November, 2010 Post-Election Analysis

David Latterman Fall Line Analytics

November, 4 2010

so very tired…

Some basic stats about the San Francisco electorate…

San Francisco PVI

San Francisco Registration (2004-2010)

6%

9%

56%

29%

SF District Turnout District vs. Frequent Voters

Back to 2008

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

7 8 4 2 1 9 3 5 11 6 10

Fre

que

nt V

ote

r Ind

ex

District

2010 Turnout (as of 11/3/10)

So far: 179,080

(39%)

(254K in 11/06)

Remaining ~80K

Expect ~ 260K or 58%

SF Candidate Results…

Unopposed in 2010

• Jeff Adachi – Public Defender • Carmen Chu – D4 (insert Ron Dudum joke here)

• Community College Board – Anita Grier –  John Rizzo –  Lawrence Wong

State Lt. Governor

As of 11/3/2010

State Atty. General

As of 11/3/2010

Superior Court Judge

As of 11/3/2010

Assessor/Recorder

As of 11/3/2010

District 2

District 6

District 8

District 10

SF School Board

Oakland Mayor

SF Local Measure Results…

Prop AA Vehicle Registration Fee

Shall the San Francisco County Transportation Authority add $10 to the annual registration fee for vehicles registered in San Francisco to fund transportation projects involving street repairs and reconstruction, pedestrian safety, and transit reliability improvements?

Milk Y SFBG Y DCCC Y Alice Y Wallenberg Y SPUR Y Plan C N Chronicle Y SF Chamber NP

Prop A Earthquake Retrofit Bond

To provide deferred loans and grants to pay the costs for seismic retrofits of certain multi-story wood-frame buildings with vulnerable soft-story construction at significant risk of substantial damage and collapse during a major earthquake and funded by a qualified governmental housing finance agency for permanent or long-term affordability, or single room occupancy buildings owned by private parties, and pay related costs, shall the City issue up to $46,150,000 of general obligation bonded indebtedness, subject to citizen oversight and regular audits?

Milk Y

SFBG Y

DCCC Y

Alice Y

Wallenberg Y

SPUR Y

Plan C Y

Chronicle Y SF Chamber Y

Prop B City Retirement and Health Plans

Shall the City increase employee contributions to the Retirement System for retirement benefits; decrease employer contributions to the Health Service System for health benefits for employees, retirees and their dependents; and change rules for arbitration proceedings about City collective bargaining agreements?

Milk N SFBG N DCCC N Alice N Wallenberg N SPUR Y Plan C Y Chronicle N SF Chamber NP

Prop C Question Time

Shall the Charter be amended to require the Mayor to appear in person at one regularly scheduled meeting of the Board of Supervisors each month to engage in formal policy discussions with the Board?

Milk Y SFBG Y DCCC Y Alice N Wallenberg N SPUR N Plan C N Chronicle N SF Chamber N

Prop D Non-Citizen Voting in School Board Elections

Shall the City allow non-citizen residents of San Francisco who are 18 years of age or older and have children living in the San Francisco Unified School District to vote for members of the Board of Education?

Milk Y SFBG Y DCCC Y Alice NP Wallenberg NP SPUR NP Plan C N Chronicle N SF Chamber N

Prop E Election Day Voter Registration

Shall the Charter be amended to establish Election Day voter registration specifically for municipal elections?

Milk Y SFBG Y DCCC Y Alice Y Wallenberg Y SPUR NP Plan C N Chronicle N SF Chamber N

Prop F Health Service Board Elections

Shall the number of Health Service Board elections be reduced to two elections every five years instead of four elections?

Milk N SFBG N DCCC N Alice NP Wallenberg NP SPUR Y Plan C Y Chronicle Y SF Chamber Y

Prop G Transit Operator Wages

Shall the City eliminate the formula for setting minimum MUNI operator wages and instead set MUNI operator wages through collective bargaining and binding arbitration; add rules for arbitration proceedings regarding MTA’s transit employees; and make other changes to terms of employment for MTA employees?

Milk N SFBG N DCCC NP Alice Y Wallenberg Y SPUR Y Plan C Y Chronicle Y SF Chamber Y

Prop H Local Elected Officials on Political Party Committees

Shall the City prohibit elected City officials from serving on San Francisco political party county central committees?

Milk N SFBG N DCCC N Alice N Wallenberg NP SPUR N Plan C Y Chronicle N SF Chamber Y

Prop I Saturday Voting

Shall the City open polling places on the Saturday before the November 2011 election if donors contribute enough money to pay for the costs?

Milk Y SFBG Y DCCC Y Alice Y Wallenberg Y SPUR Y Plan C Y Chronicle Y SF Chamber Y

Prop J/K Hotel Tax Clarification and Temporary Increase/

Hotel Tax Clarification and Definitions Shall the City increase the hotel tax rate from 14% to 16% for the next three years, confirm that anyone collecting rent from a hotel guest must also collect tax on room rental and related charges, and define “permanent resident” so that only an individual could qualify for the “permanent resident” exemption?

Shall the City keep the hotel tax rate at 14%, confirm that anyone collecting rent from a hotel guest must also collect tax on room rental and related charges, and define “permanent resident” so that only an individual could qualify for the “permanent resident” exemption?

J K Milk Y N SFBG Y N DCCC Y N Alice N Y Wallenberg NP N SPUR N NP Plan C N Y Chronicle N N SF Chamber N Y

Prop L/M Sitting or Lying on Sidewalks/

Community Policing and Foot Patrols Shall the City amend its Police Code to prohibit sitting or lying on a public sidewalk in San Francisco between 7 a.m. and 11 p.m., with certain exceptions?

Shall the City require the Police Commission to adopt a written community policing policy, require the Chief of Police to establish a comprehensive Foot Beat Patrol Program, and not amend its Police Code to prohibit sitting or lying on sidewalks?

L M Milk N Y SFBG N Y DCCC N Y Alice N N Wallenberg NP N SPUR NP N Plan C Y N Chronicle Y N SF Chamber Y N

Prop N Real Property Transfer Tax

Shall the City increase its real property transfer tax rate to 2.0% for sales and long-term leases of real property valued at $5 million to $10 million and to 2.5% for sales and long-term leases of real property valued at $10 million or more?

Milk Y SFBG Y DCCC Y Alice Y Wallenberg Y SPUR N Plan C N Chronicle N SF Chamber N

Endorsement Scorecard

Rate Percentage

Milk 7/15 47%

SFBG 7/15 47%

DCCC 7/14 50%

Alice 8/13 62%

Wallenberg 7/10 70%

SPUR 7/11 64%

Plan C 8/15 53%

Chronicle 12/15 80%

SF Chamber 8/13 62%

California Measure Results…

 Prop Title Yes No

19 Marijuana Legalization 46.1% 53.9%

20 Redistricting of Congressional Districts 61.2% 38.8%

21 State Park Funding. Vehicle License Surcharge 41.8% 58.2%

22 Prohibit State From Taking Some Local Funds 61.0% 39.0%

23 Suspends Implementation of Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) 38.9% 61.1%

24 Repeals Business Tax Legislation 41.5% 58.5%

25 Budget passing by ½ (2/3 for taxes) 54.8% 45.2%

26 State and Local Fees are Really Taxes 52.9% 47.1%

27 Eliminates State Commission on Redistricting 40.5% 59.5%

So what happened?

• Some BoS races too close to call • BoS will probably stay around 7-4

prog/mod –  (perhaps 2 and 10 flip?)

• DCCC/LC influence lost ground • City went pretty fiscally/socially

conservative on ballot measures – Continues trend of moderate city, liberal

districts…therefore…

Implications for Mayor

• Old board or new board? • Old board goes left, new board a little

more likely for interim • Numbers aren’t adding up for Peskin,

Chiu in better position • Clear that city won’t vote for

progressive mayor – even if they force someone in, will he be voted out?