norwegian school of management climate post cop 15 in a limits to growth perspective climate post...
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NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTNORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
Climate post COP 15in a
Limits to Growthperspective
Climate post COP 15in a
Limits to Growthperspective
Jorgen RandersProfessor
Center for Climate StrategyNorwegian School of Management BI
The 2010 Peder Sather SymposiumBrower Center, Berkeley
April 15, 2010
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
What did The Limits to Growth study say in 1972?
What has happened since?
What is the current situation (in LTG perspective)?
What should be done – immediately?
What should be done in the longer run?
Better to try than to give up
Overview
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12 scenarios for the 21st century
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
1
1
11
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
34
4
4
4
5
5
55
Year
5: Nonrenewable resources
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
2: Food output
1: Population
Limits Scenario 1: Business as usual
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
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The world is small
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Decision making takes time
COP 15 meeting in December 2009
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Collapse does occur
Source: GRID Arendal, Planet in Peril, 2004
Canadian catch of cod 1850
– 2003
(tons per year)
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LTG scenarios vs 30 years of data
Source: Graham Turner, WP 2008-09, CSIRO, Sydney , June 2008
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
LTG scenarios vs 30 years of data
Source: Graham Turner, WP 2008-09, CSIRO, Sydney , June 2008
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
The human ecological footprint 1961 – 03
PLANET EARTH
CROPLAND
FOREST
GRAZING LAND
FISHING GROUNDS
ENERGY
BUILT- UP LAND
NUCLEAR ENERGY
Source: Living Planet Report, WWF, 2006
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Human CO2 emissions and its effect400
300
200
100
0
Concentration in ppm
Emissions in GtCo2/yr)
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: Jim Hansen, Climate threat to the Planet, Oslo 2009
Temperature is going up
Global average ocean and land
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTNORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: www.theoildrum.com/tag/update
Approaching peak oil?
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Decision making takes time
COP 15 meeting in December 2009
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTNORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
Human CO2 emissions – necessary cut
2050 2100
SUSTAINABLE ?
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-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fin
al E
ne
rgy
Re
qu
ire
me
nt
(EJ
)
avoided energy use
renewables
conventional fossil fuel use
CCS
nuclear gas
renewable H2
Increased energy efficiency (yellow)
More renewable energy (blue+green)
Source: Climate Solutions, WWF International, 2007
2 % per year growth in energy use
WWF solution in 2007 (+forest protection)
Carbon capture and storage (brown)
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Faster decision-making?
President Hu speaking in the great halll 2009
What to do? An end to overshoot through managed decline
Source: Mathis Wackernagel, 2010
BAU
Towards sustainability
Overshoot
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: World Bank, Commodities at the Crossroads, 2009
Technology is advancing
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0
5
10
15
1950 2000 2050 2100
China
Industrial world
Rest of world
2025: China starts cutting 5 %/yr
2010: Industrial world starts cutting 5 %/yr
2035: Rest of world starts cutting 5 %/yr
Per
cap
ita e
mis
sion
s (
tCO
2 pe
r pe
rson
-yr)
Proposed burden sharing (tCO2/person-yr)
Source: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
GtC
O2
per
yea
r
China
Industrial worldRest of world
Total emissions (GtCO2/yr - per region)
Source: Bjart Holtsmark, Statistics Norway.
NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Source: Clark et al, Journal of Economic Literature 2008, 46:1
Incomes grow, but not happiness
Data for the United States 1973 - 2004
