november 7, 2008 q3 2008 telus investor conference call

31
November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Upload: jeffery-kennedy

Post on 26-Dec-2015

222 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

November 7, 2008

Q3 2008 TELUSinvestor conference call

Page 2: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the likelihood of new wireless competitors beginning to offer services in 2009 following the AWS spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including the global credit crisis, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (potentially increased in 2009 and future years by the Company’s fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities and fund share repurchases); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post-acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and choice of suppliers, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of HSPA (high speed packet access) / LTE (long-term evolution) wireless technology, successful implementation of the network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products, services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents, including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov).

For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ 2007 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2008 quarterly Management’s discussion and analyses.

TELUS forward looking statements

Page 3: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Agenda

Wireless and wireline segment review Consolidated financial review Updates

Wireless technology evolution 2008 guidance Dividend increase Operating Efficiency Programs Credit position

3

Page 4: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer

Q3 2008 TELUSInvestor conference call

Page 5: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless Q3 highlights

Strong wireless subscriber results with low COA per gross add Record Q3 gross and net adds excl. analogue turndown

Postpaid basic service brand launch going well ARPU

Strong growth in data as smartphone adoption accelerates Continued decline in voice ARPU

Orderly iDEN to PCS migration for non-PTT users continues Current period EBITDA impacted by strong subscriber growth,

ARPU decrease and increased retention spending Next generation network sharing agreement with Bell

5

Record Q3 and YTD subscriber loading

Page 6: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless segment – Q3 2008 financial results

($M) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change

Revenue 1,105 1,202 8.7%

EBITDA (reported) 521 525 0.9%

EBITDA (as adj)1 523 525 0.4%

Capital expenditures 132 132 0.6%

Good revenue growth of 9% with EBITDA up only 1%primarily due to record subscriber loading

1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature (recovery) expense of $(0.3) million and $2.3 million in the third quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively

6

Page 7: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Prepaid 20%

73%

Wireless subscribers

Postpaid 80%

Net additions

Q3-07 Q3-081 6.0 million total

4.8M

1.2M

Wireless subscriber results

Prepaid

Postpaid177K

135K90%

Record Q3 and YTD subscriber loading

7

1 Excludes the impact from analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers

Page 8: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless Industry update

Source: TELUS estimates and company disclosure

8

(000’s) Q3-07 Q3-08 change

Gross adds (YTD) 3,850 4,130 7.3%

Net adds (YTD) 1,130 1,200 6.2%

Total Subscribers 19,690 21,490 9.1%

Canadian wireless industry generating robust growth

Page 9: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless ARPU

Data

Q3-08

$64.14

Voice

$64.80

Q3-07

57.6053.95

7.20

Strong data growth close to offsetting voice decline

9

10.19

Q3-08Q3-07

89%

11%

84%

16%

as % of ARPU

Page 10: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless marketing and retention

Q3-07 Q3-08 change

Gross adds 363K 447K 23%

Churn1 1.43% 1.52% 9 bps

COA per gross add $379 $341 (10)%

Retention expense $65M $105M 62%

Record gross adds & 10% improvement in marketing efficiency

Investment in retention focused on smartphones10

1 Q3-08 excludes impact from analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers, otherwise churn was 1.68%

Page 11: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Most smartphones on Canada’s largest high-speed network

11

TELUS is a leader in consumer smartphone adoption

BlackBerry CurveBlackBerry Pearl HTC Touch Diamond BlackBerry StormComing Soon!

Page 12: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

2008 revised guidance* - wireless segment

2008 revised guidance YoY Growth1

Revenue $4.65 - $4.675B 9.4%

EBITDA $1.975 - $2.025B 3.7%

Wireless revenue narrowed to low end of range with EBITDA reflecting strong loading and data growth

12

1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance *See forward looking statement caution

Page 13: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless technology evolution at TELUS

National next generation wireless network build Using High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) technology Launching service by early 2010 Smoothes transition to 4G, long term evolution (LTE)

TELUS benefits from network sharing agreement with Bell: Lowering costs and increasing speed of national build Offering widest national coverage by early 2010 Using existing 850/1900 MHz wireless spectrum

13

Array of benefits for TELUS, our customers and investors

See forward looking statement caution

Page 14: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireline Q3 highlights

Smooth implementation of BC customer care and billing systemSolid revenue growth driven by data growth

Emergis and organic data growth offsetting moderate declines in local and long-distance

Lower high-speed Internet net addsNAL losses compare well to North American peers Expenses impacted by large enterprise implementations in

Central Canada

14

Page 15: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireline segment - revenue profile

($M) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change

Voice – Local 511 494 (3.4)%

Voice – Long Distance 181 173 (4.7)%

Data 446 516 16%

Other 66 65 (1.1)%

External Revenue 1,205 1,248 3.6%

Data growth more than offset losses in voice

15

Page 16: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireline segment – Q3 2008 financial results

($M) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change

Revenue 1,205 1,248 3.6%

EBITDA (reported) 466 449 (3.8)%

EBITDA (as adj)1 457 449 (1.6)%

Capital expenditures 303 340 12%

1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expenses (recovery) of $0.6M and $(9.5)M, respectively, in the third quarter of 2008 and 2007

16

EBITDA impacted by increased salaries & benefits, large complex deals, and higher restructuring costs

Page 17: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

1.2 million total

Internet subscribers

Dial-up11%

High-speed Internet net additions

Q3-07 Q3-08

1.1M

134K

Internet subscribers

31K

13K

17

High-speed89%

An opportunity for better execution

Page 18: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers

18

-3%

-4.7%

-6.9%

-3.6%

-9%

-4.5%

Q3 2007

Q3 2008

Other

1 Includes a weighted average of Bell, MTS and Bell Aliant

TELUS compares favourably to North American peers

1

-8%-9%

Page 19: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

2008 revised guidance* - wireline segment

2008 revised guidance YoY Growth1

Revenue $5.025 - $5.05B 4.7%

EBITDA $1.75 - $1.775B (3.6)%

Wireline revenue and EBITDA tightened to low end of range

19

*See forward looking statement caution1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance

Page 20: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Wireless

High-speed Internet

Dial-up Internet

Res NALs

Bus NALs

(millions)11.511.0

Q3-08Q3-07

10.5

Q3-06

Wireless and high-speed Internet driving strong growth

20

Wireless and Internet represent 63% of total connections

Page 21: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Consolidated – Q3 2008 financial results

($M excluding EPS) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change

Revenue 2,310 2,449 6.0%

EBITDA (reported) 987 974 (1.3)%

EBITDA (as adj)1 980 974 (0.6)%

EPS (reported) 1.24 0.89 (28)%

EPS2 (as adj. excl. tax adjustments) 0.95 0.91 (4.2)%

Capital Expenditures 434 472 8.8%1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expense (recovery) of $0.3M and $(7.2)M,

respectively, in Q3-08 and Q3-072 EPS (as adjusted) excludes a net-cash settlement feature recovery of 1 cent in Q3-07 and a 2 cent

unfavourable adjustment in Q3-08 for a sales tax reassessment relating to prior periods

Costs of customer growth depressed margins

21

Page 22: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

1. Includes 2007 settlements of tax related matters and related interest

2. Before restructuring and normalized to exclude IT systems implementation and Amp’d Mobile costs

EPS continuity

$1.24

$0.89

Q3-07 Reported

Cash settled option

expense recovery

2007 IT system impact & Amp’d

write-down

Lower shares

o/s

Dep’n & Amort

Financing Costs

EBITDA22007 Tax Adj.1

0.03

0.01

0.03

0.28 0.06 0.03

0.01

Q3-08 Reported

Lower o/s shares offset by favourable 2007 tax adjustments and higher depreciation & amortization

0.03

Lower 2008 tax

rate

0.03

Rest. & Other

22

0.02

2008 sales

taxadjustment

Page 23: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Share buybacks – Normal Course Issuer Bid

Q3-08Since NCIB

inception (2004)

Total investment (M) $75.1 $2,794

Total shares repurchased (M) 2.0 59.6

Outstanding shares (M) 317.8 40.7

% change in o/s shares(end of period)

2.9%

year-over-year

11%

Since Dec. 04

Returned $707 million to shareholders YTD through share buybacks and quarterly dividend payments

23

Page 24: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Increase consistent with dividend payout ratio guideline of 45-55% of future sustainable net earnings

24

TELUS dividend increase

2007

Dividend growth model 47.5¢ quarterly dividend for

January 2, 2009 Fifth consecutive increase 5.6% increase over 2008 At current trading levels, T.A

shares yielding 4.9%

$1.80

2008

Annual dividends

$1.50

2006

$1.10

$1.90

2009E

Page 25: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

2008 revised guidance* - consolidated

2008 revised guidance

YoY Growth1

Revenue $9.675 - $9.725B 6.9%

EBITDA2 $3.725 - $3.8B 0.1%

EPS – basic (as adj. excl. tax adj.) $3.45 - $3.60 4.9%

Capex (excl. $882M spectrum auction) Approx. $1.9B 7.3%

25

Guidance revised to reflect year-to-date performanceNarrowing revenue and earnings ranges

*See forward looking statement caution

1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance2 2008E EBITDA includes $50M of restructuring expenses versus $20.4M in 2007. When excluding restructuring for both periods, YoY growth for 2008E is estimated to be 1%

Page 26: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

TELUS operating efficiency program (OEP)

Latest phase of OEP augments ongoing annual efficiency initiatives since 2001

Consolidated Technology Strategy, Network Operations and Business Transformation into two business units Benefits include streamlined operations, more effective deployment of

technologies and supporting systems and improved customer service OEP initiatives underway:

Optimizing layers of management and spans of control Business process outsourcing Rationalising products and low value activities Reducing costs by leveraging new technology platforms (billing, HSPA) Consolidating vendor purchasing

26

Restructuring estimate raised $20M to $50M for 2008

Page 27: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

TELUS’ credit position

TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of prudent long-term financial policies

27

Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity Net Debt to EBITDA of 1.9X after paying $882M for AWS

spectrum No significant long-term debt to be refinanced until 2011 Commercial paper providing low-cost source of funds Could term-out existing short-term financing if conditions are

advantageous

Page 28: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Summary

Solid revenue growth Encouraging wireless trends: record subscriber and data revenue

growth NAL losses relatively moderate with growth in business lines Minor revisions to guidance reflecting year-to-date results Cost control remains key focus for rest of 2008 and into 2009 Strong balance sheet Fifth consecutive annual dividend increase

28

Dividend increase reflects confidence in future prospects

Page 29: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Questions?

investor relations 1-800-667-4871telus.com [email protected]

Page 30: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

Appendix – Free cash flow

(9.8) (1.2)Increase (Decrease) in cash

431.8 (170.9)Net Issuance (Repayment) of debt

100.0 50.0 A/R Securitization

(541.6) 119.7 Funds Available for debt redemption

(36.8) (151.1)Working Capital and Other

(75.1) (232.2)Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB)

0.1 0.1 Issues (redemptions) of common shares, net

(429.8) 502.9 Free Cash Flow

(3.4) (7.0)Share based compensation paid

(426.4) 509.9 Free Cash Flow (before cash settled option pmt)

(4.6) (9.2)Donations and securitization fees included in other expense

(9.4) 3.3 Restructuring payments (net of expense)

11.8 3.7 Non-cash portion of share-based compensation

(1.7) (1.1)Cash income taxes; and other

(42.7) (39.7)Interest expense net paid

(881.6) - AWS Spectrum

(472.3) (434.1)Capex

974.1 987.0 EBITDA

2008Q3

2007Q3C$ millions

431.8

100.0

(36.8)

(75.1)

0.1

(3.4)

(4.6)

(9.4)

11.8

(1.7)

(42.7)

0

(472.3)

974.1

2008 Q3 (excl. spectrum)

455.2

451.8

340.0

871.8

Page 31: November 7, 2008 Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call

EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before

interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue

Cash flow: EBITDA less capex

Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs,

cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share

compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital

expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses

such as charitable donations and securitization fees

Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often

presented as a percentage of network revenue

Appendix - definitions

TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures