←north star new population estimates and revised birth and fertility rates: 2001-2009 brady e....
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
←North Star
New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility
Rates: 2001-2009
Brady E. Hamilton
National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National Conference on Health
StatisticsAugust 6-8, 2012
Renaissance Washington DC999 Ninth Street NW
Washington, District of Columbia
1
![Page 2: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Acknowledgements:
Sally C. CurtinSharon KirmeyerJoyce A. Martin T.J. MathewsMichelle J.K. OstermanYashodhara PatelElizabeth C. WilsonStephanie J. Ventura
2
![Page 3: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why revise vital rates?
3
![Page 4: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
To provide more accurate birth and fertility rates incorporating
the latest census data.
4
![Page 5: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Postcensal population estimates: estimates of the population made for the years following a census, before the next census has been taken (i.e., the old, original, or unrevised estimates).
Intercensal population estimates: estimates made for years between two consecutive decennial censuses (i.e., the new or revised estimates).
NOTE: Postcensal population estimates shown in this presentation are those of the stated data (or “vintage”) year.
5
![Page 6: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Comparison of intercensal and postcensal U.S. population
estimates
6
![Page 7: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
260
270
280
290
300
310
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Year
Estimates of total population based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
0
7
![Page 8: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
All races and origins Non-Hispanic White
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sEstimates of total population by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Δ: -0.235 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
-2.167 million
8
![Page 9: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-Hispanic Black AIAN API Hispanic
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sEstimates of total population by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009 (continued)
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
+0.908 million
Δ: +0.249 million
+0.628 million
+1.085 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
9
![Page 10: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Year
Population estimates of women age 15-44 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0.0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
10
![Page 11: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
All races and origins Non-Hispanic White
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sPopulation estimates of women age 15-44 by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Δ: +0.425 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
-0.766 million
11
![Page 12: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Non-Hispanic Black AIAN API Hispanic
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
sPopulation estimates of women age 15-44 by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009 (continued)
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
+0.833 million
Δ: +0.003 million
+0.165 million
+0.445 million
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
12
![Page 13: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Age (years)
Population estimates of women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
13
![Page 14: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in t
en t
ho
usa
nd
s
Age (years)
Population estimates off AIAN women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
14
![Page 15: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in t
en t
ho
usa
nd
s
Age (years)
Population estimates of API women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
15
![Page 16: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
10-14 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illi
on
s
Age (years)
Population estimates of Hispanic women age 10-49 based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Bridged-Race Population Estimates.
16
![Page 17: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Comparison of intercensal- and postcensal-based U.S. birth
and fertility rates
Note:
Numerator (i.e., same number of births)
Denominator (i.e., different population estimates)
17
![Page 18: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
![Page 19: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
Year
Crude birth rate based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
19
![Page 20: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
11.0
15.8
13.9
16.2
20.6
11.2
15.7
11.8
15.1
20.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Non-HispanicWhite
Non-HispanicBlack
AIAN API Hispanic
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
Crude birth rate by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
20
![Page 21: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
55
60
65
70
75
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
wo
men
ag
ed 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
21
![Page 22: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
58.4
68.962.8
68.7
93.3
59.6
68.9
51.7
61.3
86.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Non-HispanicWhite
Non-HispanicBlack
AIAN API Hispanic
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
wo
men
ag
e 15
-44
in s
pec
ifie
d g
rou
pGeneral fertility rate by race and Hispanic origin based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
22
![Page 23: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
50
55
60
65
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ra
te p
er
1,0
00
wo
me
n a
ge
d 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate for non-Hispanic white women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
23
![Page 24: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
65
75
85
95
105
115
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ra
te p
er
1,0
00
wo
me
n a
ge
d 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate for Hispanic women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
24
![Page 25: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
45
50
55
60
65
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ra
te p
er
1,0
00
wo
me
n a
ge
d 1
5-4
4
Year
General fertility rate for AIAN women based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2000-2009
Postcensal (2000 based) Intercensal (2010 based)
0
Sources: Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
25
![Page 26: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
MT
WY
ID
WA
OR
NV
UT
CA
AZ
ND
SD
NE
CO
NM
TX
OK
KS
AR
LA
MO
IA
MN
WI
IL IN
KY
TN
MS AL GA
FL
SC
NC
VAWV
OH
MI
NY
PA
MDDE
NJ
CT RI
MA
ME
VTNH
AK
HI
Fertility rate for women age 15-44 by state based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
No difference
Lower
Higher
Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
26
![Page 27: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
MT
WY
ID
WA
OR
NV
UT
CA
AZ
ND
SD
NE
CO
NM
TX
OK
KS
AR
LA
MO
IA
MN
WI
IL IN
KY
TN
MS AL GA
FL
SC
NC
VAWV
OH
MI
NY
PA
MDDE
NJ
CT RI
MA
ME
VTNH
AK
HI
Birth rate for women age 15-19 by state based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses: United States, 2009
No difference
Lower
Higher
Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et.al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011.
27
![Page 28: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Summary:
Differences between birth and fertility rates based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses vary by age, race, Hispanic origin, and area population group.
The disparity in revised (2010-based) birth and fertility rates among population groups is generally smaller than the unrevised (2000-based) rates.
28
![Page 29: ←North Star New Population Estimates and Revised Birth and Fertility Rates: 2001-2009 Brady E. Hamilton National Center for Health Statistics 2012 National](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649f515503460f94c74378/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Website address:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm
29