northwestern mexico hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects
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Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought predictability: influences and effects. Francisco Munoz Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Northwestern Mexico Hydrological drought
predictability: influences and effects Francisco Munoz
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
for presentation at
Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexicoand the Southwest United States
10-11 April 2008
CICESE, Ensenada México
Outline
• Motivation
• Current Drought Assessment
• Hydrological Forecast System– Coverage– VIC
• Preliminary Drought Assessment
• Further work
Motivation
• Effects of drought are among the most costly from different perspectives
• Use of hydrological and agricultural drought forecasts
• UW West-wide hydrologic forecast system – moving toward integral drought analysis over Mexico and the U.S.
28
28
19
15
15
13
12 1212
1211
10
9
88
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
4
4
2
11
1
1
16
Drought Events in the 20th Century
from Arteaga Ramirez and Vazquez Peña, 1998
Drought Assessment
• Available Indices– Palmer Drought Index
– Standardized Precipitation Index
– Surface Water Supply Index
• Proposed Method– Percentiles relative to the
climatology (1960-1999)
– Use of Hydrological Models to create continuous spatiotemporal patterns of drought-linked variables
– Allow monitoring and forecastNorth American Drought Monitor, 2008
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/
VIC Model
Extended UW Forecast Approach Schematic
SMN station obs.
NDASEDASNARR
local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs
soil moisture
VIC Hydrologic model spin up
streamflow, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff
25th Day, Month 01-2 years back
index stn. real-time
met. forcings
for spin-up gap
Hydrologic forecast simulation
Month 12
INITIAL STATE
ObservedSWE
Assimilation
Ensemble forecastsESP tracesNCEP CFS ensemble
Dam’s
Initial
State
Streamflow, Water Storage, Water Releases
Operation&
Restrictions
ReservoirForecast
SIMOP
Extended UW Forecast Approach Schematic
SMN station obs.
NDASEDASNARR
local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs
soil moisture
VIC Hydrologic model spin up
streamflow, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff
25th Day, Month 01-2 years back
index stn. real-time
met. forcings
for spin-up gap
Hydrologic forecast simulation
Month 12
INITIAL STATE
INITIAL STATE
ObservedSWE
Assimilation
Ensemble forecastsESP tracesNCEP CFS ensemble
Dam’s
Initial
State
Dam’s
Initial
State
Streamflow, Water Storage, Water Releases
Operation&
Restrictions
ReservoirForecast
SIMOP
Soil Moisture and Streamflow percentile (20%)
UW-Westwide hydrologic forecast system (UW-HFS)
ICsSpin-up Forecast
observed
recentmet data to generate
“perfect” ICs
ensemble of historical met datato generate ensemble
forecast
hydrologicstate
Applications: climate forecast
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
Streamflow Forecast
• More than 200 stations over the US
• Currently 23 Points over Mexico– 13 points over the
NAM region (9 in the Yaqui basin)
1617181920212223
1 2
11
11
3
4
6
78
10
11
15
13
14
12
9
5
1617181920212223
1 2
11
11
3
4
6
78
10
11
15
13
14
12
9
5
Angostura
Oviachi
Paso Nacori
Yaqui River Basin
Gulf of California
Aros- /Papigochi River
Moctezuma River
Bavispe River
Yaqui River
Yaqui Valley
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
j a n f e b m a r a p r m a y j u n j u l a u g s e p o c t n o v d e c
T i m e
Norm
alized
Stream
flow (m
m)
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
j a n f e b m a r a p r m a y j u n j u l a u g s e p o c t n o v d e c
T i m e
Norm.
Stream
flow (m
m/mont
h)
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
j a n f e b m a r a p r m a y j u n j u l a u g s e p o c t n o v d e c
T i m e ( m o n t h s )
Norma
lized S
treamfl
ow (m
m)
L N _ C E N _ C N _ C L N _ W E N _ W N _ W
A n g o s t u r a
P a s o N a c o r i
O v i a c h i c
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
j a n f e b m a r a p r m a y j u n j u l a u g s e p o c t n o v d e c
T i m e
Norm
alized
Stream
flow (m
m)
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
j a n f e b m a r a p r m a y j u n j u l a u g s e p o c t n o v d e c
T i m e
Norm.
Stream
flow (m
m/mont
h)
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
j a n f e b m a r a p r m a y j u n j u l a u g s e p o c t n o v d e c
T i m e ( m o n t h s )
Norma
lized S
treamfl
ow (m
m)
L N _ C E N _ C N _ C L N _ W E N _ W N _ W
A n g o s t u r a
P a s o N a c o r i
O v i a c h i c
Yaqui River Basin
June 2007
July 2007
Runoff Forecast
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
Angostura
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
Streamflow and Streamflow Anomaly
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
Streamflow Anomalies
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
An
no
mal
y (m
3s-1
)
-200.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
months
str
eam
flo
w (
m3s-1
)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
months
str
ea
mfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
months
stre
amfl
ow
(m
3s-1
)
Paso Nacori Boquilla, BC Perlas, Chis
Probability of Drought Occurrence
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug-0
5
Sep-0
5
Oct-0
5
Nov-0
5
Dec-0
5
Jan-
06
Feb-0
6
Mar
-06
Apr-0
6
May
-06
Jun-
06
months
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f D
rou
gh
t O
ccu
ren
ce
PSNCO_05
PSNCO_07
ANGST_05
ANGST_07
BOQUI_05
BOQUI_07
PERLA_05
PERLA_07
Summary
• Spatial Distribution of Runoff percentiles emulates the NADM drought Index (PDI)– UW-HFS presents higher resolution– Wider distribution over southern BC and
northern BCS– Higher values over southeastern Mexico
• Important effect of initial conditions on the monsoon streamflow prediction
Further work
• Drought Monitoring and Forecast System
• Implementation of the SIMOP (Reservoir Model) in the Yaqui basin
• Integration of UW surface water monitor (national) with UW-HFS
• Multi-model development over Mexico– NOAH, SAC, possibly others
Extended UW Forecast Approach Schematic
SMN station obs.
NDASEDASNARR
local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs
soil moisture
VIC Hydrologic model spin up
streamflow, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff
25th Day, Month 01-2 years back
index stn. real-time
met. forcings
for spin-up gap
Hydrologic forecast simulation
Month 12
INITIAL STATE
ObservedSWE
Assimilation
Ensemble forecastsESP tracesNCEP CFS ensemble
Dam’s
Initial
State
Streamflow, Water Storage, Water Releases
Operation&
Restrictions
ReservoirForecast
SIMOP
Extended UW Forecast Approach Schematic
SMN station obs.
NDASEDASNARR
local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs
soil moisture
VIC Hydrologic model spin up
streamflow, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff
25th Day, Month 01-2 years back
index stn. real-time
met. forcings
for spin-up gap
Hydrologic forecast simulation
Month 12
INITIAL STATE
INITIAL STATE
ObservedSWE
Assimilation
Ensemble forecastsESP tracesNCEP CFS ensemble
Dam’s
Initial
State
Dam’s
Initial
State
Streamflow, Water Storage, Water Releases
Operation&
Restrictions
ReservoirForecast
SIMOP
Additional Features
SIMulador Operacional (SIMOP) Reservoir Operational Model for the Yaqui basin
Current Mexican Basins
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1617181920212223
Station Station Drainage AreaNumber Name km2
1 Boquilla 19302 Imuris 25033 Casas Grandes 52714 Villalba 94055 Oviachi 708456 Sardinas 49117 Ixpalino 61668 Cazadero 51359 Padilla 384310 Las Gaviotas 932911 Colima 974412 Temazcalzingo 485113 Pozarica 160014 Mariscala 660815 Las Perlas 922416 Novillo 5790817 Cubil 4562418 Paso Nacori 2167519 Guadalupe 1527020 Huapaca 1059821 Abraham Gonzalez 181322 Angostura 1839523 La Junta 8713
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1617181920212223
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1
23
54
6
78
11
10
9
1514
1312
1617181920212223
Station Station Drainage AreaNumber Name km2
1 Boquilla 19302 Imuris 25033 Casas Grandes 52714 Villalba 94055 Oviachi 708456 Sardinas 49117 Ixpalino 61668 Cazadero 51359 Padilla 384310 Las Gaviotas 932911 Colima 974412 Temazcalzingo 485113 Pozarica 160014 Mariscala 660815 Las Perlas 922416 Novillo 5790817 Cubil 4562418 Paso Nacori 2167519 Guadalupe 1527020 Huapaca 1059821 Abraham Gonzalez 181322 Angostura 1839523 La Junta 8713