NuclearpowerprograminPoland

DrJózefSobolewski

DirectorDepartmentofNuclearEnergyMinistryofEnergy,Poland

2

PolishPowerSystemThetotalmaximumcapacityinPolishPowerSystem(PPS)reached43 421 MW (asof 31December2017).

• Coal-firedpowerplants– 20 247 MW• Lignite-firedpowerplants– 9352MW• Gaspowerplants– 2341MW• Industrialpowerplants– 2813 MW• Hydroelectricpowerplants– 2328 MW• Renewableresources– 6341 MW• Nuclear:0MW

Energyconsumption:168 139 GWh/year(2017)4,37 MWh/percitizen/year;oneofthelowestinEurope.AccordingtoallestimationsenergyconsumptioninPolandwillgrowincomingdecades.

Transmissiongrid - 14195 km:• 1lineof750kV(114km),• 93 linesof400kV(6 326 km),• 164 linesof220kV(7755 km),Under-sea450kVDCconnectionbetweenPolandandSweden(245km)

Bełchatów12x370MW1x858MW

Kozienice2x500MW8x225MW1x1075MW

StalowaWola2x125MW

DolnaOdra6x220MW

Rybnik8x225MW

Adamów5x120MW

Łaziska2x125MW4x225MW

Ostrołęka3x220MW

Jaworzno6x225MW

Siersza2x150MW2x120MW

Turów3x260MW3x235MW

Porąbka-Żar4x135MW

Żarnowiec4x180MW

Żydowo3x60MW

Opole4x380MW

Pątnów1x460MW6x200MW

Łagisza1x460MW2x120MW

Dychów3x30MW

Solina2x70MW2x30MW

Połaniec7x225MW

2050

coalandlignite nuclearpower gasfuels other renewables

Goal50%?

Currentandfutureenergygenerationstructure

Goal60%

6%

6%

8%

20%

2031

Assumptions:ü slightdeclineofconsumptionof

coalby2031andwithoutchangesafter2031

ü 1,5GWbyNPPin2031,6-9GWby2050

ü Averageincreaseofproductionby0,86%y/y(acceleratedincreaseby2030,slowdownby2050)

78%

5%3%

14%

2016

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.6 4.7 6.2 7.3 9.1

0.5 0.8 0.6 0.90.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.7 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

nonDispatchable

Moc dysp. wiatru (el. istniejące)

Dispatchable

Reserve gap

Demand gap

Capacity demand

Capacity demand plus reserve

5,8 GW * 0,9

[GW]

Dispatchable power plants

Last coal power plants under construction

Wind power plantsdispatchable capacity

Dispachablecapacity of wind

Dispatchable capacity of small power plants and renewables without wind

Peakloadandcurrentandplanedcapacity

SOURCE:ME,PSE

Mainchallenges

11.47.4 9.5

1725

3240

4450

0

10

20

30

40

50

60EUR/tCO2

Source:PolishEnergyMarketAgency2017.Projectionbasedon:1) OECD/IEA,WorldEnergyOutlook2016,Paris,

November2016.2) EuropeanCommission:EUReferenceScenario2016.

Energy,transportandGHGemissionstrendsto2050,July2016.

3) “ThomsonReutersCarbonMarketSurvey2016”,Nordeng,A.etal.,May,2016.

4) KfW/ZEWCO2Barometer2016– CarbonEdition.

Aging structure of the existingpower plants in Poland (2016)

Ligniteresourcesalreadyminedout (2040)

Increasingcostsofcoalpowergeneration(CO2,airpollutants)

Source:EuropeanEnvironmentAgency

Electricitygeneration– CO2 emissionintensity

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361 385 409 433 457 481 505 529 553 577 601 625 649 673 697 721

PolishPowerSystem- July2018(hourlyinMW)

WindPower Consumption InstaledWindPower

14%

PolishNuclearPowerProgram

• PNPPwasapprovedon January 28th2014 bytheCouncilofMinisters.ItskeygoalsresultingfromtheEnergyPolicyofPolanduntil2030arefollowing:

ü assuringlong-termsecurityofelectricitysupplyü maintainingelectricitypricesatlevelsacceptablebythenational

economyandthesocietyü reducingemissionsofCO2 andotherairpollutants

• 2NPPplannedwithtotalinstalledcapacity:6000MWe• Currentstatus:

The government is working on update of the document and newbusiness model for the first NPPs.

8

892862

836821

804787 782 774 775 766 758

745713 702

634 634

576 574

520 510 505 495 486 481

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000[kg CO2/MWh] Assumptions:

ü 1,5GWsince2031,further2unitsafter2and4years

ü 7,5-10GWinstalledcapacityinwindturbines

ü IncludedCCGT,newcoalpowerunits,gasunits,oilunitsandotherrenewables.

Źródło:PSE/ME9

AverageCO2 emissionper1MWh

Thankyouforattention