north american modelling futures - amazon s3 · complex trip chaining intra-household interactions...
TRANSCRIPT
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North American Modelling Futures
Rick Donnelly
Modelling Tomorrow’s World | 23 November 2016
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Mo
del
ing
par
adig
ms
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2G
act
ivit
y-b
ased
mo
del
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3G activity-based models
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Imp
lem
enta
tio
ns
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Evolution of practice
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Incr
easi
ng
det
ail
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(Changing) Oregon analytical requirements
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Maj
or
infl
uen
ces
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Convergence?
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Context first
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Forecasting versus replication
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Beh
avio
ura
ld
ata
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Dat
a-d
rive
n m
od
el
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New forecasting approach
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Next?
• Invest in wetware
• Transparent big data
• Drop reductionist mindset
• Model less, forecast more
• Multi-scale and hybrid solutions
• Embrace uncertainty
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Worth reading
• C04 Traveler response to pricing and congestion
http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/shrp2/SHRP2prepubC04.pdf
• Activity-based modelling primer
http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/170963.aspx
• Zürich meets New York
http://bit.ly/2f1zvKQ
• Josie Kressner’s ITM16 presentation
https://transportfoundry.com/blog/
Rick Donnelly ([email protected])