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North Dakota Petroleum Council September 26, 2018 Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority

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Page 1: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

North Dakota

Petroleum Council

September 26, 2018

Justin J KringstadGeological Engineer

Director

North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Page 2: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

2

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 2

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DOE-EIA Forecasted Oil Price

33JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 3

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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast

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44JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 4

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5

Statewide Gas Performance

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 5Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide

~16% Improvement

Over 2017

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Bakken and Three Forks Well Performance

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 6

Page 7: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Historic Bakken/Three Forks GOR

7JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 7

Page 8: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Current Statewide Bakken/Three Forks GOR

8JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 8

Page 9: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

NDPA North Dakota Gas Production Forecast

99JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 9

Page 10: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

NDIC “Core” Activity

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Page 11: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

11

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 11

Page 12: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Simple Terms

Blue – Lack of pipelines

Orange – Challenges on existing

infrastructure

GREEN – % of gas captured and sold

Blue – % flared from zero sales wells

Orange – % flared from wells with at

least one mcf sold.

July 2018 Data – Non-Confidential WellsStatewide

Solving the Flaring Challenge

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 12

Page 13: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Flaring By Category – July 2017

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Non-Confidential Wells OnlyNon-Confidential Wells Only

Page 14: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Flaring By Category – July 2018

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 14

Non-Confidential Wells OnlyNon-Confidential Wells Only

Page 15: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Average Bakken/Three Forks Well Flaring Volumes

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Page 16: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Avg. Statewide Monthly Flaring For Connected Wells

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Solving the Flaring Challenge

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 17

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18

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 18

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19JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring Challenge

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 19

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20JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring Challenge

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 20

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21JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline AuthorityJJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 21

Upcoming Expansion

WBI Transmission

Andeavor

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22JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline AuthorityJJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 22

Upcoming

Expansion

MMCFD

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23

Natural Gas Update

Production

• Technology

• Markets

Gathering

• Capacity

• Connections

Processing

• Capacity

• Location

Transmission

• Dry Gas

• Natural Gas Liquids

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 23

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Major Gas Pipeline and

Processing Infrastructure

WBI Transmission

Whiting

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline AuthorityJJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 24

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JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 25

Northern Border Pipeline

*Data Source: Northern Border IPS

• 42” Pipeline

• Carries Canadian (Port of Morgan) and Domestic Gas

• Receives Gas From ND Plants, WBI Transmission Interconnections, and WY Pipelines (Bison & Grasslands)

• Midcontinent Deliveries

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Northern Border Pipeline

*Data Source: Northern Border IPS

Page 27: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Simplified Example NB CalculationsConclusion: IF no other gas export options open and all other deliveries on other pipelines stay static, ND

gas production could increase 1.28-1.58 BCFD (from July-18) before Northern Border is 100% Bakken

production. BTU management becomes increasingly important for Bakken residue gas.

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Page 28: North Dakota Petroleum Council - WordPress.com€¦ · 26/09/2018  · JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Simplified Example NB Calculations Conclusion: IF no other gas

Simplified Example NB CalculationsConclusion: IF no other gas export options open and all other deliveries on other pipelines stay static, ND

gas production could increase 1.28-1.58 BCFD (from July-18) before Northern Border is 100% Bakken

production. BTU management becomes increasingly important for Bakken residue gas.

• Gas Plants With C2+ Capture

~1,010+ BTU Residue Gas

• Gas Plants With C3+ Capture

~1,150+ BTU Residue Gas

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 28

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Foothills Pipeline

29JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority Map & Raw Data Source: TransCanadaJJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 29Map & Raw Data Source: TransCanada

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Now What?

3030JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 30

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LNG Exports to Benefit ND by Shifting Gas Flow

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LNG Exports to Benefit ND by Shifting Gas Flow

Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors

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Regional NGL Infrastructure

Kinder

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North Dakota Captured* NGL’s

3434JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 34*Non-flared NGL’s & Assumes 10 GPM

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NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options

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ONEOK Elk Creek NGL Pipeline

Project Highlights

• 900 Miles - 20” Pipeline

• $1.4 Billion

• 240,000 BPD Capacity

• Expandable to 400,000

BPD

• End of 2019 Proposed

Completion

• Y-Grade Transportation

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 36

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North Dakota Pipeline Construction

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Sources: NDIC & PHMSA

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North Dakota Pipeline Construction

38

Sources: NDIC & PHMSA

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New Miles and Well Completions

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New Bakken/Three Forks WorkFull Slide Deck - September 14, 2018 NDIC Presentation Online

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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority

600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840

Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820

E-mail: [email protected]

Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov

www.northdakotapipelines.com

Contact Information

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 41