nuclear’s contribution to a 2050 low carbon energy system

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Nuclear’s Contribution to a 2050 Low Carbon Energy System

Presentation To The All Party Parliamentary Nuclear Energy Group 19th October 2015

Mike Middleton – Energy Technologies Institute


Introduction to the ETI organisation

.

• The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government

Delivering...

• Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy

• Shared risk ETI programme associate

ETI members


What does the ETI do?

System level strategic planning

Technology development & demonstration

Delivering knowledge &

innovation


Typical ESME Outputs

EnergySystemModellingEnvironment


2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mt C

O2/y

ear

DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4

International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2

Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.

Typical ETI Transition Scenario

Net UK CO2 Emissions


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

GW

DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4

Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors

Notes:•Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW)•Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup

Typical Scenario

Installed Electrical Generation Capacity


Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System?

Small Nuclear Large Nuclear

For SMRs to be deployed in UK:• technology development to be

completed• range of approvals and consents to

be secured• sufficient public acceptance of

technology deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives

• deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendorsoutilities and investorso consumers & taxpayers

Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholders

FID – Final Investment Decision


Containment structure

Reactor vessel

Turbine

Condenser

Generator

Steam GeneratorControl rods

Single Revenue Stream Multiple Revenue Streams

1. BaseloadElectricity

1. BaseloadElectricity

2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing

Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment 3. Heat Recovery To Energise District

Heating Systems

Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK?

Containment structure

Reactor vessel

Turbine

Condenser

Generator

Steam GeneratorControl rods


Heat demand variability in 2010 – Unattractive to electrify it all

Hea

t / E

lect

ricity

(G

W)

0

50

100

150

250

200

Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10

HeatElectricity

Design pointfor a GB heat delivery system

Design pointfor a GB electricity delivery system

GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildingsR. Sansom, Imperial College

Heat demand

Electricity demand

Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging


ETI Projects Delivered

Power Plant Siting Study (PPSS)

• Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints

• Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS

• Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies

• Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear

• Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Atkins for ETI following

competitive open procurement process

System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies (ANT)• Develop a high level functional requirement

specification for a “black box” power plant for– baseload electricity– heat to energise district heating systems, and– further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing

• Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors

• Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following

competitive open procurement process• Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to

determine attractiveness of such an SMR “black box” power plant to the UK low carbon energy system


Data From The ETI Power Plant Siting Study

Capacity constraints applied in ESME


Data Applied Within ESME From ANT Project

Project data used to create ESME data file for SMRs:• CAPEX: Base case £4500/kW for N’th Of A Kind

– Uplift for CHP: £200/kWe• OPEX: £105/kWe (by 2050)• First Operations Date: Base Case 2030• Construction Period: 3yrs• Build Out Rate: (from first operations) 400MWe/yr for 10 years, then

1.2 GWe/yr• Regional site capacity: 21 GWe total distributed across England and Wales• Power downrate during CHP heat take off: 20%

• The ANT project has been independent of reactor vendors• the report has been peer reviewed• There are uncertainties regarding the future costs and timescales for UK SMR deployment


Updated ESME Baseline – Capacity with35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available

2050 Nuclear Capacity• 1 GWe legacy (SZB)• 35 GWe Gen III+• 16 GWe CHP SMRs

SMR deployment capacity influenced by:• Speed to first UK SMR operations • Capital cost (£/kWe)


The Case For CHP SMRs


Impact On Cost Of System Transition - SMRs

Abatement Cost• Energy system costs would be incurred even if no carbon targets• Abatement cost is additional cost for low-carbon solution to given set of demands

ESMEv3.4 Baseline (with District Heating available but without SMRs deployed)• Annual abatement cost by 2050 - £58.24 Bn/yr• Equivalent to 1.55% of GDP

Key messages from table below:• RHS – reduction in system cost where CHP SMRs energise District Heat networks• LHS – significantly higher system cost without District Heating • Scenario – UK SMR first plant starting operations in 2030 with CAPEX of £4500/kWe

Annual Cost Of Abatement in 2050 (£bn/year) and as % of GDP

Approach to decarbonising heat WITHOUT District Heating WITH District Heating

Abatement Cost/year £64.7 Bn £54.6 BnAbatement as % of GDP 1.72% 1.45%


ETI’s Nuclear Insights - Key Messages


For more information about the ETI visit www.eti.co.uk

For the latest ETI news and announcements email [email protected]

The ETI can also be followed on Twitter @the_ETI

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For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on 01509 202020.

nuclear’s contribution to a 2050 low carbon energy system

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