NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE JANUARY 2013Presented by Will Sinatra

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PDATE

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07Jul-0

7Se

p-07

Nov-07Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08Jul-0

8Se

p-08

Nov-08Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09Jul-0

9Se

p-09

Nov-09Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10Jul-1

0Se

p-10

Nov-10Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11Jul-1

1Se

p-11

Nov-11Jan-12

Mar-12

157000

159000

161000

163000

165000

167000

169000

171000Average Quarterly Employment

Total Industrial Employment on the North Shore from Jan 2007 to March 2012

• Recession period from 4th Quarter 2007 to 4th Quarter 2009

• Recovery period from 4th Quarter 2009 to 4th Quarter 2011

Source: EOLWD, LAUS, 1/07-3/12

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PDATEThe Recession on the North Shore 4th Quarter 2007- 4th Quarter 2009

The North Shore 4th Quarter 2009 Employment is 154,651• 5,121 jobs lost during this period • 3% decline

4th Quarter 2009 Employment 4Q 07- 4Q 09 Percent Change

Utilities

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Transportation and Warehousing

Information

Public Administration

Finance and Insurance

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Administrative and Waste Services

Other Services

Professional and Technical Services

Accommodation and Food Services

Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing

Durable Goods Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Educational Services

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

801

1,584

1,898

3,117

3,130

3,207

5,654

5,757

5,899

6,125

6,552

7,491

7,796

14,989

4,298

12,262

16,560

16,863

26,344

30,402

-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%

4.8%

-3.2%

-12.0%

-3.3%

2.9%

7.0%

-2.3%

-5.8%

-4.0%

-21.3%

-11.0%

4.4%

-6.9%

-0.3%

-9.6%

-19.3%

-17.0%

4.4%

-2.3%

6.3%

Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ07-4thQ09

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PDATE

NE employment at 402,017 but lost 15,500 jobs during this period, a 3.7% decline

Northeast Region

Massachusetts

MA employment at 3,009,046 but lost 130,000 jobs during this period, a 4.0% decline

Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center

Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center

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PDATEOutcome of the Recession

4th Q2007-4th Q2009

Areas of Significant

Change North Shore Northeast Massachusetts/

All Regions

Gained Jobs Information Management of Companies Health Care, Education

Lost Jobs --- Wholesale, Information

Manufacturing, Construction, Administrative Support & Waste Services, Financial Services, Professional & Technical Services, Retail

Recession Outcomes:• Health Care and Education gained employment• Manufacturing, Construction, Administrative Support Waste

Services, Financial Services, and Real Estate were the hardest hit

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PDATEThe Recovery on the North Shore 4th Quarter 2009 – 4th Quarter 2011

The North Shore total employment in the 4th Quarter 2011 was 168,911 • recovered 4,267 Jobs during this period• 2.6% growth

4th Q 2011 Employment 4Q 09- 4Q 11 Percent Change

Utilities

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Transportation and Warehousing

Information

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Public Administration

Finance and Insurance

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Administrative and Waste Services

Other Services

Professional and Technical Services

Accommodation and Food Services

Educational Services

Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing

Durable Goods Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

732

1,568

1,834

3,096

3,161

3,262

5,373

5,566

6,076

6,257

7,124

8,041

8,095

15,717

17,014

4,182

13,106

17,288

26,408

31,820

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

-8.5%

-1.0%

-3.4%

-1.1%

-1.4%

4.7%

-5.0%

-3.3%

3.0%

2.2%

8.7%

7.3%

3.8%

4.9%

0.9%

-2.7%

6.9%

4.4%

0.2%

4.7%

Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ09-4thQ11

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PDATENortheast Recovery 417,486 Employment, 3.6% Growth

Massachusetts Recovery 3,234,889 Employment, 2.9% Growth

4th Q

uarter 2011 Employm

ent4

th Quarter 2011

Employm

ent

4thQ 09-4thQ 11 Percent Change

4thQ 09-4thQ 11 Percent Change

Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing

Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Public Administration Finance and Insurance

Wholesale Trade Construction

Administrative and Waste Services Other Services

Professional and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services

Educational Services Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing

Durable Goods Manufacturing Manufacturing

Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

1,437 5,243

3,819 10,149 10,500

6,868 14,632

11,907 15,162

18,020 21,175

18,163 28,605

33,526 40,495

15,256 44,332

59,588 48,604

68,844

-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

-7.8%-12.3%

-4.1%0.7%

-2.3%4.1%

-1.7%1.9%

1.4%6.6%

14.0%7.4%

5.4%6.2%

0.1%0.7%

5.3%4.1%

1.7%6.0%

Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing

Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Public Administration Finance and Insurance

Wholesale Trade Construction

Administrative and Waste Services Other Services

Professional and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services

Educational Services Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing

Durable Goods Manufacturing Manufacturing

Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance

0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000

13,99858,956

40,20698,219

90,10551,840

133,390167,969

124,078126,066

166,190138,436

264,611265,007

344,12187,269

167,053254,322

354,301535,214

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

2.0%0.7%0.8%

1.8%0.6%

4.7%-1.1%

-1.4%-1.6%

4.5%8.0%

7.0%5.1%

6.0%1.1%

-1.4%1.0%

0.2%3.1%

4.2%

Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ09-4thQ11

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PDATEAreas of Significant

Change North Shore Northeast Massachusetts/All Regions

GainedJobs Durable Goods Durable Goods, Professional

& Technical Services

Health Care,Accommodation & Food Services, Administrative Support and Waste

Services, Construction

Lost JobsUtilites, Public

Administration, Finance, Real Estate

Management of Companies, Real Estate Finance, Non-Durable Goods

Current State of Recovery

• Recovery Outcomes: • Health Care continues to grow• Education’s growth has slowed down• Manufacturing is returning, concentrated growth in Durable Goods

in the Northeast and North Shore• Very slow growth in Construction• Tourism pick up throughout

• Growth in Accommodation & Food Services and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation.

• Financial Services employment decline is nearly double the rate on the North Shore compared to the Northeast and Massachusetts

• Real Estate is weak on the North Shore and Northeast compared to Massachusetts

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PDATEUnemployment Rate for the USA, Massachusetts, and North Shore

• North Shore Unemployment follows Massachusetts• Seasonal Trends

• Rises in Dec-Jan and April/May-June• Falls from Feb-April/May and Sept-Oct• Remains steady during the Summer

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07Jul-0

7

Sep-07

Nov-07Jan

-08

Mar-08

May-08Jul-0

8

Sep-08

Nov-08Jan

-09

Mar-09

May-09Jul-0

9

Sep-09

Nov-09Jan

-10

Mar-10

May-10Jul-1

0

Sep-10

Nov-10Jan

-11

Mar-11

May-11Jul-1

1

Sep-11

Nov-11Jan

-12

Mar-12

May-12Jul-1

2

Sep-12

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

North Shore Northeast Massachusetts USA

Source: EOLWD, LAUS, 1/07-9/12

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PDATEUnemployment Challenges

Region Census Total Labor ForceUnder 35 35 & Over

% of Unemployed

% of Labor Force

% of Unemployed

% of Labor Force

USA 2009-2011 ACS 156,456,694 52% 36% 48% 64%

Massachusetts 2009-2011 ACS 3,573,919 48% 35% 52% 65%

Northeast 2008-2010 ACS 556,272 45% 32% 55% 68%

North Shore 2007-2011 ACS 220,038 47% 32% 53% 68%

• The Under 35 population are disportionately represented in the percentage of unemployed throughout the country

• The Northeast and North Shore Labor Forces are older than Massachusetts and USA

Northeast

Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center

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PDATEEducational Attainment of the Population Over 18 Years Old

EUC= Customer’s with more than 26wks of unemployment

Total EUC North Shore Masschusetts USA0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

8% 11% 14% 15%

51%

28% 25%29%

4%

19% 18%

24%

13%

8% 7%

7%

17%

21% 21%

17%

7%13% 14%

9%Graduate or professional degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

Less than High School

Sampling of Extended Unemployment Coverage customers enrolled from May19th to July 31stSource: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007-2011, 2008-2011

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PDATEWhat is the education data telling us?

• The North Shore has a comparable educational attainment level to the Northeast • The North Shore & Northeast

both have a lower rate of Graduate degrees than Massachusetts but a higher rate of Associates' and Some College

• Massachusetts, Northeast, and the North Shore all have an educational attainment higher than the USA.

• The EUC Cohort has an educational attainment lower than all regions

Northeast

Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center

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PDATE0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5% 8% 8%

16%11% 10% 12%

8%12%

77%

54%49% 31%

21%29% 27%

20%

28%

5%

5%

3%

36%

18%

17%

43%

18%

16%

7%

14%

13%

4%

8%

8%

3%

6%

8%

7%

13%

19%

12%

30%21%

14%

31%

20%

0%4%

8%1%

12% 15%

1%

17% 17% Graduate or professional degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

Less than High School

Source: Massachusetts One-Stop Employment System, MOSES

Educational Attainment by Age Groups for EUC, North Shore, & Massachusetts

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007-2011, 2008-2011

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PDATEWhat is the education data telling us?

• The population Under 35 has a higher educational attainment than the 35 and Over Cohort when considering the number still in High School and College• The North Shore and Northeast have similar educational attainments• Both regions are lower than Massachusetts

• However, the EUC Cohort has a reversal of the educational trends with the 35 and Over having a higher attainment level compared the Under 35 Cohort.• Both groups are lower than their regional counterparts

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PDATEPutting it all together

• The North Shore economy is still recovering from the recession

• If the current growth rate is maintained we should recover all jobs lost to recession by the end of 2013, but unemployment will still remain higher than prerecession levels due to population growth and individuals returning to the labor force.

• The unemployed will be at a disadvantage in returning to employment due to their lower level of educational attainment compared to their peers.• This is especially true for the Under 35 EUC group

• Opportunities should exist in Durable Goods manufacturing

Sample Durable Goods Manufacturing Jobs in Essex County

Occupation Employer City Salary

Electronic Assembler Raytheon Andover $40,000

Machinist Flowserve Lawrence $42,000

CNC Lathe Set-Up Sterling Machine Lynn $39,000

QC Inspector Johnson Controls Lynnfield $31,000

Mechanical Assembler Communication & Power Industries

Beverly $33,000

CNC Programmer A.W. Chesterton Company

Groveland $58,000

An online search of Wantedanalytics found 298 jobs in manufacturing posted from September 1st to January 8th

North Shore Labor M

arket Update

CON

TACT INFO

RMATIO

N

William SinatraPlanning & Data Analyst

North Shore Workforce Investment Board70 Washington Street, Suite 314

Salem, MA 01970(978) 741-3805

wsinatra@northshorewib.com