NRC Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's

Modernization Program

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

1

February 9, 2012

Outline

• Short Term Activities (FY12-13)– New Building– Computer Upgrade– AWIPS II Conversion

• Longer Term Activities– Support O2R (NCEP models running on research

computers)– Expanding applications of multi-model ensembles (MME)– Expansion of operational models from space weather to

ocean/coastal– Streamlining implementation process

• Summary

2

Major Tactical Efforts• Once in a Lifetime

– Move to NCWCP

• Once in a Career

– AWIPS2 Transition

• Once in a Decade– Central Computer System (CCS)

Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract)

All occur in FY2012!3

Major Thrusts for 2012

• Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and

Research (STAR)• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists• Includes 468 seat auditorium/

conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

4

History of Construction

5

• Groundbreaking March 2006• Construction start May 2007• Construction halted December 2008 - NCWCP

construction 80% complete• In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to

recover “damages” from the Government• In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County

Court• The Federal Court dismissed all remaining claims filed by the

developer on February 9, 2011• These actions cleared away all

remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project

• Work restarted April 6, 2011

Move Schedule• February 2, 2012 – data center setup began!• August 2012 – begin phased move-in

– Front offices– Non-operational groups

• August 2012 – dual operations• October 2012 – complete move• September/October 2012 – ribbon-cutting ceremony

6

February 2, 2012

February 2, 2012Data Center at NCWCP

7

Computer Upgrade

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15Bridge Contract with IBM – Current Systems

New Contract/Task Orders with IBM – New Systems

Operations

Transition activities

Date Milestone

Oct 2011 Bridge contract in place supporting current systems

Nov 2011 New 10-year ID/IQ contract awarded to IBM

Feb 2012 Task Order 002 awarded – acquires new systems for the 5-year base period

Feb 2012 – Aug 2013 Transition to new systems and facilities

Sep 2013 Go live on new systems

Major Milestones

Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System

WCOSS Milestones OverviewFY16

WCOSS OverviewWeather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System

• Current Systems under the Bridge contract– Two IBM Power/P6 systems– Gaithersburg, MD– Fairmont, WV

• New systems under the new ID/IQ contract– Two IBM systems

• Architecture and size TBD• Undergoing task order contract actions

– Reston, VA– Orlando, FL

9

NAWIPS to AWIPS II Conversion Status

You are here

NSHARP BaselinedMulti-panel DisplayProduct Generation

You are here

11

Longer Term Activities

Supporting O2RNOAA Models/Computer Resources

• Recent changes supporting operational code on 5 computers in U.S.

• Three organizations in India running NCEP CFS and GFS models– Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

(IITM)– India's National Centre for Medium Range

Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)– Indian National Center for Ocean Information

Services– Focus on seasonal-daily monsoon predictions

12

13

HPC Details Accts Allocation Allocation Used Projects

GAEA (NOAA)-Cray XT6-ORNL-Oak Ridge, TN

37 6.2% of System resources (5.04M Core Hours per month)

<10% • Develop GDAS/GFS parallel capability-Moorthi• Test GFS Semi-Lagrangian development-Moorthi• CFSRL completion-Kistler• GFS coupled atm/ocean testing-Saha

T-Jet (NOAA)-Linux-GSD-Boulder, CO

~10 HWRF – 1380 Cores

GDAS – 5400 Cores

HWRF – 2011: 4.7 M Corehours

GDAS – 3000 Cores2.0 M Core hrs in Q1 and Q2 FY12

• HFIP/HWRF FY12 pre-implementation testing of 3-km moving nest HWRF ensembles-Tallapragada

• GFS Semi-Lagrangian development/testing for FY12 HFIP Demo and FY13 operational implementation-Moorthi/Yang

• Preliminary development of 4d-Var component of Hybrid DA—Kleist

• Preliminary testing of ENKF ensembles to week 1 & 2 medium range NWP-Zhu

• Hi-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) testing for NextGen

JIBB (NASA/NOAA)-Linux-JCSDA-GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

3 EMC8 JCSDA5 NASA8 Univ.

TBD NA • Installation of operational GST, GSF• Installation of Hybrid DAS• Data Impact Assessment Experiments with current and new

data assimilation systems

S4 (NOAA)-Linux-NESDIS-Madison, WI

1 EMC7 JCSDA1 FFO

TBD NA • Global and Regional Satellite Data Assimilation Exp.• CRTM Development• Installation of Hybrid DA• Satellite/sounding assessments

Zeus (NOAA) -Linux -Fairmont, WV

24 NCEP early access accts

44.8%10,790 cores149 TFlops

NA • Systems acceptance (Feb 2012)• Centers move all codes and data from Vapor to Zeus (by end of

March 2012)• Real-time/experimental HRRR

R&D HPC OverviewGaea

Oak Ridge, TN

Total capacity:~77,800 cores1.1 PFlops

NCEP allocation 6.2%:~4,800 cores68.2 TFlops

Next Major Event: Jan 2012 - Full processor replacement

Zeus

Fairmont, WV

Total capacity:24,084 cores333 TFlops

NCEP allocation 44.8%:10,790 cores149 TFlops

Next Major Event: Feb 2012 – System acceptance

11 January 2012 NCEP Utilization of NOAA R&D HPC - NCEP HPC RAC - v2012.01.10.v1 14

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather:

Expanding Applications of MME

15

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast UncertaintyForecast

Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Ocean ModelHYCOMWave Watch III

Global Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle for AviationNARRE

NCEP Model Perspective

Ma

ritim

eM

arit

ime

Life

& P

rop

ert

yL

ife &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ace

Op

era

tion

sS

pa

ce O

pe

ratio

ns

Re

cre

atio

nR

ecr

ea

tion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

En

viro

nm

en

tE

nvi

ron

me

nt

Em

erg

en

cy M

gm

t E

me

rge

ncy

Mg

mt

Ag

ricu

lture

Ag

ricu

lture

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

Re

serv

oir

Co

ntr

ol

En

erg

y P

lan

nin

gE

ne

rgy

Pla

nn

ing

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fire

We

ath

er

Fire

We

ath

er

He

alth

He

alth

Avi

atio

nA

via

tion

Hurricane – GFDL, WRFGLOFS BaysChesapeakeTampaDelaware

EUROSIP

16

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

Climate

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteExpansion into Space Weather and Coastal Prediction

CFSv2 MOM4NOAHSea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

Hybrid

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

16

Re

gio

na

lD

A

Satellites + Radar99.9%

1.7B Obs/Day

NOSPORTSGLOFS

ChesapeakeTampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

SpaceWeather

(Future)

ENLIL

Co

up

led

(Fu

ture

)

Regi

onal

DA

17

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

Climate

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteContributions from Outside of NCEP

CFSv2 MOM4NOAHSea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

Hybrid

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

17

Re

gio

na

lD

A

Satellites + Radar99.9%

1.7B Obs/Day

NOSPORTSGLOFS

ChesapeakeTampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

SpaceWeather

(Future)

ENLIL

Co

up

led

(Fu

ture

)

Regi

onal

DA

18

19

Streamline Implementation Process

20

NOAA is working on:

1. Research to Operations Policy (complete)

2. An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location

3. A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations

NOAA Research and Development Funnel

Reference - “Research Location in NOAA: Physical and Social Sciences”. March 2006, 72 pp.

21

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies&

International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

ASI, COLA,ARCS

Operations to Research

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBWRF DTC

JHT

22

NCEP

R2O

1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs…

2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O).

Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer

feedback; Bring in customer requests

4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A).

5. Delivery of products to the

diverse community and customer

feedback

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

2

NOAAis well

positionedto provide an operational

infra-structure for

the transition processes

User Community

R&D Community

OPERATIONS

1

3

EMC/GFDLCFS

5

4

O2A

CTB

CPC

CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

O2R

R2O

Streamlining Implementation ProcessEMC

NCO

Streamlining Implementation ProcessEMC

NCO

Streamlining Implementation Process

• Net Result– Saving time(months/year)– Making process simpler by eliminating

confusion/barriers to the outside (cited by UCAR Review)

– Allowing for an increase in implementations per year

25

Summary

• Intense focus on FY12 tactical issues– Building move– Computer upgrade– AWIPS II conversion

• All activities noted above have major strategic importance

• NCEP supporting O2R to accelerate R2O• We still have work to do/resources to

allocate to address full role of NCEP in Roadmap plans (HFIP, NextGen)

26