northside regeneration project white paper - crime, by missouri wonk
TRANSCRIPT
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
NorthSide: Crime
Initsbeginnings,St.Louiswasaveryhappy
andpeacefulcity.Thiswasevidentbythefact
thattherewasnotasingleconvictionfor
murderduringthe>irsthalfcenturyofits
settlement,andhalfthehousesofthe
inhabitantshadnolocksinthemoron
them(Shepard,43).Thisfacthaschangedconsiderablysincethecityspeacefultimesin
thelateeighteenthandearlynineteenth
centuries.Thereisareportthatcomesout
eachyearthatrankscitiesaccordingtothe
prevalenceofcrime.St.Louisoftenappears
eitheratthetopornearthetopofthelist.1
MissouriWonkgathereddatafrom1970to
2010forthestateofMissouri,St.LouisCity,
andthetwopolicedistrictsthatprimarily
encompasstheNorthSidearea,2Districts4and
5,3,4foreachoftheindexcrimeslistedinthe
IndexCrimesboxonthenextpage.
MissouriWonkalsousedhistoriccensusdata5
toapproximatethecrimerateforeachofthe
typesofcrimesforthetimeperiod1970-2010.
Thepopulationestimatesandcrimeratesare
basedonthepopulation>igurescontainedin
Summary
TheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDistrictsthatencompasstheNorthSidearea,Districts4and5,
haveexperiencedsigni>icantlygreatercrimeratesoneverymajorcrimeindicatorthaneitherthe
CityofSt.LouisorthestateofMissourioverthepastfourdecades.Theareaespeciallysuffers
fromahighrateofpersoncrimes;between2001and2010,thetotalpersoncrimeratewas63%
higherthanthecitysrateand8XgreaterthanMissourisrate.Allofthiscrimetranslatesinto
higherstateprisonspendingattributabletotheNorthSideareaofthecity.Whilethearea
accountsforlessthan0.25%ofthestatespopulation,itisresponsibleformorethan1%ofthe
statescorrectionsspending.Theamountofprisonspendingattributabletotheareaisnearly
twiceasmuchonapercapitabasisasSt.LouisCityandnearly5XtheamountoftheSt.Louis
metropolitanarea.CrimeintheNorthSideareaalsoresultsinsigni>icantlymorepercapitastatejudicialspendingthantheotherareasofcomparison.
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Table1forDistricts4and5combinedandSt.LouisCityasawhole.
Toestimatethepopulationforeachyearin
betweeneachdecade,MissouriWonk
apportionedthedeclineinpopulationevenly
acrosseachyear.Foreachanalysis,Missouri
Wonkusedtherateoftheparticularcrime,whichisthenumberofcrimesperevery
100,000people.
Table1:DemographicIndicators
Year Districts4and5(combined) St.LouisCity
1970 108,625 622,236
1980 60,482 452,801
1990 50,985 396,685
2000 38,607 348,189
2010 35,175 319,294
IndexCrimes
MurdersandNon-NegligentManslaughter
ForcibleRape
Robbery
AggravatedAssault
TotalPersonCrime(Totalfrom>irst4categories)
BurglaryandBreakingandEntering
Larceny(Theftover$50)
AutoTheft
TotalPropertyCrimes4(Totalfromsecond3categories)
TotalIndexCrimes(TotalPersonCrime+TotalPropertyCrime)
Table1:PopulationEstimates
Sources: UnitedStatesBureauoftheCensus,Table46:593-595
NeighborhoodChangeDatabasebyGeolyticsInc.
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Thegraphaboveshowsthatthemurderandnon-negligentmanslaughterrateofpolicedistricts4
and5,thetwodistrictsthatprimarilyencompasstheNorthSidearea,hasbeenhigherthanSt.
LouisCitysorMissourisrateandhassomewhattrackedthetrendofSt.LouisCity.However,
therehasbeenarecentspikeintheDistrict4and5ratebetween2005and2010,whichhas
departedfromthetrendofSt.LouisCity.Missourismurderandnon-negligentmanslaughterrate
hasheldrelativelysteadyoverthefortyyearperiod.Overthe1970-2010timeframe,Districts4
and5sratehasbeenabout71%higherthanthecitysrateand9XMissourisrate;between2001
and2010,thedistrictsratewas83%higherthanthecitysrateandmorethan11XMissouris
rate.
MurdersandNon-NegligentManslaughters
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-19896
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment
1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
ForcibleRapes
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
TherateofforciblerapesinDistricts4and5hasmostlytrackedwithSt.LouisCityoverthepast
fourdecades,althoughgenerally,ithasbeenhigher.Fromthegraphabove,therewereonlyfour
timeswhentheforcibleraperateofSt.LouisCityexceededthatofDistricts4and5:1970,the
mid-1970s,1981,and2003.Mostrecently,therewasaspikeinthenumberofthesecrimesinthemid-2000s;however,thistrendhasstartedtodecreaseinbothareasin2008.Therateofforcible
rapesinMissourihascomparativelybeensteadyoverthattimeframe,andmuchlowerthaneither
areaforallbutoneyear,2003.From1970to2010,thedistrictsrateofforciblerape,onaverage,
wasabout36%higherthanthecitysrateand3.5XMissourisrate;between2001and2010,the
districtsratewas46%higherthanthecitysrateand3.5XMissourisrate.
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
TherateofrobberyinDistricts4and5hasbeenhigherthaninSt.LouisCityoverthepastfour
decades,sometimesdoublingthecitysrate.ThegraphaboveshowshowDistrict4and5strendhaslargelymimickedthecitys,buthasalwaybeenhigher.Incontrast,Missourisrobberyrate
hasbeensteadybutmuchlowerthanDistricts4and5orSt.LouisCity.From1970to2010,the
districtsratewas,onaverage,almost53%higherthanthecitysrateand9XMissourisrate;
between2001and2010,theirratewas59%higherthanthecitysandalmost11XMissourisrate.
Robberies
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment
1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
WhilealwaysgreaterthanSt.LouisCity,therateofaggravatedassaultsinDistricts4and5grewat
afasterrateinthemid-1970sandhasbeenconsiderablyhighersince.From1970to2010,on
average,thedistrictsratewas48%greaterthanthecitysand5.6Xtheaggravatedassaultrateof
Missouri.Between2001and2010,theirratewas,onaverage,60%higherthanthecitysand6X
Missourisrate.
AggravatedAssaults
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment
1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Thetotalnumberofpersoncrimesisacombinationofmurdersandnon-negligent
manslaughters,forciblerapes,robberiesandaggravatedassaults;astherearefarmore
robberiesandaggravatedassaults,thosecrimesin>luencethisrateconsiderablymore.Therate
oftotalpersoncrimesinDistricts4and5has,onaverage,been51%higherthanthecitysrate
andnearly7XtherateofMissourioverthepastfourdecades.Between2001and2010,thetotal
personcrimerateinDistricts4and5was,onaverage,63%greaterthanthecitysandmore
than8XtherateofMissouri.
TotalPersonCrimes
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
TherateofburglaryandbreakingandenteringinDistricts4and5spikedinthelate1970sand
early1980sandthenagainintheearly1990s,butotherwisehascloselytrackedSt.LouisCitys
rate.ThedistrictsratehasalwaysbeenhigherthanMissourisrateoverthefourdecadetimeframe.From1970to2010,therateofDistricts4and5was,onaverage,13.5%greaterthan
thecitysrateandmorethan3XMissourisrate;between2001-2010,theirratewas,onaverage,
98%ofthecitysratebutstillabout2.9XMissourisrate.
BurglaryandBreaking&Entering
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment
1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Larceny
Thestatisticsintheearly1970sareskewedforDistricts4and5andSt.LouisCitybecausetheU.S
DepartmentofJusticestandardizedcrimereportingincitiesin1973,hencethesharpincreasein
1973forbothareas.TherateoflarcenyinDistricts4and5hasbeenconsistentlyhigherthan
boththecityandMissouriexceptforabrieftimeintheearly2000swhentheirratedippedbelow
thecitys.Between1973and2010,Districts4and5sratewas,onaverage,49%higherthanthe
citysand3.4XMissourisrate;from2001to2010,theirratewas,onaverage,63%higherthanthe
citysand4XMissourisrate.
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
AutoTheft
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment
1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
TherateofautotheftinDistricts4and5andcloselytrackedthecitysoverthepastfour
decades;ithasconsistentlybeenhigherthanMissourisrateoverthattimeframe.From1970to
2010,theautotheftrateinDistricts4and5,onaverage,was24%higherthanthecitysrateand
5.5XhigherthanMissourisrate.Between2001and2010,theirratewas,onaverage,41%higherthanthecitysand7.6XMissourisrate.
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
TotalCrime
Sources:
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989
CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment1990-2010
U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000
AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/
crime/mocrimn.htm
Totalcrimeconsistsofthetotalamountofpersoncrimesandpropertycrimes;forpurposesof
thisanalysis,arsonisexcludedfrompropertycrimesforthethreeareas;becausetherearemore
propertycrimesthanpersoncrimes,therateismoreheavilyin>luencedbypropertycrimes.TherateoftotalindexcrimeinDistricts4and5hasconsistentlybeenhigherthaneitherthecity
orMissouri.From1973to2010,therateoftotalcrimeinDistricts4and5was,onaverage40%
higherthanthecitysrateand4XMissourisrate.Between2001and2010,theirratewas,on
average,47%higherthanthecitysrateand4.6XMissourisrate.
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Thesecrimeshaveconsequences,especially
forthestatesbudget,asMissourihastopay
tohousethecriminalsconvictedoftheoffenseslistedaboveaswellasotheroffenses
andalsopayforsupervisionofthose
sentencedtoprobationorparole.The
availabilityofdataregardingtheamountof
prisonspendingattributabletocrimes
committedinaspeci>icareaisnotreadily
available.Tomakeprojectionsregardingthe
amountofprisonspendingattributabletothe
NorthSideareaofSt.Louis,MissouriWonk
hadtorelyonavarietyofsourcesof
informationincludingMissouriDepartment
ofCorrectionsAnnualReportsRelatingtothe
OffenderPopulation,andSt.LouisCitycrime
statisticsreportedbyneighborhood.
Generally,therearetwotypesofDepartment
ofCorrectionsexpenditures:incarceration
expenditures(thoseassociatedwithhousing
prisoninmates)andsupervisionexpenditures(thoseassociatedwith
probationandparolecosts).In>iscalyear
2010,theannualcostofincarceratinga
prisonerwas$16,308(Eddy).Additionally,
thecostsofsupervisingaprisoneramountto
$1,431(SB320FiscalNote2011).These
costswillbeusedtocalculatetheamountof
prisonspendingattributabletoanarea.2
FirstMissouriWonkgatheredthetotal
amountofprisonersfromSt.LouisCity,the
numberofoffendersthatareonprobation,
andthenumberofoffenderswhoareon
parole.Accordingtothe2010Departmentof
Correctionsdocument,APro>ileofthe
MissouriCorrectionsSpending
InstitutionalandSupervisedOffender
PopulationonJune302010,St.LouisCity
wasresponsibleforsentencing4,521prisonersinMissouriprisons,4,623offenders
onprobation,and1,978offenderson
probation(16,79,80).
MissouriWonkalsogatheredinformationon
thecrimesforwhichprisonerswere
sentencedinMissouri;thesecrimesare
containedinTable2.MissouriWonkassumes
thatcriminaloffensesoftheoffender
populationinSt.Louisissimilartothe
criminaloffensesoftheoffenderpopulation
inMissouri.
Next,MissouriWonkgatheredinformationon
crimescommittedintheneighborhoods
eitherpartiallyorwhollylocatedinthe
NorthSideareaofSt.Louis;MissouriWonk
assumesthatthenumberandtypesofcrimes
oftheNorthSideneighborhoodsrelativetotheCityofSt.Louisservesasareasonable
NeighborhoodsEitherPartiallyor
WhollywithintheNorthSideArea
DowntownWest
Jeff-Vander-Lou
St.LouisPlace
CarrSquareColumbusSquare
OldNorthSt.Louis
NearNorthRiverfront
HydePark
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
proxytodeterminethenumberofthecitys
prisonersandsupervisedoffendersthatare
attributabletotheNorthSideneighborhoods.
Aftertotalingthenumberandtypesofcrimes
intheNorthSideneighborhoodsaswellasin
St.LouisCity,MissouriWonkdeterminedthe
percentageofeachtypeofcrimeinSt.Louis
CitylistedinTable2thatisattributabletotheneighborhoods.Thesepercentagesare
containedinTable3.
Afterdeterminingthenumberofcrimesof
theoffenderpopulationaswellasthe
numberandtypesofcrimesoftheNorthSide
neighborhoodsandSt.LouisCity,Missouri
WonkappliedtheMissouricrimetype
percentagescontainedinTable2tothe
offenderpopulationofSt.LouisCity.Next,
MissouriWonkappliedtheSt.LouisCity
crimescommittedintheNorthSideareato
theoffenderpopulationaswelltogetan
estimateofthenumberofoffendersattributabletotheNorthSideareabythetype
ofcrime;theresultsfromtheseapplications
arecontainedinTable4.
TypeofCrime Prison Probation Parole
Person 53.6% 14.5% 24%
Property 20.7% 30.25% 31.9%Drugs 17.8% 34.25% 33.1%
DWI 4.2% 7.9% 4.3%
Other 3.7% 13.1% 6.7%
Source:MissouriDepartmentofCorrections,2010AnnualReport
Table2:2010Prison,Probation,andParoleCrimes
TypesofCrimes
AccordingtotheMissouriDepartmentofCorrections2010AnnualReport,thetypesofcrimes
belowincludethefollowingoffenses:Person
Murder,Rape,Robbery,Assault,SexualAssault,ChildMolestation,ElderAbuse,andArson1
Property
Burglary,Stealing,Forgery,Arson2
Drugs
Possession,Sales,Manufacture,Traf>icking
DWI
Other
Weapons,PublicOrderOffenses,Non-Support
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
UsingtheestimatesforthenumberofSt.Louis
Cityprisoners,offendersonprobation,and
offendersonparolethatareattributabletothe
NorthSideneighborhoodsthatarecontainedin
Table4,MissouriWonkcandeterminethe
amountofMissouricorrectionsspending
attributabletotheNorthSidearea.Earlier,MissouriWonkindicatedthatspendingoneach
TypeofCrime
PercentageofSt.
LouisCrimes
Attributabletothe
NorthSide
Neighborhoods
Person 12.9%
Property 10.0%
Drugs 15.0%
DWI 6.9%
Other 11.1%
Table3:PercentageofSt.Louis
CrimesCommittedintheNorthSide
AreabyTypeofCrime
Source:St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment,Crimes2006-2010
Typeof
Crime
Prison
St.LouisCity
Prison
NorthSide
Nbhds
Probation
St.LouisCity
Probation
NorthSide
Nbhds
Parole
St.LouisCity
Parole
NorthSide
Nbhds
Person 2,424 312 671 86 475 61
Property 936 94 1,398 140 631 63Drugs 807 121 1,583 238 655 98
DWI 188 13 364 25 84 6
Other 166 18 607 67 133 15
Total 4,521 558 4,623 556 1,978 243
Table4:EstimatedCriminalOffendersofSt.LouisCityandNorthSideby
TypeofCrime
Sources:DatafromTables2&3andMissouriDOC2010OffenderPopulationPro>ile
prisoneramountedto$16,308peryear
whilespendingoneachsupervisedoffender
amountedto$1,431peryear.However,
beforeMissouriWonkestimatestheamount
ofprisonspendingattributabletothe
NorthSidearea,onemoreadjustmentmust
bemade.Thepopulationoftheareaof
analysisis14,821whilethepopulationof
theneighborhoodslocatedwhollyor
partiallyintheNorthSideareais22,216,
accordingtothe2010census.Asaresult,
MissouriWonkestimatesthattheamountof
prisonspendingattributabletothe
NorthSideareais66.7%oftheamountof
prisonspendingattributabletotheneighborhoodswhollyorpartiallyinthe
NorthSidearea.
Usingthe>iguresprovidedinTable4,this
amountstoatotalof579prisonersand
$9,442,332intotalprisonspendinganda
supervisedpopulationof799and
$1,143,369inspendingonoffender
supervision;thiscomestoatotalof
$10,585,701thatisattributabletothe
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
NorthSideneighborhoodswhollyorpartially
intheNorthSideareaofSt.Louisin2010.
Afterapplyingthepopulationadjustment,
thiscomestoanestimated372prisonersand
$6,066,576inMissouriprisonspendingand
533supervisedoffendersand$762,723in
supervisionspendingattributabletothe
NorthSideareain2010,foratotalof$6,829,299.MissouriWonkcanalsousethe
datacontainedintheMissouriDepartmentof
CorrectionsOffenderPro>ileReportto
comparetheNorthSidesamountofprison
andoffendersupervisionspendingtothe
areasofSt.LouisCity,theSt.Louis
metropolitanarea7,andMissouri.These
>iguresarecontainedinTables5and6.The
informationinTable6isalsorepresentedin
avisualformatinChart1.
AreaPrison
Population
Prison
Spending
Supervised
Offender
Population
Supervised
Offender
Spending
Total
Spending
NorthSide 372 $6,066,576 533 $762,723 $6,829,299
STLCity 4,521 $73,728,468 6,601 $9,446,031 $83,174,499
STLMetro 9,751 $159,019,308 22,422 $32,085,882 $191,105,190
Missouri 30,327 $494,572,716 73,683 $105,440,373 $600,013,089
Table5:CorrectionsSpending
Notes:Assumes$16,308inspendingperprisonerand$1,431inspendingpersupervised
offender.InformationforFranklinCountyparole numberswereunavailable,soMissouri
WonkextrapolatedtheSTLMetroSupervisedOffenderPopulation>igurebasedon
informationavailablefortheotherfourcountiesandFranklinCountys2010population.
Source:MissouriDepartmentofCorrections,APro>ileoftheInstitutionalandSupervisedOffenderPopulationonJune302010,
Area CorrectionsSpending PopulationCorrectionsSpending
PerCapita
NorthSide $6,829,299 14,821 $461
STLCity $83,174,499 319,156 $261
STLMetro $191,105,190 2,000,231 $96
Missouri $600,013,089 5,996,231 $100
Table6:CorrectionsSpendingPerCapita
Sources:DatafromTable5andMissouriDOC2011OffenderPopulationPro>ilefor
populationestimates
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
$500.00
NorthSide STLCity STLMetro Missouri
Graph1:CorrectionsSpendingPerCapita
Theamountofstatecorrectionsspending
attributabletotheNorthSideareaisnearly
twiceasmuch,onapercapitabasis,asthe
correctionsspendingattributabletoSt.LouisCityandnearly5Xasmuchasthecorrections
spendingattributabletoeithertheSt.Louis
metropolitanareaorMissouri.
MissouriJudicialandLegalSpending
Beforecriminalsareeithersupervisedor
incarceratedtheymustventurethrough
Missourisjudicialandlegalsystem.Some
receiveassistancefrompublicdefendersand
allaresubjecttobothprosecutionandcourt
procedures.
TheUnitedStatesBureauofJusticeStatistics
collectsdataonjusticeexpendituresofstate
andlocalgovernments.The2009data,the
latestyeardataisavailable,reportsthat
Missouristategovernmentexpended
$245,460,000onthejudicialandlegal
processes;thisamountincludesalljudicial
andlegalexpenses.
Indeterminingtheamountofstatejudicial
andlegalexpensesattributabletoaspeci>icgeographicarea,MissouriWonkreferredto
otherstudiesthathaveattemptedtoanswer
thesamequestion.Themostnotablerecent
studyisa2010analysisentitled,TheCostof
CrimetoSociety:NewCrime-Speci>ic
EstimatesforPolicyandProgram
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Area NumberofArrests
NorthSide 2,407*
STLCity 30,306
STLMetro 157,354
Missouri 375,160
Table7:2010NumberofArrests
Source:CrimeinMissouri2010,Missouri
StateHighwayPatrol
*MissouriWonkEstimate
JudicialandLegalCostPerArrest
2009EstimateofMissouriJudicialand
LegalExpenses:
$245,460,000
2010NumberofArrestsinMissouri:
375,160
JudicialandLegalExpenseperArrest:
$654*
*Assumes2009Expense=2010Expense
Evaluation.Inthearticle,theauthors
assignedanaveragejudicialandlegalcostfor
thetypicalcaseacrossallcategoriesof
crimesaccordingtothenumberofarrests.
MissouriWonkgatheredinformationonthe
numberofarrestsforSt.LouisCity,theSt.
Louismetropolitanarea,andMissouri.
Speci>icarrestdatawasnotavailableforthe
NorthSidearea;asaresult,MissouriWonk
estimatedthenumberofarrestsintheNorthSideareaaccordingtothepercentage
ofcrimeinSt.LouisCityattributabletothe
NorthSideneighborhoods,asimilarestimate
procedurefordeterminingcorrectionscosts
attributabletotheNorthSideareaused
earlierinthisanalysis,exceptthescopeof
theestimatewaslimitedtojust2010.Again,
thepercentagewasadjustedtoaccountfor
thepopulationdifferencebetweenthe
NorthSideareaandthetotalpopulationof
NorthSideneighborhoods.Thisresultsinthe
numberofarrestscontainedinTable7for
eachgeographicarea.Table8providesthe
totalstatejudicialandlegalcostsforall
arrestsaswellasthepercapitajudicialandlegalcostspergeographicarea.Theper
capitajudicialandlegalcostsarepresented
inGraph2aswell.
Area
Numberof
Arrests
TotalState
JudicialandLegalCosts
Population
StateJudicialand
LegalCostsperCapita
NorthSide 2,407 $1,574,178 14,821 $106
STLCity 30,306 $19,820,124 319,156 $62
STLMetro 157,354 $102,909,516 2,000,231 $51
Missouri 375,160 $245,354,640 5,996,231 $41
Table8:TotalandPerCapitaJudicialandLegalCosts
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Graph2:JudicialandLegalSpendingPerCapita
Summary
TheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDistrictsthatencompasstheNorthSidearea,Districts4and5,
haveexperiencedsigni>icantlygreatercrimeratesoneverymajorcrimeindicatorthaneither
theCityofSt.LouisorthestateofMissourioverthepastfourdecades.Theareaespecially
suffersfromahighrateofpersoncrimes;between2001and2010,thetotalpersoncrimerate
was63%higherthanthecitysrateand8XgreaterthanMissourisrate.Allofthiscrime
translatesintohigherstateprisonspendingattributabletotheNorthSideareaofthecity.While
theareaaccountsforlessthan0.25%ofthestatespopulation,itisresponsibleformorethan
1%ofthestatesprisonspending.Theamountofprisonspendingattributabletotheareais
nearlytwiceasmuchonapercapitabasisasSt.LouisCityandnearly5XtheamountoftheSt.
Louismetropolitanarea.CrimeintheNorthSideareaalsoresultsinsigni>icantlymoreper
capitastatejudicialspendingthantheotherareasofcomparison.
$0#
$20#
$40#
$60#
$80#
$100#
$120#
NorthSide# STL#City# STL#Metro# Missouri#
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
AbouttheData
MissouriWonkreliedonseveraldocumentstocompilethecrimedata.Theninepolicedistricts
havemaintainedtheirborders,forthemostpart,since1961.Therewasasmallchangein2003
inwhichthesouthernboundaryofdistricts4and9andconsequentlythenorthernboundaryof
district3wasmovedfromChouteautoI-44andfollowingI-55tothePoplarStreetBridge8.
Togatherthehistoricaldata,MissouriWonkvisitedtheSt.LouisCountyLibraryHeadquarters
wheretheirspecialcollectionsdivisionmaintainsmicro>icheoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPolice
Reportsdatingbacktothemid-1800s.However,sincetheboundarieschangedsigni>icantlyin
1961,MissouriWonkonlyuseddataafterthatyear,speci>icallyafter1970,toprovideafair
comparison.Foreachreportavailable,MissouriWonkcopiedapageinthereport,whichlists
summarycrimeinformationfortheninepolicedistricts.Thisinformationwasavailableforyears1970to1988.Year1989informationwasobtainedviae-mailfromtheSt.Louis
MetropolitanPoliceDepartmentLibrary.Unfortunatelyonlypersoncrimeandpropertycrime
totalsbydistrictwereavailableforyears1985-1989;asaresult,thereisagapintimeinthe
individualcrimechartswhere1985-1989dataismissing.MissouriWonkinquiredtheSt.Louis
MetropolitanPoliceDepartmentaboutthisissueandthedepartmentexplainedthatmore
speci>icdatawasunavailable.
The1990-1993datawasalsoobtainedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment,but
wassummarizedandavailableinmoredetail;itwasbrokendownbyneighborhoodaswellas
bypolicedistrict.The1994-2010datawasavailabledowntotheindividualcrimeleveland
evenincludedwhatdistrict,neighborhood,andstreetlocationofwherethecrimewas
committed.However,summaryinformationwasnotavailablebydistrictforyears1994-2008;
asaresult,MissouriWonktabulatedthecrimesfordistricts4and5sothattheseyearscouldbe
incorporatedintothetrendgraphs.Summaryinformationwasavailableforthewholecitypera
PDFdocumentprovidedbytheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentforyears1994-2008.
SummaryinformationbydistrictandcitywasavailableviaaPDFdocumentforyears
2009-2010.
Toestimatethepopulationofdistricts4and5(combined)foreachdecade,MissouriWonkusedtheNeighborhoodChangeDatabasebyincorporatingthecensustractsthatencompassthearea.
Thecensustractsuseddonotexactlymatchtheboundariesofthepolicedistrictsbutrather
theyincorporateallofthecensustractsthatarecompletelywithinthedistrictsaswellasthe
districtswheremostofthelandareaiswithintheboundaries.Itisintendedtoprovidearough
approximationofthepopulationofthearea,notanexactcount.Thecensustractsinclude:
1097,1105,1104,1114,1115,1257,1267,1266,1201,1202,1203,1232,1234,1235,1221,
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
1222,1224,1212,and1213fromthe2000census9andcensustracts1097,1105,1104,1115,
1212,1202,1267,1266,1275,1257,1256,1255,1275,1274,and1232fromthe2010
AmericanCommunitySurvey.
BelowisamapoftheninepolicedistrictsoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.10
Figure1:St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDistricts
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Data,Sources,andArea
Theareaoffocusintheanalysisrelatingtocorrectionsandjudicialandlegalspendingisthe
geographicregionencompassedbycensustractscensustracts1115,1202,1212,1257,1266,
1271,and1275ofthe2010census.TheareaisshowninFigure2andincontextofSt.Louis
CityinFigure3.
Figure2:NorthSideArea2010CensusTracts
Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftware,ACS2006-2010Interface.
Note:NumbersabovedenotecensustractnumbersusedbyUnitedStatesBureauofthe
Census.
1202
1266
1257
1271
1275
1212
1115
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
Figure3:NorthSideAreainContextofSt.LouisCity
Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftware,ACS2006-2010Interface.
Note:TheareashownhighlightedinredstripesdesignatestheNorthSide
Area.
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
1AlthoughSt.Louisdoesappearatornearthetopofthelist,thismaybearesultofthehow
citiesreportcrimes.Larceniescanbereportedindifferentwayswiththenumberreportedbasedonthetheftofpropertyexceedingsometypeofthreshold($50,$1,000,etc.).Estimationmethodsusedbypolicetojudgeofthevalueofpropertystolencanalsobeafactorinhowcitiestrackandreportcrimes.2Formoreinformationonexactlyhowtheinformationwasgathered,pleaserefertotheAbouttheDatasectionofthisanalysis.3AcurrentmapoftheninepolicedistrictsoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentisincludedintheAbouttheDatasectionofthisanalysis.4WhilethesedistrictscertainlyencompassmuchmoreoftheSt.LouispopulationthantheNorthSidearea,itistheonlyavailableinformationforanalyzingaspeci>icareaoftheCityfordatapriorto1990.5
PleaserefertotheAbouttheDatasectiontolearnmoreabouthowMissouriWonkestimatedthepopulationofdistrictsfourand>iveforeachdecade.6AsnotedintheAbouttheDatasection,thereisagapoftime,1985-1989,whereinformationatthedistrictlevelisunavailable,hencethegapintheDistrict4and5lineonthegraph.7TheSt.LouismetropolitanareaincludesFranklinCounty,JeffersonCounty,St.CharlesCounty,St.LouisCounty,andSt.LouisCity.8Thisquotewaspulledfrome-mailbetweenMissouriWonkandarepresentativeoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.9Alsousedtoestimatepopulationfor1970,1980,and1990.10ObtainedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentwebsite,http://www.slmpd.org/your_info.html.
Notes
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NORTHSIDE CRIME
References
Disastercenter.com.MissouriCrimeRates1960-2011.Retrievedfromtheworldwidewebon
November27,2012fromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm .
Eddy,Joseph(MissouriDepartmentofCorrectionsBudgetDirector).Testimonybeforethe
MissouriGeneralAssemblyJointCommitteeonSentencingandCorrections.Obtained
fromtheworldwidewebonNovember27,2012fromhttp://
www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/.
McCollister,KathrynE.,MichaelT.French,andHaiFang.TheCostofCrimetoSociety:New
Crime-Speci>icEstimatesforPolicyandProgramEstimation.DrugAlcoholDepend.
2010April1;108(1-2):98-109.
MissouriDepartmentofCorrections.2010AnnualReport.2010.
MissouriDepartmentofCorrections.APro>ileoftheInstitutionalandSupervisedOffender
PopulationonJune302010.2010.
MissouriDepartmentofCorrections.APro>ileoftheInstitutionalandSupervisedOffender
PopulationonJune302011.2011.
MissouriSenateBill320.FiscalNote,SenateSubstitute-TrulyAgreedToandFinallyPassed.
96thGeneralAssembly,FirstRegularSession.2011.
MissouriStateHighwayPatrol.CrimeinMissouri2010.
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.AnnualReports1970-1989.
St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.CrimeStatistics.1990-2010.
U.SBureauoftheCensus.1970,1980,1990,and2000Censusinformationgatheredusingthe NeighborhoodChangeDatabase.1970-2000informationgatheredfromGeolytics,Inc.
U.S.BureauoftheCensus.1990CensusofPopulationandHousing.U.SDepartmentof
Commerce:EconomicsandStatisticsAdministration.1993.
http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htmhttp://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htmhttp://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/ -
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ABOUT MISSOURI WONK
Missouri Wonk is a firm founded by Brian Schmidt that performs policy analysis services for businesses,
trade associations non-profits, campaigns, and government entities.
ABOUT BRIAN SCHMIDT
Brian Schmidt served as the Executive Director of the Missouri General Assemblys Joint Committee
on Tax Policy from 2005 through 2011. He received a Bachelor of Political Science degree at Truman
State University and a Master of Public Affairs- Public Policy degree at the University of Missouri-Columbia.
NORTHSIDE CRIME
U. S.BureauoftheCensus.AmericanCommunitySurvey.Dataanalyzedthroughtheuseof
Geolytics,Inc.software:ACS2006-2010Interface.DecennialCensus2010.
U.S.BureauofJusticeStatistics.Table3.Percentdistributionofexpenditureforthejustice
systembytypeofgovernment,>iscalyear2009(preliminary).2012.
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