north korea centrifuge capabilities (redacted) · 5.1 (u) precision or exotic machining _ . . . 25...

Approved for release by ODNI on 6/8/2016, FOIA Case DF-2011-00033.

-TS-/

N orth Korea Centrifuge Capabilities (U )

Derived From: Multiple Sources Declassify On : August 3, 2034

St udy Leader -Contr ibutors Include:

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JSR-09-510

October 21, 2009

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Contents

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1 (U) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

2 (U) INTRODUCTION 6 2.1 (U) JASON Charge . _ .. _ . . 7 2.2 (U) Organization of this Report 8 2.3 (U) Acknowledgments . . . . . 9

3 (U) MANUFACTURING APPROACHES 10 3.1 (U) Modern Manufacturing in the Developed World 10 3.2 (U) Avoiding Mirror 1maging . . . . . . . . 11 3.3 (U) Best Guesses for NK Practices . . . . . . 13

3.3.l A previous US effort at avoiding mirror imaging 15

4 (U) CENTRIFUGE BASICS 16 4.1 (U) Basic Ideas Due to Zippe . .. .. _ 16 •L 2 ( U) Physics Performance and Scaling Laws . 17 4.3 (U) Importance of Rotor Material Strength . 19 4.4 (U) Maintaining the Counter-Current Flow 20 4.5 (U) Cascade Priuciples . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.6 (U) Instabilities and Bellows . . _ . . _ . 22

5 (U) WHAT ARE THE LONG POLES? 25 5.1 (U) Precision or exotic machining _ . . . 25

5.1.1 (U) Stationary magnet holder clips 28 5.1.2 (U) Spiral grooves on the ball bearing 29

5.2 (U) Frequency Converters and Motors . . 30 5.2. l (U) Commodity audio amplifier chips 32 5.2.2 (U) Commodity microcontrollers 32 5.2.3 (U) Commodity power supplies 33 5.2.4 (U) 0!.her features . . . . . 33

5 .3 (U) Rot.or Material and Fabrication 34 5.:3 .l (U) Maraging steel . . . 3-! 5.3.2 (U) Flow forming . . _ . 36 5.3 .3 (U) Final hydroforming . 37

5.4 (U) Bellows . .. _ . . . . . . . 38 5.5 (U) Centrifuge-Specific Know-How 39

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5.5.1 (U) Upper Suspension Mag.nets . 5.5 .2 (U) Rotor testing and balancing . 5.5.3 (U) Bearing and damping testing 5.5.4 (U) Secondary flow and testing

5.6 (U) Manufacturing Scale-Up . . . 5.7 (U) Human Factors .. . . . .. . 5.8 (U) The North Korean Economy

6 (U ) ESTIMATED TIMELINES 6. 1 (U) How Long Does it Take? . 6.2 (U) W here Are They Now?

7 (U ) INDICATORS 7. 1 (U) Making Centrifuges 7.2 (U) Operating the Centrifuges .

(U) Appendix A: Briefing Slides and Figures

(U ) Appendix B: CHOP

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39 40 42 43 46 47 ~8

51 51 53

54 54 56

58

110

(U ) Appendix C: Towards Better Estimates of Program Size 113

(U ) Appendix D: Size of an Enrichment Cascade Facility 115

(U) Appendix E: Motor Windings 116

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1 (U) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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(U / / FOUO} Our report concludes with a. list of possible iJ1telligence

indicators for the various steps, most already well-known; these are not re

peated m this summary.

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2 (U) INTRODUCTION

(U //FOUO) On Juoe 15, 2009i responding to threatened UN sanctions,

North Korea stated, "enough success has been made in developing uramum

enrichment technology .. . to allow the !necessary?] experimental procedure.

The process of uranium enrichment will be commenced."

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2.1 (U) JASON Charge

(U //POUO) The formal charge to JASON is as follows:

(U//FOUO) "The Director of Nalional Intelligence's Nort.h Korea Mis

::;ion Manager. in conjunction \lr'1th the Nat.ional Counter Proliferation Center

and the National J ntelligence Officer for Wea.pons of Mass Destruction re

quest the JASONs undertake a summer study on the t.opic of Nort.h Korea ·s

technical prowess and ability to construct and operate a uranium enrichment

centnfuge capability. The Study will have as goals:

• (U //FOUO) Determine if Norr,h Korea is technically capable of build

ing centrifuges, constructing an enrichment faci1ity. and operating ce11-

trifuges with little or no outside assistance.

• ( U //FO UO) Examine those North Korean industries, processes. and/or

technologies that are analogous or might. provide a useful fouudation

to those needed in centrifuge con~truction and operation."

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2.2 (U) Organization of this Report

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{U//FOUO)The PowerPomt briefing slides that accompany this report

as Appendix A are an integral part of the report. While the narrative text in

this report is self-contained, we will not repeat in the report body the figures

and photographs that are in the briefing slides; rather, as they are discussed

they will be referred t.o here by slide number .

This report is organized as follows:

(U//FOUO) In Section 3, we set the stage by discussing die large differ

ences between modern (say, post-1985) manufacturing practices in the indus

trialized world . a.nd those practices that are likely to be the uorm in North

Korea, a. count.ry whose industry is mostly (but not completely!) caught in

what we might think of as a pre-1960 time warp. IODNI (b)(3) I

(U//FOUO) In Section 4, we rev iew the basics of gas centrifuge physics

and engineering. \Vhile this topic is covered in many open-source publica

tions, the summary given here is necessary for understanding the basis of our

subsequent con cl us ions.

(U //FOUO) In Section 5 we discuss m turn the various "long poles'' or

hurdles that may fa.cc NK, and assess whether and how they might reasonably

be expected ro overcome them .

(U //F'OUO) In Section 6, we attempt to consolidate our assessments

into a notional tinieline 1md to draw some concl usions.

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(U //FOUO) In Section 7, we suggest intelligence indicators (mof.>t al

ready recognized by others) that could potentially shed light on where N K

is along tt c timeline.

2 .3 (U) Acknowledgments

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3 (U) MANUFACTURING APPROACHES

(U//FOUO) We begin ·with a discussion that might seem peripheral

r.o the subject at hand. but. , we think, is in fact central: How does modern,

U.S. and developed world. manufacturing practice d iffer from what we expect

North Korea to be capable of?

3.1 (U) Modern Manufacturing in the Developed World

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3.3 (U) B est Guesses for N K P ractices

(U //FOUe) We have attempted to crystalize t.he discussions of the t.wo

preceding sections into 11 set of plausible, perhaps even likely, design and

m<tnufaccuring practices that Nort.h Korea might bring to bear on a gas

centrifuge effort. T hese are the practices that, in the rest of this report , we

\Yill apply to the specifics of centrifuge de.sign .

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3.3. l A previous US effort .at avoiding mirror imaging

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4 (U ) CENTRIFUGE BASICS

(U//FOUO~ We now tum to the phvsie:s and eng,ineenng basic:-; of gas

centnfugc design . The figures in Slides 10 and 11 should be consulted at this

pomt.

4.1 (U) Basic Ideas Due to Zippe

(U//FOUO) The enduring basic ideas of uranium separating gas cen

t.rifugcs arc due to Gernot Zippe, who dcw~J oped them in the USSR in the

1940s <ind 1950s. and ~hen re-implemented them in the US in the late 19.SOs

(U//FOUO) A Zippe-derived centrifuge has these key features (see Slides)

• (U//FOUO) It uses high g-forces to create a vacuum on-axis, where it

is fed . Thus seals between the rotati1tg <lnd fixed components arc:' not

needed .

• (U//POUO) It u::;cs a slow counter-current, circulating between r.hc

top <ind bottom of the vertical centrifuge to create what amounts to an

internal cascade (further explanation later), and to obviate the need

for precise positioning of the prod uct. and tailing scoops in t he radial

dirPct1on .

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• (U/f FOU 0 ) Its top magnetically suspended bearing na.t.urnlly allows

acceptable wobbie wit.hont damage , 11nd also reduces the load on the

bottom needle-bearing.

• (U //FOUO) ft maintains vacuum ruound the cylindricaJ rotor by a

simple helical groove. the so-called "molecular pump" 1 machined into

the \'acuum case . The molecular pump has no moving parts.

• (U /lf'OUO) It is powered by an electric motor that uses the bottom ro

t.or end-cap as a passive magnetic rotor: there are no rotating electrical

components.

• (U//fOUOj It may, but need not, have bellows that allow operation

above the first one or two resonance frequencies (more on this below).

4.2 (U) Physics Performance and Scaling Laws

(U//F OUO) Zippe-derived centrifuges involve an elegant interplay be-

tween their physic;:; and engineering features . The essential physics has two

parts:

(U//FOUO) First, under the high g-force of the rotation 1 heavier 1.1238,

as UF 0 , diffuses radially outward , while lighter U235 diffuses radially inward .

In equilibrium, t.his wouid produce a concentration difference only....., 1 % over

a useful densicy range .

( U//FOUO) Howe\·er , second, t.he counter-current causes enriched prod

uct to move slowly a..xia.lly upward, while deplet.ed ta.il ing-s move slowly axi

ally dow?1ward. Since the,..._, 1 % grndient hi refreshed radially during this s]o,v

drift. the result is a kind of cascade that produces a concentration difference

of as much as ,.,_, 20% between the top and bottom of the rot.or .

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(U//F OUO) The maximum rate of separative work of a countercurrent.

ga;3 centrifuge is given by Dirac 14]: 2

oU = D ((M2 - Mi)(wr)2) ~z rnar P "k 7. ?

~ ·B w

( 4-1)

where pis the gas density and D its self-d1ffusiv1ty (the product is indepen

dent of density for dilute gases), A12 and Af1 are the molecular masses of the

gases to be separated, u-' is the angular velocity, r is the cyllnder outer radius,

u = ..vr its peripheral speed and Z :s 1t.s length.

(U //FOUO) The separative power is essentially independent of the gas

density. althongh this ent.ers indirectly tbrough the effect of kinematic v1s

cosit.y (ex: l/ p) on the countercurrent flow pattern.

(U//FOUO} Expressed iu kg-SWU units (where 5000 kg-SWUs pro

duces about 20 kg of HEU) , equation (4-1) can be ""Tit.ten as

kg-SWU (300°I<) (J\!2 - M1 \ 2

( v ) 1

( Z ) ~10 -- ----) - . year T 3 amu 400 en/sec 1 m

(4-2)

In equation

(-1-2) one sees how t.he capacity of a centrifuge scales against nominal values

of length .z and rot.or circumferential velocity u, the two most important

parameters.

(U //FOUO) Empirically, according to rl.ata presented by Whitley [4).

pD ex T, al though elementary kinetic theory for monatomic gases would

suggest a scaling e< T 1t 2. The origin of the discrepancy may lie in the cou

pling between vibrational and translational degrees of freedom. In diatomic

molecules vibrational frequencies of bonds involving first period elements

such as N, 0 and F are generally at energies O(l000-2000) 0 1< x k8 , and are

not rnucb excited at room temperatures. In UF6 the frequencies ar lower ,

part.ly because with a heavy atom a one end of the bond the reduced ma.<:s is

greater by a factor of aLout 2, and partly because with a total of :-;even atoms

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some of the modes a.re at lower frequencies than a simple diatomic stret.cbing

mode. Superelastic collisions may make the effective (momentum transfer)

mean free path an increasing function of temperature, thus increasing D at.

higher tempera tures.

(U//POUO) At fixed penpheral speed the separative power is indepen

dent of radius. This may appear surprising, but the relative drift speed is

proportional to the eentripet.11.l acceleration u2 fr, and hence inversely propor

tional to the radius, canceling tbe proportionality of the surface area. The

difference in equilibrium rni.x fractions depends only on l he peripheral veloc

ity and is independent of radius if the velocity is held constant . Cohen [3J

points out that the radius is chosen for mechanical reasons.

(U//POUO) We also not.e the dependence on temperature. This is not

steep, and is limited by the rapid falloff of UF6 vapor pressure as tt'mpera~ure

decreases (the equation is invalid and separatory power falls off rapidly if t.he

vapor density is so low that it t'nt.ers thr free molecular flow regime) . A

modest degree of rnoling is readily provided if the vacuum case (coupled

radiatively to the rot.or) is t>ooled by wrapping ii with chilled wa.ter pipes. A

more important. benefit of even modest cooling may be the large reduction of

vapor density on axis (by a factor of 45 between 273"K an<l 323°K, if u = 400

m/s) . This rela..xes demands on t.he molPcular pump and decreases sensitivity

to 1na.nufact.uring imperfections that limit its performance. It also reduces

windage loss. Cr<•cp, a significant issue with aluminum (but not steel) rotors,

d1:creases rapidly as temperature is lowered. Cooling may be an indicaLor of

problems with rotor tolerance or of the use of aluminum rotors.

4.3 (U) Importance of Rotor Material Strength

(U//FOUO) The great :;ensitivity to u is apparent in equation (4-2),

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and explains why material streni?,"th (or, more accmatcly, strength-to-wdght

ra.tio) is the most. severely stressed design parameter in gas centrifuges. Cen

tnfuge rotors are made out of high strength-to-weigln materials: maraging

:;teeL aluminum a.Hoy, or (with modern technology) carbon fiber reinforced

polymers. We discuss this further in Sections 4.6 and 5.4.

4.4 (U) Maintaining the Counter-Current Flow

(U //FOHO) The counter-current fl.ow is rising in Lhe interior of the rotor

and descending near its wall. This sense of flow is driven by two effects. acring

together:

• (U //FOUO) Most of thr energy dissipation, typically estimated at

about 30 W per centrifuge , occurs at the bottom as bearing friction

and motor inefficiency. Like water in a pot heated on a stove, the

warmed gas at. th<~ bottom tends to rise. At the rotor wall t,h]s rise

is hindered by viscous friction (a rough estimate shows th~t, for a. gas

prel'\Sure a.t the wall of 0.1 bar. the Reynolds number of countercurrent.

flow l:lt 1 m/sec is roughly 30; this would decre11se in inverse proportion

to the density, but even at, Re= 30 viscous drag is significant) , setting

up an upward flow in the rnterior.

• (U//FOUO) The bottom scoop is immersed in the supersonic azimuthal

flow , and is a significant source of drag. This d rives an Ekman circu

lation very simi lar to the clas.-sical Ekman pumping driven by friction

at the bottom of a stirred vessel (wh ich is why a.znnuthal stirring of a

coffee cup rapidly mixes its contents, and why the fluid rotation damps

much faster than the naive vbcous damping time) . Because the ro

tation at the height of the scoop (or the hottom of the coffee cup) is

slowed by drag, the radial pressure gradient there is reduced. Hence

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there is a downward vertical pressure force at the rotor wall that drives

fluid downward (from higher layers with a larger centrifugal pres.sure

gradient) imo the slower layer, "'ith a return flow nearer the rotor axis.

The rotating baffi.c separates the countercnrrent flow from the drag of

the upper scoop , which wo11ld tend to drive the flmv in the opposite

direction.

4. 5 (U) Cascade Principles

(U / /FOUO) The quadratic depeudence on the mass difference and the

centripetal a.cceleration (itself proportional to the square of the peripheral

speed) results from these factors coming in twice: once in the sedimentation

force and once in the difference in equilibrium mix fractions.

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A well engineered and operated centrifuge could thus

produce separatory work at a rate of about 5 kg-SWU per meter of length.

Significantly lower values ar<~ likely unti l extensive operational experiP-nce is

obtained; Kemp (his Fig. 2.-1) suggests tha.t for a moderate degree of opti

mization 2 kg-SWU/(m-yr) may be realistic .

(ll//POUO) Dirac 's original report is not. eac;ily obtained. A succinct

treatment (and tht~ definitive theory of cascades) is givcu by Cohen [3j. Al

though issued by a major publisher rh1s cau also be hard to find (a xerox

copy is in the .JASON library) . Whitley [4] is the most convenient reference.

but cont.ai us some typogni.phical errors.

4.6 (U) Instabilities and Bellows

(U) An excessively narrow and long centrifuge has very little flexural

stiffness. hence low resonant (critical) frequencies that are 1ndependent of

wall thickness. At fixed v, the rot.ation rate w/27i ex: 1/r. 1f the rotor is to

be operated below the first critical speed (lowest flexural resonance), it. must

have a length-to-diameter ratio

Z/d::; L85(E/a) 114. (4-3)

Ti:Jisfollows from Whitley'sEq . 4 (Part II , p. 70): Z/d $ (1 85/v11'2)(E/p) 11·1•

taking v2 = t:J/p. If v2 < cr/p then the limit on Z/d is somewhat relaxed ,

but efficient separation (oUrrna ex: uJ at coustFLnt E/a and oUma:r ex: ·o3 s at

constant E/p) requires v to be as l~rge as possible.

(l.) It may seem smprising that a result for infinitesimal oscillations of

an elastic tnbe should depeud on its peripheral velocity (gyr~copic effects

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are negligible) , or, eliminating 1J , on its yield strength . The depe!ldcncc on

v arises from usmg Rayleigh's (The Theory of Sound 1877) equation for the

ftexural mode frequency, equi'lting it to the rotational frequency u; = t'/r.

(U //:FOUO) In general, two-dimen:;ional materials are described by

three elastic constants. one for tensile stiffness in each of two principal direc

tions and one for shear (the modulus matrix mfly be diagonalized, with only

two diagonal elements. but the direction of its principal a.'\:es requires a third

parameter to describe). Th is is familiar for ·woven fabrics with fibers i11 two

orthogonal directions· they are st.iff along t.he fiber directions (in general,

with two different stiffnesses if the warp and woof have different numbers of

fibers per unit length . or fibers with different properties) but may he very

compliant in oblique directions if the fibers readily slide over each other .

The tenl)ile stre11gth of carbon fiber reinforced materials in directions oblique

to their fibers (even by sma.ll angles) may be much redrn . .:ed by plastic flow

or era.eking of the matrix and subsequent sliding of tbe fibers. Because the

important parameters are hoop strength and longitudinCll stiffness (with the

separatory (·apa.city proportioual to the 7 /4 power of the first and l/..J power

of t.he ;.;econd}, an optimal tayup might be 1/8 longitudinal fibers and 7 /8

a.zimut.hal fibers. rather than a helical layup.

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(U//FOUO) Uniaxia.I tensile strengths up to 45 kbar (''super high t.en

s11e'' fibf~r) are reported , but , pa.rt1rnliuly because when failure occurs it .is

catast.rophlC, it 1s probably appropriate t.o assume a lesser strength of 30

kbar and modulus of l Mbar (''high t.ensilc. low modulus" fiber: definitions

and estimated properties from wikipedia}. Allowing for t.he weaJi:er epoxy

matrix and the need fo1 fibers in two directious suggests t.hat a conservative

a.<;sur.1pt.ion would be ad>= 10 kbar a.nd Ez: = 1 Mba.r. Then. noting a den

sity of l 8 gm/cm3 , the ma.xi mum v = 745 rn/sec and the limit on subcrit.ical

length Z/d < 5.85. The potential advantage of using rarbon fibers to achei,·e

high v is evident., bul the technology is nm. easy, and the complex anisotropic

11Clt-urc (that may depend on manufacturing details) of these composit.es is

unforgiving in such a ~Mengt.h-critical application .

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5 (U) WHAT ARE THE LONG POLES?

5.1 (U) Precision or exotic machining

(U//FOUO) As a lready ment ioned, Zippe-derived centrifuges a rf' in

most respects a rti fac ts of 1950s machining technology, and can be made in

a machine shop of fairly modest proport ions. Indeed, Zippe's original paper

[2] gives a sense of the scale of t he necessary development effort:

(U //FOUO) [In 1958,] before any technical work could be

started, it was necessary to equip the laboratory in the desired

manner. T he best space avai lable for the work was an old student

cafeteri a bu ilding recently abandoned by t he University. I t. offered

t he promise of adequate space but a complete dismant ling of the

old food-handling equipment and a thorough cleaning were in

order before the installation of fixt ures and services sui table for

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scientific endeavor was possible.

(U//FOUO) A smaJl machine shop has been installed in this

laboratory building. This was suitable for about 90% of the

mechanical work required for the project. The remaining 10%,

usually requiring heavier machinery, has been done either in the

Physics Department shop or in the main shop of the Research

Laboratones for the Engineering Sciences.

(U //FOUO) A room for t.he handling of U F 6 was added later

and a mass spectrometer was inst.ailed.

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~ (S)

~ (S)

(U//!i'OUO) These arc the cri t. ical tolerances "to make it work" . Vir

tually all other tolerances need only be good enough "to make it fit" . The

for mer require engineering, t.he latter only craftsmanship.

ISh'RD I (U / /POUO~

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5.1.1 (U) Stationary magnet holder clips

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IDOE (b)(3) I -'PS-f- /NOFORN fltBQJ 85030-007 /09

Pa,ge 30

-

5.2 (U) Frequency Converters and Motors

( U //FOUO ) Centrifuges require variable-frequency electrical controllers

at pow<:'r levels ,...., 100 W each. and probably less during steady operation:

several centrifugci::; can share a freqnency converter. Frequency converters

draw power from the line power and convert the incoming 50-60 Hz AC volt

age into the variable AC voltages in the 0.1 - 1 kHz range that are required

to drive the hysteresis/synchrouous ccntnfuge motor.

/NOFOR!q~

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5.2.1 (U) Commodity audio amplifier chips

(U J/FOUO) The drive frequencic:s required for the motor drive are of

order 0.1 to l kHz a.ud the output power required for the mot.or drive is of

order 100 W . Both of these requirements can be met by generic audio power

amp lifiers, such as the TDA 8950 (NXP Semiconductor: Netherlands) . When

configured as a single-channel bri<lge-tied load, this class-D audio amplifier

can drive :JOOW into an 8 ohm load with less than 0.53 harmonic distortion.

Tt is available for $4.50 in quantities of 100.

5.2.2 (U) Commodity microcontrollers

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-5.2.3 (U) Commodity power supplies

(U //FOUO) The most stre:;sing requirement of the power supply is to

provide lOOW ar ±36 V to the audio amplifier. Sevcrai generic power supplies

c:a.n be used to rucct this requirement. One example is the SWS300-36 AC

DC converter (TDK-Lambda: Ja.pan), whic:h provides as much as 8 7 A at

36 V DC derived from the AC power line. These AC-DC conveners arc

avail<:Lb)e for $121 in quantities of 10.

(U //FOUOJ All other power rt::qu1rements. such~ t.he 5 \I required w

drive the microcontrollcr , are much Jess stressrng. These caJl either be derived

from the 36 V source using a vollage regulator or independently using r.heir

own AC-DC eonvencr.

5.2.4 (U) Other features

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-5.3 (U) Rotor Material and Fabrication

(U//POUO) Here we discuss both the fabrication of the rotors, and the

technology of the maraging steel out of which they are fabricated.

5.3.1 (U) Maraging steel

(U //FOUO) Maraging steel is a martcnsitic preciptation-hardencd very

lo·w carbon steel. It is a commodity item for specialized industrial uses.

mostly aerospace. Suppliers arc easy to locate on the Internet. The word

"maraging" is a contraction of "martensite" and "aging", referring to how it

is made:

• (U / / FOUO) The desired alloy of iron , nickel , and a particular combi

nation of cobalt , molybdenum , titanium, and/or i:iluminum (that will

precipitate as intermeta!lics phases) is smelted in a vacuum furnace.

The nickel , a component. of ordinary st.ainless steels. does not form an

intermet.al lic precipitate, but contributes to corrosion resistance.

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• (U//FOUO) Cast as a preform. it is annealed at 800°C to austenitc.

• (U//POUO) The preform is quenched (air cooicd) to martensit.c. This

produces a relatively soft material that can be cold worked (e.g. , flow

formed) as desired.

• (t: //FOUO) When the final hardening is desired, t he part is "aged"

for 4 hours at 500°C. This causes intcrmet.all ic phases to precipitate ,

giving t.he steel its hardness.

-

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(U //FOUO) Ma.raging steel can be v: lded, but must be rr-R.ged after

welding Lo recover its hardnes:;. Possibly the annealing and qucnchmg sr.eps

would also need to be repeated before re-aging; a good metallurgist could <le

t.ermine tliis experiruentaJly in the co11rse of developing any part.irnlar welding

process step.

( U 11FOU8-) Maragmg steel tubes must be passivated to protect them

from the corrosive effects of Uf 6 The standard method Is to use steam

There is an open literature on the subject. (see Slide 39)

5.3.2 (U) Flow forming

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5.3.3 (U ) Final hydroforming

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-5.4 (U) Bellows

(U //POU 0) Slendei tubes have resonant instabilities that must be

pHsscd through on spin-up (see Section 4.6, above, and Slide lG) . There

a.re two possible way~ to deal with resonances: (1) Always operate subcriti

cally. with rotor speed less than the first resonance. or (2) engineer a method

for passing 5afoly through the first one or two resonances .

(l"f/FOUO) For any given material, material propertie~ dictate the

largest. hP.i.gbt-to-diameter ratio that will support subcritical operation at its

ri1.aximum rotational speed. For a nominal marnging steel 350 with E = 2.1

Mbar. Cf = 350,000 psi = 23.8 khar , p = 8.1 gm/cm3 , v = 540 m/s and

Z./d < 5.67. For aluminum Al-0061-T6. for which E = 68 GPa and u is

a6Ciut 2.4 kbar, Z/d < 7.6. For the higher strcng'Th Al-7075-T6 with E = 72

GPa and er = 4.3 kbar, Z/d < 6.65 at its fast.er limiting speed

(U //FOUO) Zippe introduced bcliows (see Slide 17) to reduce the flex

ural stiffness of the rotor tube for low modes, an<l thus to move their fre

quencies to much lower values. At these lower frequences there b not as

much rotritional energy in the rotor when it passes through r€'sonance, and

the pas.sage can he rna<lc quickly and safely.

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~(S/~ -5.5 (U) Centrifuge-Specific Know-H ow

5.5.1 (U) Upper Suspension M agnets

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5 .5.2 (U) Rotor testing and balancing

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-( U //FO UOj Accurate balancing is required to ma.iutain clearance, that

might he nominal ly 1 mm, hetwcen the rotor and r.lte molecular pump. The

rotor !:>pins about. it.s center of rnass (the center of mas::. of its cross-sect ion if it

is accurately cylindrical). It the wall thicknes::. were to vary as one sinusoidal

wave around the circ 11rr.ference (a lowest-mode man11facturing imperfection)

with amplitude 6. then its center of mass would depart from its geometrical

axis hy an amount b. = 0.5H.6/w, where R is its radius and 11· its wall

tbickness. lf we demand b. < 0 5 mm and take R = 72.5 mm and w = 0.35

mm. then we require J < 5 µ.

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5.5.3 (U) Bearing and damping testing

(l//FOUO) The nat.ural "t1pµing" (in,·erted µendulum) frequency of

the rotor about its lower needle/ball support might be measured rn the stati c:

t.est stand I.JV an oscilliscopc fed by a t.;apacitance gauge. This corresponds

to a vE>ry low frequency resonance that. must be traversed at. the beginning £ .

OL spm-up.

(U//FOUO) The resroring horizontal force is determiner! by the leng1h

of the "dips''. themselves acting as port.ions of a compound pendulum. The

damping of this oscillation is provided by viscou:s dissipation in the oil-filled

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Page 43

support . The design sbows screws that can be used to tune the damping by

adjusting t.be thickness of t.he viscous oil layer,

-5.5.4 (U) Secondary flow and test ing

(U//FOUO) Cla.c;sical (subsonic, uniform-density) Aow in Lhe interior of

rotating cylinders supports a. set of flow-instability modes. Arrn.lysis of ttow

in a centrifuge is further complicated by the large radial density gradient ..

The high rnolecular weight, (352) and low adiabaLic exponent (r ::::= 1.07 [·l})

of UFG and its consequent. low speed of sound (at 300°.K 'LIJFc = 87m/s vs.

rta.ir = 347 m/s; cf. 400 m/s circumferential speeds) results in supersonic flow

wit.Ii rei:;µect t,o any stationary :,trucLures. such as t,he product and waste

~oo~s , nedr the rotor. Thus, the Aow pas1 Lhc scoops produces shocks. a.:;

does a pitot t.ubc in supersonic A.ow. that generate shear layers from shock

Cll:\l'lture <:1nd that disLurb ao<l can sepmat.c boundary layers on impiugemcnl

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with walls Such effects increase mixing that must be minimized . The upper

baffic~ shields the flow from the top scoop

(U //FOUO) In the la.borator.v frame , where nou-rotating cornponent.s

live. secondary-flow ve)ocities are much smaller than the azimuthal velocit.\'.

To a stationary observer, t.he flow in the centrifuge interior resembles a tightly

wound hclb• if no additional instabilities develop. In thn rotating frame ..

t.b e flow is as depicted in Slide 15 of the briefing (Appendix A), except for

complications arising from Coriolis forces on the radial flow at the ends. The

top l.Ja.fflc mitigates a nd isola.tcs effects from tertiary flows (Ekman spirnl)

that are likely to re:-;ult from such forces.

(U tfFOUOr Such flow issues mgue flgainst diagnosing and tuning the

secondary How wit.h intrusive means, such as probes, as these will likely

c~usc significant disturh;:in<:es t.hemsf'lves. The secondary flow could be dia.g

nose <l Ly using surrogal.cs fort.he conos1ve UFt;. While no common surrogate

rna.tches UF6 exactly (352 mol wt , \'apor pressure 1 atm at 56°C), brackct.

ing al different temperatures or rot.ation speeds eould be obt.ained by using

tetrnet.hyl lead (:323 moL wt.. vapor pressure 15 torr at. 84°C) or t.ctramet.h)·l

lead (267 mol. wt., vapor pressure 22.5 torr at 20°C).

{U//FOUO ) Zippe used Freon compounds for his preliminary work a t

the Univcrsit.,v of Virginia but cv0ntt1<'l..lly employed :i mass spectrometer (MS)

to al)sav the sepMative performance of his test centrifuges. This is a re81-

time process that allows optimization of the secondary flow (for example, by

R.dding heat at the bottom m addition to that provided b~- the rnowr drive) .

( 1J //FO UO) In testing a prototype centrifuge it is necessary to know

this "equilibrium time'' --the time f,,, for the centrifuge enriclrnient to :;ettle

ro a new value after a cha.nge in parameters This is the mean residence time

for uFn within the centrifuge and is given by the mass !Vic of UF11 contained

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Page 45

divicied by the feed rat~ to the centrifuge, Fr . We will first calculate Fr a11d

then estimate Me for a typical ('(mtrifuge.

('U //FOUO ) Assume a feed rate Fr grams/second to the cent.rifuge that

produces F,./2 of single-stage enriched product of enha.nced in U-235 by a

factor (1 + e) and Fr/2 of smgle-stage product stripped by a factor (1 - e).

The separative work ~U per unit of feed is e2 /2 ([-1] Eq A7) . For a typical

countcrcurrent centrifuge wit.h enr ichment factor 1.05 and stripping factor

U.95 . 6.U is t.h\ls 1.25 x 10- 3 kg-SWU per kg of feed . For a nominal cent.rifuge

with a separative power of 3 kg-SWU f.vr. the feed is thus 2400 kg/yr and F.

= 76 mg/s.

(U //FOUO) For a centrifuge of length Z = 1 m and radius R == 7

c m. the mass of contaiu~d UF 6 i::; the product of the rotor surface area, the

dens ity of UF6 at the rotor (at a µressure le&; t he.n ih; vapor pressure) and its

C<:!ntri fugal ("gravi tation ai .. ) SC"ale height. Scaling to an operating pressure

of 0 .1 atmosphere at the rot.or wall, we find a density at the wall of 1.57

mg/cm3 and a srnle height of about 3.5 mm. Thus /\Jc = 2420 mg.

(U//FOUO] The settling t ime le = ;\fc/ Fr = 32 sec-. This is an upper

limit to le because the separative work output of a centrifuge is independent

of gc:IS denwity; if t.he ma.chine ii; operated at lower densit.y. Fr would rema in

76 mg/s. but 1Wc aIJd le would be correspondingly smaller

(l'//F OUO) In a. test ma.chine. t.hc feed rate would be determined by a

valve set.ting, and t.he operating pressure by valves ill the product and wa.ste

lines to en~ure that it. remain below the vapor pressure at. tbe operat.ing

temperature. The enrichment. would be monitored by mass spectrometer,

perhaps as frequently as every minute, as the heating 1s adjusted to opt1rmze

the secondary circulation. After optimizat.ion. in production centrifuges the

valvet-; might be replaced by constrictions in the feed, product and tni1ing

lines. The heating by the waste heat of the motor cou~d be set by a coating

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witb appropriate emissivity on t.be lower end cap of thf' rotor.

5.6 (U) Manufacturing Scale-Up

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5.7 (U) Human Factors

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5.8 (U) The North Korean Economy

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6 (U) ESTIMATED TIMELINES

6.1 (U) How Long Does it Take?

-

4. ~

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6.2 (U) Where Are T hey Now?

•

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7 (U) INDICATORS

7.1 (U) Making Centrifuges

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(U) Appendix A: Briefing Slides and Figures

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JASON 2009

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NK Capabilities (U)

JSR-09-510 Summer 2009

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North Korea Capabilities

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North Korea Centrifuge Capabilities (S)

JASON 2009

JSR-09-510 Summer 2009

Participants:

--·---

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North Korea Capabilities 2


We thank the government briefers for outstanding, well-organized presentations

JASON 2009

);:- Briefers to JASON

IIIII-

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Summary of what the US knows

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~f:CRf.. T/tlOt OR~I~

JASON Task Statement (paraphrase)

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JASON 2009 North Korea Capabilities 5

I

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II

6


FOUU

Manufacturing Best Practice in Industrialized Countries

);:> The fundamental principle is interface control and change control.

~ All parts are fully defined in design by their geometry, materials specifications, and tolerances - 30 CAD always - software verification of fit (e.g. , SolidWorks) - parts are always interchangeable

);:> Design and manufacturing are different engineering disciplines - train engineers to "design for manufacturability" - manufacturer gets to choose the processes while meeting specs - manufacturer gets to change technologies with production rate - bidding on cost encourages production scalability

~ Identical parts can be obtained from different manufacturers - ISO 9000, etc. - certified processes - touch labor and rework are anathemas

~ Properly designed and manufactured parts do not need piece-part testing - Motorola Six Sigma, etc.

""

JASON 2009 North Korea Capabilities

!DOE (b)(3) I

7

• • • • • •

JASON 2009

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tOUO

The basic ideas (Zippe, 1950s)

Uppe1 )> high g-force makes vacuum on axis (111<.gnoltL)

seals not needed BeA•••u F'aed Wostn Dlolrlbutor - feed on axis

)> counter-current creates large bottom-to-top Top E1u.1Cnv gradient

Mole,Ul;;i Pump - no delicate scooping within a scale height of

Casuig Top material Scoop

)> magnetic bearing naturally allows Balfto (rotalmg) acceptable wobble without damage

- and takes load off needle bearing

)> "molecular pump" is simply a machined ConterDOst helix in the case (•l~llonary) Bottom

Sroop - no moving parts

/I l:lollom )> motor uses bottom end cap as its magnetic F.11d C"p rotor vacuuin

Pump

)> bellows (not shown) allow operation above 1 or 2 resonances

£ivr. troma9nelic - move them to low speeds MolOJ'

JASON 2009 rouo North Korea Capabilities 10


FOUtJ

The physics is elegant



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The cascade principle is used both within a single 100E (b)(3) 1centrif uge and in the cascade of multiple centrifuges

- .. ., __ ~ + _ _ ... .-·-~ ------ --

' ,

Since the cascade is exponential, its length is approximately a logarithm. Each stage is an appropriate number of centrifuges in parallel.

nlimuer o stages - n · --· n .s ,,.,,., HEU'=" 92% L • f . . _ l ( 1 - J tail /prod ) I l ( ) fta.il 1 - J prod "'

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JASON 2009

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Bellows (1)



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1 tJUO

Zippe's original paper gives a sense of the scale

[ln 1958, ] before any technical work could be started, it was necessary to equip the laboratory in the desired manner_ The best space available for the work was an old student cafeteria building recently abandoned by the University . It offered the promise of adequate space but a complete dismantling of the old food-handling equipment and a thorough cleaning were in order before the installation of fixtures and services suitable for scientific endeavor was possible.

A small machine shop has been installed in this laboratory building. This was suitable for about 90% of the mechanical work required for the project. The remaining 10%, usually requiring heavier machinery , has been done either in the Physics Department shop or in the main shop of the Research Laboratories for the Engineering Sciences.

A room for the handling of UF6 was added later and a mass spectrometer was installed.


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JASON 2009 ~1-.. , . , , , · 11 , 11~ !DOE (b)(3) I North Korea Capabilities 24

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!DOE (b)(3) I

JASON 2009 28

Approved for release by ODNI on 6/8/2016, FOIA Case DF-2011--00033.



rouo

Software workbench for the microcontroller is a commodity item



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north korea centrifuge capabilities (redacted) · 5.1 (u) precision or exotic machining _ . . . 25...

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