Northern Ireland

Poultry Conference

Graeme Dear

General Manager

Aviagen UK Ltd

“The Broiler Industry –

A Strategy for Survival”

• Pick the breed the market needs

• Grow them

• Keep them alive

• Produce the size the market wants

• Produce them at the lowest cost

• Sell them at the highest price

Thanks for listening

“The Broiler Industry –

A Strategy for Survival”

• But it does depend………….

• Where you are, who you grow for, what

you grow for, how you manage your

birds and the birds you have to play with

• Survival in the context of the Broiler

Industry and for a Primary Breeder can

mean many things

Pedigree

Selection

Genetic

Improvement

GGP

Grandparent Stock

Parent Stock

Broilers

Processing

Retailers / Consumers

Aviagen 2013

2014

2015

2017

2016

1 x 10 ♂ ♀

50,000,000

Broilers

70,000 Tons

of Meat

150 GGPs

7500 GPs

375,000 PS

This is what we do

Your Survival is Our Survival

• We strive to make chickens grow faster

• To eat less feed

• To live well with fewer losses

• To deliver better meat yields

• In short – we aim to produce more for

less

A shared Strategy / a shared Survival

• We strive to make things

grow faster

• Eat less feed

• Live well

• Better yield

• In short – we aim to

produce more for less

• Pick the breed the market

needs

• Grow them

• Keep them alive

• Produce the size the

market wants

• Produce them at the

lowest cost

• Sell them at the highest

price

Broiler Production is done in a wide range of

Production Environments

Immune Challenge

Gut Challenge

Feed Quality

Litter Quality

Housing

Incubation

Brooding

And Socio - Economic Environments

Kids education

A life’s work

(together)

Food for the family

Successful business Feeding the world

Our job is to produce products

that work in all of these situations

and meet all of these needs

Your job is to make it happen

And if we both do our jobs – we

will both survive

Global Poultry

4-5% growth

per annum

9-10bn

people by

2050

Rapid

increase in

wealth

Huge numbers of

people want to eat

chicken And there’s no let

up – it’s the

cheapest meat

protein

The growth is not here

7 It’s here

North America

Latin America

78 mil PS

96 mil PS

133 mil PS

82 mil PS

68 mil PS

Total: 457m PS

World PS Market Volumes

Europe

Middle East

& Africa Asia, Australia

& New Zealand

457,000,000*130=

59,410,000,000

broilers

Global Human Population vs

Chicken Meat Consumption

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

kg/p

erso

n

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

mil

lio

n p

eop

le

Consumption Human Population

11.7 kg/person

83mt

95mt

88.9mt

489 PS

(32m

more)

522m PS

(65m

extra)

457m

PS

50,000,000*130=

6,510,000,000

broilers

So what????

And for sure, with 60m in UK,

4.5m in Eire, 740m in Europe

and a bit of growth here and

there your market is secure

Global Chicken Meat Production

Tonnes per annum

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Global Growth in Chicken Meat

Actual

Projection

30% in 10 Years

FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Division 2011

The label said:

Product of

Brazil

or EU

All good so far – no need for a

Survival Strategy as yet

• But chicken doesn’t just come from Ireland, or

indeed Europe – so we need to compete

• 33-65m more PS means another 6.5bn broilers

per year in 5 years time

• 6.5bn broilers at 2 kg means 13m tonnes more

broiler meat per annum

• 13m tonnes more broiler meat at 1.65 FCR

means 21.5m tonnes more feed needed

16 M tons of grains used for

Ethanol in 2000.

By 2010, this rose to 126 M or

35% of the total grain

production Source: Philip Wilkinson

The ability to grow food

is fast becoming a new

form of geological

leverage and countries

are scrambling to

secure their own

parochial interests at

the expense of the

common good

Food is the new oil:

Source: Philip Wilkinson

Compete to Survive

• Where does all that chicken food come from?

• How can it compete for food against oil?

• How can we compete in Ireland, the UK and

Europe as a net importer of food when others

are acquiring land for themselves?

• How can we survive?

Sustainability

• Sustainability criteria: – Meet current needs without compromising future

– Triple Bottom Line (3 BL) principle • People – Planet – Profit

– Consumer trust – shared values principle • Ethically – Scientifically – Economically viability

We’re Doomed,

aye we’re a’

Doomed

A Strategy for Survival

• Produce more tonnes per sqm

• Faster throughput without

compromising on health and welfare

• Better FCR

• Better survival

• Lower cost

• And that’s where we come in….

RAPID BALANCED PROGRESS

BREEDER LIVE BROILER

SUPPORT

PROCESSING

Metabolic Fitness

Pathogen Freedom

Skeletal Strength

Disease Resistance

Liveability

Welfare Traits

Chicks Growth FCR Yield

Direction of Aviagen Breeding

1972 1996 2012

Progress Produce more tonnes per sqm

1972 1996 2012 2042

Carcase and meat

Better yield – less days to weight

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

BWT INDEX

HH

P IN

DE

X

Eggs

Birds of interest

Getting the Balance Right

Weight

We select simultaneously for over 20 traits!

Genomics – the Concept

DNA

Information at the Phenotypic Level

Pedigree

Selection

Candidate

Good Accuracy

Best Accuracy

Predicting Genetic Merit

GATGGCTCTTTGGAAGACGATGACTATCATGCC

GATGGCTCTTTGGAAGATGATGACTATCATGC

Information at the Gene Level

Combining all

sources of information

Good Env

Challenge Env

Processing

How does the process work Standard Pedigree pens – 1 male and 10-12 females

Pedigree group pens – reconstructed pedigree

The Lab

Male contribution over time

Note:

Sires 5 and 10 dominated at the beginning of contribution, sire 5 died in week 17

While sire 10 lost in the hierarchy after becoming lame and losing condition

Second half of the period shows more even contributions due to less dominant sires

Progeny per Sire

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Hatch

Weekly

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n %

Sire 1

Sire 2

Sire 3

Sire 4

Sire 5

Sire 6

Sire 7

Sire 8

Sire 9

Sire 10

Randy

Rooster Patience

is a

virtue

Females which mate with more sires

are more fertile & produce more chicks

y = 4.3165x + 4.0648

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

No

of

Ch

icks

No of Males Mated

Female Mating Behaviour

Wall

Flower

Looking

for Mr

Right

Slappers

FPD

Uniformity

Broiler Mortality

Robustness

Leg strength

Fertility

Hatchability

Liveability

Egg production

FCR

Typical Selection Balance

Growth

Yield

One Third :

Broiler

Performance

One Third :

Breeder

Fitness

One Third :

Welfare

FCR

But if I had to focus on

one to Survive

Food is

the new

oil:

• Linked to growth

• Highest cost

• Greatest global

competition

• Volatile cost

• Greatest sustainability

impact

Life-Time FCR

• Group FCR using

Transponder Technology

• Feed stations

– Maximise recording

– Incorporate aspects of

feeding behaviour

Covering 2 to 5 weeks

- Early Growth efficiency

- Detailed feeding behaviour

- Group feeding behaviour

Ross 308 : 35 day Weight & FCR

0.014 per annum

58 g per annum

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

2.800

Biological Performance of Meat Type Chickens

1982 2012 2042

35 Day weight 1407 2472 3537

Growth per day (g) 40.2 70.6 101.1

Age at 2Kg 50 28 20

35 day FCR 2.348 1.475 1.038

35 day mortality 6.7 6.1 5.5

The current/next generation

Part of your Survival is how you

use the genetic potential

UK

tonnes 1,400,000

kilos meat 1,400,000,000 1000

kilos birds 2,000,000,000 0.70 yield %

Broilers 909,090,909 2.2 weight Kg

GPS 155,400 45 chicks

PS 6,993,007 130 chicks

Broilers / week 17,482,517 52

progress

feed 3,560,000,000 1.780 fcr 0.025

cost £979,000,000 0.275

feed 3,510,000,000 1.755 fcr

cost £965,250,000 0.275

Saving to UK £13,750,000

Assume Feed is all wheat Yield 8 Tonnes per hectare

Save almost 6300 hectares

UK Market : Impact of FCR Effect of one years genetic progress

We cannot afford not to improve FCR

Predicted Annual Progress

• Broilers

• Live weight (g) 40 to 50g

• FCR -0.02 to -0.03

• Carcase Yield (%) 0.20 to 0.25

• Breast Yield (%) 0.25 to 0.30

Our Joint Survival Pack

cow milk 35

SR milk 79

hen eggs

23

beef 111

pork 36 chick

en 26

mutton 103

kg CO2 per kg protein

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020. p143

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932427132

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Livestock EU

Environmental Impact Life Cycle Assessment

Impacts & resources used / t of carcass, / 20,000 eggs (~ 1 t) / 10m3 milk GWP=Global Warming Potential; ARU = Scale related to scarcety of resources Williams et al, 2006. p4 Determining the environmental burdens and resouce use in the production of agricultural and horticultural commodities. DEFRA project report ISO 205

Together we can Survive

Thanks for Listening