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Nuclear proliferation and geopolitical issues of

Iran and Middle East

Kazuto Suzuki

United Nations

Panel of Experts on Iran

Paris

16 March 2015

Overview

Historical background of Iranian nuclear proliferation

UN sanctions and unilateral sanctions

Iran’s regional influence

Current negotiation and its prospects

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Historical Background

Iran’s nuclear development began in 1950s with help from the United States • Atoms for Peace

• Nationalisation of Anglo-Persian Oil Company by Mossaddegh and Coup d’etat in 1953

• Western interests to keep Pahlavi regime

Number of Iranian studies nuclear technologies in United States • Foreign Minister Zarif and Director of Atomic Energy

Oraganisation of Iran Salehi were educated in the US

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Historical Background

Iran signed (1968) and ratified (1970) Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

Iran has been the subject of Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement (CSA)

Bushehr nuclear power plant constructed in 1975 by German companies

• Took over by Russia in 1995

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Historical Background

1979 Islamic Revolution

• Continued to commit to NPT

1980-88 Iran-Iraq War

• Iraq’s use of Chemical Weapons

• Ayatollah Khomeini refrained from using counter measures

1981 Operation “Opera”

• Israeli attack on Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor, developed by France

• It was believed to be for peaceful purpose but Israeli and Iranian concerned potential for military use

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Historical Background

Late 1980s Contact with A.Q. Khan

• Acquiring enrichment technology

2002 Dissident Iranian group revealed secret sites • Natanz enrichment facilities

• Arak heavy-water reactor, producing plutonium

2003-2006 negotiation with EU3

• Iran agreed for IAEA inspections with Additional Protocol (signed in 2003), but failed to comply

• 2005 Iran offered voluntary suspension of enrichment but rejected by US pressure

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UN Sanctions

UN Security Council Resolution 1737 (2006) • Establish Sanctions Committee

• Target sanctions on enrichment, heavy-water and reprocessing activities

• Designate individuals and entities for asset freeze and travel ban

UNSCR 1747 (2007) • Prohibit export of “any arms” from Iran

• Designate Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) individuals and entities

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UN Sanctions

UNSCR 1803 (2008)

• Reemphasis target sanctions

UNSCR 1929 (2010)

• Establish Panel of Experts

• Prohibit import of heavy weapon to Iran

• Tighter control on nuclear and delivery system development

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Unilateral Sanctions

European Union • 2010 Council Decision (2010/413/CFSP)

Arms embargo

Dual-use items

Restriction on insurances

• 2012 Council Decision (2012/35/CFSP) Oil embargo

• 2012 Council Decision (2012/152/CFSP) Cutting off from SWIFT

Most comprehensive list and wide scoped sanctions

SWIFT ban, Insurance restriction and oil embargo deeply affected Iranian economy

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Unilateral Sanctions

United States • Continuing sanctions from 19792006 Designation of banks

prohibiting to trade in dollars

• 2010 CISADA Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act Prohibition of foreign exchange

• 2012 IFCA Iran Freedom and Counter-proliferation Act Prohibition of financing to Iran by foreign financial institutions

Very complex sanctions mechanism but most powerful Executive Orders and Federal Law – requires agreement

from Congress Extraterritorial application

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Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

Export of Islamic Revolution

• IRGC as guardian and exporter of revolution

Traumatic experience of Iran-Iraq war

• Islamic forces dominated the internal politics

• Theological governing institutions

Sectarian conflicts

• Leader of Shia Islam vs. Sunni Islam

Global “jihad” against United States and Israel

• Terrorism during 1980s and 90s 11

Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

Lebanon • Influence on Hezbollah

Frontline for the fight against Israel

Weak government and ethnic/religious division

• 1983 US Embassy bombing Iran-Hezbollah link to sabotage covert operation

• 2006 War between Hezbollah and Israel Arms export from Iran (Fajr missiles ranging 70-75km)

• Fight against Jihadists Iran’s Secretary of Supreme National Security Council, Ali

Shamkhani visited Beirut and offered “military gift” to Lebanese government

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Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

Syria

• Supporting Assad Regime

Through funding and military support

Oil supply

• Used as weapon factory

Missile development through SSRC (Syria Scientific Studies and Research Centre)

Production of tanks and heavy weapons

• Route of procurement

• Fight against Daesh gave legitimacy to the support

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Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

Yemen

• Reintegration of Yemen in 1990

Sectarian division remained in place

Shia dominant North was richer than Sunni dominant South

• Continued civil war

Difficulties of integrating two societies

• Emergence of Jihadist and Houthis

Al-Qaida of Arabian Peninsula

Houthis, led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi • Emerged as a Shia student group

• Supported by Iran (mainly arms exports) 14

Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

Bahrain

• Sectarian division

Majority of population – Shia

Governing population – Sunni

• Since the “Arab Spring”, upraise against Sunni minority became eminent

• Majority of Shia is influence by Iraqi Shia

• Although Iran has limited influence, it is considered that Iran provide arms to the rebel group

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Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

Iraq

• Arch-enemy of Iran during Saddam’s regime

• Iraq War (2003) and following confusion led Shia government (Al-Maliki and Al-Abadi)

• Emergence of Daesh

Confusion of Iraqi forces – sectarian division

Brutality and rapid expansion of ISIS

• Iran come to fight against Daesh – IRGC Quds Force

Commander Qasem Soleimani became a commander of coalition of Iraqi forces, Peshmerga and Shia militia

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Iran’s Geopolitical

Influence

After the “Arab Spring”, Iran became the central player in the Middle East

Through its sectarian network, Iran extended its influence

As a result, Iran has been successful for exporting its revolutionary ideas

Fight against Daesh justified Iran’s expansion of influence

Although arms exports are prohibited, many countries kept their eyes shut

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P5+1 Negotiation

Since Rouhani came to Presidency, the attitude of Iran has changed significantly

• P5+1 continued to negotiate from 2006 but there was no progress during Ahmadinejad period

Impact of sanctions brought Iran to the table

• Strong popular support for sanctions lifting

• Support by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei

2013 Joint Plan of Action (JPOA)

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P5+1 Negotiation

Progress has made since JPOA but there are still some contentious issues

• Breakout time

Time to require producing a nuclear bomb – US demands for more than one year – reducing stockpile, oxidizing UF6 and reducing number of centrifuges

• Lifting sanctions

Iran demands for lifting all sanctions – difficulties of getting agreement from Congress

Sanctions include arms embargo – allowing Iran to supply arms to Iraq while preventing to Hezbollah?

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Potential Confusion

P5+1 Agreement

• JPOA prohibits enrichment over 5% and no further advances in Natanz, Fordow or Arak

No prohibition of enrichment activities below 5%

• Comprehensive agreement, if any, may also allow certain level of enrichment activities

UN Resolutions

• Prohibited activities by UN resolutions include: “all reprocessing, heavy water-related and enrichment related activities”

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Conclusion

Proliferation challenge

• Iran as a threshold country challenged NPT regime

• Successful case of NPT if negotiation concludes

Iranian regional ambition

• Even without nuclear power, Iran has regional ambition

• Emergence of Jihadists changed the role of Iran

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Conclusion

Changing dynamics of the region • Weak presence of Gulf States including Saudi

Arabia

• Lower demand of oil due to Shale gas revolution

• Sectarian divide complicate geopolitical affairs Enemy of Daesh is friend of Iran?

• Israel against negotiation Crisis in relationship with the United States?

• Apres-”Arab Spring” Destabilisation would be a norm of the region

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