NOAA’s National Weather Service: Evolving to Build a

Weather Ready Nation

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services March 6, 2017 1

Outline

• Prologue • Building a Weather-Ready Nation • Recent Successes • NWS Infrastructure • FY17 Budget/High Priority Items • Summary

2

Prologue • Sustaining the development of the

Weather and Water Enterprise • Building a Weather-Ready Nation –

partnerships with the federal/state/local/tribal emergency managers and other decision-makers.

[NWS support] has revolutionized the emergency

management community – from a reactive posture to proactive mitigation of impending extreme events.

3

The average person only sees the tip of the iceberg

National Weather Service Overview

$7 Billion Industry *

* Source: McKinsey and Company

4

5

The US Weather Enterprise (Industry, Gov, Academia) is the most successful and strongest in the world

1 NWS 2016 budget only (e.g., excludes NESDIS); 2 Wharton 2013 report “Today’s Forecast for the Weather Business” 3 Lazo et al. (2008) “300 Billion Served – Sources, Perceptions,

Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts” 4 Estimated from US variability of US GDP to weather and value of weather data to select industries – see appendix for details

$32B total value US households place on the weather information they receive3

estimated potential value of weather data to US industry4

…to save lives…

“The NWS’s key role has been to serve as the foundation for the

tremendous growth that the enterprise has experienced and will continue to

experience.” …..Enabling a thriving industry….

“The weather enterprise is a unique group. Almost none of us could exist

without the NWS and NOAA.”

$7B

~350

growing weather industry supported by the NWS

companies depend on the NWS to some extent2

….that unlocks economic value...

$13B

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

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What We Do

Provide weather, water, and seasonal data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy

MISSION of Today VISION for Tomorrow

A Weather-Ready Nation where society is prepared for and responds to weather and water events; where communities are “Ready, Responsive and Resilient”

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Framework for Change

• 2012 National Academies of Science (NAS) Reports

NAS highlighted the need for continuous change in the NWS and the

need to evaluate our function and structure

• 2013 National Academy for Public Administration (NAPA) Report

NAPA’s extensive stakeholder research revealed widespread

consensus that NWS needs to change in order to meet society’s

rapidly changing demands for impact-based weather information.

NAPA also found no stakeholder consensus for what to change, how to

change, or how fast to change. Basis for Evolve

NAPA recommended NWS establish a transparent process to govern

significant change, including extensive stakeholder engagement, to

build stakeholder trust, participation, and support in guiding change.

• Why now? What is motivating a need for change?

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Increasing Societal Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

4 out of 5 Americans live in counties that have been declared weather-related disaster areas

in the past six years*

Factors contributing to increased vulnerabilities

✓ Increasing population in vulnerable areas

✓ More infrastructure at risk to extreme events

✓ Signs of a changing climate

• Sea-Level Rise

Average Year

6 Atlantic Hurricanes

26,000 Severe Storms

1,300 Tornadoes

5,000 Floods

650 Deaths and $15B in Losses

Loss Events in the US (1980-2015)

*Source: Environment America

Meanwhile we are now predicting extreme events out to a week in advance! 9

“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”

Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to

extreme weather, water and climate events

Better forecasts and warnings Actionable environmental intelligence

Consistent products and services

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Involves the entire US Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER

NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather- and Water-Ready Nation

We have 4600+ WRN Ambassadors

Connecting forecasts to decisions

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Realizing the Full Value of Forecasts: Connecting Forecasts to Critical Decisions

Generating forecasts

and warnings

Connecting those forecasts & warnings with impacts (IDSS)

Realizing Intrinsic Value and

Mission Success

= “Impact-based Decision Support Services”

* Completing the Forecast, National Academies of Science, 2006

Provide the best hydrological and meteorological

forecasting in the world

Support partner decision making

before, during, and after events

Develop relationships and

know partner needs

Embed when

needed

Build trust

Explain uncertainty

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Increasing Need for Local IDSS

Low additional IDSS need Extreme additional IDSS need

Additional need for IDSS beyond what is provided today

▪ Every NWS office

serves partners

with additional

IDSS needs

▪ OWA Analysis

shows 94% of

partners are

local1 – must

leverage current

infrastructure

▪ Must maintain local

presence through

the current WFO

infrastructure - No

office closures

▪ The level of need

varies across

offices

▪ Partners will be

better served by

enhancing IDSS at

all locations and

levels of the

organization

Preliminary estimate of IDSS need vs current IDSS capacity by WFO1

Montana state EM

could benefit from co-

located fire expert

Port Authority of

NYC expressed

need for

additional support

CDC in Atlanta

interested in

additional support

Additional

opportunity

to work with

Flood Control

& Water

Districts

1 NWS IDSS core and deep partners identified through national training, data call, and review May – July 2016 SOURCE: OWA Strategic staffing team

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13 13 Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction

Ready, Responsive, Resilient

4600+ WRN Ambassadors

Multi-faceted Communication Strategy

Deep Relationships

Core Partners

Fully-Integrated Field Structure

through a Collaborative Forecast Process

Accurate & Consistent

Forecasts/Warnings

National Blend of Models: Forecast starting point

One NWS, One Dissemination Network

Pulling it all together to build a Weather-Ready

Nation and to accomplish

our mission to save lives and

property Social Science

NWS Employees Providing Impact-Based

Decision Support Services (IDSS)

Saving Lives and Property

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Recent Successes

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Recent Success Stories

• October 2015 South Carolina 20” Rain

• Central U.S. Post Christmas 2015 Storm

• January 2016 East Coast Blizzard

• March 2016 Flooding

• June 2016 Southwest Heat Wave

• Hurricane Matthew

• West Coast Storms and Flooding Winter 2016/2017

• New Orleans Tornadoes in February 2017

• February 2017 Northeast Blizzard

• Texas Wildfires in February 2017

Successful Weather, Water and Seasonal IDSS Provided to Local, State, Federal, and Tribal

Partners Before, During and After Events

Predicting extreme events 7-8 days in advance

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Medium range

products begin

identifying snowstorm

threat for the end of next

week

NWS offices begin briefing partners on

potential storm

Confidence increasing

Partner Coordination/

Briefings

Media interviews

Fed./state/local govts make critical

decisions before the snow begins

Blizzard Warnings Issued

1 pm: Press Briefing

Jan 19 Jan 15 - 18 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22

Partner Coordination/

Briefings

Blizzard Watches

Issued

Media interviews

Snow begins in the Mid-Atlantic

Snow forecast adjusted to

include NYC in Blizzard Warning

Schools/Govt Close Flights Canceled

Roads Closed

January 2016 Blizzard & Costal Storm: Connecting All of the Pieces

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January 2016 IDSS Example: Long Island Expressway comparison to 2013

2013 Snowstorm 2016 Snowstorm

The Past With NWS Impact-Based Decision Support Services

(IDSS) 17

Comparing the 1974 and 2011 Severe Weather Outbreaks

April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak

• 150 tornadoes across 13 states

• 6 F-5 tornadoes, 24 F-4

• Tornado Track Length: 2500 mi

• Tornado Time: 50 hours

• “Indications” provided night before

• Fatalities: 310-319

April 27-28, 2011 Super Outbreak

• ~200 tornadoes across 16 states

• 4 EF-5 tornadoes; 11 EF-4

• Tornado Track Length: 2500 mi

• Tornado Time: 50 hours

• Outbreak forecast 4-6 days prior

• Warning lead time ~ 24mins

• Fatalities: 316 18

Building a Weather Ready Nation: “A Vital Conversation” December 2011 Workshop in Norman, OK

Focus on the “last mile” – connecting forecasts & warnings to

decision-making:

• Assess and update warning dissemination strategy

• Integrate social and physical science to address: – Is the message delivered equal to the message received?

– Impact-based forecast & warnings for wide range of decision makers

• Improved outreach and education

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2017 East New Orleans Tornado

February 7, 2017

EF-3 strength

33 injuries, 0 fatalities

Track ~10 miles long

~1/3 mile wide

Warning Lead time of ~33 mins

• NWS Local Outreach and Preparedness activities over a 4-year period IDSS training (practice, practice, practice!), weather safety events, WRN Ambassadors, public training, media, school drills

• Deep relationships with Emergency Managers/WRN Ambassadors • Dissemination of forecasts and warnings

Wireless Emergency Alerts, Twitter, NWSChat, local media coverage

• Public awareness Daytime event, visual confirmation, schools sheltered

• Collaborative forecast preparations within NWS and the larger enterprise a success • IDSS provided days in advance of the tornado. 20

NWS Infrastructure

21

Establishing the Budget Structure Based on: The Forecast Process

Central Processing

Science & Technology Integration

Analyze, Forecast, & Support

Local Forecasts

Central Guidance

Observations Dissemination

22

Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction models

Today’s Weather Forecast

• Global Observations • ~2B/day

• 99.9% remotely senses, from satellites, radars, aircraft, buoys, radiosondes

• Data Assimilation & Modeling/Science • Earth System Model (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land,

Ice)

• Supercomputers • Computing: Primary/Backup each @ 2.8PF runs

with 99.9% reliability

• Forecaster Skill

Four Essential Components of the Prediction Enterprise

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NWS Across the Nation

Doppler Radars Automated Surface Observing Sites

Cooperative Observer Sites NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters

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Observations Buoy Networks

NESDIS Satellites

Auto. Surface Obs. System (ASOS)

Upper Air Network

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Computer Status/Model Implementation Supported through HFIP and Sandy Supplemental

Key Atmospheric Model Upgrades Complete:

• Jan 2015: Global Forecast System (GFS) upgraded – 13km out to 10d

• Jun 9, 2015: 2km HWRF

• Sep 2015: SREF, GEFS

• Mar 8, 2016: HIRESW implemented on Cray

• May 11, 2016: GFS/4D ENKF

• July 12, 2016: HWRF – Wave Watch 3

•HPC-Based Water Modeling: • Deploy National Water

Model on WCOSS

• HRRR v2.0 (HRRRe)

• Geospace Solar Wind Forecast

Te

raF

LO

P p

er

op

era

tio

na

l s

ys

tem

Increased HPC capacity to 2.8 petaFLOPs

(for primary and backup, respectively–for a total of 5.6 PF) –

Accepted for Operations: November 30, 2015

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Harmful

Algae Bloom

Forecast

Computer Status/Model Implementation Supported through HFIP and Sandy Supplemental

Tera

FLO

P p

er o

per

atio

nal

sys

tem

Increased HPC capacity to 2.8 petaFLOPs (for primary and backup, respectively–for a total of 5.6 PF)

Accepted for Operations: November 30, 2015

Harmful Algae Bloom Forecast

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Seamless Suite of Forecasts Increasingly Based on Multi-Model Ensembles

Forecast

Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

Fo

rec

as

t L

ea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats

Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

• North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Climate Forecast System

• Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

• Global Forecast System

• North American Mesoscale

• Rapid Refresh/HRRR

• Dispersion (smoke)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System

• Regional Hurricane

•Wave Ensemble

• Global Dust

• Fire Wx

Spanning Weather and Climate

• SSEO (Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity)

• North American Multi-Model Ensemble

• Space Weather Prediction Models

• Real Time Ocean Forecasts

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• Foundation for sustained growth in nationally consistent operational hydrologic forecasting capability

• Goals for NWM V1.0

– Provide forecast streamflow guidance for underserved locations

– Produce spatially continuous national estimates of hydrologic states (soil moisture, snow pack, etc.)

– Implement a modeling architecture that permits rapid infusion of new data and science, and allows for geo-intelligence linkages

• Hydrologic Output

– River channel discharge & velocity at 2.7 million river reaches

– Surface water depth and subsurface flow (250m CONUS+ grid)

• Land Surface Output

– 1km CONUS+ grid (soil and snow pack states; energy and water fluxes)

• Data Services

– Public-facing NWC website

– Data feed to River Forecast Centers

– NOMADS data service

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Current NWS AHPS locations (red) NWM output locations (blue)

National Water Model (NWM) Version 1.0 Implemented August 16, 2016 : Based on NCAR WRF-Hydro

Current NWS River Forecast Points (circles) Overlaid with NWM

Stream Reaches 29

“OneNWS” Network The future OneNWS network will consolidate all operational networks (OPSnet, Regional, etc.)

as a single managed network under NCEP Central Operations (NCO).

IDP

Network “Backbone”

IDP Dissemination Site NCWCP

(College Park, MD)

IDP Dissemination Site DSRC

(Boulder, CO)

Supercomputer (Reston, VA)

Supercomputer (Orlando, FL)

Future Functionality at IDP College Park and Boulder (Expected By March 2017)

• NWS Chat • AOMC/EM7 • SPOT

Functionality in place at IDP College Park and Boulder*

(as of December 2016)

• NOMADS* • FTPPRD* • TGFTP* • MADIS* • MRMS* • MAG* • Radar Level 3* • NWSTG Switch* • BUFR Migration

Tool (BMT)* • NLETS* • Radar Level 2* • EDIS/FTPMail* • HazCollect

(Extended)* • HazCollect

(Legacy)* • FNMOC

• FTPPush* • Global Information

Center System (GISC) * • IRIS/iNWS* • GMDSS* • SNOTEL* • Hydometeorological

Automated Data System (HADS)*

• HF-FAX • SOCKET/CMHP • NWS GIS Services • NOS Chart Tile • nowCOAST • Weather.gov • VLAB • SPOT

Internet CONUS WFOs

IN PROGRESS

RFCs

IN PROGRESS

CWSUs / FAA CMD CTR

IN PROGRESS

OCONUS

COMPLETE COMPLETE

External Partners

National Centers

COMPLETE

* Application operational in both College Park & Boulder

Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) OneNWS Network Long-Term Sustainable Solution

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NWS Operations Community Based Services

National Water Center New!

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NWS FY 2017 Budget High Priority Items

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PPA Funds*

Full Time

Employee

s (FTE)

Observations ORF 216,363 804

Observations PAC 16,720 -

Central Processing ORF 92,871 232

Central Processing PAC 64,261 22

Analyze, Forecast and

Support ORF 496,031 3,010

Dissemination ORF 44,743 82

Dissemination PAC 45,684 -

Science and Technology

Integration ORF 138,826 488

Facilities PAC 8,650 -

TOTAL 1,124,149 4,638

FY 2017 Full Year Budget Target based on FY 2016 Enacted Level

Composition by Portfolio

20%

3%

8%

6%

43%

4%

3%

12% 1%

Funds Breakdown

* In thousands of dollars

Dissemination • Shutdown legacy NWSTG

• OneNWS upgrades for

50 CONUS sites

• Mass Dissemination for

hazardous weather

• GOES-R Readiness

FY 2017 Portfolio Highlights

WRN Ambassador Initiative

4600+ Ambassadors

Observations • NEXRAD Service Life

Extension

• ASOS SLEP

• Radiosonde frequency

migration

• Achieve IOC for GOES-R

• Weather Buoy

Recapitalization

• Auto-launchers

Central Processing • AWIPS configured for GOER-R

data

• Complete use case

development for NAWIPS

• Extend the performance

period WCOSS

supercomputing systems and

service. Analyze, Forecast, Support

Facilities • Complete relocation of

WFO Davenport & WFO

Boston

• Initiate Facility

Assessments for 3rd 1/3

• Complete Phase 1

disposal of Annette

Island, Alaska

Science & Tech Integration • Complete GOES –R training development (SIFT)

• National Water Model v 1.1

• GDAS/GFS upgrade (last spectral upgrade)

• NGGPS Dynamic Core Integration

• HWRF upgrade

• Implement Impacts Catalog IDSS Portal

• National Blend of Models v3.0

• Integration of GOES-16 products into

SWPC operations & website

• CONOPS for NWC Operations Center

• Probabilistic snowfall experiment

expanded to 44 WFOs

• Add WFOs to DOT Pathfinder Project

• Evaluation of National Blend of

Models prototype demonstration

• Impacts Catalog demonstration to

show integration with field ops

• Operational Storm Surge

Watch/Warning in 2017

Summary • National Weather Service is a “24x7” science-based service

organization dedicated to public safety to save lives, property, and enhance the Nation’s economy

• Basis for the growing private enterprise that provides tailored weather and water services throughout the nation and the world. US Weather-Water-Climate enterprise is Second to None.

• NWS developed and embraced the Strategic Goal of Building a Weather-Ready Nation through partnerships with Federal, state, local and tribal Emergency Managers and local decision makers

• NWS has had incredible success: prediction and preparation for extreme weather water and short-term seasonal to annual climate events (e.g., Southwest Drought)

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Summary • Emergency Management – Partnership with the NWS has

revolutionized the EM community from one that reacts to events to one that proactively prepares and stays ahead of extreme events.

• Growing success stories across the nation – heat waves, floods, hurricanes, severe weather, winter storms, coastal surge, space weather “From the sun to the sea.”

• Ongoing effort to Evolve the NWS to focus on the partnerships with the Ems/WRN – Build the reliable state of the technology/services infrastructure from observations – to modeling – to dissemination – to forecasts for IDSS support.

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Appendix

37

38

From Operations and Workforce Analysis Our Partners: Need

for Local IDSS

• NWS IDSS users are engaged and loud and clear on the need for:

‒ Accuracy and consistency

‒ Timely/reliable delivery

• 94% of IDSS is provided locally through the Weather Forecast Offices – Must maintain local presence through the current WFO infrastructure

• Success depends on: ‒ IDSS focused on core partners and deep relationships with those partners

‒ Knowing partner key decision points/thresholds and risk preferences

‒ Providing consistent IDSS at national, regional and local levels

• In response: ‒ NWS must work towards a Fully Integrated Field Structure based on a

Collaborative Forecast Process

‒ Working towards “One NWS – One Forecast” to ensure consistency and accuracy

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The Job Doesn’t End with Forecasts and Warnings

“What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting”

‒ by Allan H. Murphy; Weather and Forecasting (June 1993)

“First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic

value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the

decisions made by users of the forecasts.”

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NWS Overview Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)

– Issue all Local Forecasts and Warnings

– Build and Maintain Relationships With Local and State Governments

– Provide Expert Advice to Emergency Managers and other Decision Makers

– Solicit Customer Feedback on Products and Services

– Conduct Community Awareness and Education Programs

– Train Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters

40 40

NWS Overview River Forecast Centers (RFCs)

– Issue river, reservoir and flood forecasts based on computer models

– Provide forecast guidance to Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)

– Work with water managers and other Federal Agencies

–IWRSS

–(IWRSS)

– (IWRSS)

41 41

NWS Overview National Centers

C E

N T R A

L

Weather Prediction

Center College Park, MD

Storm Prediction

Center Norman, OK

Aviation Weather

Center Kansas City, MO

National Hurricane

Center Miami, FL

Ocean Prediction

Center College Park, MD

Climate Prediction

Center College Park, MD

Space Weather

Prediction Center Boulder, CO

Environmental

Modeling

Center

P

O

E R A T I

O N

S

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National Water Center

University of Alabama – Tuscaloosa, AL

VISION: Scientific excellence and innovation driving water prediction to support decisions

for a water resilient nation

MISSION: Nationally Integrated Water Prediction

• Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction

• Operations Center to establish common operating picture within NOAA and among water agencies; decision support for floods to droughts (flood mapping to street level)

• Proving ground to accelerate R2O and O2R

• Interagency and Academia Collaboration (e.g., Federal Partners, CUAHSI, UCAR, NCAR)

• Data integration and service backup

• Earth system modeling and geo-intelligence

A catalyst to transform NOAA’s water prediction program

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