northwest power and conservation council science policy exchange september 12, 2007
DESCRIPTION
Direct Survival of Migrating Salmonid Smolts in the Snake and Lower Columbia Rivers: Update with 2007 Results. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Science Policy Exchange September 12, 2007 Steve Smith [email protected] John Williams [email protected] - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Direct Survival of Migrating Salmonid Smolts in the Snake and
Lower Columbia Rivers: Update with 2007 Results
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilScience Policy Exchange September 12, 2007Steve Smith [email protected] Williams [email protected] Muir [email protected]
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Outline• Juvenile survival and travel time
through the hydropower system
– Update with preliminary 2007 results
• Annual summer “survival memo” released 31 August 2007
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Outline• SARs for Snake River spring-
summer Chinook• Difference in SARs between PIT-
tagged and untagged fish• Relationship between direct
juvenile survival and SARs
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Survival and Travel Time for PIT-tagged Spring Migrants
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0
50
100
150
200
Apr 9
Apr 16
Apr 23
Apr 30
May 7
May 14
May 21
May 28
1997
Weekly Mean Flow (kcfs)Lower Granite Dam
2006
2004 2007
Date at Lower Granite Dam
Mea
n F
low
(k
cfs)
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0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr 9
Apr 16
Apr 23
Apr 30
May 7
May 14
May 21
May 28
1997
2001
Mean Percentage Spilled LGR, LGS, LMN
20062007
2004
Date
Per
cen
tag
e S
pil
l
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6
8
10
12
14
16
Apr 9
Apr 16
Apr 23
Apr 30
May 7
May 14
May 21
May 28
2001
Weekly Mean Temperature Little Goose Dam
2006
20072004
Date
Per
cen
tag
e S
pil
l
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Bonnevill
e
The D
alle
s
John D
ay
Hells Canyon
OxbowBrownlee
Priest Rapids
Wanapum
Rock Island
Rocky Reach
Wells
Chief Joseph
Grand Coulee
McN
ary
Ice H
arb
or
Litt
le G
oose
Low
er
Gra
nit
e
Low
er
Monum
enta
l
Juvenile detectors
Snake R. trap
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Hatchery stream type Chinook (1993-2007)
0 200 400 600 800
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
KooskiaImnaha R. weir
Rapid RiverMcCallPahsimeroiSawtooth
Dworshak
R2=0.948, p<0.001
Distance to Lower Granite Dam (km)
Surv
ival
Rele
ase
to L
GR
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Stream type ChinookSnake River Basin Hatcheries
Mean of index groups
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
X = 61.8%65.2%
Sur
viva
lRel
ease
to
LGR
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Many fish are transported
Preliminary COMPASS estimates for 2007:
• 46% of non-tagged stream type Chinook
• 67% of non-tagged steelhead
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Stream-type Chinook median travel timeLower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)
0
10
20
30
40
50
12 Apr 2 May 22 May 11 Jun
2006
2001
Date leaving Lower Granite Dam
Tra
vel
tim
e (d
ays)
2007
2004
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Steelhead median travel timeLower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)
0
10
20
30
40
50
12 Apr 2 May 22 May 11 Jun
2006
2001
2007
Date leaving Lower Granite Dam
Tra
vel
tim
e (d
ays)
2004
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1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
X = 87.7%
85.5% (93.2%)
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
X = 73.1%
84.8% (92.1%)
Est
imat
ed s
urv
ival
Lower Monumental to McNary
SteelheadStream type Chinook
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93.0
96.0
BON TDA
ICE
93.795.692.282.0 (90.6) 94.387.7
93.292.490.385.181.4 (90.0) 85.5MCNJDA LMO LGRLGO SRTBON
JDAMCN
LMO LGOLGR
SRT
Stream-typeChinook salmon reach survival
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90.1
95.4
BON TDA
ICE
88.691.394.761.4 (78.4) 100.084.8
94.290.588.774.672.4 (84.9) 73.1MCNJDA LMO LGRLGO SRTBON
JDAMCN
LMO LGOLGR
SRT
Steelhead reach survival
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1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
X = 48.6%
56.0%
61.2%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
X = 34.1%
39.2%41.8%
??Est
imat
ed s
urv
ival
Snake River Trap to Bonneville
SteelheadStream type Chinook
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Smolt-to-Adult Return (SAR) for Spring Migrants
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
1
2
3
4PIT-taggedunmarked
Snake River wild Chinook salmon (LGR to LGR + catch)
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20000
1
2
3
4
5
PIT-tagged wildunmarked wild
PIT-tagged hatchery
Snake River steelhead
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Dworshak Hatchery Chinook salmon *
PIT
unmarked
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Rapid River Hatchery Chinook salmon *
PITunmarked
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
McCall Hatchery Chinook salmon*
* Includes adjustment for harvest upstream of LGR
PITunmarked
Year of outmigration
Sm
olt-
to-a
dult
retu
rn -
% (
SA
R)
Hatchery to hatchery SARs - no adjustment for smolt survival toLGR or adult harvest downstream of LGR- Data after 2005 CSS report
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1970 1980 1990 20000
1
2
3
4
5
6
2-oceanonly
Raymond (1988)
afterPetrosky et al.(2001)
Williams et al. (2005)(updated)
Estimated Snake River wild spring-summerchinook salmon returns (escapement to upperSnake River dam + catch)
CSS PIT
Outmigration year
Sm
olt-
to-a
du
lt re
turn
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Stream type Chinookbased on PIT tags
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20060.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
* Incomplete adult returns
In-river survial
SAR
Hyd
ropow
er
syst
em
surv
ival
SAR
(%)
Adult returnsincomplete
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0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
R2 = 0.281 P = 0.076
Yearling Chinook
Hydropower system survival
SAR
(%
)
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Steelheadbased on PIT tags
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20070.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Adult returnsincomplete
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
SARIn-river survival
Migration year
Hyd
ropow
er
syst
em
surv
ival
SAR
(%)
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Steelhead
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
R2 = 0.024 P = 0.65
Hydropower system survival
SAR
(%
)
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Questions