nuclear power: the four transitions
TRANSCRIPT
Leonam dos Santos Guimarães
443 operating NPPs today443 operating NPPs today
Producing 11% of world electricityProducing 11% of world electricity
Taking part of theTaking part of theEnergy matrix ofEnergy matrix of31 countries31 countries
Without forgetting ...Without forgetting ...
248 research reactors in 56 countries248 research reactors in 56 countries
and 180 reactors moving 140 shipsand 180 reactors moving 140 shipsand submarines in 6 countries ...and submarines in 6 countries ...
67 NPPS being built in 15 countries67 NPPS being built in 15 countries2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid
ANGRA 3ANGRA 3
Brazil:Brazil: 2.400 kwh per capita 2.400 kwh per capitaPortugal: 4.800Portugal: 4.800China:China: 1.900 1.900
Manaus
Brasília
São PauloItaipu
Porto Alegre
Fortaleza
Salvador
Rio de Janeiro
BeloHorizonte
Recife
Angra
4.000 4.000 kmkm4.000 4.000 kmkm
HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONHYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION
• the expansion of a large interconnected power system, with significant predominance of hydro renewable primary source requires an increasing thermal contribution due to:
• gradual exhaustion of the economic and environmentally viable hydro potential
• loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower water storage capacity in the reservoirs related to the system load growth.
• Canadian electric system over
the past 50 years holds many
similarities with the situation of
the Brazilian over last 15 years.
• From a contribution of over 90%
in 1960, hydroelectricity share
in Canada declined steadily until
1990, stabilizing around 60%.
HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONHYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION
Hydro-Thermal TransitionHydro-Thermal Transition
INSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZILINSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZIL
MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL GENERATION IN BRAZILGENERATION IN BRAZIL
HYDRO-THERMAL HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONTRANSITION
STORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITYSTORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITY
Evolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageDecennial Expansion Plan PDE-20210
HYDRO POTENTIALHYDRO POTENTIALTECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE
150/180 GW from 260 GW(100 GW already used)
Hidro
EXPANSION POST-2030EXPANSION POST-2030
• Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the
viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance)
• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs
(increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement
UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL:
•Wind – Solar match
•Wind – Hydro match
• Energy storage in reservoirs
• Saving water and
• Enhancing hydroelectric load following and self-regulation (long term) capabilities
NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS
2) Southeast 2.000 MW
1) Northeast 2.000 MW
operation: 2025 - 2030operation: 2025 - 2030
EPRI SITTING CRITERIAEPRI SITTING CRITERIAGeographic Information SystemsGeographic Information Systems
National Energy Plan 2030
National Energy Plan 2030
• Plant Parameter Plant Parameter EnvelopeEnvelope– RFIs to suppliersRFIs to suppliers– Early Site Permit ReportEarly Site Permit Report
• Brazilian Utility Brazilian Utility RequirementsRequirements– URD/EUR ModelURD/EUR Model
• Business ModelBusiness Model– Public-Private PartnershipPublic-Private Partnership
• Economic and Economic and Financial FeasabilityFinancial Feasability
• Social and Ecomomic Social and Ecomomic ImpactsImpacts
National Energy Plan 2030
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INSPIRED BYINSPIRED BYTVA (EUA)TVA (EUA)
A NEW BUSINESS MODELA NEW BUSINESS MODELRisk sharingRisk sharing
BUILDING NEW NUCLEARBUILDING NEW NUCLEARTHE CHALLENGES AHEADTHE CHALLENGES AHEAD
Public attitudes • Government leadership• Public opinion at the national level• Local level opinion• Fukushima• Building public support• Trust, understanding of risk, and
risk governance• Community benefit
Technology Selection• In operation x construction x design• FOAK x NOAK• Passive x Active Safety
Financing new nuclear • Where will the money come from?• Barriers to raising finance• Alternative approaches
Supply chain and skills • Potential for bottlenecks and delays• Opportunities for Brazilian businesses• Skills
Business Model• Market insertion (commercialization)• Ownership of nuclear power stations• State x Private• National x Foreigner
Leonam GuimarãesLeonam Guimarães