north slope rapid ecoregional assessment a bureau of land management project north slope borough...
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North SlopeRapid Ecoregional Assessment
A Bureau of Land Management Project
North Slope Borough Planning CommissionBarrow
October 30, 2014
Contents of this presentation
• A quick review of the project• Various players in the project• Your role
• Progress so far – examples of products
• Our future plan
ScienceIntegration
Project-level Monitoringfor Adaptive
Management
Ecoregional Direction
Field Implementation
Rapid & Other Ecoregional Assessments
Landscape-scale & other Inventories
AIM-Monitoring at multiple scales
Local-scale assessment,
inventory, and monitoring
BLM’s Landscape Approach
What is an REA?
REAs :
• Identify things of value in the environment and how they are changing over time, and what may be causing that change
• Focus on large areas and look at the really big picture instead of a particular lake or river
What does an REA provide?
REAs do not make decisions or allocate resources
They provide information and tools for land managers
• Current status of things of value in the environment• Future status (25, 50 years out)• Identify data gaps and science needs• Suggestions for land managers on how they might use
this information
North Slope Ecoregion Assessment Area
Roles and responsibilities
Project Team A team of scientists and researchers from UA
• Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP), • Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), and • Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP)
Facilitator from Margaret J. King and Associates.
Assessment Management Team (AMT)A team of land managers and experts in land management from various federal and state agencies that guide the project
Technical Team (Tech Team)Experts in various relevant science fields that evaluate and advise on the technical aspects
Assessment Components
Management Questions (MQs)
Conservation Elements (CEs)
Change Agents (CAs)
These are the things of value in the environment . They can be:
Conservation elements (CEs)
On land In water
Environment and associated conditions
Land cover (Ex: coastal plain)
Aquatic cover (Ex: shallow connected lakes)
Individual species Ex: Caribou Ex: Arctic grayling
Change agents
They change the status of the conservation elements Five primary agents of change:
• Human uses• Climate change• Fire• Permafrost• Invasive species
How it all works
Conservation ElementChange Agent
REAs collect and compile data, and estimate these impacts
Land managers, at all levels, can use this information in their decisions
Management Question
Phase IInitiation
Phase II
Preliminary management questions
Establish Assessment Management Team and technical team
Assessment Work Plan
Statements of work
Establish Contracts and Agreements
Conceptual Ecoregional Model Management questions (MQs) Conservation elements (CEs) Change agents (CAs)
Recommend Potential DatasetsTask 2 – 2 Months
Recommend Methods, Models, and Tools
Task 3 – 3 Months
Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP)
Task 4 – 2 Months
Task 1 – 3 Months
Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets
Task 5 – 3 Months
Conduct Analyses Generate Findings
Task 6 – 5 Months
Prepare REA Documents
Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total
Completed
Process Overview
Discovering and compiling data
Multi-step process of identifying, evaluating, and compiling useful data to answer the MQs.
Compiled data from 20-30 different sources: • Research organizations and individual
researchers• Government agencies at all levels
Data Provider Data Type Species
NatureServe Range maps - spatial All terrestrial species
AK Gap Analysis Project Distribution Models and occurrence records - spatial
All terrestrial species
USFWS, Migratory Bird Management
Avian Survey Data - spatial Willow Ptarmigan, Greater White-fronted Goose, raptors
National Park Service Range maps and occurrence records - spatial
Caribou, Lapland Longspur
University of Alaska Museum Occurrence records - spatial All terrestrial species
Toolik Lake Field Station Occurrence records - spatial Passerines
ABR Inc. Occurrence records - spatial Artic fox, caribou
North Slope Borough Wildlife Department
Occurrence records and reports – spatial
Arctic fox, caribou
BLM Range maps and occurrence records - spatial
Raptors, caribou
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
Distribution models - spatial Caribou
Data Sources for Terrestrial Fine-Filter CEs
Raptor concentration in riparian areas
Source: ADF&G, NSB, BLM, CPAI, and ABR in NPRA EIS 2013
Seasonal use of habitat – Teshekpuk caribou herd
Data Source: Platte, B. 2014. unpubl. data. Migratory Bird Management, USFWS.
Density map for Greater white-fronted Goose
Distribution model for Lapland Longspur
Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled historical datasets:• Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS 3.0 1910-1999• Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS 3.0 1910-1999• Historical Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1• Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1• Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1
Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled projected datasets:• Alaska Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Snow-day Fraction 771 m CMIP3/AR4• Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771m AR4 2001-2100• Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771m AR4 2001-2100• Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 AR4• Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771m AR4• Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771m AR4• Projected Day of Freeze 771 m AR4• Projected Day of Thaw 771 m AR4• Projected Length of Growing Season 771 m AR4
Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab/SNAP Projected permafrost variables (2006-2100) AR5, 5 top models, 5 model average• Mean Annual Ground Temperature (MAGT)• Active Layer Thickness (ALT)
Projected (2006-2100) ALFRESCO outputs• Fire return interval • Vegetation shifts
Projected Alaska Climate-Biome Shift 2 KM (2001-2099)• Cliome shifts
Variability assessments• A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Temperature• A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Precipitation
Other data• Water temperature and snow depth data (IMIQ)
Data sources for Climate as a change agent
Most species of plants and animals are highly sensitive to the length of the growing season.
Warm season length is the number of days between the estimated day when the average temperature crosses the freezing point in the spring, and the day when it crossed that point in the fall.
Climate as a change agent - Warm season length
Anaktuvu
k Pass
Kaktovik
Kivalin
a
Point Hope
Point Lay
Barrow
Nuiqsut
Atkasu
k
Prudhoe Bay
Wain
wright
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2010s2020s2060s
Values are averaged across watersheds (5th level HUCs) surrounding communities. Error bars represent maximum and minimum values (for 771m pixels) within those watersheds. Note that variability across watersheds is much greater in mountainous areas.
Warm season length by community
Erosion
Population
Employment
Energy
Income
Language
Vital Statistics
Education
State
Federal
Local/Regional
Location
US Army Corps of Engineers
UA Census Bureau
Alaska Department of Labor
Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics
Alaska Department of Education
North Slope Borough Planning Department
Alaska Housing Finance Commission
Institute of Social and Economic Research
Linear features
Block features
Bureau of Economic Analysis
National Center for Education Statistics
Data sources for human activities
Federal (NPS, USFWS, BLM): 180,000 sq. km. State (selected, patent): 53,000 sq. km.Native (selected and patent): 25,000 sq. km.
Human footprint: Communities, Camps and Cabins in the North Slope
What are the measurable and perceived impacts of development on subsistence harvest of caribou? (Fish)?
Source Dataset
Intermediate Results
Final Result
Operator
Acronyms:NOS: North Slope
Content
Analysis
Extract
Extract
Targeted
search
Review and assessment
Clip
Oil and gas infrastructures shape files and tabular data
Map identifying location of oil and gas infrastructures
Summary report identifying perceived
impacts of development on subsistence harvest
of caribou
Literature(Reports, Peer-reviewed
articles, ADF&G, NSB, MMS/BOEM)
Themes (Areas of concerns used as
key terms)
Perceived impacts of development on
subsistence harvest of caribou
Subsistence Advisory Panel (Meeting minutes, Issues and recommendations)
Literature
Work definitions of subsistence and
development
Measurable dimensions of ‘development’ that impact ‘subsistence’ harvests of
caribou
Model identifying the measurable dimensions of development that impact
subsistence harvests of caribou
Data Discovery for variables(ADF&G, AKDOL, BEA,
AEDG)
Relationships between variables and total harvest
Management Questions: TF3; AF2
Phase IInitiation
Phase II
Preliminary management questions
Establish Assessment Management Team and technical team
Assessment Work Plan
Statements of work
Establish Contracts and Agreements
Conceptual Ecoregional Model Management questions (MQs) Conservation elements (CEs) Change agents (CAs)
Recommend Potential DatasetsTask 2 – 2 Months
Recommend Methods, Models, and Tools
Task 3 – 3 Months
Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP)
Task 4 – 2 Months
Task 1 – 3 Months
Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets
Task 5 – 3 Months
Conduct Analyses Generate Findings
Task 6 – 5 Months
Prepare REA Documents
Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total
Completed
What’s next…
Identify Focal Areas
Identify Risks & Opportunities
What we request from you
Encourage dialogue in your communities
Follow our newsletters and keep yourself informed
Feel free to contact us with your ideas
Encourage others to contact us with their ideas
We will come back around completion.
Review
Questions?
Observations?
Comments?