1

Nuclear RenaissanceNuclear Renaissance

Review Homework and Case for Nuclear Review Homework and Case for Nuclear PowerPower

Discuss Important Challenges to Discuss Important Challenges to Overcome in Order to achieve the Full Overcome in Order to achieve the Full Potential of Nuclear Energy in the 21Potential of Nuclear Energy in the 21stst

CenturyCentury

Pressurized Water ReactorPressurized Water Reactor

2

Pressurized Water ReactorPressurized Water Reactor

Homework Homework The The AttaboyAttaboy nuclear plant has a full power nuclear plant has a full power

rating of 1200 rating of 1200 MWeMWe. In 2005, the plant . In 2005, the plant operated 325.5 fulloperated 325.5 full--power days with a 20.5 day power days with a 20.5 day refueling outage. A turbine trip occurred during refueling outage. A turbine trip occurred during the year with 15the year with 15--day inspection and NRC day inspection and NRC review, and followed by a 4review, and followed by a 4--day hold at 50% day hold at 50% power before return to fullpower before return to full--power. Estimate the power. Estimate the Attaboy’sAttaboy’s capacity factor for 2005. Did the capacity factor for 2005. Did the Plant Manager get an Plant Manager get an attaboyattaboy for his plant’s for his plant’s performance or you need to do better? What performance or you need to do better? What was the revenue loss in comparison to the was the revenue loss in comparison to the industry average for 2003 if electricity sold for industry average for 2003 if electricity sold for 6.5 cents/6.5 cents/kwhrkwhr in this region?in this region?

3

Homework (cont’d.)Homework (cont’d.)

Capacity Factor Capacity Factor –– Ratio of actual Ratio of actual annual plant electrical production to annual plant electrical production to the maximum annual production.the maximum annual production.

MP MP –– 365x24x1,200 365x24x1,200 MWeMWe ==10,512,000 MWH10,512,000 MWH

AP AP –– 327.5x24x1,200 327.5x24x1,200 MWeMWe = = 9,432,000 MWH9,432,000 MWH

CF = MP/AP = 0.897CF = MP/AP = 0.897

Nuclear GenerationNuclear Generation

4

Homework (cont’d.)Homework (cont’d.)

Revenue Loss = Unplanned Revenue Loss = Unplanned shutdown hrs. lost x $0.065 x1.2x10shutdown hrs. lost x $0.065 x1.2x1066

KWeKWe

RL = (17x 24) hrs. x 1,200,000 RL = (17x 24) hrs. x 1,200,000 KWeKWex .065($/KWH) = $31,824,000x .065($/KWH) = $31,824,000

Dramatic Increase in OutputDramatic Increase in Output

790,000

576,862

640,440

673,702

727,915

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

1990 1994 1998 1999 2000 2005

Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants

Equal to ∼ 4 new 1,000-MW plants

753,900

5

HomeworkHomeworkRead Eisenhower’s “Atoms For Read Eisenhower’s “Atoms For Peace” speech to the United Peace” speech to the United Nations, Nov., 1953 Nations, Nov., 1953 ((http://http://www.eisenhower.utexas.edu/atwww.eisenhower.utexas.edu/atoms.htmoms.htm))Have we achieved the objectives Have we achieved the objectives

of the “Atoms for Peace” Program of the “Atoms for Peace” Program as set forth by President as set forth by President Eisenhower?Eisenhower?

In 1953, Eisenhower was faced In 1953, Eisenhower was faced with many issues:with many issues:

The scale was unbalancedThe scale was unbalanced–– Deterrence effectivenessDeterrence effectiveness–– Increasing proliferation riskIncreasing proliferation risk–– Emerging energy markets and suppliersEmerging energy markets and suppliers–– Environmental impactEnvironmental impact–– Diminishing U.S. monopolyDiminishing U.S. monopoly

Eisenhower’sEisenhower’s Response:Response:National Security

Environment

Ener

gy

Atoms for Peace

6

New Global Nuclear Era is New Global Nuclear Era is EvolvingEvolving

Nuclear 16 percent of world’s electricityNuclear 16 percent of world’s electricityCritical component of energy security Critical component of energy security strategy for specific countriesstrategy for specific countriesImportant factor for achieving carbon Important factor for achieving carbon emission reductions in developed emission reductions in developed countriescountries

Potential factor in developing countriesPotential factor in developing countries

World Nuclear World Nuclear 441 operating 441 operating

nuclear plants nuclear plants

27 new units under 27 new units under constructionconstruction

2574 terawatt 2574 terawatt hourshours

>21,000 >21,000 MWeMWe

7

Growth In Electric Demand for Growth In Electric Demand for Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

COCO22 Emissions Fell 2/3 As A Result Emissions Fell 2/3 As A Result Of French Nuclear ProgramOf French Nuclear Program

8

New Global Nuclear Era is EvolvingNew Global Nuclear Era is Evolving

U. S. TrendU. S. Trend–– No new nuclear plant orders since late No new nuclear plant orders since late

70’s/existing plants performing better than 70’s/existing plants performing better than ever.ever.

–– Core competencies and U.S. educational Core competencies and U.S. educational infrastructure necessary to support infrastructure necessary to support nuclear energy dwindling; although, nuclear energy dwindling; although, recently on the upswing.recently on the upswing.

New Global Nuclear Era is EvolvingNew Global Nuclear Era is Evolving

U. S. TrendU. S. Trend–– Sufficient legacy of skills for U.S. Sufficient legacy of skills for U.S.

participation in the evolution of the next participation in the evolution of the next world infrastructure in question.world infrastructure in question.

–– U.S. Leadership to promote safe, secure, U.S. Leadership to promote safe, secure, and legitimate use of civilian nuclear and legitimate use of civilian nuclear materials in jeopardy.materials in jeopardy.

9

GLOBAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION GLOBAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

“…“…we need to recognize that the premises underpinning we need to recognize that the premises underpinning some of our nuclear policy decisions are wrong.”some of our nuclear policy decisions are wrong.”

–– Limiting the spread of nuclear weapons Limiting the spread of nuclear weapons --major challenge in the 21st century for major challenge in the 21st century for U.S. and world community. U.S. and world community.

–– To further the use of nuclear power, the To further the use of nuclear power, the civil program must continue civil program must continue notnot to to contribute to the spread of nuclear contribute to the spread of nuclear weapons.weapons.

Senator Pete V. Domenici

GLOBAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION GLOBAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

–– The public must have confidence that The public must have confidence that diversion of civil nuclear materials will not diversion of civil nuclear materials will not take place.take place.

–– Key to successful global nuclear Key to successful global nuclear proliferation management proliferation management --

US Leadership and CollaborationUS Leadership and Collaboration

10

The Challenges Facing The Challenges Facing Nuclear EnergyNuclear Energy

Lower cost in a deregulated electricity Lower cost in a deregulated electricity market (especially substantially lower market (especially substantially lower capital cost)capital cost)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0 Nuclear 1.72

Coal 2.21

Gas 7.51

Oil 8.09

Source: Global Energy Decisions

U.S. Electricity Production Costs(in 2005 cents/kWh)

U.S. Electricity Production CostsU.S. Electricity Production Costs(in 2005 cents/kWh)(in 2005 cents/kWh)

11

The Challenges Facing Nuclear The Challenges Facing Nuclear Energy Energy -- CostCost

Estimate for New Nuclear Generation Estimate for New Nuclear Generation Construction (based on recent Construction (based on recent experience experience -- overnight cost) overnight cost) --$2000/kWe$2000/kWeNuclear Power electrical cost Nuclear Power electrical cost –– 6.7 6.7 cents/ cents/ kWekWe--hr hr

The Challenges Facing Nuclear The Challenges Facing Nuclear Energy Energy –– Cost (cont.)Cost (cont.)

Other Energy Sources Other Energy Sources -- New Coal New Coal –– 4.2 cents/ 4.2 cents/ kWekWe-- hrhr-- CCGT (moderate gas prices, CCGT (moderate gas prices,

$4.42/MCF) $4.42/MCF) ––4.1Cents/kWe4.1Cents/kWe--hr hr

12

The Challenges Facing Nuclear The Challenges Facing Nuclear Energy Energy -- CostCost

How do we get there?How do we get there?MIT Report MIT Report -- The Future of Nuclear The Future of Nuclear Power Power –– increase nuclear production increase nuclear production nearly threenearly three--fold over next fifty years fold over next fifty years (366 (366 GWeGWe to1000GWe) to1000GWe) (http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/)(http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/)

How do we get there? (cont)How do we get there? (cont)

1. 1. Reduce Construction Cost (25%) Reduce Construction Cost (25%) ––5.5 cents/ 5.5 cents/ kWekWe--hr (Advanced Designs hr (Advanced Designs estimate overnight cost of estimate overnight cost of <$1500/kWe for FOAK, <$1000/kWe <$1500/kWe for FOAK, <$1000/kWe for NOAK)for NOAK)

2. Reduce construction time 5 to 4 2. Reduce construction time 5 to 4 years years –– 5.3 cents/ 5.3 cents/ kWekWe--hrhr

13

The Challenges Facing Nuclear The Challenges Facing Nuclear Energy Energy -- CostCost

3. Reduce O&M cost to 13 mills/ 3. Reduce O&M cost to 13 mills/ kWekWe--hr hr –– 5.1 cents per 5.1 cents per kWekWe--hrhr

4. Reduce the cost of capital to 4. Reduce the cost of capital to coal/gas coal/gas –– 4.2 cents per 4.2 cents per KWeKWe--hrhr

The Challenges Facing The Challenges Facing Nuclear EnergyNuclear Energy

Assurance of safety in global markets and Assurance of safety in global markets and sustained public confidencesustained public confidence

14

Number of Unusual Events Reported Number of Unusual Events Reported to NRCto NRC (1989(1989--2002)2002)

151170

135

10392

66 63

4026 34

18 1413

197

020406080

100120140160180200

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Note: A Notification of Unusual Event for power and non-power reactor licensees is a condition involving potential degradation of the level of plant safety that does not represent an immediate threat to public health and safety. Source: NRC

The Challenges Facing The Challenges Facing Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy -- SafetySafety

Must maintain highest standards for Must maintain highest standards for safety both in the U.S. and abroadsafety both in the U.S. and abroad

World Association of Nuclear Operators World Association of Nuclear Operators –– world equivalent of INPOworld equivalent of INPO

15

The Challenges Facing The Challenges Facing Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy -- SafetySafety

A nuclear accident anywhere is a public A nuclear accident anywhere is a public relations nightmare everywhererelations nightmare everywhere

US Leadership and international US Leadership and international collaboration a must.collaboration a must.

Advanced design must employ passive Advanced design must employ passive safety features (walksafety features (walk--away systems)away systems)

PWR Pressure VesselPWR Pressure Vessel

16

DavisDavis--Bessie IncidentBessie Incident

DavisDavis--Bessie Reactor HeadBessie Reactor Head

17

The Challenges Facing The Challenges Facing Nuclear EnergyNuclear Energy

Get on with the nuclear waste disposal Get on with the nuclear waste disposal solution solution Must open the Federal Repository at Must open the Federal Repository at Yucca Mountain in the 2010 timeframe Yucca Mountain in the 2010 timeframe (http://(http://www.ocrwm.doe.gov/ymp/index.shtmlwww.ocrwm.doe.gov/ymp/index.shtml))Provide assurance to the public that Provide assurance to the public that transportation of nuclear waste can be transportation of nuclear waste can be done safelydone safely

Yucca Mountain is located on federal land in a remote area of Nye County in southern Nevada, about 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada.

18

YUCCA MOUNTAIN

Spent Nuclear Fuel

19

47,023.447,023.4TotalTotal

24.224.2HighHigh--Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor

30,921.630,921.6PressurizedPressurized--Water ReactorWater Reactor

16,707.616,707.6BoilingBoiling--Water ReactorWater Reactor

Metric Metric TonnesTonnesof Uranium of Uranium (MTU)(MTU)

US SNF Discharged, 1968US SNF Discharged, 1968--1998 1998

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/spent_fuel/ussnfdata.html

High-level Waste – SRS, Hanford, others

20

Waste packages, drip shields, and inverts are the three major engineered barriers in the repository design.

Repository Tunnel Layout – Natural Barriers

21

Challenges for Nuclear Energy Challenges for Nuclear Energy --Transportation of RadioactiveTransportation of Radioactive MaterialsMaterials

What are we shipping in the U.S.?What are we shipping in the U.S.?

Radioisotopes for the medical communityRadioisotopes for the medical communityMaterials for research and defenseMaterials for research and defenseNuclear fuel assembliesNuclear fuel assembliesUranium oreUranium oreRadioactive waste Radioactive waste

How much are we shipping?How much are we shipping?

All hazardous shipmentsAll hazardous shipments300 million/year300 million/year

All radioactive shipmentsAll radioactive shipments3 million/year3 million/year

Department of EnergyDepartment of Energy5,000/year (radioactive)5,000/year (radioactive)

22

How is DOE shipping?How is DOE shipping?

Transportation Typical Shipments/YearTransportation Typical Shipments/YearTruckTruck 2,7002,700AirplaneAirplane 2,0002,000TrainTrain 300300

TotalTotal 5,0005,000

(500 from SRS)(500 from SRS)

Type A PackagingType A Packaging

ModerateModerateradioactivityradioactivity

Medical,Medical,Pharmaceuticals,Pharmaceuticals,etc.etc.

23

Type B PackagingType B Packaging

Higher levels ofHigher levels ofradioactivityradioactivity

Small drums orSmall drums orlarge caskslarge casks

Spent fuel, cobaltSpent fuel, cobaltsources, etc.sources, etc.

24

What might happen to the What might happen to the material?material?

ImpactImpact

FireFire

FloodingFlooding

How do we make sure the How do we make sure the containers do their job?containers do their job?

Drop TestDrop Test

30 feet onto30 feet ontounyielding surfaceunyielding surface

25

Fire TestFire Test

1,475 1,475 ooFF forfor30 minutes30 minutes

Immersion TestImmersion TestUnder 50 feet of waterUnder 50 feet of water

26

From the beginning of the From the beginning of the nuclear age to now, there nuclear age to now, there

have been millions of have been millions of radioactive material shipments radioactive material shipments

around the world. around the world. Not oneNot onehas ever resulted in death or has ever resulted in death or

serious injury from the serious injury from the radioactive material.radioactive material.

27

But what about….But what about….September 11, 2001September 11, 2001

Ongoing Government InitiativesOngoing Government Initiatives

Escorts and guardsEscorts and guards

Package and cask designsPackage and cask designs

Special transportersSpecial transporters

HighHigh--tech systems for trackingtech systems for tracking

28

29

Nuclear Power 2010Nuclear Power 2010Formalize a National Nuclear Formalize a National Nuclear

Energy StrategyEnergy StrategyStart construction of nuclear Start construction of nuclear

reactor(sreactor(s) in U.S. by 2010) in U.S. by 2010* Early Site * Early Site PremitPremit (ESP) (ESP) --Dominion Energy, Dominion Energy, ExcelonExcelon, and , and Entergy. (SRS Entergy. (SRS –– Federal site)Federal site)* Combined Construction * Combined Construction an Operating an Operating * Cost incentives and sharing * Cost incentives and sharing ––EPACT 2005EPACT 2005

In Conclusion ...In Conclusion ...Nuclear energy has a vital role to Nuclear energy has a vital role to play in satisfying future global play in satisfying future global energy and environmental goalsenergy and environmental goalsAdvance designs (Gen. IV) Advance designs (Gen. IV) --objectivesobjectives-- Highly economicalHighly economical-- ProliferationProliferation-- resistant resistant -- Enhanced safetyEnhanced safety-- Minimize wasteMinimize waste-- Capability of hydrogen productionCapability of hydrogen production

30

Homework Homework –– Due 10/12/06Due 10/12/06

The capacity of the Federal Repository at Yucca The capacity of the Federal Repository at Yucca Mountain is 70,000 MTU (licensing limit). Mountain is 70,000 MTU (licensing limit). Estimate how soon the US will need another Estimate how soon the US will need another repository if the current generation of SNF repository if the current generation of SNF remains the same as 2002? If the licensing limit remains the same as 2002? If the licensing limit is extended to the technical limit (120,000 MTU), is extended to the technical limit (120,000 MTU), when will a second repository be needed? when will a second repository be needed? Estimate the total equivalent volume of SNF Estimate the total equivalent volume of SNF generated in commercial nuclear reactors from generated in commercial nuclear reactors from 19681968--2002 ( Density of U 2002 ( Density of U –– 19.119.1 g/cmg/cm3)3) ..

Homework Homework –– 10/12/06 (Cont’d.)10/12/06 (Cont’d.)

The MIT Report recommends increasing the The MIT Report recommends increasing the nuclear generation to 1000 nuclear generation to 1000 GWeGWe over the next over the next fifty years from the current capacity of 366 fifty years from the current capacity of 366 GWeGWe. . Based on current estimates of conventional Based on current estimates of conventional uranium resources (OECD Red Book), is this uranium resources (OECD Red Book), is this possible assuming uranium consumption of possible assuming uranium consumption of 226.5 MTU/226.5 MTU/GWeGWe--yr and a 50 operating life for yr and a 50 operating life for the new plants? Assume current plants operate the new plants? Assume current plants operate on the average for another 20 years. on the average for another 20 years.

31

Lecture 1Lecture 1Energy Resources and UsesEnergy Resources and Uses

(HOMEWORK)(HOMEWORK)EMCH 561NEMCH 561N

Dr. William A. SummersDr. William A. Summers

Assigned: August 24, 2006Assigned: August 24, 2006Due: September 14, 2006Due: September 14, 2006

Remaining Recoverable World Fossil Remaining Recoverable World Fossil Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources

Energy Content (Quads)

U.S. WorldOil (incl. NGL) 1108 15,190Natural Gas 1054 13,649Coal* 6767 25,022Unconventional* Large Large

(Oil shale, tar sands, etc.)

*Large environmental impact*Large environmental impact Source:Source: U.S. EIAU.S. EIAwww.eia.doe.govwww.eia.doe.govData as of 1/1/96Data as of 1/1/96

32

Homework Assignment Homework Assignment 1. Define a “Quad” of energy and calculate how many 1000

MWe power plants operating at 90% capacity factor are required to produce 1 Quad per year of electricity.

2. Based on projections by the DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA), determine the projected annual usage of Oil, NG and Coal for the year 2025 for the U.S. and the world total. Present the results in Quad per year. Assume this represents the “average” use over the next several decades beginning in 2006.

3. Determine the “remaining recoverable resources” for each fuel for both U.S. and world total (see this lecture)

4. Calculate the time to exhaust the resource based on the average usage determined above.