NOVA CHIEFS

Pandemic Summery

NVRC

April 11,2006

Preparing for a pandemic requires the leveraging of all instruments of national power, and coordinated

action by all segments of government and society.

In the last 300 years, the world has experienced 10 influenza pandemics,

…three in the last century.

* Source: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/keyfacts.htm

† Source: Homeland Security Council, National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza, November 2005

Pandemics Do Happen!

H1

H1H3

H2

H7*

H5*

H9*

1918Spanish

Influenza H1N1

1957Asian

Influenza H2N2

1968Hong Kong

Influenza H3N2

1980

1997

1915

*Avian Flu

2003 2004

1977

1996

2002

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

1998

19992003

The Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919

25-30 percent of the world’s population fell ill

500,000 deaths in the US

Nations With Confirmed Cases H5N1 Avian Influenza (March 21, 2006)

Migratory Bird Flyways

H5N1 in birds… coming soon to a flock near you

We do not know whether the H5N1 influenza virus in birds will be the virus that sets off a pandemic. It is still primarily a disease among animals not people. But the signs are worrisome, and we must be prepared.

Bruce Gellin, M.D.DirectorNational Vaccine Program OfficeUS Department of Health and Human Services

Phases of a Pandemic: Where we are now

So far, there is no sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1

influenza…..but we must prepare.

Will a novel influenza virus causing a pandemic present next month or 10 years from now?

Iowa State University 1918

…a newly emerging influenza virus can wreak catastrophic damage worldwide in a matter of months.

Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.Director, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

….an infection carried by one person can be transmitted to tens or hundreds of others. For this reason, individual action is perhaps the most important element of pandemic preparedness and response.

Issues for the localities

• Coordination• Working closely with:

– Local DOH

– Business

– Schools

– State and other localities

– Employees and families

– Public safety

– Infrastructure / utilities

– Legal Isolation Quarantine appeals

Issues for the localities

• Human Resources– Decreased staffing

• Staying home to care for family

• Operating with 30% loss in workforce

• Changes in minimum staffing to keep operational– ie medic unit with one EMT-I and one EMT

• Utilizing those who returned to work, post illness

• Vaccination /Antiviral distribution

• Employees and families

Fairfax DOH First Responders Working Group

• Part of the Fairfax County Health Department Pandemic planning group.

Mission:

• Develop and implement a comprehensive plan of action involving all public safety agencies in an effort to operate effectively and cooperatively with other stakeholders as it relates Pandemic Flu both locally and regionally.

First Responders Working Group

• Tasks identified– Education internal & external

• IB, handouts on front line equipment

• Cable, AM advisory radio

– Staffing– Behavioral Health– Family Issues/ Sick leave

First Responders Working Group

• Tasks identified:– Post exposure – Hospitals /Reroute/ Surge capacity

• Fever centers • Non-transport criteria or transport to alternative sites

– Risk Management workers comp.– Isolation / quarantine– Cache of PPE in stock and vendor availability

• 6-8 week supply

NCR October 2006 PanFlu FE

• Participants:– DPH

– Hospitals

– Emergency Mgt.

– Transportation

– Public Safety Fire & EMS

– State Police, Local Law Enforcement

– National Guard

– Federal Partners

Estimates & Assumptions

• Duration of Pandemic 1-1.5 years

• Duration of epidemic in community 8 weeks, will come in waves

• Illness rate 25 to 30 %

• 50% will seek medical care

• Average hospital stay 7-10 days.

Work with other credible sources.

Conflicts and disagreements among organizations and credible

spokespersons create confusion and breed distrust.

Coordinate your information and communications efforts with those of

other legitimate parties.