NOAA operational ocean modelingA joint NWS – NOS – IOOS enterprise

Ming Ji NOAA/NCEP/OPCFrank Aikman III NOAA/NOS/CSDLHendrik L. Tolman NOAA/NCEP/EMC

Background

2004 Science Advisory Board and NOAA response

• A three-level system

• Global and basin scale operational Backbone Capability at NCEP (partnership with Navy)

• On NOAA operational super computers

• Coastal Operational Ocean Backbone Capability at NOS, integrated with NCEP effort

• Transitioning to NOAA operational super computers

• Operational local modeling at IOOS Regional Associations

• RA Operational modeling to adhere to NOAA standards

History

Louis Uccellini and Ming Ji at previous MARACOOS meeting (Fall 2012)

Strategic Approach in Ocean Modeling

• Strategic alignment with Navy on Global Ocean model development

• Strategic alignment with NOS on coastal model development

• Strategic partnership with the IOOS community

• Linking backbone to local modeling for applications/services

• Standardization, realtime coastal/marine/biological data flow

• Community modeling and O2R

• Engage private sector through IOOS RAs for a broad range of local service delivery

From the whiteboard …

There are already many models in place, but particularly the interaction with the IOOS RAs still needs to be worked out in many details.

SAB level: I II IIIAtmosphere GFS

GEFSNAMSREF

HRRRWRF????

Ocean RTOFS (HYCOM)CFS (MOM4)

ROMSAdcirc

FVCOM…..

Many

Waves WAVEWATCH III(det. + ensemble)

WAVEWATCH IIISWAN

NWPS

Area: Global Regional Coastal/Local

System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18

GEFS T254 (55 km) 0 to 8-d T574 SL (35 km) 0 to 16-d T1148 SL (17 km) 0 to 10-d

T190 (70 km) 8 to 16-d T574 SL (35km) 10 to16-dT574 SL (35km) 16 to 32-d (new request)

20 Members @ 42 Vertical Levels

20 Members @ 64 Vertical Levels

20 Members @ 64 Vertical Levels

Semi-LagrangianEnKF integrated with ETR for initial perturbationsFull stochastic physics

NEMS, coupled oceanMME (multi-model ensemble)Extended to week 3 & 4

Estimated compute

factor

120 nodes for 1-hour 2.5x – 300 nodes for 1-hour

Note: uniform resolution for this configuration is to take advantage of Semi-Lagrangian model (saving computation cost for SL if the resolution is higher).

10x – 3000 nodes for 1-hour

400 nodes for 1 hour (new item)

1. Need additional resource to support for full resolution out to 16 days (20%)

2. Need additional resource to support higher vertical resolution (L128 – 2x)

GEFS Evolution To 2018

System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18NAEFS NCEP GEFS 21 members NCEP GEFS 21 members NCEP GEFS 21 members

CMC GEFS 21 members CMC GEFS 21 members CMC GEFS 21 members

FNMOC GEFS 20 members

FNMOC GEFS 21 members FNMOC GEFS 21 members

1. Exchange 90 variables

2. 1*1 degree globally3. Every 6 hrs, out to

16 days

1. Exchange ~100 variables2. Additional 0.5*0.5 degree

for selected variables, 3. Every 3 hours out to 8

days

1. Exchange 100+ variables2. Exchange 0.25*0.25 degree

for selected variables3. Coupling with ocean, and

extended to 32 days4. Additional every 6 hours

from 16 to 32 days

1. Bias correction2. Downscaling3. NAEFFS

probabilistic products

Expand more variables for1. Bias correction2. Downscaling3. NAEFFS probabilistic

products

More statistical post-processing for week 3 & 4 forecast

Estimated compute

factor

10 nodes for 1-hour

Time window – immediately follow GEFS finished

1.5x – 15 nodes for 1-hour 8x – 120 nodes for 1-hour

NAEFS Evolution To 2018

System Current Q2FY14 Q1 FY18

SREF 21 members @ 16 km 35 levelsEvery 6 hours to 84 hr

20 members @ 12 km 35 levelsEvery 6 hours to 84 hr

20 members @ 12 km 50/60 levels with nests at 3kmSome are 18-60 hr or 18-84 hr extensions of HRRRE members

NAM 12 km North America parent to 84 hrFixed nests CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR at 4/6/3/3 km run to 60 hrPlaceable FireWx nest 1.33/1.5 km to 36 hr

12 km North America parent to 84hrFixed nests CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR all run at 3 kmPlaceable/movable nest 1.5 km to 36 hr

ENSEMBLE of runs:12 km North America parent ENSEMBLE of 3 km runs CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR to Placeable/movable nest 1.5 km to 36 hr

Every 6 hours to 36/60/84 hours

Every 6 hours to 36/60/84 hours

Hourly to 18 hr with extensions for SREF & Every 6 hours control member extended to 36/60/84 hours for NAM

HRRR/HRRRE

3 km CONUS ENSEMBLE of 3 km runs ARW for CONUS & AlaskaNMMB for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR & FireWx

Hourly to 15 hours Hourly to 18 hours

Mesoscale

System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18

CFS 9 month forecast 9 month forecast 9 month forecast

Atmosphere: 100km, L64 Atmosphere: 100 km, L64 Atmosphere: 35 km, L128

Ocean: 0.5°, 40 levels Ocean: 0.5°, 40 levels Ocean: 0.25°, 60 levels

Waves: none Waves: none Waves 0.5°

4 members per day (120 per month)

4 members per day (120 per month)

4 members per day (120 per month)

ECMWF 7 month forecast 7 month forecast 7 month forecast

Atmosphere: 50 km, L91 Atmosphere: 50 km, L91 Atmosphere: 50 km, L91

Ocean: 1°, 40 levels Ocean: 1°, 40 levels Ocean: 1°, 40 levels

Waves: 0.5° Waves: 0.5° Waves: 0.5°

51 members per month (all run on first of month)

51 members per month (all run on first of month)

51 members per month (all run on first of month)

Seasonal Climate

NCEP

Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)

• Based on community HYCOM model.• Strong collaboration with Navy.

• Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP).• GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle).

• Timeline:• Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVOCEANO

(NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO).• FY2014-15: full initialization at NCEP.

• Developing agreement with NRL on NCODA.

RTOFS

Presently five major efforts:• Eddy resolving ocean modeling.• Eddy resolving ocean initialization.

• Coupled modeling for hurricanes.

• Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS.

• Episodic tracers (with shelf life)

• All RTOFS models presently based on HYCOM• RTOFS represents line of products.

RTOFS-GlobalRTOFS-AtlanticOperational 2005

Operational 10/25/2011

RTOFS-HWRFLive testing

RTOFS-NEMSUnder development

RTOFS-ET-PacOperational 07/24/2012

RTOFS-Global

Subsystem Q2FY14 Q1FY18Global Extend forecast to 8 days, OSIP

output, improved coastal forcing. Add DA on 00z cycle.

Extend lead time, ice and wave coupling, improved DA (same resolution)

Estimated compute factor

2x 4x

Atlantic Re-initialize, go to 3km grid Improve physics and assimilation, resource neutral, possible low-resolution ensemble.

Estimated compute factor

1x of global 1.5x of global

East Pacific, West Pacific &

Alaska

New models, compatible with Atlantic

Estimated compute factor

3 times 1.5x of global

HWRF Up to 30% of coupled HWRF

NEMS Depending on GFS/CFS approaches

Tracers Will discontinue early 2014 Depending on disasters...

Estimated compute factor

0x 0.1x

RTOFS (HYCOM) Evolution To 2018

NCEP

Future RTOFS (2015-2018) Summary

Global model at 1/12 degree resolution Regional models for Arctic, North Atlantic, East Pacific and

possibly West Pacific at 3km nominal resolution (based on NCEP user requirements)

Intend to go to ensemble based systems by 2018 depending on computer resources (particularly for ice)

Full coupling (Atmos-Ocean-Wave-Ice) particularly in ice zones

System Current Q2FY14 Q1FY18Bay & Coastal

Ocean-Forecast Systems

GLOFS, CBOFS, TBOFS, DBOFS,

CREOFS, etc.

Expand from 13 to 17 OFS's (San Francisco, NE and NW Gulf of Mexico, Cook Inlet)

Expand from 17 to 22 OFS's (Gulf of Maine, Mississippi River, Huron/Erie, West Coast, East Coast)

Estimated compute

factor

2x 4x

ESTOFS Increase Atlantic nearshore resolution to 500 m and

increase number of ensemble members (from 5 to 10)

Increase Pacific nearshore resolution (to 500 m) and

number of ensemble members (5 to 10 members)

Estimated compute

factor

2 nodes 120 min 10x 2x

NOS Systems Evolution To 2018

IOOS

Partnership with IOOS at NWS & NOS

• Data standardization and management through IOOS:

• RTOFS models available in NetCDF on NOMADS

• This was a major change driven by IOOS requirements

• Critical Partner for real time coastal/marine/biological data flow

• Providing requirements for RTOFS

• E.g., resolution, accuracy, …

• NOS collaboration with the IOOS modeling community

• Develop, agree & adhere to community standards

• Includes frameworks, data flow, products

• Effectively leveraging Testbeds (e.g. IOOS COMT)

Summary

• The 3-level framework from SAB review

• Strategic partnerships are essential elements• Navy, NOS, IOOS community

• NOAA-IOOS RAs paradigm toward service delivery

• Issues/challenges for discussion• R2O-O2R: Connecting Backbone to local models

• Define operations

• How to run models (CONOPS)

• How to exchange data and information

• E.g., Standards

• Coordinate operations and service delivery• E.g., the Weather Enterprise

NOS

Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) for the Coastal and Estuarine Environment in NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS)

OUTLINEThe state of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems

• Requirements and geographic coverage• CBOFS, NGOFS and ESTOFS examples • OFS products & dissemination

The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)

• Objective: More efficient R&D, O&M

Challenges and Applications• Collaboration with the IOOS Ocean Modeling

Community • Coupled Model Systems

NOS

NOS Marine Modeling Requirements Develop a national network of operational hydrodynamic models

providing nowcasts and short-term (0 – 48 hr.) forecasts for:

Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability

Emergency response HAZMAT Search & Rescue Homeland Security

Environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecosystem applications Marine geospatial applications

Salinity

SST

Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS)CBOFS (2-D)

Operational 08/01 CBOFS (3-D) Operational 04/11

Currents Temp Salt

Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS)

NGOFS is the first NOS OFS to extend the model domain to US shelf waters to fill gaps between global/basin models and coastal/estuarine models.

NGOFS covers 6 NOS PORTS

• Computes surge with tides for forecasting and for coupling to WAVEWATCH III®

• Applies ADCIRC model– 254,565 nodes– Coastal resolution ≈ 3 km– Depth-averaged barotropic– 6-hr nowcast followed by 180-hr

forecast• Pacific model in development

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml

http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/

Atlantic Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)

Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water

levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations

Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds

Model data sets on NOAA’s WOC and CO-OPS Thredds Server Station/point netCDF files (6-minute output): Time series at selected stations Gridded model output netCDF files (hourly output)

Model visualization via nowCOAST GIS-Based Web Mapping Portal (WMS)

Users value usefulness, accessibility, reliability Outputs used by USCG, NOS/OR&R, ASA, etc. in real-time Web products used daily by coastal managers, maritime navigation and

emergency response communities. Reliability and timely delivery of products are most important.

NOS Coastal Operational Forecast System Products

REAL-TIME DATA

INGESTQA/QC(COMF)

OPERATIONALMODELS

(NOAA’s HPC)

FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE(water level, water temp, currents, & salinity)

PRODUCTS(web pages and digital pt. & gridded data)

FOR USERS

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

QA/QC(CORMS) 24 x 7

NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)

Individual Model

systems

Data Tank on WCOSS: • Atmospheric Forcing• Coastal Boundary Conditions• Riverine Fresh Water Inputs Products and archives

Linux Serverin CO-OPS

NOAA/NOS Coastal Modeling Challenges

Continued Collaboration with the IOOS Ocean Modeling Community• Develop, agree & adhere to community standards

• (e.g. frameworks; data flow; products)• Testbeds

• (e.g. the IOOS COMT)

Coupled Model Systems• Riverine-estuarine-regional/coastal-basin; • Hydrodynamic-wave; hydrodynamic-sediment transport• Physical-biogeochemical coupling (e.g. ecological; water quality; habitat)Forecast uncertainty estimation • Probabilistic approach/Ensemble averagingCoastal data assimilation techniques • HF Radar; coastal altimetry; IOOS data; etc.