Nominations and Campaigns

Chapter 9

9.1 Primaries

Primary and General Elections

Primary Elections• Happen first (May)• Ran by the parties• Where parties choose

which candidate will be their nominee

General Elections• Happen last (November)• Ran by the gov• When the GENERAL

population picks the winner for the office

The Nomination Game

• Nomination:– The official endorsement of a candidate for office by a

political party.

• Campaign Strategy:– The plan to get yourself elected.

• Candidate:– Someone running for office

• Delegates:– Votes from each state for a candidate (in both primaries

and general elections)

Deciding to Run

• Campaigns are physically and emotionally taxing.

• Other countries have short campaigns - generally less than 2 months.

• U.S. campaigns (especially for President) can last 18 months or more.

Competing for Delegates

• National party convention – meeting of party leaders who choose the candidate– Today, they just go on which states had the majority in

primary elections (each state has a delegation or votes)

• Before now, each state’s vote was cast by one or two party bosses, not by a majority vote in the state

• So the nomination and primary process is more democratic now– Happened because of riots at the 68 democratic

convention over Vietnam

Superdelegates

• Parties still have delegates who get votes based on their position– Senator, governor in a state

• Counts for 14% of Democratic delegates• 8% of Republican delegates

The Primary Road

• Primary: – Elections in which voters choose the nominee or

delegates pledged to the nominee.

• Caucus:– Like a town hall meeting in schools and churches

where people choose how to use their delegate votes

• Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.

Frontloading

• the tendency of states to hold primaries early• New Hampshire is first• When primaries are held is determined by the

party

The First Primaries

• Iowa has the first caucus• New Hampshire has the first primary • “The winner of the Iowa caucus doesn’t

always go on to win the nomination, but the results from Iowa usually serve to winnow down the number of viable candidates for the primaries to come.”

Invisible Primaries

• Candidates campaign as early as two years before a primary

• Not really a primary, but you can lose big– Romney’s dad was brainwashed– Perry “oops”

Problems with the Primary System

• Disproportionate attention to the early states.• Prominent politicians find it difficult to make

time to run.• Money plays too big a role.• Participation in primaries and caucuses is low

and unrepresentative.• The system gives too much power to the media.

– Media can make or break candidates

Primary System

• Puts candidates of the same party against each other

• Means that they will seem more extreme to get party votes

• Then they must move to the middle for the general election

• The Inflated Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire (Figure 9.1)

National Conventions

• Every July• 3 things happen here

– Prez nomination (formality)– VP named by Prez– Party platform chosen – what the party will “stand

on” for the next four years• 2012: Republicans said they’d be nice on illegal

immigration

9.1 Quiz A

1. What was decided by the McGovern-Fraser Commission?

2. What term refers to the master game plan candidates lay out go guide their electoral campaign?

3. What is Walter Mondale talking about below?For four years, that’s all I did. I mean, all

I did. That’s all you think about. That’s all you talk about.... That’s your leisure. That’s your luxury.... “

9.2 The Campaign Game

The High-Tech Media Campaign

• Use of direct mail to generate support and money for the candidate

• Get media attention through ad budget and “free” coverage

• Emphasis on “marketing” a candidate• News focuses on strategies and events, not on

policies

Organizing the Campaign

• Get a campaign manager• Get a fund-raiser & legal counsel• Hire media and campaign consultants• Assemble staff / plan the logistics• Get research staff, policy advisors & pollsters• Get a good press secretary

Money and Campaigning

• Federal Election Commission: Created by law in 1974 to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections.– Make campaign contributions open so all can see – Limited spending & required disclosure– Limited contributions to campaigns

• Soft Money– Contributions (with no limits) used for party-building expenses

or generic party advertising– A workaround to the FEC– Banned by McCain Feingold (2002)– 2000 (ATT gave $3 million, TMNT gave $7 million)

Definitions

• Campaign contributions – made directly to a candidate – Must be reported to the FEC– Limit of $2500 per person per candidate– Limit of $38,000 per person to a whole party

• Independent expenditures – money used to send out a political message not coordinated with a particular campaign

• Buckley v. Valeo – SCOTUS case saying my contributions to my own campaign are unlimited

PACs

• PACs: Created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and others to donate money to campaigns.

• Over 3900 PACs today donating over $212 million

Money and Campaigning

• Are Campaigns Too Expensive?– Fund raising takes up lots of time.– The closer the race, the more money is needed.

• Does Money Buy Victory?– Too much money can be worse than not enough.– But, candidates need “enough” money to win

The Hyrdaulic Theory of Money and Politics

• “money, like water, inevitably finds its way around any obstacle and on to politics.”

• 527 Groups (Super PACs) – unregulated by the FEC– Not given to candidates, but spent on behalf of their

message – Can’t say “vote for” or “vote against”

• Citizens United v. FEC (2010) – made contributions to Super PACs unlimited – Money = speech

9.2 Quiz B

1. What kind of groups allow for members to contribute as much money as they want as long as it doesn’t go directly to candidates?

2. What was money compared to in the “hydraulic theory of money and politics”? It was referring to how, no matter what, money will find its way to politics.

3. What was stopped by McCain Feingold?

9.3

Impact of Campaigns

• 3 main impacts:– Reinforce voters’ preference for candidates– Activate voters – get them to give money or campaign for you– Convert – change voters’ minds

• Rarely happens

• Why campaigns don’t matter that much– Selective perception – ppl only think about what they already agree

with – Long term factors (party identificaiton) play a bigger role than

campaings– The incumbency name recognition factor

• Wedge issues – issues the other party is divided on– You can get some votes by picking a side

Whether to Vote

• Suffrage – right to vote – All citizens have it except felony convicts (varying by state)

• Turnout is hitting all-time lows– 80% in 1896– 59% in 2012 (Presidential)– 40% in 2010 (mid-term, no President)

• Biggest reason not to vote – don’t want to take time off from school/work

• Also, low political efficacy – the idea that my vote matters

• Some vote for civic duty– Its my job as a citizen to vote

Registering

• Voter registration can take time and effort– Must put name on list sometimes a month before the

election – Differs from state to state

• Motor Voter Act – register by checking a box when you renew your driver’s license – Haven't seen an increase due to it yet

• Voter ID Laws – rules that you must have an official ID to vote– Pro law – keeps down vote fraud– Con law – it keeps students, minorities and poor from voting

Why we don’t vote

• Registering can be burdensom (others register everyone)

• We have too many elections (others have fewer)– At least two a year

• No major communist/liberal party (others have them)– Doesn’t motivate ppl to vote because Dems and Reps are

very similar– Won’t change much

• Election Day is always a Tuesday when ppl are working (others have it on a Saturday or holiday)

9.3 Quiz A

1. What is the biggest reason people don’t vote?

2. What act allowed people to register to vote when they renew their drivers’ licenses?

3. Some people vote because they have a sense of __________ _________ which means they think voting preserves democracy.

9.3 Quiz B

1. Name three reasons people don’t vote.2. What act in the 1990s allowed for people to

register to vote when they get their drivers’ license?

3. Name two groups of people who are less likely to vote than their counterparts.

9.4 How Americans Vote

How We Vote

• Mandate theory of elections – once elected, candidates must carry out what they promised – It’s a promise they must keep

• Three elements of voters’ decisions (Party, person and policy)– Party identification – Evaluation of individual candidates– Policy voting

Party Identification (Party)

• Like religion, favorite sports team– Ppl keep them for a long time

• Simplifies politics for ppl that don’t care much about them – The party ideas guide them

• Don’t have to worry about the particular issues

• In the 1950s parties matter a lot more– Southern democrats would vote for a yellow dog if it is a

democrat • “My party-right or wrong.”

• Changes w/ rise of TV– Ppl focus on the individual candidates more now

Evaluation of Individual Candidates (Person)

• When policy views and party identification are the same, good pictures can get you elected

• Three important factors of candidate image:– Integrity

• Honesty, morality

– Reliability • Dependable, not a flip-flopper

– Competence • Intelligent, able to do the job

• “as a student of Shakespeare, I always saw the person and the policy as inextricably braided. You had to know something about the person to whom you were going to entrust life and death decisions.”

Policy Voting (Policy) • To work, ppl must be educated, know where candidates stand, know

the difference between stances and vote for who they agree with– When this works, they vote for the closest candidate to their views only

71% of the time– Well, crap.

• To avoid losing policy votes, politicans cloud their views with ‘rhetoric’ – language designed to have a persuasive or impressive effect on its audience,

but often regarded as lacking in sincerity or meaningful content– Nixon and Humphrey on Vietnam – Not the case today – the media leads candidates to take a stand and make

them stand out against their opponents • Horse race journalism – when media focuses on who’s winning in the

polls, not the issues

9.4 Quiz A

1. How did Nixon and Humphrey handle their views on Vietnam?

2. Which idea is described below?1. Once elected, candidates must carry out what

they promised

3. Which of the three factors that lead people to vote was compared to a person’s loyalty to a sports team or their following of a religion?

9.4 Quiz B

1. Fill in the blank on this quote from Maureen Dowd: “as a student of ____________, I always saw the person and the policy as inextricably braided. You had to know something about the person to whom you were going to entrust life and death decisions.”

2. Of the three image characteristics most valued for candidates, which one is concerned with a candidate not being a ‘flip-flopper’?

3. List the three major elements of why people vote the way they do.

9.5 The Electoral College…Eww

318-323

• True or False? • The candidate with the most votes is

elected president.

• Answer: Not necessarily. Ask Al Gore.• The 2000 Election

• The Popular Vote• Al Gore 50,996,039• George W. Bush 50,456,141 • The Electoral Vote• George W. Bush 271• Al Gore 267

• Historical Background • Framers disagreed on congress/ppl

electing pres.• EC was compromise.

• State Electoral Votes • Each state gets the sum of its

representation in the U.S. House and Senate

• Kentucky: 6 Congressmen + 2 Senators = 8 Electors

• Electors • Individuals selected in each state to

officially cast that state’s electoral votes.

• Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates.

• Selection of Electors: • Each state determines• All but two states use a winner-take-all

system• If Candidate A gets the most votes in a

state, Candidate A gets all of the electors.• Maine and Nebraska award electors

based on congressional districts

• The Real Election • In December, the electors gather in

their respective state capitols to cast ballots for president and vice president. In January, Congress convenes, opens the ballots received from each state, and announces the official outcome.

• What if no one receives a majority? • To win, a candidate needs a majority, that is, 270 (of

538) electoral votes.• If no candidate has a majority, the House selects the

president from among the three presidential candidates with the most electoral votes.

• Each state has one vote when it is left to the House– Super undemocratic – Wyoming = California

• In 1824, Congress chose John Quincy Adams.• The Senate selects the vice president from the top

two.

• One candidate may be helped by winning most of the smaller states, which benefit from the small-state bias caused by each state getting at least three electoral votes regardless of its size.

• Criticisms of the Electoral College:• Only battleground states get attention from

candidates–States where the race is close and a lot of

electors are on the line • The popular vote winner may lose.• Electors may vote for persons other than

their party’s candidates. (not likely)• Congress in charge if no winner.

Kill the Electoral College?

Yes• More democratic

– A vote is a vote

• Candidates hear from more diverse citizens – Not just battleground states

• Could increase turnout and political efficacy

No• Would just make candidates

focus on big cities (big populations)

• Focus wouldn’t change like it does with some battleground states

Elections are awesome!

• Politically socialize citizens• Institutionalizes (makes it official) political activity

– Other ways are less organized (letters, protest)• Keeps down violence, revolutions• Gives people regular access to political power • Makes government legitmate in the eyes of the citizens • Very democratic – a nobody can become a poltiican

– Other countries have elite party control of nominations• We used to

• “Candidate-centered age” – an individual, not a party, can get themselves elected

Elections are not awesome!

• “the process of selecting American leaders is a long and convoluted one that has little downtime before it revs up all over again.”

• “The permanent campaign”– Might make people cynical about politics– Might turn away good people from running– Certainly makes money flood into politics

Campaings increase the scope of government.

• Battleground states get promises which leads to the government doing more (aka scope increase)– Ag subsidies in Iowa, oil tax breaks in Texas

• When people have the power to dole out electoral reward and punishment, they are more likely to see government as their servant instead of their master. As Benjamin Ginsberg writes, “Democratic elections help to persuade citizens that expansion of the state’s powers represents an increase in the state’s capacity to serve them.”

9.5 Quiz A

1. Name either presidential candidate in the 2000 election where the candidate with the least popular votes won the Electoral College vote majority.

2. Kentucky has six House of Representatives members. How many Electoral College votes does it get?

3. What is the term for states that get most of the focus from candidates during a presidential election?

9.5 Quiz B

1. Who picks the president if no one candidate has a majority of electoral votes?

2. How do campaigns and elections increase the scope of government?

3. How many states don’t have winner-take-all Electoral College systems?