nrt (near real time) data application to air quality...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NRT (Near Real Time) Data
Application to Air Quality
Forecasts
Sunling Gong
4th International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR)
Geneva, 12-14 December 2012
A CMA-WMO/GURME Pilot Project
![Page 2: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Page 2 – January-2-13
WMO Leads
The Atmospheric Research and Environment
Programme (AREP)
GURME Programme:
GONG, Sunling, Project/sciences Lead
CARMICHAEL, Gregory, SAG Chair
JALKANEN, Liisa, WMO/AREP
![Page 3: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Page 3 – January-2-13
CMA Leads
The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Center for the Atmospheric Watch and Services
(CAWAS)
ZHANG, Xiaoye, Project/sciences Lead
![Page 4: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Page 4 – January-2-13
Objectives
– Develop and establish a NRT chemical data
transfer system to collect and process both
ground based and satellite observations,
based on the WMO data transfer protocols
for conventional weather data;
– Develop an AQ forecasting system and
integrate it with the NRT system to
illustrate the capacity of NRT data to
enhance the accuracy of AQ forecasts in
China;
![Page 5: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Page 5 – January-2-13
– Develop an emission estimating system
using the NRT data and inverse modeling
methodology;
– Exchange and transfer research results
with other national and international
agencies.
Objectives
![Page 6: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Page 6 – January-2-13
Expected Results
The pilot project will demonstrate the
potential of the NRT data in improving
the AQ forecast. The main product of
the project will be an integrated system
and associated methodology that can
be used to improve the AQ forecasting
ability in other regions (countries) under
WMO GURME.
![Page 7: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Page 7 – January-2-13
NRT Data in China
![Page 8: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Page 8 – January-2-13
CAWNET
Hourly PM10
(some include
PM2.5, PM1)
visibility
aerosol-light
absorption
aerosol-light
scattering
meteorology
37
![Page 9: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Science and Technology Branch
Environment Canada
Data Checking systemThe data quality monitoring system can help the network staff find the problem of the instruments in time to decrease the possibility of bad data:
Green color means the instrument is OK.Blue color means the instrument is also OK, but needs to be take care of the power supply.Red color means serious problems occurred and need to resolve ASAP.
CARSNET (CMA Aerosol Remote Sensing NETwork)
CARSNET
26 sites with CIMEL
sunphotometer
kept running
operationally
The calibration
system including
solar and sky
measurements
26
![Page 10: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Page 10 – January-2-13
MODIS
Satellites - AOD
FY-3A
![Page 11: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Page 11 – January-2-13
AQ and Chemical Weather Forecasting System
![Page 12: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Page 12 – January-2-13
Chinese Chemical Weather Forecasting
System – CUACE
CUACE (CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment)
Meteorological Frame: GRAPES, MM5, RCM, NCC-GCM
Emissions
various reactiontransformationSO2,NOx, PM, CO, NO2,O3
PM (Dust, BC-OC, SO4, NO3, NH4, SSalt), O3
Data assimilation
![Page 13: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Page 13 – January-2-13
CUACE/Haze-Fog Forecasting System
Yangzi River Delta
Perl River Delta
National 54 km
Regional 9 km
![Page 14: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Page 14 – January-2-13
Data assimilations
![Page 15: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Page 15 – January-2-13
3D-Var is to minimize the following function
( Lorenc,1986 ):
))(())(()()(2
1)( 1T1T
oobb xHxHxxxxxJ yOyB
Using the observational data y0 to find the
solution of x that satisfies the min J(x)
xa
3D-Var Method
![Page 16: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Page 16 – January-2-13
Model vs Obs.
Models:
12 size bins of 6 types
of aerosols:
SF, BC, OC, SD, NT
and SS
AODs
Vertical profiles
NRT Observations:
AOD
PM10, PM2.5
Dust
![Page 17: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Page 17 – January-2-13
Assimilation Scheme
• Modeled AOD Assimilated with obs. AOD
Assume the modeled
composition,
size distributions,
vertical profiles
If dust occurs
Dust DAS
with IDDI
Revised the SD
12 size bins of 6 aerosol types
Other NRT
Observations:
Lidar
PM
![Page 18: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Page 18 – January-2-13
With DASNo DAS
CUACE/Dust : WMO SDS-WAS
Niu et al 2008
2006 Spring Forecasts: threat Score (TS) increased from 0.22 to 0.31, a
41% enhancement.
![Page 19: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Page 19 – January-2-13
AOD (FY-3A) Assimilationa b
c d
Satellite Initial
Corrections Final
2009-9-29
![Page 20: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Page 20 – January-2-13
Emission Inversions
![Page 21: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Page 21 – January-2-13
FeedbackRadiation, Cloud
Emissions
Geophysical data
Meteorological obs. Gas Phase
Chemistry
Aerosol Module
O3 CO NOx
PM2.5
PM10Acid Deposition
ISORROPIAAerosol Equilibrium Scheme
GRAPES/M
M5
Mete
oro
logy T
ransp
ort
Data
Assimilation
NH4, NO3
CMA AQ Forecasting System
![Page 22: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Page 22 – January-2-13
Adjoint Model
![Page 23: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Page 23 – January-2-13
Ensemble Kaman Filter Model
EnKF
![Page 24: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Page 24 – January-2-13
CAWNET
Hourly PM10
(some include
PM2.5, PM1)
visibility
aerosol-light
absorption
aerosol-light
scattering
meteorology
BC
![Page 25: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Page 25 – January-2-13
Gridded Emissions
Total: 1.4 Tg/a
Unit:t/km2
Total: 2.95 Tg/a
0.5°×0.5°
BC
OC
![Page 26: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Page 26 – January-2-13
Original After inversed
BC Emi. Strength(mg m-2 s-1)
Ensemble Kaman Filter Model
![Page 27: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Page 27 – January-2-13
Improvement by EnKF
2008-7-2:02 2:14 3:02 3:14 4:02 4:140
2
4
6
8
10
12
BC
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
ug
/m3
)
obs
Forecast
Forecast with inversing emission
![Page 28: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Page 28 – January-2-13
Technology Exchange/Transfer
![Page 29: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Page 29 – January-2-13
GEM-MACH - Structure
SMOKERegional Data
Canada & US
Gas Phase
Chemistry
CAMCanadian Aerosol Module
ISORROPIAEquilibrium Scheme
GE
MM
ete
oro
log
y T
ran
sp
ort
Em
issi
on
In
terfa
ce
Ch
emis
try I
nte
rfa
ce
Global
Emissions
![Page 30: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Page 30 – January-2-13
"Multiscale" Examples:
Three GEM Grid Configurations
globalregional
limited area
![Page 31: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Page 31 – January-2-13
A Daily AOD from MODIS
Deep Blue”
AOD product
over bright
land surface
0.55 μm
band
from both
Terra and
Aqua.
M O D - Terra
M YD - Aqua
![Page 32: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Page 32 – January-2-13
NRT AOD from GOES Satellite
![Page 33: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Page 33 – January-2-13
AeroNET AOD Sites
![Page 34: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Page 34 – January-2-13
AOD Assimilation for GEM-
MACH Globe
![Page 35: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Page 35 – January-2-13
Conclusions
• Data Assimilation (DA) can substantially improve
the AQ forecasts for PM, especially for strong,
episodic events, such as soil dust and bio-mass
burning;
• The NRT data can improve the aerosol
emissions to enhance the AQ forecasts;
• More speciated NRT data are needed to further
enhance the DA;
• NRT vertical profiles from surface or air-born
lidar would be useful to the DA.
![Page 36: NRT (Near Real Time) Data Application to Air Quality Forecastsmce2.org/wmogurme/images/workshops/2012/IWAQFR/Friday/4th IWA… · Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011802/5b5a45347f8b9a905c8b9b58/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Page 36 – January-2-13
Thank you!