30/2006 8/29/2006 9/28/2006Day

Fraction Correct

Target

Monthly Cum

Fraction Correct, 2006: 5X 8-hr avg

0.992

0.986

0.975

0.994 0.975

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

5/1/2006 6/1/2006 7/2/2006 8/2/2006 9/2/2006 10/3/2006Day

Fraction Correct

Target

Monthly Cum

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Testing Challenges: Testing Challenges: Summer, 2006Summer, 20061. Comparison of Operational and Experimental testing:Before Isoprene correction for 5X

E US (3X) vs. CONUS (5X):After Isoprene correction for 5X

Ozone Episode in Eastern US: Ozone Episode in Eastern US: July 16-19, 2006July 16-19, 2006

July 17

July 16

July 20

July 18 July

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Experimental Testing Summary: OzoneExperimental Testing Summary: OzoneSummer, 2006Summer, 2006

Diagnosing and addressing issues not uncovered with Diagnosing and addressing issues not uncovered with retrospective testingretrospective testing • WRF implementation into NAM: June 20WRF implementation into NAM: June 20

Relative to Eta: Similar performance in Eastern US, but cooler, wetter in Western US Relative to Eta: Similar performance in Eastern US, but cooler, wetter in Western US Lower surface O3Lower surface O3

– WRF upgrade/correction: August 15WRF upgrade/correction: August 15

Increased mixing: more vertical mixing in stable PBL , horizontal mixing in complex Increased mixing: more vertical mixing in stable PBL , horizontal mixing in complex terrain (mountains and along coast)terrain (mountains and along coast)

• Correction impacts: localized; more diffuse O3 gradientsCorrection impacts: localized; more diffuse O3 gradients

• Operational (3X) ozone: WRF-Post Processor. Operational (3X) ozone: WRF-Post Processor.

T-Interpolation (vertical; in WRF-post) error T-Interpolation (vertical; in WRF-post) error Slightly higher ozone Slightly higher ozone

• Corrected July 28. Impact: slightly reduced surface O3Corrected July 28. Impact: slightly reduced surface O3

• Experimental (5X) ozone: PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections Experimental (5X) ozone: PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections

Experimental (5X) Ozone and Developmental Aerosols: Biogenic VOCs incorrectly Experimental (5X) Ozone and Developmental Aerosols: Biogenic VOCs incorrectly underestimated underestimated Much lower surface O3 Much lower surface O3

• Corrected August 5. Impact: Much increased surface O3Corrected August 5. Impact: Much increased surface O3

• (3X and 5X) PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections(3X and 5X) PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections

Some emissions components left from 2005; numerics: (arrays undefined, Jacobian error)Some emissions components left from 2005; numerics: (arrays undefined, Jacobian error)

• Corrected August 5; September 5. Minor (localized) impactsCorrected August 5; September 5. Minor (localized) impacts

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HYSPLIT

Analysis

Sample Smoke Evaluation - April 13, 2006 Sample Smoke Evaluation - April 13, 2006 NAM/HYSPLIT 1-d Forecast & NAM/HYSPLIT 1-d Forecast & HMS AnalysisHMS Analysis

12 -14 UTC

HYSPLIT

24-hr Forecast

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WRF-HYSPLIT 24-h Smoke Predictions:WRF-HYSPLIT 24-h Smoke Predictions:Preliminary Evaluation, 2006Preliminary Evaluation, 2006

14 September 2006 WRF-HYSPLIT 24h (blue)

vs HMS (orange)

Preliminary Verification statistics: FMS

Threshold: 1ug/m3 in Column

Initial target: 10%

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Preliminary Aerosol Predictions: Preliminary Aerosol Predictions: Summer, 2006Summer, 2006

July 25, 2006

5X Aerosol 06Z, Hit Accuracy: Daily Verification: 1-hr Avg Full 5X Domain

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

21-Jul 28-Jul 4-Aug 11-Aug 18-Aug 25-Aug 1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep 6-Oct

Fraction Correct

Target

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Testing Summary Testing Summary Summer, 2006Summer, 2006

Ozone: Extensive retrospective testing with developmental NAM-CMAQ Ozone: Extensive retrospective testing with developmental NAM-CMAQ system during Winter and Spring still left some surprises:system during Winter and Spring still left some surprises:

• Experimental (5X) ozone: Experimental (5X) ozone:

– Large under-predictions especially in the west; systematically lower ozone than operational Large under-predictions especially in the west; systematically lower ozone than operational (3) in East(3) in East

• Operational (3X) ozone:Operational (3X) ozone:

– Some over-predictions for cool, cloudy conditionsSome over-predictions for cool, cloudy conditions

Smoke: Experimental testing providing basis for systematic near-real Smoke: Experimental testing providing basis for systematic near-real time evaluations with satellite observations:time evaluations with satellite observations:

– Results promising for predicted smoke transport, compared to HMS smoke analyses Results promising for predicted smoke transport, compared to HMS smoke analyses (independent, analyst-prepared) (independent, analyst-prepared)

– Development of objective smoke analyses for near-real time verification nearly completeDevelopment of objective smoke analyses for near-real time verification nearly complete

Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations:diagnostic evaluations:

• Underprediction common; consistent with missing source inputsUnderprediction common; consistent with missing source inputs

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National AQF Capability:National AQF Capability:Looking aheadLooking ahead

Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ) over CONUS (near-term)CMAQ) over CONUS (near-term)

• Improving day-to-day performance, especially in the westImproving day-to-day performance, especially in the west

• Transitioning experimental products to operationsTransitioning experimental products to operations

Expanded products to be tested:Expanded products to be tested:

• Ozone: Ozone:

– Further development: to more closely couple AQ with WRF weather output; Further development: to more closely couple AQ with WRF weather output; examine impacts of vertical resolution, vertical mixing treatments, horizontal examine impacts of vertical resolution, vertical mixing treatments, horizontal boundary conditions…boundary conditions…

– Testing over all 50 statesTesting over all 50 states

• Particulate matter components:Particulate matter components:

– Smoke from large fires: objective verification baseline; transition to Smoke from large fires: objective verification baseline; transition to operationsoperations

– Aerosols predicted from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: Aerosols predicted from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysiscontinued development/testing/analysis

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National Air Quality Forecast Capability:National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Phased GrowthPhased Growth

Early Implementations: 1-day forecast Early Implementations: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone guidance for ozone Developed and deployed initially for Developed and deployed initially for

Northeastern US, September 2004Northeastern US, September 2004

Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005

Near-Term targets:Near-Term targets:

Implement ozone guidance over CONUS: Summer 2007Implement ozone guidance over CONUS: Summer 2007

Deploy Nationwide (AK & HI) target: by 2009Deploy Nationwide (AK & HI) target: by 2009

Longer range (within 10 years):Longer range (within 10 years):

Develop and implement capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) Develop and implement capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) – Particulate size Particulate size << 2.5 microns 2.5 microns

• Data assimilation for air qualityData assimilation for air quality

• Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hoursExtend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours

• Include broader range of significant pollutantsInclude broader range of significant pollutants

2005: O2005: O33

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AppendixAppendix

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National AQF Capability Status National AQF Capability Status October, 2006October, 2006

Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ):Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally (WRF-CMAQ):

• Eastern US. 2X daily, 12km grid resolution, hourly predictions, through Eastern US. 2X daily, 12km grid resolution, hourly predictions, through midnight next day. Ground-level ozone concentrationsmidnight next day. Ground-level ozone concentrations

– On NOAA/NWS servers: On NOAA/NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aqwww.weather.gov/aq

– On EPA’s AIRNow website, displayed as AQ Index valuesOn EPA’s AIRNow website, displayed as AQ Index values

– Eta was replaced in the NAM by WRF(NMM) in June, 2006 Eta was replaced in the NAM by WRF(NMM) in June, 2006

– Achieving performance targets for accuracy, reliability Achieving performance targets for accuracy, reliability

Expanded products being tested in FY06:Expanded products being tested in FY06:

• Ozone: Ozone:

CONUS domain, CONUS domain, experimentally available:experimentally available: from June, 2006 from June, 2006

– Further developmental work to couple AQ more closely with WRF weather outputFurther developmental work to couple AQ more closely with WRF weather output

• Particulate matter components:Particulate matter components:

Smoke from large fires, Smoke from large fires, experimentally available (CONUS):experimentally available (CONUS): from March 2006 from March 2006

Transport prediction; qualitative. USFS fire emissions, passive transport.Transport prediction; qualitative. USFS fire emissions, passive transport.

Aerosols produced/transported; sources from anthropogenic emissions in climatologic Aerosols produced/transported; sources from anthropogenic emissions in climatologic inventories; inventories; in developmental testing (CONUS): from June, 2006in developmental testing (CONUS): from June, 2006