noaa's nws national performance measures fy 2010 – fy 2016 noaa's nws national...

NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures FY 2010 – FY 2016 FY 2010 – FY 2016

Government Performance Requirements Government Performance Requirements ActAct (GPRA) Performance Measure(GPRA) Performance Measure

GoalsGoals

ActuaActual l GoalsGoals

20102010 20102010 20112011

20122012

20132013

20142014

20120155 20162016

Weather and Water GoalsWeather and Water Goals

Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%)(%) 7070 7272 7070 7272 7272 7272 7373 7373

Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%)(%) 7272 *74*74 7272 7171 7171 7171 7070 7070

Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min)(Min) 1212 1414 1212 1313 1313 1313 1414 1414

Flash Flood Warnings-Accuracy (%)Flash Flood Warnings-Accuracy (%) 7272 7979 7272 7474 7474 7474 7676 7676

Flash Flood Warnings-Lead Time (Min)Flash Flood Warnings-Lead Time (Min) 3838 7171 3838 4040 4040 4040 4242 4242

Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, RMS)RMS) 107107 8989 8787 8484 8181 7777 7474 7171

Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots)Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots) 1313 *15*15 1313 1212 1212 1212 1111 1111

Precipitation Forecast-Day-1 Threat Score Precipitation Forecast-Day-1 Threat Score (%)(%) 3030 3535 3030 3131 3232 3232 3333 3333

Winter Storm Warnings-Accuracy (%)Winter Storm Warnings-Accuracy (%) 9090 9090 9090 9090 9191 9191 9191 9292

Winter Storm Warnings-Lead Time Winter Storm Warnings-Lead Time (Hours)(Hours) 1515 2121 1515 1919 1919 2020 2020 2020

“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”

* Performance measures that are highlighted in red missed target goal for FY-10.

Government Performance Requirements Government Performance Requirements ActAct (GPRA) Performance Measure (GPRA) Performance Measure

GoalsGoals

ActuaActua

l l GoalsGoals

20102010 20102010 20112011

20122012

20132013

20142014

20152015

20162016

Climate GoalsClimate Goals

U.S. Seasonal Temperature – SkillU.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill 2424 *18*18 2121 **** **** **** **** ****

Commerce and Transportation GoalsCommerce and Transportation Goals

Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) – Visibility) – Accuracy (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft)Accuracy (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft)

6565 6565 6565 6666 6868 6969 6969 7070

Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) –Visibility) – False Alarm Rate (%) (less than 3 False Alarm Rate (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft)mi/1000 ft)

4242 3636 4141 4141 3939 3939 3838 3838

Marine Wind Speed – Percentage of Marine Wind Speed – Percentage of AccurateAccurate ForecastsForecasts

6969 7474 6969 7070 7070 7070 7171 7171

Marine Wave Height – Percentage of Marine Wave Height – Percentage of AccurateAccurate ForecastsForecasts

7474 7676 7474 7575 7575 7575 7676 7676


*Performance measures that are highlighted in red missed target goal for FY-10.

NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures FY 2010 – FY 2016 FY 2010 – FY 2016

**U.S. Seasonal Temperature will be an OAR GPRA performance measure only, starting in FY-12.

Tornado WarningsTornado Warnings

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Years

Percentages

0

5

10

15

20

Minutes*Tornado Warnings - Accuracy (%)

*Tornado Warnings - Accuracy Goals (%)

*Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate (%)*Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate Goals (%)**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%)

**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy Goals (%)**Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%)

**Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate Goals (%)*Tornado Warnings - Lead Time (Min)*Tornado Warnings - Lead Time Goals (Min)

**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min)**Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time Goals (Min)

* 1996 - 2007 Tornado Warnings used County-Based Methodology. ** 2008 - Present Tornado Warnings use new Storm-Based Methodology.


Flash Flood WarningsFlash Flood Warnings

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Percentages

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Minutes

* Accuracy Actual (Y1)* Accuracy Goals (Y1)** Storm Based Accuracy Actual (Y1)** Storm Based Accuracy Goals (Y1)** Storm Based Lead Time Actual (Y2)** Storm Based Lead Time Goals (Y2)* Lead Time Actual (Y2)* Lead Time Goals (Y2)


* 1996 - 2009 Flash Flood Warnings used County-Based Methodology. ** 2010 - Present Flash Flood Warnings use new Storm-Based

Methodology.

Hurricane Track Forecasts Hurricane Track Forecasts (48Hrs Forecast Error, RMS)(48Hrs Forecast Error, RMS)

0

50

100

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Na

uti

ca

l M

ile

s

Nautical Miles Actual

Nautical Miles Goals


Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Hu

rric

an

e I

nte

ns

ity

Err

or

(Kn

ots

)

Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)Actual

Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)Goals


Precipitation ForecastPrecipitation Forecast (Day-1 Threat Score)(Day-1 Threat Score)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Th

rea

t S

co

re

Day-1 Threat Score Actual

Day-1 Threat Score Goals


Winter Storm WarningsWinter Storm Warnings

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Accuracy

0

10

20

30

Hours

Accuracy Actual (Y1)

Accuracy Goals (Y1)

Lead Time Actual (Hours) (Y2)

Lead Time (Hours) Goals (Y2)


U.S. Seasonal Temperature - SkillU.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Ski

ll

** Skill Actual

** Skill Goals


**U.S. Seasonal Temperature will be an OAR GPRA Performance Measure only, starting in FY-12.

Aviation ForecastsAviation Forecasts (Ceiling/Visibility Forecast)(Ceiling/Visibility Forecast)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

s

1 mi/500 ft or less - Accuracy1 mi/500 ft or less - Accuracy (Goals)1 mi/500 ft or less - False Alarm Rate1 mi/500 ft or less - False Alarm Rate (Goals)*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - Accuracy*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - Accuracy (Goals)*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - False Alarm Rate*less than 3 mi/1000 ft - False Alarm Rate (Goals)

* Modified performance measures to be more meaningful and relevant to the aviation community and the forecaster.


Marine Wind Speed ForecastsMarine Wind Speed Forecasts

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

s

Accuracy Actual

Accuracy Goals

*% of Accurate Forecasts - Actual

*% of Accurate Forecasts - Goals

* New performance measures to best represent forecast accuracy.


Marine Wave Height ForecastsMarine Wave Height Forecasts

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

Pe

rce

nta

ge

s

Accuracy - Actual

Accuracy - Goals

*% of Accurate Forecasts - Actual

*% of Accurate Forecasts - Goals

* New performance measures to best represent forecast accuracy.


noaa's nws national performance measures fy 2010 – fy 2016 noaa's nws national...

Documents

new performance measures

way of lifeu

modified performance

present tornado warnings

new stormbased methodology

present flash flood

oar gpra performance

forecast accuracy