Norton Rose Election Briefing seminar: Immigration

and population

Gary Johns17 August 2010

The political problem

• Big city commuters uptight at lengthening supply lines/journey to work/queues, need someone to blame

• Last in the door (migrants and the most visible, boat people)

• State governments fail to invest in traffic management• Federal government runs an historically high net migration

program

How to settle the troops, maintain a migration program and understand the nature of the population challenge, knowing

that you are not able to really do much!

The migration and population problems

• Economy – migrant contribution v. adjustment costs‘Skilled and steady wins the race’

• Political stability – challenges to liberal democracy‘Assimilation in the age of identity’

• Defence – cost per head in an Asian century‘Be vigilant’

• Environment/amenity – what is sustainability?‘Thomas Malthus or Bill Gates?’

Migration’s contribution to population growth

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.(a) revised NOM method, (b) preliminary data.

NOM accounted for 70% of population growth in Victoria, SA and WA .

Projected population 2006–2101

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

The age structure and size of Australia’s future population depends on:

• fertility• NOM• life expectancy.

Dick Smith panics! But we are going to grow regardless

Labor has not specified a numberCoalition has called for NOM 170 000

Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and NOM.Series A and Series C are based on high and low assumptions for each variable respectively.

Population flows: Immigration aspects 2008–09

Boat people only a couple of thousand, a small component of a small component of the immigration program.

Number arriving less the number departing.

Driven by growth in the Temporary Business (Long Stay) component, including full fee ‑paying international students, higher levels of skilled temporary long term migration ‑and New Zealand citizens.

[DIAC figure = 336 130]

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

Dominance of long term arrivals over ‑permanent settlers for India and the People’s Republic of China, due mainly to the large numbers of international students coming from these countries.

Not the major part of net overseas migration.

Components of net overseas migration (NOM) 1984–2009

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20080%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

PermanentLong-term

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

Major reorientation in policy.

Migration Program outcomes by stream

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

During the 2009–10 budget announcements, the government announced its intention to increasethe English language threshold for General Skilled Migration applicants nominating a trade occupation.

Keating Howard Rudd

Number of students present in Australia by major citizenship

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

India and China are the big sources of growth.

Annual GDP growth and rate of NOM, 1960 to 2008

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

Australia had falling GDP growth but a rising net migrant intake, not a sensible combination. Cuts in skilled migration did not bite was because in 2008–09 arrivals of permanent migrants represented less than a fifth of all arrivals, making cuts to permanent migration of little consequence.

The main factor that drove the record high net migration intake in 2008–09 was the movements of temporary migrants, particularly international students and temporary skilled migrants.

Labour market status of migrants by stream and birthplace

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

Unemployment rates, participation rates and the likelihood of full time employment ‑ among skilled migrants are similar regardless of whether they came from a Mainly English speaking country or a Non English ‑speaking country.

On the other hand, family migrants from Non-English speaking countries are less likely to be in the workforce, more likely to be unemployed and less likely to be working full time than family migrants from ‑English speaking countries.

Labour market outcomes of children of migrants and others 2006

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

For Australia, the United States, New Zealand and Canada a recent study found the children of migrants have education and labour market outcomes that are as good as the children of native born parents.‑

Net fiscal benefit of 2008–09 —original and budget estimates

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

Access Economics Migrant Fiscal Impact Model has demonstrated that migrants make a strong contribution to the Australian Government Budget. Treasury has tested Access under more recent, less favourable conditions.

Scenario 1: Original estimates of unemployment, revenue and expenditure.Scenario 2: Treasury’s revised estimates of revenue and expenditure.Scenario 3: Treasury’s revised estimates of revenue, expenditure and unemployment.

Per capita growth is the key …

Proportion of overseas born, selected countries‑

Source: Population flows Immigration aspects 2008–2009 edition, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.

Assimilation or identity?