north west regional leaders board agenda · over recent months leaders have been developing a...

Date Friday, 10 February 2017Time 10.30 amVenue Room 10, Town Hall, St Helens

Car Parking is available on the nearby Pay and Display Car Park on Birchley Street.

North West Regional Leaders Board

AGENDA1. Apologies

2. Minutes of the Meeting held on 14 October 2016 3

3. Matters Arising

4. Unaccompanied Asylum Seeker Children (UASC) Update Presentation

5. Regional Manufacturing Forum Update 9

6. NWBLT - Productivity in the North West 13

7. North West Brexit Monitor, January 2017 25

8. NW Research Collaboration 43

9. Any Other Business

Dates of Future Meetings:

Thursday 13 April 2017Friday 14 July 2017 (AGM)

This page is intentionally left blank

NORTH WEST REGIONAL LEADERS BOARD

Minutes of the meeting held onFriday 14 October 2016

Persons present (Voting Members)

LancashireCouncillor Mohammed Khan (Blackburn), Councillor Jennifer Mein (Lancashire)

Liverpool City Region Councillor Andy Moorhead (Knowsley)

CheshireCouncillor Paul Findlow (for Cllr Rachel Bailey, Cheshire East), Councillor Terry O’Neill (Chairman) (Warrington), Councillor Louise Gittins (Cheshire West and Chester),

CumbriaCouncillor Alan Smith (Allerdale)

ESE’sRichard Caulfield (NWAC), Michael Damms (NW Chambers of Commerce), Warren Escadale (VSNW), Christine Gaskell (LEP NW), Professor Mark Smith (Lancaster University)

Also in attendance (non-voting)Deborah McLaughlin (HCA), Katrina Hann (New Economy), Peter Hughes (St Helens MBC), Joanne Griffiths MBE (St Helens MBC) and Dominic Rowan (St Helens MBC).

Prior to the meeting the Chairman welcomed Christine Gaskell to her first meeting and also expressed the Board’s best wishes to Councillor Grunewald who had recently been taken ill whilst on holiday.

12 APOLOGIES

The Board were informed of apologies received from Councillor Sean Anstee (Trafford MBC), Councillor Alyson Barnes (Rossendale BC), Councillor Kevin Beaty (Eden District Council), Sir Howard Bernstein (Manchester CC), Councillor Rachael Bailey (Cheshire East Council), Lynn Collins (TUC), Councillor Barrie Grunewald (St Helens MBC), Councillor Sir Richard Leese (Manchester CC),Liz McQue (NW Employers), Simon Noakes (New Economy Manchester), Mike Palin (St Helens MBC), Kirsty Pearce (BIS NW), Geoffrey Piper (NW Business Leadership Team), and Mike Starkie (Copeland BC).

13 MINUTES OF THE MEETING HELD ON 22 JULY 2016

The Minutes of the North West Regional Leaders Board held on 22 July 2016 were agreed as a correct record.

14 MATTERS ARISING

Councillor Smith informed the Board that he had attended the United Utilities ‘Your Voice’ panel and would send a briefing note to Members.

3

2


15 OXYGEN FINANCE PRESENTATION

Simon Whittle, Director of Oxygen Finance, gave a presentation which informed the Board that Oxygen Finance were a Technology and Professional Services business that enabled large buying organisations to unlock value within their supply chains, through paying suppliers ahead of contracted terms.

Oxygen Finance were working with a number of North West Councils already and Leaders were asked to contact Simon if they were interested in finding out more.

* Resolved that the presentation be noted, and contact details for Oxygen be circulated to board members.

16 NORTH WEST RESEARCH COLLABORATION UPDATE

Katrina Hann, New Economy updated the Board on progress in relation to priority research areas detailed in the report.

Key areas of focus over the last three months were:

• Capacity to provide the NW LEPs and partners with research and intelligence to take forward the Northern Powerhouse (NPH) following the conclusion of the NPH Independent Economic Review (IER);

• Capacity to ensure NW LEPs and partners are briefed on the economic and social trends and policy developments arising from the decision to leave the EU on a monthly basis with the development of the NW Brexit Monitor;

• Continuation of the work on the skills gaps which exist between the north and the rest of the UK with a focus on skills gaps which exist within the 50+ age group;

• Supporting the Regional Manufacturing Network (as agreed at the last meeting) in the development of a research scope for the Advanced Manufacturing sector to building on its position as a key capability for the Northern Powerhouse, but one which is at risk of losing its competitive edge;

• Commencing the design of Tax and Spend workshops for each LEP to apply the findings from the Tax and Spend analysis and provide the evidence base for further devolution conversations.

* Resolved that:

(1) Progress made in relation to the 2016/17 research programme be noted.

(2) An update on the collaboration between New Economy and the Regional Manufacturing Forum be brought to the next meeting of the Board.

17 HOMES AND COMMUNITIES AGENCY PRESENTAITON

Deborah McLaughlin delivered a presentation which updated the Board on the work of the HCA.

The presentation outlined the following:

4

2


Challenges for housing delivery; What Government is saying; Broadening investment and approaches; How HCA is responding ; Working locally ; and Looking ahead

The Chair informed the Board that Deborah McLaughlin was leaving the HCA, and thanked her for her valuable input to the Board on behalf of the HCA, and wished her well in her future career.

* Resolved that the presentation be noted.

18 LANCASHIRE COMBINED AUTHORITY UPDATE

A report was submitted which updated the Board on progress of the Lancashire Combined Authority Process.Lancashire Leaders had been working to develop Combined Authority proposals. A public consultation was held earlier this year which received positive support to form a Combined Authority. 14 of the 15 local authorities agreed to form a Combined Authority and a request was submitted to the government in June 2016. In the interim period a shadow Combined Authority has been established with the first meeting being held on July 2016. The shadow Combined Authority is now developing a Lancashire Plan which will set out a vision for Lancashire based on the five core themes. Over recent months Leaders have been developing a proposal for devolution to the Lancashire Combined Authority, which could enable greater control, power and influence over a range of programmes and funding delivered in Lancashire. The new Secretary of State for DCLG has written to confirm they are considering Lancashire’s proposals and will be in touch shortly to discuss the way forward. It is expected the Combined Authority to be formally established from April 2017. Leaders have already agreed a Scheme of Governance which sets out voting arrangements and membership and the shadow Combined Authority are operating within these same principles.

* Resolved that:

(1) Lancashire’s progress in moving towards a Combined Authority be noted; and

(2) the Board recognised the integral part Lancashire plays in the Northern Powerhouse.

19 EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM – ‘BREXIT’ UPDATE

A report was submitted and presented by Katrina Hann (New Economy) which provided the latest edition of the monthly North West Brexit Monitor which gave a real-time snap shot of the economic and policy impact of Brexit.

New Economy is monitoring the economic and social trends and policy developments arising from the decision to leave the EU on a monthly basis.

5

2


The impact of Brexit is being tracked across the following key themes:

• Macro-economy trends and developments• Key Sectors (including business investment)• Rules, regulations and terms of trade & access to European Funding• Property investment, housing and planning• Economic Inclusion

The key message arising from this month’s Brexit Monitor is one of cautious optimism in business and consumer sentiment. For businesses, rising optimism is seen across the service and manufacturing sectors, albeit that the latest overall rise in the production of goods has been led by a rise in oil and gas production masking a fall in manufacturing output.

* Resolved that:

(1) the contents of the September North West Brexit Monitor be noted and the cautious optimism in business and consumer sentiment, acknowledging that the full impact of the decision to leave the EU is yet to be felt and that no detailed decisions have been made in relation to terms of trade and rules and regulations;

(2) the headline announcements on Brexit covered by the Prime Minister in her main speech at the Conservative Party Conference and that this adds impetus to the requirement for Government to undertake a detailed analysis of the sectoral and spatial impacts of options for forging new trading relationships as part of the withdrawal strategy from the EU based. There is an opportunity for regional partners to call for this analysis to be undertaken through their submissions to the Autumn Statement; and

(3) Agree that a letter should be sent to the relevant Government Minister(s) stressing the importance of committing to transport investment and skills in the North.

(4) Members of the Board to send to New Economy any evidence that they wish to be considered for inclusion in the Brexit Monitor.

The Chair informed the Board that the following item was Confidential.

20 SCIENCE AND INNOVATION AUDIT

Professor Mark Smith from Lancaster University presented a report on the Science and Innovation Audit.

In November 2015, the then Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) announced their intention to invite organisations throughout the UK with an interest in research and innovation to form into consortia and express interest in undertaking a Science and Innovation Audit (SIA). The SIAs will build evidence of

6

2


potential global competitive advantage and begin to identify routes to realise that potential.

In the March Budget statement it was announced that an initial 5 SIAs were awarded from 27 applications received nationally, these being:

• Lancashire & Sheffield City Region;• Greater Manchester & East Cheshire;• Edinburgh & the Lothians;• South Wales & South West England; and• The Midlands

Attached to the report was an executive summary to the Lancashire and Sheffield City Region Science and Innovation Audit. BIES were yet to publish the full report and the executive summary was therefore still to confidential and should not be shared.

* Resolved that the report be noted.

21 DATES OF FUTURE MEETINGS

Friday 10 February 2017Thursday 13 April 2017Friday 14 July 2017

All at 10.30am, St Helens Town Hall

-oOo-

7

2

Regional Manufacturing Forum

(Update)

Michael Damms Regional Manufacturing (Update)

9

5

• A body responsible for driving a plan to deliver these Regional

and Local strategies for Advanced Manufacturing to achieve;

– Regionally led service for international trade to boost export

opportunities and inward investment.

– Holding national programmes to account at a regional level

to ensure value is derived in the region.

– Supply chain competitiveness at global levels; through a new

cross-sector supply chain improvement programme.


10

5

– Support for leadership, strategic business planning and risk

management to address issues around confidence to invest.

– Commitment to build long-term relationships and growth

opportunities between Primes and the Supply Chain.

– Coordination of investment in apprentice training to meet future

demand and work in association with skills provision.

• Access to high value manufacturing catapult centres and grow supply

chain investment in new technologies.


11

5

- Data on the current position of Manufacturing in the NW.

- A policy scan of those relevant to manufacturing (being updated for

the Industrial Strategy)

- A review of the 5 SEPs in order to understand the aspirations,

achievements, duplications and shared opportunities in Advanced

Manufacturing.


12

5

Productivity

Unlocking Our Potential

Solving the productivity puzzle in North West England and

nationally

Geoffrey Piper

Chief Executive

North West Business Leadership Team

13

6

Our Goal

To drive significant improvements in productivity levels across all our

principal employment sectors, rebalancing the North West economy

and thus raising the overall competitiveness and prosperity of the UK.

14

6

Challenge and opportunity

• The NW contributes 9% of the UK’s total exports - a cornerstone of

Britain’s industrial production.

• 2012, GVA per job in the region was £39,210 compared with £45,100

for UK

• In the UK, 75% of the productivity gap is explained by weaknesses in

management practice.

Change will only be delivered if business leaders rise to the challenge

15

6

Focussing on solutions

Greater priority must be given to relevant education and in-work

training. Improved productivity should also be driven by increased

investment in R & D and innovation, competition and a culture that

nurtures, celebrates, and rewards enterprise.

Our three key areas of action are as follows:

16

6

1. Promote leadership and ambition, sharing

best practice and recognising excellence

17

6

1. Promote leadership and ambition, sharing best

practice and recognising excellence

• Participate in best practice transfer between sectors including Lean and Six Sigma.

• Encourage the sharing of best practice across the North West manufacturing sector.

• Encourage best practice in employment policy, including employee engagement and diversity and adoption of the Living Wage.

• Award a North West prize for productivity performance.

18

6

2. Support increased innovation and

investment in R & D

19

6

2. Support increased innovation and

investment in R & D

• Incentivise investment in innovation and technology.

• Urge Government to increase investment in R & D annually to 2.5%.

20

6

3. Support and encourage local and national

government to prioritise productivity

21

6

3. Support and encourage local and national

government to prioritise productivity

• Promote a quarterly Productivity Index, by LEP region and sector.

• Provide a sound evidence base from business to support policy development and investment decisions across the North West.

22

6

Next steps:

• Task Group established drawn from the NWBLT membership

• Richard Carter, Chief Executive of BASF, UK and Ireland leading our work.

• Juergen Maier, Chairman of the NWBLT, linking this activity to the work of the National Productivity Council

Please contact us if you would like to be involved.

23

6


Date: 10 February 2017

Subject: North West Brexit Monitor, January 2017NW Research Collaboration

Report of: Katrina Hann, New Economy

PURPOSE OF REPORT

This report provides the latest edition of the monthly North West Brexit Monitor which provides provide a real-time snap shot of the economic and policy impact of Brexit.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

Regional Leaders are asked to:

Note the contents of the January North West Brexit Monitor and the continued optimism in business sentiment, set alongside cautious consumer sentiment with inflation expectations likely to affect both future spending and overall living standards.

Note the announcements on Brexit covered by the Prime Minister in her speech on 17th January outlining a ‘hard Brexit’ position, with the UK not seeking a deal that would keep the UK “half in, half out” of the EU.

Influencing Brexit negotiations – to note the 14 asks that GM have put forward to Government and consider whether other NW areas wish to put forward an individual LEP response or develop a collective response to Government on this issue.

CONTACT OFFICERS:

Katrina Hann, Deputy Director of Research, New Economy

[email protected]

25

7

mailto:[email protected]

1. BACKGROUND

1.1 New Economy is monitoring the economic and social trends and policy developments arising from the decision to leave the EU on a monthly basis.

1.2 The latest iteration of the North West Brexit Monitor is attached. The impact of Brexit is being tracked across the key themes below:

Macro-economy trends and developments Key sectors (including business investment) Rules, regulations and terms of trade & access to European Funding Property investment, housing and planning Economic inclusion

2. KEY MESSAGES

2.1 Leading economic indicators for January highlight strong growth across UK. Purchasing Managers across the UK have reported rises in new business in the last quarter of 2016. UK manufacturing started 2017 on a strong footing, with exports growing at the fastest pace for the last two-and-a-half years. The main risk to the economy is now thought to be inflation from rising costs of materials, alongside rising fuel, IT, and wage costs.

2.2 The majority of economists surveyed by the FT (120 in 2015 and again at the end of 2016) remain pessimistic about Brexit’s likely effect on Britain’s longer-term economic prospects. This is despite Economists coming under pressure for their short term pessimism; incorrectly predicting the ability of the UK economy to remain resilient after the referendum result. The Bank of England’s Chief Economist blamed the failure of economic models to cope with ‘irrational behaviour’ in the modern era.

2.3 On 17th January the Prime Minister made a major speech setting out her objectives for the negotiation with the EU. The speech outlined a ‘hard Brexit’ position, with the UK not seeking a deal that would keep the UK “half in, half out” of the EU. The key message was that the UK will leave the single market, but will push for a new "comprehensive free trade agreement" that will give "the greatest possible access" to the single market. The Supreme Court ruling (24 January) has ruled that the Government cannot trigger Article 50 without an act of Parliament. MPs backed the European Union Bill in the 01 February vote, and this is accompanied by the release of the Government's White Paper.(3)

2.4 Since the referendum result, the claimant count unemployment has fallen in the North West by 3.5% from 105,000 to 102,000. The claimant rate in December 2016 was 2.3% of the working age population, compared with 1.8% in the UK. Within the region the rate varies from 2.8% in Liverpool CR, 2.5% in Greater Manchester, 2.1% in Lancashire, 1.5% in Cumbria, and 1.3% in Cheshire and Warrington. The Brexit Monitor also shows that UK households are signalling the strongest inflation expectations since 2014, and that personal debt grew at its highest level since December 2008. These factors are likely to affect both future spending and overall living standards.

26

7

3. INFLUENCING BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS

3.1 In the lead up to the UK enacting of Article 50 (which the Government has said will be by the end of March 2017), Theresa May has committed to a series of parliamentary debates on the “high level principles” around Brexit.

3.2 GM have developed a list of 14 specific asks to government to ensure that GM’s specific issues and priorities are not lost in the national debate. Appendix 1 includes details of the asks that GM has developed. These cut across the full GM growth and reform agenda, recognising that the Government’s strategy for leaving the EU needs to be more than just a one-dimensional response to the complexities presented by the need to negotiate a new trading agreement. It needs to be multi-dimensional, reflecting the different impacts leaving the EU will have on different parts of the UK and the new opportunities that can be created by fully capitalising on the assets we have in our people, businesses and places. The asks also reflect the need to tackle social and economic exclusion, problems which have remained intractable for decades.

3.3 The GM asks are specific to the city region, but clearly have resonance for any region in the UK and will support improved economic and social outcomes for the UK as a whole. GM is keen to share these asks with NW leaders and offer guidance should they wish to develop asks for their individual areas or consider a collective NW response.

4. RECOMMENDATIONS

4.1 Recommendations appear at the front of this report.

27

7

APPENDIX 1: GREATER MANCHESTER AND BREXIT

The decision to leave the European Union creates new opportunities and challengesfor Greater Manchester. The Prime Minister has now outlined her objectives for the negotiation ahead, but the Government’s strategy for leaving the EU needs to be more than just a one-dimensional response to the complexities presented by the need to negotiate a new trading agreement. It needs to be multi-dimensional, reflecting the different impacts leaving the EU will have on different parts of the UK and the new opportunities that can be created by fully capitalising on the assets we have in our people, businesses and places.

For Greater Manchester, and the UK as a whole, the focus needs to be on raising growth and productivity, whilst improving social and economic inclusion. These are problems which have remained intractable for decades, but now is the time to tackle them. A central reason why the UK’s economy punches below its weight, and does not currently work for all people and places, is because the national approach to growth has not been place-focused. Brexit provides an opportunity to create a more inclusive and prosperous UK, but only if the Government’s strategy for leaving the EU reflects the different opportunities and needs in different parts of the country.

Based on consultation with local business and civic leaders, Greater Manchester hasidentified 14 targeted asks to inform the UK’s strategy for leaving the EU, mitigating the challenges and seizing the opportunities Brexit presents, and delivering an economy which works for localities, city regions, the North and the UK as a whole.

Industry and Trade: we must continue to promote growth in trade

1. Support the continued renaissance of manufacturing in Greater Manchester by ensuring there are no new tariffs or regulatory barriers to trade in goods or manufacturing-related services.

2. Support growth in Greater Manchester’s £15.5bn financial and professional services industry by ensuring that UK regulated firms can continue to sell to EU markets through a long-term regulatory standards equivalence agreement.

3. Ensure that Greater Manchester’s digital sector continues to thrive, by: Ensuring access equivalent to membership to the digital single market and

agreeing equivalence on data protection legislation Ensuring that UK’s public sector can invest in broadband infrastructure by

repealing EU frameworks which prohibit investment in urban broadband even where there are market failures.

4. Provide a regulatory framework that facilitates growth in Greater Manchester’s leading edge health innovation sector, by: Aligning UK and EU patent protection and enforcement regimes as closely as

possible, while replacing inhibitory legislation and regulatory procedures.

28

7

Aligning UK medical approvals schemes with those of the EU so that pharmaceutical innovation and associated investment are not inhibited by having to duplicate approvals.

5. Grow Greater Manchester’s science and innovation capacity and ensure that the UK maintains its position as an attractive base for the world’s best scientists, through:• Shifting the balance of science and innovation spending, including the

National Productivity Investment Fund, to invest in globally distinctive assets and capabilities, including those identified in the GM and East Cheshire Science and Innovation Audit

• Maintaining access to collaborative funding streams, particularly Horizon 2020 and its successors, and ensuring that UK researchers are not disadvantaged in, or excluded from, pan-European scientific collaboration.

• Easing visa restrictions for leading researchers from all parts of the world.• Continuing to grow higher education as a key export market (worth £6bn to

the UK economy) by adopting an open approach to short-term student immigration.

6. Facilitate the continued expansion of Manchester Airport – the UK’s 3rd largest – by ensuring access to the single aviation market, to ensure no loss in the UK’s connectivity to the rest of the world.

7. Trade and investment support activity should be expanded and commissioned jointly with localities to reflect the different assets and opportunities in different parts of the country. For the North this activity should reflect its assets and prime capabilities in Advanced Manufacturing, Digital, Health Innovation and Energy.

8. To show the world that the UK is still open for business, GM should be appraised as an option to host Expo 2025. Similar economic benefits would be delivered for less than 20% of the costs of the London 2012 Olympics.

Infrastructure and Place: we must continue to invest in subnational growth and regeneration

9. Develop a place-based Industrial Strategy that drives growth and living standards through the Brexit transition by taking a market-facing, asset-based approach to increase the productivity of sectors, underpinned by an integrated approach that tackles the underlying barriers to investment and enterprise. This needs to be developed and implemented through a partnership with cities where the leadership and delivery capacity exists to create places which are attractive for people to live, work and invest.

29

7

10.Maintain investment in regional development and regeneration by creating a new fund to replace the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Subject to appropriate monitoring and evaluation, this should be fully devolved to functional economic areas, multi-year and multi-parliament to provide assurance and stability, and targeted at the most deprived areas.

11.Ensure that the UK has access to its €39 billion share of European Investment Bank (EIB) capital. If the UK does not continue to participate in the EIB, the EIB ‘dividend’ should be devolved and distributed to localities.

People and Skills: we must raise the skills of the workforce

12.Ensuring that UK residents have the skills to meet employers’ needs in all sectors by:• Co-commissioning the entire education, skills and employment system with

Greater Manchester to get more out of existing spending. This should include the full devolution of the health education budget to ensure we have the workforce to support an integrated and sustainable health and social care system.

• Improving standards in education by establishing a GM Education and Employability Board to lead the implementation of stronger models of early years provision, a coordinated approach to spatial planning of school provision, and a commissioned approach to all-school improvement.

• Raising aspirations and giving young people and adults the tools to make informed decisions about their own futures by aligning all current and future resources around careers education, information, advice and guidance in GM.

• Committing to providing equivalent funding to the European Social Fund (ESF), fully devolved to Greater Manchester. The scale of the challenge means that Government should consider doubling GM’s ESF equivalent allocation to £266m up to 2020.

13.Create a fit for purpose immigration system to ensure that Greater Manchester firms can continue to get the skills their businesses need, by:• Putting in place transition arrangement for high and low skilled migrant

workers so that current EU nationals living in the UK can remain and future EU migration is managed sustainably. Continued access to both high and low skilled migrant labour is particularly urgent for the sustainability of the health and social care system.

• Taking an open approach, with minimum levels of bureaucracy, to high-skilled immigration for workers from anywhere in the world.

Leaving the EU: understanding the needs of cities and the North

30

7

14.Ensure that the unique opportunities and challenges facing the UK’s cities and the North of England from Brexit are adequately reflected by:• Before Article 50 is triggered, setting out a transparent process for how the

voice of the North will be represented in the EU negotiations• Within 6 months of Article 50 being triggered, producing, in partnership with

Core Cities, London and others, a clear, detailed and objective economic analysis of the options for forging new trading relationships. This should assess the impacts on business, productivity, and sectors and provide a spatial analysis of where the impacts will be greatest.

31

7

North West Brexit Monitor

Key economic and policy developments

January 2017

33

7

Executive Summary

Headlines

• The latest economic indicators highlight strong growth across UK. Purchasing Managers across the UK have reported rises in

new business in the last quarter of 2016. UK manufacturing started 2017 on a strong footing, with exports growing at the

fastest pace for the last two-and-a-half years. The main risk to the economy is now thought to be inflation from rising costs of

materials, alongside rising fuel, IT, and wage costs.

• The majority of economists surveyed by the FT (120 in 2015 and again at the end of 2016) remain pessimistic about

Brexit’s likely effect on Britain’s longer-term economic prospects.(1) This is despite Economists coming under pressure for

their short term pessimism; incorrectly predicting the ability of the UK economy to remain resilient after the referendum result. The

Bank of England’s Chief Economist blamed the failure of economic models to cope with ‘irrational behaviour’ in the modern era.(2)

• On 17th January the Prime Minister made a major speech setting out her objectives for the negotiation with the EU. The

speech outlined a ‘hard Brexit’ position, with the UK not seeking a deal that would keep the UK “half in, half out” of the EU. The

key message was that the UK will leave the single market, but will push for a new "comprehensive free trade agreement" that will

give "the greatest possible access" to the single market. The Supreme Court ruling (24 January) has ruled that the Government

cannot trigger Article 50 without an act of Parliament. Latest: MPs backed the European Union Bill in the 01 February vote, and

this is accompanied by the release of the Government's White Paper.(3)

Macro economy

• Indicators point to a strong finish to 2016, which some economic commentators refer to as “The Sterling effect” - as PMI data

shows Britain’s manufacturing hit its best level since the summer of 2014, helped by rising export orders stimulated by a 18%

depreciation in the pound against the dollar. Most economists still believe growth will slow in the longer-term to 1.5% in 2017.

• The UK economy grew 0.6% from October to December, maintaining the rate of growth of the previous quarter. The figures,

from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that a feared slowdown in the UK economy as a result of Brexit has not shown

up in official data. In 2016 as a whole, the economy grew by 2.0%, down from 2.2% in 2015. Growth in the July-to-September

period was 0.6%, helped by "robust consumer demand“ and greater output in the financial sector.

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects inflation to rise from 1.3% in 2016 to 2.7% in 2017 and

2018, higher than in its last set of forecasts three months ago, and higher than the 2.0% inflation target.

• Exports and the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services. The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated

to have been £4.2 billion in November 2016, a widening of £2.6 billion from October 2016, which reflects a £3.3 billion increase in

imports, partially offset by a £0.7 billion increase in exports – mostly electrical machinery and transport equipment.

34

7

Executive summary

Key sectors and business investment

• ONS Index of Services (IoS) showed output increased by 0.3% between September 2016 and October 2016 (latest). Growth

in the latter part of 2016 was consumer led, with retail sales contributing 0.14 percentage points to the overall increase.

• The latest Markit Purchasing Managers (PMI) survey data shows that the UK manufacturing sector has started 2017 on a

strong footing driven by rising exports, and grew at the fastest pace in the last two-and-a-half years in December 2016.

Terms of trade, regulation & access to European funding

• The PM gave a major speech outlining her approach to the negotiations for exiting the EU, committing to giving MPs a

vote on the Brexit deal struck by the government following the negotiations with the EU. The PM also said her government would

agree a phased implementation following agreement of the deal to avoid any “cliff edges”. (14)

• On EU transnational funding, On 4 January Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom announced that the remaining European

funding from the Rural Development Programme for England (RDPE) Growth Programme would be launched on a national call..

All LEPs in the NW have been given a notional allocation from the RDPE Programme.

Property investment, housing and planning

• The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement speech included a commitment to investment in infrastructure and innovation, and

1.0% to 1.2% of GDP will be invested in the recommendations of the National Infrastructure Commission (0.8% at present).

• Official Housing Index data shows that average UK house prices rose by 0.8% in December, taking the annual increase to 4.5%,

However, prices have curtailed in the last few months in both London and the North West.

• The investment market has been resilient since the Referendum. For example, take-up in central Manchester reached

681,901 sq ft Q1-Q3 of 2016. Q3-2016 was the strongest in 2016, totalling 266,644 sq ft, 8% higher than the five-year average.

Economic inclusion

• Household Finance Index (HFI) results for November 2016 show households signalling the strongest inflation expectations since

2014. Bank of England data show that personal debt grew 10.8% year-to-November 2016, the highest since December 2008.

• Since the referendum result on 24th June 2016, the claimant count unemployment has fallen in the North West by 3.5%

from 105,000 to 102,000. The claimant rate in December 2016 was 2.3% of the working age population, compared with 1.8% in

the UK. Within the region the rate varies from 2.8% in Liverpool CR, 2.5% in Greater Manchester, 2.1% in Lancashire, 1.5% in

Cumbria, and 1.3% in Cheshire and Warrington.

35

7

Macro-economic trends and developments

Macro-economy

• The UK economy grew 0.6% from October to December, maintaining the rate of growth of the previous quarter. The

figures, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that a feared slowdown in the UK economy as a result of Brexit

has not shown up in official data. In 2016 as whole, the economy grew by 2.0%, down from 2.2% in 2015. Growth in the July-

to-September period was 0.6%, helped by "robust consumer demand“ and greater output in the financial sector. (4)

• Bank of England Agents' Summary of Business Conditions, 2016 Q4, suggests UK growth had edged up from the same

time last year, but businesses remain cautious about prospects for 2017. Falls in sterling have led to higher goods export

volumes. Consumer demand had been boosted by rising tourist spending. Firms’ intentions pointed to only small increases

in investment in 2017. Input cost inflation had picked up sharply in 2016, but wage growth had remained stable. (5)

• The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £4.2 billion in November 2016, a widening

of £2.6 billion from October 2016, which reflects a £3.3 billion increase in imports, partially offset by a £0.7 billion increase in

exports. The widening of the deficit in November 2016 is attributed to trade in goods in which there were increased imports

from both EU and non-EU countries, partially offset by an increase in exports to EU countries, mostly finished manufactures

of electrical machinery and transport equipment. (6)

• Lloyds Bank Regional Business Activity (Output) Index shows business activity growth hits 18-month high at the end of

2016. England and Wales business activity rises at fastest rate for 18 months. Rising order books point to promising start to

2017, reflected in employment growth. Inflation of prices charged for goods and services fastest since May 2011. Most

regions record strong and accelerated growth, led by the East of England, followed closely by the South West and West

Midlands (both 58.7 – a figure over 50 shows positive growth). These were then followed by Yorkshire (57.7), then South

East, the North West, and North East (56.8). The East Midlands (56.0) was the slowest despite also recording growth. (7)

Consumer sentiment

• Consumer Trends. Spending on goods and services by UK households when compared with the same quarter a year ago

has been showing positive growth each quarter since Quarter 4 2011. It was 2.6% higher in Q3-2016 than in Q3-2015. (8)

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.2% in the year to November 2016, compared with a 0.9% rise in the year to

October. The rate in November was the highest since October 2014, when it was 1.3%. Rises in the prices of clothing, fuels

and recreational goods, most notably computers, were the main contributors to the increase. (9)

36

7

Key sectors & business investment

Key sectors and business investment

• Industrial Strategy. The Prime Minister has unveiled plans for a new, more interventionist, industrial strategy, designed to

boost the post-Brexit UK economy. The plan was published in a green paper as she held her first regional cabinet meeting in

the North West of England. Broadband, transport and energy are highlighted in a bid to "align central government

infrastructure investment with local growth priorities". The 10-point plan involves: Investing in science, research and

innovation; Developing skills; Upgrading infrastructure; Supporting business to start and grow; Improving government

procurement; Encouraging trade and inward investment; Delivering affordable energy and clean growth; Cultivating world-

leading sectors; Driving growth across the whole country; Creating the right institutions to bring together sectors and places. (10)

Manufacturing

• Manufacturing PMI stands at a 30 month high (56.1) with the latest

Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Index once again outlining upturns in output,

new orders and employment. (11)

• New export business increased for the seventh successive month in

December, with companies reporting increased levels of new work from

the USA, Europe, China, Middle East, India and other Asian markets. (11)

• Construction output also increased, lifted by increased new orders and a

general rebound in business conditions. However, input prices also continue

to rise sharply and are at their highest level since April 2011. (12)

Services

• Markit/CIPS Services PMI data for December highlights the continuing

growth of the UK’s dominant sector, as total business activity and new

business expansion accelerated at the fastest pace since July 2015,

with the Index rising to 56.2. (13)

• Employment growth in the service sector is stable, and remains unchanged

from November's seven month high, however employment growth over

2016 as a whole was weaker in comparison to 2013, 2014 and 2015. (13)

37

7

Trade, regulation and access to European funding

Trade, rules and regulatory developments

• The Prime Minister’s speech (17 January) set out her objectives for the Brexit negotiations with the EU, including

maintaining the common travel area between the UK and Irish Republic, and "control" of migration between the UK and the EU.

Negotiations are set to begin after notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is served by the end of March. The most keenly

awaited part of the speech dealt with the UK's post-Brexit trading relationship with the rest of Europe.

• Any agreement with the EU must "allow for the freest possible trade in goods and services", but the PM stated that what she

was proposing could not mean retaining any membership of the single market. She also said she did not want the country to

be "bound" by the shared external tariffs. Instead, the UK would be "striking our own comprehensive trade agreements with

other countries". The PM also said her Government would agree a phased implementation largely to help avoid a “cliff-edge”

for businesses after a UK exit, and suggested that ‘The Plan’ should be published at the end of February 2017. (14)

• Supreme Court ruling (24 January) by a majority of eight to three, the Supreme Court has ruled that the Government cannot

trigger Article 50 without an act of Parliament authorising it to do so. The judgement means Theresa May cannot begin talks

with the EU until MPs and peers give their backing - although this is expected to happen in time for the Government's 31 March

deadline. The court ruled the Scottish Parliament and Welsh and Northern Ireland assemblies did not need a say. (15)

• Latest: The PM is on course to start the two-year Brexit process next month after MPs voted by 498 to 114, a government

majority of 384, for the bill that gives her the power to invoke the EU treaty’s Article 50 exit clause. A white paper was launched

on the 2nd February setting out setting out a broad strategy for a new partnership between the UK and the EU.

European Funding

• On 4 January Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom announced that the remaining European funding from the Rural

Development Programme for England Growth Programme would be launched on a national call. The call was launched on 25

January covering Food Processing, Tourism Infrastructure and Business Development. All LEPs in the NW have been given a

notional allocation from the RDPE Programme. The Call will be open until 31 January 2018 or until funding is allocated. (16)

• On 7 December Greater Manchester and Liverpool received a 3 Star Award each as European Reference Sites for Active and

Healthy Ageing. The award is an international recognition to regions and cities that are seen as “highly inspirational

ecosystems, delivering creative and workable solutions to improve the lives and health of older people”. Liverpool and Greater

Manchester will hold the Reference Site status for 3 years.

• On EU transnational funding, the Interreg Europe Programme announced the successful applicants from their 2016 call. A total

of 66 projects were approved with 8 of them led by UK organisations, including one from Oldham on community energy. (17)

38

7

Property and investment, housing, and planning

• The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement speech included a commitment to investment in infrastructure and innovation, and that between

1.0%-1.2% of GDP will be invested in the recommendations of the National Infrastructure Commission (0.8% at present). The £23

billion National Productivity Investment Fund (NPIF) programme announced will be targeted at four areas to improve productivity:

Housing, Transport, Digital Communications and Research and Development. The £2.3bn new Housing Infrastructure Fund is part of

the NPIF, and is allocated to “provide infrastructure targeted at unlocking new private house building in the areas where housing need is

greatest.” Further infrastructure spend included £1.1bn to upgrade local roads/public transport; and £1bn for digital infrastructure. (18)

Average House Prices Sales (Index August 2015=100) Property and Investment

• Official Housing Index data from the Land Registry suggests the

vote to leave the EU has had little impact on house prices, with

moderate growth in average sales this period. (19)

• Average UK house prices rose by 0.8% in December, taking the

annual increase to 4.5%, according to data from Nationwide.

However, as illustrated in the chart opposite, prices have

curtailed in the last few months in London and the North West.

• According to Lambert Smith Hampton, Alongside Central London

offices, the rebound in Q4 also reflected strong activity in the

UK’s regional office markets – including the North West. Across

2016 as a whole, activity in the regions was healthy with annual

volume up 8% on a 5 year average – boosted in particular by

growth in Scotland and the West Midlands, (20)

• Office take-up in Manchester city centre reached 681,901 sq ft in

the first three quarters of 2016. Q3-2016 was the strongest in

2016, totalling 266,644 sq ft, 8% higher than the 5-year average.

Manchester also recorded the highest office rents outside London

in 2016, at £35 per square foot. (21)

39

7

Economic Inclusion

• The Household Finance Index (HFI) compiled by Markit Economics provides the earliest indication of changes in UK household

finances each month. Results for November 2016 show households signalling the strongest inflation expectations since 2014.

Household incomes also remain close to stagnation. (22)

• Personal Debt. Data from the Bank of England show personal debt grew 10.8% in the year to November 2016 to £192 bn in the UK, the

highest level since December 2008. Bank of England statistics show that personal debt, including credit cards and bank loans (not

mortgages or student loans) has been growing at a yearly rate of 10% in the past 6 months.

• Inflation. Whilst it is difficult to predict how things like changes in the value of the pound will feed through to the overall price level, and

how inflation will change in the next 2 years, the Bank of England is expecting inflation to rise from 1.3% in 2016 to 2.7% in 2017 – which

in turn will start to have an impact on living standards across the North West. (23,24)

• Delivering the annual Charity Commission lecture, Prime Minister Theresa May announced a package of measures to transform

mental health support in schools, workplaces and communities, as part of her view to build a 'shared society'. The new measures

have a focus on care, early intervention, support for children and young people. (25,26)

North West Claimant Count (JSA and UC) unemployed by age • Since the EU referendum result on 24th June 2016, the

claimant count unemployment has fallen in the North West

by 3.5% from 105,000 to 102,000. (27)

• The claimant rate in December 2016 in the North West was

2.3% of the working age population, compared with 1.8% in the

UK. Within the region the rate varies from 2.8% in Liverpool

CR, 2.5% in Greater Manchester, 2.1% in Lancashire, 1.5% in

Cumbria; and 1.3% in Cheshire and Warrington.

• Year-on-year (December 2015 to 2016) analysis of change in

the number of unemployed claimants shows the total for the

region was up by just over 600. By age group the main findings

were:

• 16 to 24 year olds: There were 22,720 young people claiming

JSA/UC in December 2016, down 1,475 or -6.1% on

December 2015.

• 25 to 49 year olds: There were 56,395 residents claiming

JSA/UC in December 2016, up 610 or 1.1% on December

2015.

• 50+ year olds: There were 22,545 residents aged 50+

claiming JSA/UC in December 2016, up 1,485 or 7.1% on

December 2015.

40

7

Sources (1)

Executive summary

1. FT (January 3rd 2017): Economists still gloomy on long-term effects of Brexit.

https://www.ft.com/content/c2b0359e-d0dc-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0

2. The Guardian (January 2016): Chief economist of Bank of England admits errors in Brexit forecasting

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

3. HMG (January 2016): The government's negotiating objectives for exiting the EU: PM speech

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech

and BBC (24 January 2017) Brexit: Supreme Court says Parliament must give Article 50 go-ahead http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38720320

Macro economy

4. ONS (December 2016): Quarterly National Accounts: Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/quarter3julytosept2016

5. BoE (December 2016): Agents' Summary of Business Conditions, 2016 Q4

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/agentssummary/2016/dec.aspx

6. ONS (November 2016): International Trade Statistics Bulletin – Published 11 January

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/nov2016

7. Lloyds Bank (January 2017): The Lloyds Bank Regional Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/business-research/regional-pmi

8. ONS (December 2016): Consumer trends, UK: Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/bulletins/consumertrends/quarter3julytosept2016

9. ONS (November 2016): Consumer Price Inflation: Nov 2016

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/nov2016

Business Investment

10. HMG (January 2017): Green Paper - Building our Industrial Strategy

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/building-our-industrial-strategy

11. IHS Markit (December 2016): Manufacturing PMI - Manufacturing PMI at 30-month high as growth of output and new orders strengthen

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f0f8bc99ea5c44698c0c0cb1a841fe1a

12. IHS Markit (December 2016): Construction PMI - New order growth hits 11-month high in December

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/425db6a8dd6f48e0ae75e69fef7b279b

13. IHS Markit (December 2016): Services PMI - UK service sector ends 2016 with strong expansion

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/4290982327144083a5e931c3253650ee

41

7

Sources (2)

Trade, regulation and access to funding

14. HoC (December 2016): The Liaison Committee questions Theresa May MP on exiting the European Union, and health and social care spending.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/liaison-committee/news-parliament-20151/prime-minister-evidence-16-17

15. BBC News (24 January 2017): Brexit: Supreme Court says Parliament must give Article 50 go-ahead

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38720320

16. HMG (January 2017): Environment Secretary announces £120 million support for rural communities

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/environment-secretary-announces-120-million-support-for-rural-communities

17. New Economy: European Funds 2014 to 2020

http://neweconomymanchester.com/our-work/european-policy-and-funding/european-funding-2014-2020

Investment, housing, property and planning

18. New Economy (November 2016): Briefing 43 Autumn Statement 2016

http://neweconomymanchester.com/publications/briefing-43-autumn-statement-2016

19. UK Land Registry (October 2016): House Price Index Database

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/price-paid-data-downloads

20. Lambert Smith Hampton (January 2017): Q4 2016 UK Investment Transactions Bulletin – Property Data Archive

http://www.lsh.co.uk/commercial-property-research/2017/01/volume-rebounds-in-q4-as-overseas-investment-in-the-uk-regions-hits-record-level

21. Colliers International (2016): UK Research and Forecast Report - Manchester Offices November 2016

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/emea/uk/research/research%20and%20forecasting/201611_manchesterofficessnapshot.pdf?la=en-gb

Economic Inclusion

22. IHS Markit (December 2016): Household Finance Index - Current financial strain eases but outlook remains downbeat amid forecasts of higher inflation

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/560c5e48f74742f78f0cc46b8030861a

23. Bank of England (November 2016): Money and credit report

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/documents/mc/2016/nov/moneyandcredit.pdf

24. BBC (January 2017): Household debt rises to post-credit crunch high

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-38370219

25. HMG (January 2017): The shared society: Prime Minister's speech at the Charity Commission annual meeting

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-shared-society-prime-ministers-speech-at-the-charity-commission-annual-meeting

26. HMG (January 2017): The Government, Prime Minister unveils plans to transform mental health support

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-unveils-plans-to-transform-mental-health-support

27. ONS (2016): Claimant count (combined number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants and those claiming unemployment-related Universal Credit), NOMIS, November 2016

The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed: from April 2015, the Claimant Count includes all

Universal Credit claimants who are required to seek work and be available for work, as well as all JSA claimants; and between May 2013 and March 2015, the Claimant

Count includes all out of work Universal Credit claimants as well as all JSA claimants. https://www.nomisweb.co.uk

42

7


Date: 10 February 2017

Subject: NW Research Collaboration

Report of: Katrina Hann, New Economy

SummaryThe NW Regional Research Collaboration provides dedicated capacity to analyse shared issues for the NW’s LEP areas and the Isle of Man, as well as facilitating knowledge sharing between partners to explore strategic projects in more detail and at scale. The key areas of focus over the last three months have been on:

Capacity to provide the NW LEPs and partners with research and intelligence to take forward the Northern Powerhouse (NPH) following the conclusion of the NPH Independent Economic Review (IER).

In particular two research areas were identified from NPH IER as areas for further collaboration. These were:

o Skills: Completion of the report on the skills gaps which exist between the north and the rest of the UK with a focus on skills gaps which exist within the 50+ age group.

o Advanced Manufacturing: Working with Mike Damms and the Regional Manufacturing Forum to produce a baseline assessment of the manufacturing sector across the region, within sub-regions and by sub-sector to identify key issues in the sector

NW monthly Brexit Monitor to ensure NW LEPs and partners are briefed on the economic and social trends and policy developments arising from the decision to leave the EU.

Commencing refresh of the 2014 ‘Isle of Man and the North West’ report, which identified areas for collaboration between the IoM and NW LEPs.

Tax and Spend workshops with LEP areas, allowing them to apply the findings from the Tax and Spend analysis and provide the evidence base for further devolution conversations.

The planning process for the 2017/18 research programme (the second year of the current three year agreed programme) has also commenced with officers from the North West LEP areas, the Isle of Man and the NW BLT.

The paper provides an update on progress in relation to each of these priority research areas.

RecommendationsNW RLB members are asked to:

Note the progress made in relation to the 2016/17 research programme

43

8

NW RESEARCH COLLABORATIONUPDATE ON 2016/17 PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS

1. Introduction

1.1 The NW Regional Research Collaboration provides dedicated capacity to analyse shared issues for the NW’s LEP areas and the Isle of Man, as well as facilitating knowledge sharing between partners to explore strategic projects in more detail and at scale.

1.2 The priorities agreed as part of the 2016/17 research programme include key projects focussing on taking forward the Intelligence from the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review with respect to skills and advanced manufacturing, as well facilitating tax and spend workshops within each LEP area to explore how the tax and spend database New Economy has developed can be used most effectively in local decision making.

1.3 In addition to these key identified projects there is also research capacity to respond proactively to issues as they arise and this has been used most effectively to develop a monthly Brexit Monitor for NW LEPs. Since the vote to leave the EU, the New Economy has been monitoring the economic and social trends and policy developments to support NW LEPs in developing an appropriate policy response .

1.4 The following sections provide an update on progress in relation to each of the priority research areas.

2. A NW Evidence Base of 50+ Skills Issues

2.1 Building on the findings from the NPH IER, which identified skills gaps as a major challenge for the north, a key piece of work in this year’s research programme has analysed the skills gaps which exist between the North West and the rest of the UK with a specific focus on skills gaps within the 50+ age group. This work is now complete and the final report has been shared with officers across the region and will be published on the New Economy website.

Key findings

2.2 Amongst the report's key findings are:

• The over 50s are accounting for a growing share of employment and they are well represented within the NPH prime and enabling sectors.

• Despite this, the North West consistently lags behind the UK average in terms of employment rates of the over 50s (41% compared to 38% in the NW), while unemployment and economic inactivity rates are higher than the national average. Cheshire & Warrington and Cumbria are in line with the UK average for employment, unemployment and inactivity rates of the over 50s, while Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Liverpool City Region lag behind.

• Unemployment amongst the over 50s is relatively low, however once unemployed, older people are more likely to be long-term unemployed. Unemployment rates for the over 50s have tended to be below the national average over the last decade in Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire & Warrington, while in

44

8

Liverpool City Region and in Greater Manchester they are higher. Nationally, 29% of the unemployed are classed as long term unemployed compared to 31% in the North West.

• Whilst unemployment is low, large numbers of the over 50s are economically inactive and this is more of an issue in the NW than nationally. Reasons for economic inactivity include care responsibilities and poor health, highlighting how these issues can act as a significant barrier to employment amongst the 50+ cohort.

• Over 50s in the NW are more likely to hold lower level qualifications than the UK average and this is contributing to the productivity gap. There are 380,000 workers aged 50-64 within the NW who hold less than a level two qualification, making up 28.6% of the 50-64 cohort age group. This is above the UK average of 26.3% and significantly above the NW workforce (16-64 year olds) at 21.4%.

• There is also a higher level skills gap with only 30.2% of workers aged 50-64 in the NW holding a level 4 qualification compared to the UK average of 34.7%. At a sub-regional level, only Cheshire & Warrington has a higher proportion of its 50-64 population qualified to NVQ 4+ than the national average. Cumbria has a rate 0.7 percentage points lower than the national average. All other areas have far lower proportions of their older populations qualified to level 4.

• Skills forecasts suggest that the demand for NVQ level 4 qualifications in the North West will increase by 6.5% between 2014 – 2024 compared to 8.5% nationally. This could have significant implications for those parts of the North West which already lag behind the regional and national averages for level 4 skills.

• Older people face a number of barriers to employment, with skills issues, particularly a lack of digital skills, chief amongst these. Other barriers identified include: a lack of adequate financial incentives to remain in or return to work, poor health, caring responsibilities, age discrimination, and a lack of employment support to move back into work (including training and limited access to flexible working opportunities).

• Our research found that mainstream employment support for the over 50s is generic and not tailored to the needs of this cohort. However, there are good examples of local initiatives to support the over 50s into employment, including a Retraining and Reskilling ESF funded programme in Cheshire & Warrington and Greater Manchester’s work with the GM Ageing Hub and Centre for Ageing Better to support the over 50s back into employment.

Recommendations

2.3 The report makes a number of recommendations focussed on those areas considered to be the greatest challenges for the region. The most critical issue though, is in raising awareness of the agenda itself and the issues faced with respect to an ageing workforce.

2.4 In the short term there is a timely opportunity for NW LEPs to ensure that the skills needs of older workers are considered as part of the Area Based Review processes taking place across the NW. Longer term, NW LEPs will need to decide how the report can best be taken forward in their area. For example, in Greater Manchester, the report is an integral part of the evidence base for the GM Ageing Hub.

3. Manufacturing

3.1 The NPH IER identified Advanced Manufacturing as a prime sector and New Economy, through this research programme, committed to undertake research into the region’s Advanced Manufacturing sector to help LEPs better understand the sector and its key supply chain linkages and growth opportunities.

45

8

3.2 To this end, New Economy is supporting the Regional Manufacturing Forum to produce a baseline assessment of the manufacturing sector across the region, within sub-regions and by sub-sector. New Economy input to date has involved data analysis of the sector, a national policy review, and the consideration of progress against LEP strategic economic plans and priorities.

3.3 The Regional Manufacturers Forum intends to use the work as the basis for discussions with industry and sector bodies, leading to fuller responses to the recently announced industrial strategy consultation and the Strategic Economic Plan refresh process.

4. Brexit

4.1 There is scope within the Research Programme to respond proactively to major policy announcements and this has been used within the 2016/17 programme to brief NW LEPs and partners on economic and social trends and policy developments arising from the decision to leave the EU.

4.2 The NW Brexit Monitor is produced on a monthly basis and tracks the impact of Brexit across the following key themes:

• Macro-economy trends and developments• Key sectors (including business investment)• Rules, regulations and terms of trade & access to European Funding• Property investment, housing and planning• Economic inclusion

4.3 The key findings and latest monitor are included in a separate agenda item.

5. Isle of Man

5.1 As part of the 2016/17 research programme, New Economy agreed to refresh its 2014 report for the IoM which identified areas for collaboration between the IOM and NW LEPs. This timely refresh would take into account the changes to the political and economic context since 2014, including Brexit, a leadership change in government and the development of the Northern Powerhouse. It will ensure that the detail and recommendations reflect the IoM’s key priorities and incorporates the developments that the IoM have made since its publication. Contact has been made with the new Chief Executive for Economic Development to discuss this further, together with ideas for the collaboration going forward.

6. Tax and spend

6.1 As part of the 2016/17 research programme, New Economy agreed to support LEPs to apply the findings from the Tax and Spend analysis, providing the evidence base for further devolution conversations. The tax and spend tool reveals total net expenditure by all public sector organisations, broken down to a local authority level; and total tax generated, also broken down to a local authority area. The tool enables LA’s / LEPs to better understand an area’s financial situation: from its net reliance on HM Treasury to how much local and national bodies spend within a specific geography.

6.2 New Economy has now organised a number of tax and spend workshops for NW LEPS with these sessions tailored to the needs of the area. A workshop has

46

8

been held with senior officers from Lancashire County Council and a date has also been agreed with Cheshire & Warrington LEP. Other LEP areas are asked to provide suitable dates for a workshop in their area or contact New Economy for further information.

7. Northern Powerhouse Partnership update

7.1 For further information, we have been working with the Northern Powerhouse Partnership (NPP), launched in September 2016 by George Osbourne, to ensure that the evidence base developed by the North West is factored into their analysis. The independent, not for profit, partnership is being chaired by George Osborne with the objective of helping to maintain the momentum of the Northern Powerhouse and to raise the prosperity of the north of England. It has a business-led board, including representatives from key companies operating across the North including Manchester Airports Group, Mace, Barclays, Associated British Ports, Siemens, HSBC, EY, Addleshaw Goddard, Arcadis, Drax, Arup, and Bruntwood. These organisations are expected to play an important role in providing insight and evidence to drive the Partnership forward. The NPP will also play close attention to the views of small and medium-sized businesses. Prominent city leaders across the North of England are represented on the Board, in addition to Lord Jim O’Neill, former Commercial Secretary to the Treasury, John Cridland, Chair of Transport for the North (TfN) and Dame Nancy Rothwell, President of the University of Manchester, to ensure that the NPP maintains a cross-party approach.

7.3 The NPP will engage with communities right across the North to develop consensus amongst business, civic leaders, and others on the issues that will enable the NPP to drive transformational change throughout the Northern economy. It will focus on those priority issues which can make the biggest difference to growth across the North, putting in place the evidence base needed to support action – as well as taking forward the work of the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review (NPIER). To help inform this work the NPP set up a series of round-tables across the cities of the North and invited local businesses, civic leaders, and academics to attend and feed-in view on what actions the Partnership must focus on in order to achieve the greatest collective impact. These events were held in Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Sheffield and Leeds. The First Report of the NPP was launched in Leeds on 3 February with recommended actions around Skills & Education; Infrastructure & Assets; International Competitiveness; Leadership & Learning.

8. Developing next year’s research programme

8.1 The 2017/18 research programme is currently in development and will identify specific areas for research as well as additional capacity for responding to policy announcements and monitoring the NW economy. The 2017/18 research programme represents year 2 of the 3 year agreement.

8.2 Potential research areas for 2017/18 include:

• Continued monitoring of key social, economic, and environmental indicators in the North West through the monthly Brexit Monitor and support to LEPs to respond to the opportunities and challenges which the decision to leave the EU represents.

• Taking forward the Government’s Industrial Strategy. Further research support to NW LEPs to implement the government’s place-based Industrial Strategy ensuring

47

8

that it drives growth and living standards through the Brexit transition in each LEP area.

• Building on the NPH IER, undertake further research into the potential of one of the NW’s prime sectors (Manufacturing has been a key area of work in the 2016/17 programme so it is suggested that the RLB agree to focus on either Energy, Health Innovation or Digital in the 2017/18 programme)

8.3 If RLB members have any specific suggestions for research that can be undertaken at a NW level then they are asked to either contact Katrina Hann direct or contact their LEP officer listed below. Key areas of research for next years’ programme will be discussed at the next RRC meeting in February and a full proposal will be brought to the next meeting of the RLB.

Liverpool City Region: Peter Hughes - [email protected]

Cheshire and Warrington: Andy Hulme [email protected]

Lancashire: Andy Walker [email protected]

Greater Manchester: Esther Barnes [email protected]

Cumbria: Ginny Murphy [email protected]

Isle of Man: Mark Lewin [email protected]

48

8







north west regional leaders board agenda · over recent months leaders have been developing a...

Documents