north atlantic ecosystem modeling/observation globec transitioning need: transition science and...
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North Atlantic Ecosystem Modeling/Observation
GLOBEC Transitioning
Need: Transition science and tools developed in GLOBEC into operational tools for managers
GLOBEC Goal: Quantify Quantify the effects of climate the effects of climate change on key species of change on key species of marine animals.marine animals.
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US GLOBEC Georges Bank Program
To understand the processes To understand the processes controlling recruitment of cod and controlling recruitment of cod and haddock and their dominant haddock and their dominant copepod prey species as affected copepod prey species as affected by climate change.by climate change.
Overall Objective
Biomass at Age
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
x 104
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Spawning Stock Biomass
Number of
Recruits
Stock ̶ Recruitment
Georges Bank Haddock
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Copepods vs Year
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
500
450
400
350
300
250
Salinity Anomaly
Pseudocalanus (μg m-3)
Larval growth vs prey Larval Mortality vs Year
Sampling Grid
Green & Pershing 2007 Green & Pershing 2007 ScienceScience
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Climate: North Atlantic Oscillation
Slope Water Intrusions Reduce Nutrients
Upwelling
LSW= low nutrients
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Regional-scale Model Basin-scale Model
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Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)
Concentration-based Food-web and Copepod
Species Models
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Physics Nutrients andPhytoplankton
CopepodSpecies
Input data
Bio-physical model
ModelOutput
3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period 1995-1999
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Ji, Davis, Chen, Beardsley, et al. Ji, Davis, Chen, Beardsley, et al.
1995-1999
Nutrients & PhytoplanktonQuickTime™ and a
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Nauplii
Pseudocalanus, 1995Eggs
Copepodites
Adults
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Cod-haddock individual-based modelThe mechanistic feeding component uses biological and physical properties of predator, prey, and environment for calculations
Kristiansen w/ Werner, Lough, Buckley, Kristiansen w/ Werner, Lough, Buckley, Fogarty, PetrikFogarty, Petrik
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Transitioning: Fisheries conservation
• GLOBEC 3D model predicts effects of local & remote forcing on:– Lower food web (NPZD)– Dominant copepod species– Cod/haddock larval survival
• Need to incorporate with adult fish stock assessment• Use for other species: fish, scallops, lobsters
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Transitioning: Other Applications
Many other applications of this 3D modeling
• red tide • right whales • pollution transport, watershed interface • siting of outfalls, golf courses • search and rescue• storm/hurricane surge/run-up• port security• sea-level rise/inundation
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Transitioning: 3D model: Mass Coast
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Future: Modeling & Observing System
3D Model can be used to:
• design observing system
• data assimilation
• interactive sampling
• provide ocean forecasts Temperature
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Modeling & Observing System GOMOOS, COOA
ORIONLEO
MVCO
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Future: Modeling & Observing System: NE Partnerships
AcademicWHOI, UMASSD, MIT, UNH, UMaine, GOMOOS, URI, GMRI, RARGOM, GOMODP, et. al.IndustryHydroid Inc.Teledyne Inc. Seascan Inc. Web Research Inc.Falmouth Scientific, Inc.FederalNOAA-NMFS
Research & Development
NOAA-NOSNOAA-NMFS
Operational Modeling
PrivateFoundationsIndividualsFederalNOPP-IOOSNSF-ORIONDHS, USCG, EPAStateMA, NH, ME, RIIndustryFishing, Shipping,Envir. Consult.
Funding
IndustryFishingShippingEnvir. Consult.FederalNMFS, DHS, USCG, EPAStateMWRANEFMCMA CZM, DMFME, NH DMR LocalCounty, Town CCs, ShellfishNGOsConservation
End Users
NOAA, IndustryWHOI, GOMOOS
Observing system maintenance
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Workshop: Fall 2008, GoM-GB EBM-MOS
Straw Agenda:
• Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users
• Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups
Sensor and platform development Data integration and modeling. End user interface
• Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups
Cod/haddock HABs Sediment Transport
Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS
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• Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users
• Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups
Sensor and platform development Data integration and modeling. End user interface
• Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups
Scallops Right whales Innundation/storm surge
Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS
Workshop: Spring 2009, GoM-GB EBM-MOS
Straw Agenda:
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• Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users
• Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups
Sensor and platform development Data integration and modeling. End user interface
• Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups
Lobsters Pollution: toxic, eutrophication, hypoxia Search and Rescue
Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS
Workshop: Summer 2009, GoM-GB EBM-MOS
Straw Agenda:
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BASIN: Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and Integration - Resolving the impact of climatic processes on ecosystems of the North Atlantic basin and shelf seas.
Goal: To understand and predict the impact of climate change on key species of plankton and fish, and associated ecosystem and biogeochemical dynamics in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre System and surrounding shelves, in order to improve ocean management and conservation.
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Scenario for trans-Atlantic BASIN sampling
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QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.