NSF Program Update

Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory Astronomy & Astrophysics Advisory CommitteeCommittee

13 February 200613 February 2006

Update Topics

General newsGeneral news FY2006 Current PlanFY2006 Current Plan FY2007 RequestFY2007 Request Grants program Grants program New Faces in ASTNew Faces in AST Senior ReviewSenior Review

General

ALMA ProjectALMA Project NA Antenna procurement Baseline Review results ESO Antenna decision Delta Cost review/NA management review

Late January/February Validate cost increase because of two antenna designs Examine NA cost and management in depth (NSF led)

NSB recommendation/action expected May 2006

General

NSO – ATST NSO – ATST NSF Director moved to ‘readiness’ phase NSF Director moved to ‘readiness’ phase Environmental Impact study underwayEnvironmental Impact study underway Partnerships with Air Force and international Partnerships with Air Force and international

communities under discussioncommunities under discussion AST continues to provide funding (~$2M) within NSOAST continues to provide funding (~$2M) within NSO Earliest likely entry to MREFC account is FY2009Earliest likely entry to MREFC account is FY2009

General

VERITAS VERITAS Draft Environmental Assessment completed in Nov Draft Environmental Assessment completed in Nov

20052005 Environmental monitoring continues until June 2006Environmental monitoring continues until June 2006 Held consultation with Tohono O’odham in January Held consultation with Tohono O’odham in January Progress continues at Whipple Observatory base campProgress continues at Whipple Observatory base camp Earliest possible construction resumption on Kitt Peak Earliest possible construction resumption on Kitt Peak

is ~ July 2006 is ~ July 2006

General

Virtual Observatory Virtual Observatory MOU between NSF and NASA is circulating for final MOU between NSF and NASA is circulating for final

clearanceclearance Program solicitation ready for clearance, waiting for Program solicitation ready for clearance, waiting for

MOU signature MOU signature Still anticipate competition in FY2006 Still anticipate competition in FY2006 Funds available to ensure smooth transition from NVO Funds available to ensure smooth transition from NVO

development project to VO implementationdevelopment project to VO implementation

• FY2006 Request $198.64M (FY2005 + 1.81%)

• Increases for Physics of the Universe and facilities stewardship (MPS priorities)

• FY2006 Appropriation - NSF request + ~1% increase for R&RA

• Rescission of 1.28% - resulting AST budget ~$199.65M (relative to $195.1M in FY2005)

• ‘recommended’ $51.4M budget for NRAO

- $4M over request

- must be found within existing program budgets

AST FY2006 Budget

Facilities

NOAO NSO

Gemini1

NRAO

NAIC

UROs

AST FY2006 Budget

$25.0 M

$10.0M

$18.5 M

$47.4 M

$10.6 M

$8.0 M

Request - $119.5M Plan - $122.0M

$24.55 M

$10.0 M

$18.26 M

$50.74M

$10.46 M

$8.0 M

1Includes $1M Chilean buy-back

Astronomy Research & Instrumentation -

• Request - $79.1 M

- up 4% from FY2005

- increase directed primarily toward Physics of the Universe

• Current Plan - $77.6 M- ‘additional’ funds allocated above request directed toward Physics of the Universe

- source of funds for NRAO earmark

ATI program new awards curtailed

- Includes $4M for LSST and $2M for GSMT TDP

- Includes ‘cyberinfrastructure’ funds for NVO start

AST FY2006 Budget

FY2007 Request for AST $215.11M (FY2006 + 7.7% or $15.5M)

• Facilities base operations budgets held level pending outcome of senior review

• Increases for:

- GSMT ($5M, up $3M)

- TSIP ($4M, up $2M)

- AODP ($1.5M, restored)

- Physics of the Universe activities enhanced

- Elementary Particle Physics - dark energy, dark matter studies (with Physics Division)

- Research grants programs up overall

- Gemini future instrumentation

FY2007 Budget Request

MPS by DivisionMPS by Division

FY 2004 Actuals

FY 2005 Actuals

Change from

04 to 05

FY 2006 Current

Plan

Change from

05 to 06FY 2007 Request

Change from

06 to 07AST 196.63 195.11 -0.8% 199.65 2.3% 215.11 7.7%CHE 185.12 179.26 -3.2% 180.78 0.8% 191.10 5.7%DMR 250.65 240.09 -4.2% 242.91 1.2% 257.45 6.0%DMS 200.35 200.24 -0.1% 199.30 -0.5% 205.74 3.2%PHY 227.77 224.86 -1.3% 233.13 3.7% 248.50 6.6%OMA 31.07 29.80 -4.1% 29.68 -0.4% 32.40 9.2%Total, MPS 1,091.59 1,069.36 -2.0% 1085.45 1.5% 1150.30 6.0%

R&RA 4293.34 4234.82 -1.4% 4,331.48 2.3% 4,665.95 7.7%

NSF 5652.01 5480.78 -3.0% 5,581.17 1.8% 6,020.21 7.9%

(Dollars in Millions)

MPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryMPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryMPS Subactivity Funding

(Dollars in Millions)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

AST CHE DMR DMS PHY OMA

MPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryMPS Ten-Year Funding HistoryMPS Subactivity Funding

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07

AST CHE DMR DMS PHY OMA

Impact of changes at NASA

• Seeing strong increase in proposal pressure

• Research grants proposals up 20% in FY2006

(following 15% increase in FY2005)

• Budget in FY2006 is NOT increasing

• Increased interaction with NASA colleagues

• Joint staff meetings

• Coordinating reviews and funding recommendations

FY2006 Budget and AST Grants Programs

AST Grants Programs

Trends in AAG programTrends in AAG program Has grown significantly in past 5 yearsHas grown significantly in past 5 years

Number of proposalsNumber of proposals BudgetBudget Success rateSuccess rate Typical award sizeTypical award size

But proposal pressure is increasing rapidlyBut proposal pressure is increasing rapidly Anticipate substantial decreases in success rateAnticipate substantial decreases in success rate

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Fiscal year

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$(M

)

Median Annual Award AAG budget

AAG Program Evolution FY1996-2006

AAG Program Evolution FY1995-2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fiscal Year

Nu

mb

er

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Fu

nd

ing

rat

e

Proposals Funding rate

New Faces in AST Dr. Phil PuxleyDr. Phil Puxley

Coming from Gemini SouthComing from Gemini South Permanent program manager for AST facilitiesPermanent program manager for AST facilities

Dr. Wei ZhengDr. Wei Zheng Program officer in AAG programsProgram officer in AAG programs Visiting scientist from Johns HopkinsVisiting scientist from Johns Hopkins

Dr. Thomas BarnesDr. Thomas Barnes Program officer for national facilities and large projectsProgram officer for national facilities and large projects Visiting appointment from University of TexasVisiting appointment from University of Texas

NSF Division of Astronomical Sciences

Senior ReviewUpdate

AST Budget FY1995-2006

Total of Decadal Survey recommendations

___________________________________________

“Senior Review” ProcessProcess

Established web site for informationEstablished web site for informationhttp://www.http://www.nsfnsf..govgov/mps//mps/astast//astast_senior_review.jsp_senior_review.jsp Requested community input to email: Requested community input to email:

astsenior_review@nsf.govastsenior_review@nsf.gov Held regional town meetingsHeld regional town meetings

– Boston, Minneapolis, Clemson, DC, Boston, Minneapolis, Clemson, DC, Boulder, Berkeley, AAS meetingBoulder, Berkeley, AAS meeting

AST visiting all facilities to meet with staff and AST visiting all facilities to meet with staff and managementmanagement

AST exploring implications of all issues identified. AST exploring implications of all issues identified. e.g. facility closure, divestituree.g. facility closure, divestiture

“Senior Review”Committee MembershipCommittee Membership

(subcommittee of MPS Advisory Committee)(subcommittee of MPS Advisory Committee)

Roger Blandford - Stanford (Chair)Roger Blandford - Stanford (Chair)

John Huchra - HarvardJohn Huchra - HarvardElizabeth Lada - U. FloridaElizabeth Lada - U. FloridaMalcolm Longair - CambridgeMalcolm Longair - CambridgeJ. Patrick Looney - BrookhavenJ. Patrick Looney - BrookhavenBruce Partridge - HaverfordBruce Partridge - HaverfordVera Rubin - Carnegie/DTMVera Rubin - Carnegie/DTM

Tom Ayres - ColoradoTom Ayres - ColoradoDonald Backer - UC BerkeleyDonald Backer - UC BerkeleyJohn Carlstrom - ChicagoJohn Carlstrom - ChicagoKarl Gebhardt - Texas, AustinKarl Gebhardt - Texas, AustinLynne Hillenbrand - CaltechLynne Hillenbrand - CaltechCraig Hogan - U. WashingtonCraig Hogan - U. Washington

Charge posted on the webCharge posted on the webhttp://www.nsf.gov/mps/ast/ast_senior_review.jsp

“Senior Review”

First meeting of committee 19-21 October 2005First meeting of committee 19-21 October 2005 • Included sessions with facilities managers and directors Included sessions with facilities managers and directors • Considered Considered

– Observatory submissionsObservatory submissions– Reports from O/IR and Radio long-range planning Reports from O/IR and Radio long-range planning

groupsgroups– Common metrics from all facilities Common metrics from all facilities – Community commentsCommunity comments

• Committee began framing criteria for evaluationCommittee began framing criteria for evaluation• AST provided examples of options for actionAST provided examples of options for action

Committee developed second set of questions for facility Committee developed second set of questions for facility managers to address before next meetingmanagers to address before next meeting

“Senior Review”

Committee met 12-13 January 2006 Committee met 12-13 January 2006 Included second session with facilities managers Included second session with facilities managers

and directorsand directors

Next meeting end of February Next meeting end of February

Requested report by 31 March 2006Requested report by 31 March 2006 But committee to take as much time as needed But committee to take as much time as needed

“Senior Review”

Next StepsNext Steps

Report will be submitted to MPS AC for acceptanceReport will be submitted to MPS AC for acceptance

AST will formulate an implementation planAST will formulate an implementation plan• Some recommendations may require additional Some recommendations may require additional

explorationexploration• Bring plan to community (Special session at Calgary Bring plan to community (Special session at Calgary

AAS, regional town meetings)AAS, regional town meetings)

CAA will be consulted as AST acts on recommendationsCAA will be consulted as AST acts on recommendations

Results will inform FY2008 budget development at the earliest Results will inform FY2008 budget development at the earliest (i.e. change will not be visible immediately).(i.e. change will not be visible immediately).

Stewardship and Science

NSF is steward of ground-based astronomyNSF is steward of ground-based astronomy Committee asked to help us in that stewardshipCommittee asked to help us in that stewardship Fabric of science must be far deeper and richer Fabric of science must be far deeper and richer

than Decade priority listthan Decade priority list Much of the structure is taken for grantedMuch of the structure is taken for granted Examine that fabric – be certain pulling a thread Examine that fabric – be certain pulling a thread

doesn’t unravel it alldoesn’t unravel it all Scientific capability for the futureScientific capability for the future Broad community support for the programBroad community support for the program

The Question

““The question for all of us is to judge The question for all of us is to judge whether these changes are viable and lead whether these changes are viable and lead to a vital and sustainable future, or whether to a vital and sustainable future, or whether the pace and scope of change necessary to the pace and scope of change necessary to realize the cumulative aspirations of the realize the cumulative aspirations of the community under severely constrained community under severely constrained budgets are too drasticbudgets are too drastic.”.”

Operating budgets and grant increments to realize the Decadal Survey recommendations

___________________________________________