nuclear worldwide: where we stand 3 years after fukushima · nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3...

Second Roland Berger study on the global nuclear market

March 2014

Nuclear worldwide: Where we stand 3 years after Fukushima

2 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx

Roland Berger study on the 2030-2050 global nuclear market – Lessons learned

> The global nuclear market continues to grow, driven mainly by Russia and China

> Since Fukushima (March 2011) and despite decisions in some countries to phase out nuclear energy in the short or long term

– About 70 reactors are currently under construction around the world in 2014, half of them in China and Russia

– Installed base decreased by only 9 units: +13 new operations, +2 restarts and -24 shutdown, of which 16 were driven by the disaster and 8 were at the end of their operating lifecycles

> The Roland Berger study shows that global nuclear installed capacity could increase 26% by 2030 in a low scenario (from 435 units today to 489 units, or 372 GW vs. 470 GW)

> Roland Berger estimates that of 581 nuclear projects planned or announced and assuming highly favorable circumstances, only 123 to 224 are likely to materialize

> The nuclear market is at a crossroads: By 2030, 70% of nuclear reactors will be between 40 and 60 years old, and governments will have to decide whether to renew or make a transition

– Regarding nuclear power's lifecycle (decisions, construction, commissioning), the 2015-2030 period is a critical time for the replacement market

– Successful players will have current experience in the construction of new plants, suitable product portfolios and strong financial backing

> The Roland Berger study shows that in 2050, assuming a conservative case, nuclear's share of global electricity capacity may be lower than in 2030 (by approx. 1%). However, installed capacity may increase by 35 GW. These assumptions depend on both the replacement rates in major nuclear countries (France, Russia and possibly the United States) and nuclear development by new entrants (Middle East or Asian countries)

3 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Contents Page

A. Overview of the NPP base as of 2014 and main developments since 2011 4

B. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2030 15

C. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2050 20


A. Overview of the NPP base as of 2014 and main developments since 2011


Public forecasts on nuclear capacity (IAEA) have been revised down-ward in the recent past, but still indicate growth in installed capacity

Approach used – Nuclear capacity in GWe

Source: IAEA, Roland Berger analysis

Key facts

> Public estimates were revised downward following the Fukushima accident with a scenario between 546 GWe to 803 GWe adjusted down-ward to a range of 501 GWe to 746 GWe

> IAEA continued to lower its estimates over the past two years – 722 GW in a high scenario and 435 in a low scenario

> However, nuclear is still expected to grow from its current level

> In 2011, RB estimated global nuclear generating capacity would grow to 688 GWe by 2030

RB estimates pre-Fukushima 2011

546 501435

257245

287

372

803

Installed base

2014

IAEA Vision 2030

post-Fukushima 2011

746

IAEA Vision 2030

pre-Fukushima 2010

722

IAEA Vision

2030 as of 2013

688

Additional capacity vs. low scenario (high perspective)

Low scenario

Additional

capacity

by 2030

(GW)

431 374 340

174 129 63

High

Low


Although the installed base of operating reactors has decreased since Fukushima, construction of 18 new reactors has started

2413

2014

435

Shutdown Restart

2

New operating

plants

2011

444 13 7218

2014 Reactors

going online

Construction

suspended

2

New reactors

in construction

2011

691)

> Comments:

– 13 projects under construction went online, including anexperimental reactor in China (not taken into account in the2011 RB view)

– 2 reactors restarted after long-term shutdown (Canada)

– 24 shut down, of which 22 are permanent shutdowns

> Comments:

– 54 reactors still under construction during 2011-2014

– 18 projects planned in 2011 started construction phase(including the CAREM prototype in Argentina)

– Construction of two reactors was halted (Bulgaria)

– 13 reactors went online, mainly in China

Operating Under construction

Nuclear fleet evolution [no. of reactors]

Source: WNA, PRIS, Roland Berger analysis

1) Includes the Chinese Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) not taken into account in 2011


We revised our assumptions on planned and announced projects – Decrease in projects considered likely depending on scenario (1/2)

New nuclear reactors considered likely by 2030 [no. of reactors] – RB's view


19

19

123

243

35

Additional likely

from new projects

New construction

considered likely in 2011

Revised position

- unlikely to likely

-18 -139

Out of new build/

under construction

Scope of reactors taken

into account in 2014

-90

54

224

Revised position

- likely to unlikely

High Low

High scenario

Low scenario


We revised our assumptions on planned and announced projects – Decrease in projects considered likely depending on scenario (2/2)


Reactors (re)stated as "likely"

> 9 projects expected to become operational in China

by 2030 (of which 4 additional units in Fanchenggang

and 2 in Taishan)

> Projects Barakah 3 & 4 expected to be added soon to

current units 1 and 2 under construction in the UAE

> Four projects expected to become operational in

South Korea by 2025 (Shin Hanul 3 & 4, Shin Kori 7

& 8)

> Planned projects in Turkey (Akkuyu and Sinop) are

being seriously considered

> Additional projects mainly in Bangladesh, India,

Egypt, Netherlands and the UK

Reactors not "likely" anymore

> No new nuclear reactors in Italy (5 units)

> No new nuclear reactors in Switzerland (3 projects cancelled)

> Unlikely Sellafield 1 & 2 will be developed in the UK

> Unlikely renewal at Darlington 1 & 2 in Canada

> Unlikely renewal of some US reactors

> Suspension of Fukushima I-7&8 in Japan

> Several projects reconsidered in India (18)

New nuclear reactors considered likely by 2030 [no. of reactors] – RB's view


Nuclear plants

Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis

> 435 operating reactors in

31 countries

> 372 GWe net capacity

> 61% of reactors (68% of

capacity) located in the US,

Western Europe and Japan

> Average reactor age: 27 years

World map of nuclear installed base as of February 2014

Key figures

Nuclear installed base is mainly concentrated in a few countries (1/2)


1

111

2

22

2

22

34

4

45

66

7

79

1015

16

192121

23

3348

58

Armenia

Netherlands

Slovenia Iran

Argentina

Romania Mexico

South Africa

Brazil

Bulgaria

Pakistan Slovak Republic

Hungary

Finland Switzerland

Czech Republic

Taiwan Belgium

Spain

Germany Sweden

Ukraine

United Kingdom

Canada

India Mainland China

Republic of Korea

Russian Federation Japan

France

United States 100

COUNTRIES WITH MAJOR NUCLEAR POWER

COUNTRIES WITH LESS NUCLEAR POWER

Country breakdown of installed base [no. of units, MWe net]

∑ = 435 reactors

372 GWe


Nuclear installed base is mainly concentrated in a few countries (2/2)

(98,560)

(63,130)

(16,860)

(5,308)

(13,500)

(9,231)

(13,107)

(9,408)

(12,068)

(7,114)

(5,927)

(5,028)

(3,804)

(3,308)

(2,752)

(1,889)

(725)

(1,884)

(1,816)

(1,906)

(1,860)

(1,530)

(1,300)

(935)

(915)

(688)

(482)

(375)

(42,388)

(23,643)

(20,739)


Age of nuclear power plants in operation worldwide as of 2014 [no. of units]

Source: WNA, IAEA, Roland Berger analysis

557

1012

1517

9

12101111

22

8

19

26

40

25

202019

9

54

10

755

332

8

2

9

32

634

1

56433

44

Years

43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 45

Average age: 27 years Operating experience: 12,114 years

322 plants will be between 40 and 59 years old by 2030 (280 GW) – Topic of extending operation to be addressed

10 plants will be over 60 years old by 2030

(5 GW) – likely to be shut down

With a current average age of 27 years, more than 70% of the existing installed base will be between 40 and 59 years old by 2030


1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

5

5

6

10

France

Finland

Brazil

Belarus

United Arab Emirates

Ukraine

Slovak Republic

Pakistan

Japan

Taiwan

Argentina

United States

Republic of Korea

India

Russian Federation

Mainland China 28

Country breakdown of the NPPs under construction [no. of units, MWe net]

Comments

> Most of the NPPs under construction are

located in East Asia and Eastern

Europe:

– China (28 units) and Russia (10

units) have the lion's share

– Very few projects in mature developed

countries

> All NPPs under construction should be

in operation by 2020

∑ = 72 reactors 70 GWe


70 GW of nuclear capacity is under construction around the world, half of this in China and Russia


Country breakdown of NPPs planned or announced [no. of units]

2

2

2

2

4

6

7

14

16

2

4

2

2

8

6

11

20

2

18

3

20

16

9

14

Saudi Arabia

Republic of Korea

United Kingdom

India 59

Russian Federation 68

26

Mainland China

Finland

Vietnam

Czech Republic

Ukraine

214 84

56


We used public data to identify over 581 proposed projects – Only 123 to 224 considered as "likely" to be operating by 2030 (1/2)

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

6

6

1

2

1

1

3

2

2

2

12

2

2

6

2

3

2

2

5

Turkey

United States 30

Bulgaria

Bangladesh

Iran

Slovak Republic

Belarus

United Arab Emirates

Hungary

Romania

Proposed

RB high

RB low

∑ RB view low = 123 reactors (135 GWe)

∑ RB view high =

224 reactors (255 GWe)

∑ Public data =

581 reactors (more1) than 600 GWe)

1) Some projects did not report net capacity


Country breakdown of the NPPs planned or announced [no. of units]

0

Slovenia 1 1

0

Mexico 8 0

0

Canada 5 0

0

Malaysia 4 0

0

Algeria 2 0

0

Egypt 8

4 0

South Africa 6

2 0

Kazakhstan 3 0

0

Armenia 1 1

0

Indonesia 4

0


We used public data to identify over 581 proposed projects – Only 123 to 224 considered as "likely" to be operating by 2030 (2/2)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

2

0

2

1

2

1

6

1

4

4

3

5

2

Jordan

Albania

Japan 9 9

Brazil 8

Argentina

Poland

Chile

Pakistan 8

6

Thailand

Netherlands

RB low

RB high

Proposed

1) Some projects did not report net capacity

∑ RB view low = 123 reactors (135 GWe)

∑ RB view high =

224 reactors (255 GWe)

∑ Public data =

581 reactors (more1) than 600 GWe)


B. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2030


We estimate global installed nuclear capacity to grow from 372 GWe to between 470 GWe and 637 GWe from 2014 to 2030

North America

Source: IAEA , Roland Berger analysis

Latin America

Western Europe Eastern Europe East Asia

98

239

168

268

147

Middle East and

Southern Asia

Africa

68 89109 124 117

68 79 7292104

2 5 10 2 9 25 2758 39 59

6 7 15 6 10

-18/+25 -25/-1

NPP development scenarios to 2030 [2014-2030, GWe]

372435

722

470

637

TOTAL WORLD

94118

143 101 119

-49/+7 -28/-8 +11/+36 +4/+24 +49/+170 +70/+141

+1/+9 +0/+4 +3/+8 +0/+7

+2/+33 +14/+34

+63/+350 +98/+265

RB high 2030 RB low 2030 Public high Public low 2030 Feb 2014


Japan and China represent 40% of the total deviation between the low and high scenarios with a gap of approx. 35 GW between the two

Countries with significant variation between RB estimates low-high [2030, GWe]

Japan China

Comments

> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for extending the operating life of the installed base and completion of planned projects

– We estimate the operation extension of existing plants to 60 years could be impacted if safety inspections produce negative results

– Planned NPPs could be scrapped due to a political shift toward less nuclear (driven by strong public opinion)

Comments

42

18

16

-36 GW

RB high 2030

57

RB low 2030

3

21

Operating as of Feb 2014

New construction

Source: World Nuclear Association, Roland Berger

> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for new plants likely to be operational by 2030

– Among potential operational starts by 2030, we estimate that NPP sites with existing plants are more likely to be extended with additional units than other sites being built from the ground up in a high perspective – this results in 33 GW additional new starts vs. the low case

123

89

1717

RB low 2030

106

RB high 2030

-33 GW

140

New construction



Sensitivities for US mainly driven by lifetime extension of installed base, whereas Russia has been challenged on new construction

Countries with significant variation between RB low and high estimates [2030, GWe]

United States Russia

Comments

> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for extending the operational life of the installed base and completing planned projects

– We estimate the operational life extension of existing plants to 60 years can be implemented for 18 plants that have not yet received license extension, which means a difference of approx. 13 GW

– Planned NPPs are not considered in a low scenario in terms of a strong incentive to develop gas, which means a difference of approx. 6 GW

Comments

9481

13

7

-20 GW

RB high 2030

108

RB low 2030

88


New construction

Source: World Nuclear Association, Roland Berger

> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for new constructions likely to be operational by 2030

– We estimate that the 3rd and 4th blocks of Leningrad 2 will be completed 5 years later

– Only 2 blocks of Kursk 2 will be built by 2030

– Nizhniy Novgorod is not planned in the low scenario

13 13

33

21

RB low 2030

34

RB high 2030

-13 GW

46

New construction



C. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2050


20

Global nuclear capacity development up to 2050 will mainly depend on renewal in mature countries and unannounced new projects

Reactors currently operating

Currently planned or announced reactors – in operation before 2050

Reactors currently under construction

Reactors delayed to after 2030

Additional nuclear capacity resulting from

> Installed base

– Additional extension of the current installed base's

operational life (40/60/80 years)

– Replacement of reactors scheduled to be shutdown

> New construction projects

– Extension of existing nuclear sites

– New projects/new plants/new nuclear sites

GWe

2014 2030 2050

> 2 scenarios

– Low scenario

– High scenario

1

2

Source: Roland Berger analysis

Development of nuclear installed capacity to 2050 [GWe]


We used both general trends and drivers at country level to assess nuclear development up to 2050

General questions Drivers at country level

Key questions to be addressed when preparing scenarios to 2050

> Do we believe in total/partial renewal of existing nuclear capacities?

> What can we assume regarding extending operational life?

Source: Roland Berger analysis

Current mature nuclear countries

Entrants/ emerging nuclear countries

Newcomers/ greenfield

> Do we believe in further expansion of the nuclear installed base?

> What potential developments are there in nuclear technology and which of these could support the renaissance of nuclear power?

> Do we see new entrants in developing regions such as Africa or Southeast Asia?

Transversal issue

1

2

3

4

5

Ambition to maintain/develop nuclear

Evolution of electricity demand forecast up to 2050 in each country – taking into account current energy savings trends

Alternatives to nuclear power

Position regarding extending operational life

Trade-off between developing accessible energy, environmental sustainability and energy security


We estimate global installed nuclear power generating capacity between 504 GWe & 1020 GWe by 2050, depending on the scenario

8,922 GW

5.2%

World total

of installed

generating

capacity1)

% nuclear

504470

2050 2030

0.4% growth/year

12,280 GW

4.1%

8,922 GW

7.1%

World total

of installed

generating

capacity1)

% nuclear

637

1,020

2.4% growth/year

2050 2030

12,280 GW

8.3%

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Roland Berger analysis

1) IEA data for 2030 – For 2050, RB assumption based on IEA data to 2035 (additional capacity p.a. over 2030-35 maintained up to 2050)

Nuclear installed base capacity from 2030 to 2050 [GWe]

Low scenario High scenario


Beyond 2030, there might be a huge market for nuclear replacement, mainly driven by the US, France and Japan

Number of reactors to be potentially renewed 2030-2050 – Top 10 countries

Comments

> The Unites States will see 90% of their

capacity up for renewal by 2050

> France could represent a huge market

for NPP replacement with 47 units

expected to be ready for renewal by

2050

> Japan's future energy policy is still

unclear, but possibly 18 to 28 reactors

could be replaced between 2030-2050

(depending on operating life extension)

> Russia and Ukraine each could see 11

units being renewed 2030-2050

4

4

7

8

10

11

11

28

47

91

4

3

7

8

8

11

11

18

47

77United States

Russian Federation

Japan

France

Czech Republic

Finland

Sweden

Republic of Korea

Canada

Ukraine

RB low

RB high (60 years) = assumed lifetime

(60 years) (< 60 years in some case)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(40 years)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(50 years)

(60 years)

(60 years)

(45-55 years)

(45-55 years)

(45-55 years)

(45-55 years)

(60 years)

(40 years in some cases)


Our low estimate is less pessimistic than IAEA – Main differences are found in Western Europe and Middle East/South Asia

North America

Source: IAEA , Roland Berger analysis

Latin America

Western Europe Eastern Europe East Asia

98

203

412 432

194

Middle East and South

Asia

Africa

3368

138 137 117 68 79 7091

138

2 1042

7 26 25 47 66

194 142

6 1359

18 25

-55/+44 -47/+15

NPP development scenarios by 2050 [2014-2050, GWe]

372 440 504

1,020 1,113

TOTAL WORLD

64 72

134 163 119

-84/+20 -59/+21 +11/+70 +2/+23 +96/+334 +105/+304

+7/+53 +12/+19 +8/+40 +5/+24

+22/+117 +26/+169

+68/+741 +132/+648

RB low 2050 RB high 2050 Public data high 2030 Feb 2014 Public data low 2030

nuclear worldwide: where we stand 3 years after fukushima · nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3...

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