nordic mining seminar – pdac 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · the...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017
Tuesday March 7
Ken Green, Senior Director, Centre for Natural Resources
The Fraser Institute
![Page 2: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation Outline
• Survey background and methodology
• Results of 2016 Survey
• Areas of weakness
• Areas of strength
• Individual policy areas
• Conclusion
![Page 3: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Survey Background
• Rankings compiled from an anonymous annual survey of exploration, development and mining companies
– Began with North American jurisdictions in 1997
– Current survey includes 104 valid jurisdictions
– Minimum threshold of 10 responses to include results in survey report
![Page 4: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The 2016 Survey
• Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting companies
– Asked to respond only for jurisdictions which they know
• Responses from 350 executives
• Representing US$2.7 billion in exploration spending in 2016 and US$3.2 billion in 2015
• 104 jurisdictions rated
![Page 5: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Survey Methodology
• Survey participants in 15 policy areas
– For example, “Taxation Regime” or “Political Stability”
– Asked whether deters or encourages investment on a scale of 1-5
• Policy Perception Index
– A composite measure of all 15 policy areas that considers responses from all 5 response categories
• Standardized scores are estimated for each jurisdiction on each policy variable and then added up and normalized to a scale of 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
![Page 6: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2016 Policy Perception Index
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Norway
Finland Sweden
![Page 7: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
2016 Survey Results
• Sweden ranked 3rd (PPI 98.2), Finland 4th (PPI 97.6), and Norway 19th (PPI 89.0)
• Republic of Ireland is top-ranked jurisdiction; Saskatchewan is 2nd
• Also in the top 10 are Nevada, Manitoba, Wyoming, New Brunswick, Western Australia, and Northern Ireland
• French Guiana tops Latin America globally at 34th
place
• Botswana tops in Africa at 12th overall.
• The bottom 10: Venezuela, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe, Mongolia, Philippines, Indonesia, Chubut, South Sudan, Mendoza, Ecuador
![Page 8: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2016 Results-Finland• Ranked 4th (PPI of 97.6)
• An increase from 5th in 2015– Largely due to the perception of the taxation
regime as a decreasing deterrent (-15%) and minor improvements in other areas, although uncertainty over protected areas was seen as more of an obstacle (+16%)
• Areas of strength include:
– Security environment
– Geological database
– Political stability
![Page 9: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2016 Results-Norway• Ranked 19th (PPI of 89.0)
• An decline of 7 spots from 2015
– Caused by greater investment deterrents from labour regulations and employment agreements (+36%), taxation regime (+17%), and uncertainty concerning environmental regulations (+11%)
• Areas of strength include:
– Security environment
– Infrastructure
– Political stability
![Page 10: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
2016 Results-Sweden• Ranked 3rd (PPI of 98.2)
• Remained in the same spot as 2015
– Sweden had less deterrent to investment in the legal system (-18%), but worse perception of the taxation regime (+12%)
• Areas of strength include:
– Security environment
– Political stability
– Infrastructure
![Page 11: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Relative Rank 2016
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2012/13 2013 2014 2015 2016
Finland
Norway
Sweden
![Page 12: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
PPI 2012/13-2016
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
2012/13 2013 2014 2015 2016
Finland Sweden Norway
![Page 13: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Mineral Potential
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Encourages Investment Not a Deterrent
64th
21st 12th
Global Top 10
![Page 14: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Individual Policy Areas
Here we look at “detriments” to mining.
So lower scores indicate
mining friendly policy.
![Page 15: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Uncertainty over which Areas will be Protected2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Finland Norway Sweden
Would not Invest
Strong Deterrent
Mild Deterrent
![Page 16: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Uncertainty Concerning Environmental Regulations2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Finland Norway Sweden
Would not Invest
Strong Deterrent
Mild Deterrent
![Page 17: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Uncertainty concerning disputed land claims2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Finland Norway Sweden
Would not Invest
Strong Deterrent
Mild Deterrent
![Page 18: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Taxation Regime2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Finland Norway Sweden
Would not Invest
Strong Deterrent
Mild Deterrent
![Page 19: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Conclusion
• The three Nordic countries continue to have some of the most attractive policies in the world for mining investment
• Key areas for improvement are:
– Uncertainty from protected areas
– Uncertainty concerning environmental regulations
– Uncertainty concerning disputed land claims
– Taxation regime
![Page 20: Nordic Mining Seminar – PDAC 2017projects.gtk.fi/export/sites/projects/nordicmining... · The 2016 Survey • Sent to 2700 executives at exploration, development, and mining consulting](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042410/5f279ec8bb808234ee3537d0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
All research available at no charge at:
www.fraserinstitute.orgThank You!
Taylor Jackson