november 7, 2008 q3 2008 telus investor conference call
TRANSCRIPT
November 7, 2008
Q3 2008 TELUSinvestor conference call
This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the likelihood of new wireless competitors beginning to offer services in 2009 following the AWS spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including the global credit crisis, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (potentially increased in 2009 and future years by the Company’s fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities and fund share repurchases); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post-acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and choice of suppliers, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of HSPA (high speed packet access) / LTE (long-term evolution) wireless technology, successful implementation of the network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products, services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents, including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov).
For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ 2007 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2008 quarterly Management’s discussion and analyses.
TELUS forward looking statements
Agenda
Wireless and wireline segment review Consolidated financial review Updates
Wireless technology evolution 2008 guidance Dividend increase Operating Efficiency Programs Credit position
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Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer
Q3 2008 TELUSInvestor conference call
Wireless Q3 highlights
Strong wireless subscriber results with low COA per gross add Record Q3 gross and net adds excl. analogue turndown
Postpaid basic service brand launch going well ARPU
Strong growth in data as smartphone adoption accelerates Continued decline in voice ARPU
Orderly iDEN to PCS migration for non-PTT users continues Current period EBITDA impacted by strong subscriber growth,
ARPU decrease and increased retention spending Next generation network sharing agreement with Bell
5
Record Q3 and YTD subscriber loading
Wireless segment – Q3 2008 financial results
($M) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change
Revenue 1,105 1,202 8.7%
EBITDA (reported) 521 525 0.9%
EBITDA (as adj)1 523 525 0.4%
Capital expenditures 132 132 0.6%
Good revenue growth of 9% with EBITDA up only 1%primarily due to record subscriber loading
1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature (recovery) expense of $(0.3) million and $2.3 million in the third quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively
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Prepaid 20%
73%
Wireless subscribers
Postpaid 80%
Net additions
Q3-07 Q3-081 6.0 million total
4.8M
1.2M
Wireless subscriber results
Prepaid
Postpaid177K
135K90%
Record Q3 and YTD subscriber loading
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1 Excludes the impact from analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers
Wireless Industry update
Source: TELUS estimates and company disclosure
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(000’s) Q3-07 Q3-08 change
Gross adds (YTD) 3,850 4,130 7.3%
Net adds (YTD) 1,130 1,200 6.2%
Total Subscribers 19,690 21,490 9.1%
Canadian wireless industry generating robust growth
Wireless ARPU
Data
Q3-08
$64.14
Voice
$64.80
Q3-07
57.6053.95
7.20
Strong data growth close to offsetting voice decline
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10.19
Q3-08Q3-07
89%
11%
84%
16%
as % of ARPU
Wireless marketing and retention
Q3-07 Q3-08 change
Gross adds 363K 447K 23%
Churn1 1.43% 1.52% 9 bps
COA per gross add $379 $341 (10)%
Retention expense $65M $105M 62%
Record gross adds & 10% improvement in marketing efficiency
Investment in retention focused on smartphones10
1 Q3-08 excludes impact from analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers, otherwise churn was 1.68%
Most smartphones on Canada’s largest high-speed network
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TELUS is a leader in consumer smartphone adoption
BlackBerry CurveBlackBerry Pearl HTC Touch Diamond BlackBerry StormComing Soon!
2008 revised guidance* - wireless segment
2008 revised guidance YoY Growth1
Revenue $4.65 - $4.675B 9.4%
EBITDA $1.975 - $2.025B 3.7%
Wireless revenue narrowed to low end of range with EBITDA reflecting strong loading and data growth
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1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance *See forward looking statement caution
Wireless technology evolution at TELUS
National next generation wireless network build Using High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) technology Launching service by early 2010 Smoothes transition to 4G, long term evolution (LTE)
TELUS benefits from network sharing agreement with Bell: Lowering costs and increasing speed of national build Offering widest national coverage by early 2010 Using existing 850/1900 MHz wireless spectrum
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Array of benefits for TELUS, our customers and investors
See forward looking statement caution
Wireline Q3 highlights
Smooth implementation of BC customer care and billing systemSolid revenue growth driven by data growth
Emergis and organic data growth offsetting moderate declines in local and long-distance
Lower high-speed Internet net addsNAL losses compare well to North American peers Expenses impacted by large enterprise implementations in
Central Canada
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Wireline segment - revenue profile
($M) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change
Voice – Local 511 494 (3.4)%
Voice – Long Distance 181 173 (4.7)%
Data 446 516 16%
Other 66 65 (1.1)%
External Revenue 1,205 1,248 3.6%
Data growth more than offset losses in voice
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Wireline segment – Q3 2008 financial results
($M) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change
Revenue 1,205 1,248 3.6%
EBITDA (reported) 466 449 (3.8)%
EBITDA (as adj)1 457 449 (1.6)%
Capital expenditures 303 340 12%
1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expenses (recovery) of $0.6M and $(9.5)M, respectively, in the third quarter of 2008 and 2007
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EBITDA impacted by increased salaries & benefits, large complex deals, and higher restructuring costs
1.2 million total
Internet subscribers
Dial-up11%
High-speed Internet net additions
Q3-07 Q3-08
1.1M
134K
Internet subscribers
31K
13K
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High-speed89%
An opportunity for better execution
Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers
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-3%
-4.7%
-6.9%
-3.6%
-9%
-4.5%
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
Other
1 Includes a weighted average of Bell, MTS and Bell Aliant
TELUS compares favourably to North American peers
1
-8%-9%
2008 revised guidance* - wireline segment
2008 revised guidance YoY Growth1
Revenue $5.025 - $5.05B 4.7%
EBITDA $1.75 - $1.775B (3.6)%
Wireline revenue and EBITDA tightened to low end of range
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*See forward looking statement caution1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance
Wireless
High-speed Internet
Dial-up Internet
Res NALs
Bus NALs
(millions)11.511.0
Q3-08Q3-07
10.5
Q3-06
Wireless and high-speed Internet driving strong growth
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Wireless and Internet represent 63% of total connections
Consolidated – Q3 2008 financial results
($M excluding EPS) Q3-07 Q3-08 Change
Revenue 2,310 2,449 6.0%
EBITDA (reported) 987 974 (1.3)%
EBITDA (as adj)1 980 974 (0.6)%
EPS (reported) 1.24 0.89 (28)%
EPS2 (as adj. excl. tax adjustments) 0.95 0.91 (4.2)%
Capital Expenditures 434 472 8.8%1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expense (recovery) of $0.3M and $(7.2)M,
respectively, in Q3-08 and Q3-072 EPS (as adjusted) excludes a net-cash settlement feature recovery of 1 cent in Q3-07 and a 2 cent
unfavourable adjustment in Q3-08 for a sales tax reassessment relating to prior periods
Costs of customer growth depressed margins
21
1. Includes 2007 settlements of tax related matters and related interest
2. Before restructuring and normalized to exclude IT systems implementation and Amp’d Mobile costs
EPS continuity
$1.24
$0.89
Q3-07 Reported
Cash settled option
expense recovery
2007 IT system impact & Amp’d
write-down
Lower shares
o/s
Dep’n & Amort
Financing Costs
EBITDA22007 Tax Adj.1
0.03
0.01
0.03
0.28 0.06 0.03
0.01
Q3-08 Reported
Lower o/s shares offset by favourable 2007 tax adjustments and higher depreciation & amortization
0.03
Lower 2008 tax
rate
0.03
Rest. & Other
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0.02
2008 sales
taxadjustment
Share buybacks – Normal Course Issuer Bid
Q3-08Since NCIB
inception (2004)
Total investment (M) $75.1 $2,794
Total shares repurchased (M) 2.0 59.6
Outstanding shares (M) 317.8 40.7
% change in o/s shares(end of period)
2.9%
year-over-year
11%
Since Dec. 04
Returned $707 million to shareholders YTD through share buybacks and quarterly dividend payments
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Increase consistent with dividend payout ratio guideline of 45-55% of future sustainable net earnings
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TELUS dividend increase
2007
Dividend growth model 47.5¢ quarterly dividend for
January 2, 2009 Fifth consecutive increase 5.6% increase over 2008 At current trading levels, T.A
shares yielding 4.9%
$1.80
2008
Annual dividends
$1.50
2006
$1.10
$1.90
2009E
2008 revised guidance* - consolidated
2008 revised guidance
YoY Growth1
Revenue $9.675 - $9.725B 6.9%
EBITDA2 $3.725 - $3.8B 0.1%
EPS – basic (as adj. excl. tax adj.) $3.45 - $3.60 4.9%
Capex (excl. $882M spectrum auction) Approx. $1.9B 7.3%
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Guidance revised to reflect year-to-date performanceNarrowing revenue and earnings ranges
*See forward looking statement caution
1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance2 2008E EBITDA includes $50M of restructuring expenses versus $20.4M in 2007. When excluding restructuring for both periods, YoY growth for 2008E is estimated to be 1%
TELUS operating efficiency program (OEP)
Latest phase of OEP augments ongoing annual efficiency initiatives since 2001
Consolidated Technology Strategy, Network Operations and Business Transformation into two business units Benefits include streamlined operations, more effective deployment of
technologies and supporting systems and improved customer service OEP initiatives underway:
Optimizing layers of management and spans of control Business process outsourcing Rationalising products and low value activities Reducing costs by leveraging new technology platforms (billing, HSPA) Consolidating vendor purchasing
26
Restructuring estimate raised $20M to $50M for 2008
TELUS’ credit position
TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of prudent long-term financial policies
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Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity Net Debt to EBITDA of 1.9X after paying $882M for AWS
spectrum No significant long-term debt to be refinanced until 2011 Commercial paper providing low-cost source of funds Could term-out existing short-term financing if conditions are
advantageous
Summary
Solid revenue growth Encouraging wireless trends: record subscriber and data revenue
growth NAL losses relatively moderate with growth in business lines Minor revisions to guidance reflecting year-to-date results Cost control remains key focus for rest of 2008 and into 2009 Strong balance sheet Fifth consecutive annual dividend increase
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Dividend increase reflects confidence in future prospects
Questions?
investor relations 1-800-667-4871telus.com [email protected]
Appendix – Free cash flow
(9.8) (1.2)Increase (Decrease) in cash
431.8 (170.9)Net Issuance (Repayment) of debt
100.0 50.0 A/R Securitization
(541.6) 119.7 Funds Available for debt redemption
(36.8) (151.1)Working Capital and Other
(75.1) (232.2)Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB)
0.1 0.1 Issues (redemptions) of common shares, net
(429.8) 502.9 Free Cash Flow
(3.4) (7.0)Share based compensation paid
(426.4) 509.9 Free Cash Flow (before cash settled option pmt)
(4.6) (9.2)Donations and securitization fees included in other expense
(9.4) 3.3 Restructuring payments (net of expense)
11.8 3.7 Non-cash portion of share-based compensation
(1.7) (1.1)Cash income taxes; and other
(42.7) (39.7)Interest expense net paid
(881.6) - AWS Spectrum
(472.3) (434.1)Capex
974.1 987.0 EBITDA
2008Q3
2007Q3C$ millions
431.8
100.0
(36.8)
(75.1)
0.1
(3.4)
(4.6)
(9.4)
11.8
(1.7)
(42.7)
0
(472.3)
974.1
2008 Q3 (excl. spectrum)
455.2
451.8
340.0
871.8
EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue
Cash flow: EBITDA less capex
Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs,
cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share
compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital
expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses
such as charitable donations and securitization fees
Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often
presented as a percentage of network revenue
Appendix - definitions
TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures