nukkad 1st oct 2021 - jordbrukare.com
TRANSCRIPT
nukkad 1st Oct 2021Market movements:
One of the important news items that I came across recently was that Nestle India Ltd. increased prices across its product portfolio by 1-3% as commodities like milk and coffee continue to turn costlier. Globally, costs of commodities like coffee, milk and packaging have seen a 4-5% upside.
In nukkad, we discussed the increasing global commodity prices and different indicators from the Indian market indicating recovery and increasing demand. Rising demand coupled with other macro indicators like oil prices, feed prices and increasing other input costs is a perfect cocktail for a hiked consumer price.
Editor's quote: Given the current dairy commodity price rise, it is becoming clearer that the Indian market is not as insulated as it expects itself to be with tariff barriers in place.
Oil: According to the market commentators, global demand for crude oil has increased consistently with reduced pandemic restrictions and improving vaccination rates. While on the supply side, (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC+ alliance has been slow in easing output restrictions, contributing to the tightened supply in the market.
As per both IEA and OPEC, global demand is expected to outpace supply, due to which international oil prices will likely remain firm in the near to mid-term. A simultaneous rally in natural gas is also likely to drive demand for alternate fuels.
Sensex: Equity benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 410 points or 0.68% on Tuesday due to heavy selling in I.T., financials, and telecom stocks in line with weak global trends as U.S. bond yields rebounded. After plunging over 1,032 points during the session, the 30-share BSE barometer pared some losses to end 410.28 points or 0.68% lower at 59,667.60.
Feed: The International Grains Council (IGC) has released its monthly supply and demand report, projecting a six million-tonne increase in total global grain production at 2.289 billion tonnes in 2021-22.
Global grain ending stocks for 2021-22 was increased to 598.8 million tonnes, a change of 1.6% from the IGC’s August report. That change consisted of a seven million-tonne increase in global corn production, offset by one million-tonne decrease in world wheat output. Soybean production was forecast to hold steady at 380 million.
The report has been received positively by the market and is evident from the recent price movements. NCDEX Soy shredded more than 2000 USD in the last week.
bazaar
Source: Date: Sept 28, 2021 Ncdex Live Soy Bean Prices | Ncdex Soy Bean Live Charts | Ncdex Soy Bean Live Rates | Free Ncdex Soy Bean Tips | NCDEX Live
market watchbazaar
Global Supply AU: July milk production in Australia was weaker than expected to start the 2021-2022 milk season. However, industry sources suggest plentiful rain, good soil moisture levels and good pasture growth may help support an increase in Australian milk output for the upcoming months.
CN: There have been consistent increases in Chinese dairy production, and market commentators assess China's growing dairy product inventory. EU: Milk deliveries across Europe continue their seasonal decline. Besides the natural wind-down of the milking season, the high feed costs place financial pressures on farmers. In the first half of the year, dairy farmers have culled cows at a higher rate than in 2020. In addition, contacts suggest farmers are retiring without the next generation taking over the farm.
IN: Amul's Milk procurement has increased by 171% in the last 11 years. Thus, the price paid to milk producers has also increased by 136%.
NZ: The New Zealand 2021-2022 milk season is still taking shape, but so far, so good, according to industry contacts. Adequate soil moisture and pasture growth are supportive of solid milk yields. Calving is nearing completion, and initial projections of milk output are favourable. Industry weather watchers are keeping an eye on the potential development of a La Nina event this year. This could lead to warmer, drier conditions in the lead up to the southern hemisphere summer.
UK: Arla has announced it will increase its October milk price by 0.32ppl on the back of increased prices for European dairy commodities.
US: According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US just suffered its hottest summer ever. Soaring temperatures weighed on milk yields and tightened supplies as heat stress accumulated late in the summer and into September.
Global Demand
GDIP: Global price assessment (not a forecast) Oct: Butterfat $5,750, SNF $2,714 Nov: Butterfat $5,769, SNF $2,716 Dec: Butterfat $5,839, SNF $2,725 Jan: Butterfat $5,792, SNF $2,758
EU: Key destination for EU exports of cheeses from Jan.-July 2021: USA (+17%), Switzerland (+6%), Ukraine (+10%), Saudi Arabia (+5%), China (+71%), Australia (+5%) and Canada (+21%)
CN: China imports increased for all dairy categories in first 7 months of 2021: butter(oil) (+23%), cheese (+44%), SMP (+45%), WMP (+34%), wheypowder (+37%), casein(ate)s (+51%), condensed (+64%) and lactose (+10%);
MY: Malaysia looks to reduce milk imports through the ‘Dairy Valley’ project. Malaysia’s Johor State Government and the East Coast Economic Region Development Council (ECERDC) have signed a collaboration agreement to develop the Jemaluang Dairy Valley (JDV) project as part of the overall strategy in turning the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) into the ‘Dairy Valley’ of Malaysia.
balance sheet
Mail Cheese Producers 2017 -2021
GDT: During the 292nd event the index went up 1.0%, this was the third successive increase. WMP rose 2.2% to an average of US$3,777/t, with increases across all contracts. SMP grew 0.9% to average US$3,302/t. Fats saw a drop with butter losing 1.8% to average at US$4,857/t, with a drop recorded across all contracts. AMF trimmed 0.1% to average US$5,962/t with mixed contracts. Cheese plunged 1.2% to average US$4,274/t.
Inform dairy commodity negotiations in origin and destination markets and global trade. Surface ingredient value from observed commodity prices, traded and reported, and an anticipated global trade balance
With an immense sense of responsibility, we are happy to launch the g-DIP Project (www.globalmilk.net)
g-DIP (global Dairy ingredient price assessment) is the result of countless discussions across 5 continents over the past 5 years to assign a Spot and Forward assessment to the value of dairy ingredients. In its current form, the assessment includes a Spot and 3-month Forward value for both global Butterfat and Nonfat Solids, published biweekly. The assessments are available for everyone, at no cost.
The assessments aim to:
We invite you to join us, participate in the community and strengthen the methodology and use the assessments to inform your commercial negotiations. You will be able to share the g-DIP assessment by tweeting it from your Twitter accounts as well.
Note: The methodology used to derive the assessments is available on the website: Methods A video explaining the assessment and its applications is available: Apply g-DIP
visit website
IN: Nestle India Increases Prices By 1-3% As Commodity Costs Rise.
IN: Container shortages severely disrupted trade in the second half of 2020, just as consumer demand began catching up to pre-pandemic levels. Indian shippers, just like their European, Australian, and US counterparts, began to feel the heat of the crisis as ocean freight rates skyrocketed to exorbitant levels. Governments around the world were forced to intervene, and the situation has somewhat stabilized. To decrease dependence on Chinese Containers the Indian government is set to invest in the container manufacturing sector with the primary goal of boosting its exports.
IN: Rice exports from India have slowed during the current quarter, particularly to South-East Asia where the new crop has arrived. There are other issues such as payment row with Vietnam, high freight charges and fluctuating forex market.
CN: China's August soybean imports from Brazil rise 10.9% y/y. China brought in 9.04 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in August, up from 8.15 million tonnes a year earlier
US: The average milk price received by New York farmers in July 2021 was $18.10 per hundredweight, representing a 20 cent decrease from June 2021 and down 40 cents from July a year ago.
IN: Sugar exporters in India are holding off signing any more export contracts, in a bet that global prices will rally further after bad weather damaged crops in top grower Brazil.
UK: Arla has announced it will increase its October milk price by 0.32ppl on the back of increased prices for European dairy commodities.
IN: The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) India to extend air freight assistance to the exporter of dairy products.
IQ: Iraq’s oil minister said OPEC and its allies are working to keep crude prices close to $70 per barrel as the global economy recovers, state news agency INA reported on Wednesday
IN: In an endeavour to empower rural women and make them financially independent, the National Commission for Women on Monday launched a country-wide training and capacity building program for women in dairy farming.
IN: India announces freight subsidy for dairy exports. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has extended air freight assistance to exporters.
IN: Dairy analogues or plant-based beverages portrayed as dairy products create unhealthy price competition for the dairy industry, said Meenesh Shah, Chairman, NDDB.
IN: Visakha Dairy growing from strength to strength. Visakha Dairy commands a 10% market share in Ultra Heat-Treated Milk (UHT) after Amul and Nandini brands on a pan-India basis.
PK: Royal Group, a Chinese buffalo milk manufacturer based in Nanning, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, has accelerated the implementation of its cooperation project with Pakistan’s dairy buffalo breeding industry since 2021
IN: Department of Animal Husbandry signs MoU with Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to improve livestock sector. Through this collaboration, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will provide technical assistance for the design and delivery of new technologies and implementation of best practices that are relevant in the local context.
AU: The government of Victoria in Australia has launched a US$41 million, 5-year research partnership with the dairy industry as part of its Transformational Agriculture Strategy. F1 hybrids and gene editing will be the focus in the forage programme, and new traits and improved selection in the animal programme. One of the results is expected to be Breeding more efficient cows
DK: Arla Foods will explore regenerative dairy farming practices on 24 pilot farms across UK, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands to create data-driven proof points of their impact on nature and climate. At the same time, more than 900 organic Arla farmers will measure their soil carbon content and register practices that promote biodiversity.
IN: The plant-based industry in India is set for a further blow after it was confirmed the Food Safety and Standards Authority India’s (FSSAI) recent order for online platforms to delist all plant-based products using dairy terms will apply to products being sold offline as well.
GEOPOLITICS/POLICIES/MACRO MERCHANT MARKET / WEATHER CONSUMER /SUSTAINABILITY
nukkad
nukkad
images on the net
China imports increased for all dairy categories in first 7 months of 2021
Class I milk = average of advanced Class III (cheese) and Class IV (milk powders) skim milk prices plus 74 cents
nukkad
editor's pick Understanding Lactose intolerance
According to Food Intolerance Network, Lactose Intolerance (LI,) also known as lactase deficiency or adult-type hypolactasia, is the inability of the body to digest lactose (a disaccharide) properly.
According to FIN, a product is classified as "lactose-free" and therefore can be tolerated well when it contains less than 0,1g lactose per 100g. However, some lactose-intolerant people can tolerate amounts of 1g per 100g in a product quite well.
Amount of Lactose in Milk Products
Jordbrukare aims to better understand and disseminate information about Lactose Intolerance. To partner write to [email protected]
Persons who suffer from lactose intolerance lack this enzyme. This means that the lactose will not be broken down there and, onsequently, reaches the large intestine.
Here some bacteria will process the lactase, and this leads to the production of various gases. These, amongst other things, will lead to the typical
FIN has prepared a map of the worldwide prevalence of lactose intolerance in recent populations. An average of all ethnic groups of the total population of a country is represented.
symptoms of lactose intolerance.
Jordbrukare aspires to fuel growth in the dairy ecosystem by creating an environment that fosters commercial and technological innovation. Jordbrukare recognizes leadership and expertise, facilitates sharing, and employs data science and intelligent computing to
prepare today's businesses for tomorrow's opportunities.
risk management market intelligence business consulting networking
One of the important news items that I came across recently was that Nestle India Ltd. increased prices across its product portfolio by 1-3% as commodities like milk and coffee continue to turn costlier. Globally, costs of commodities like coffee, milk and packaging have seen a 4-5% upside.
In nukkad, we discussed the increasing global commodity prices and different indicators from the Indian market indicating recovery and increasing demand. Rising demand coupled with other macro indicators like oil prices, feed prices and increasing other input costs is a perfect cocktail for a hiked consumer price.
Editor's quote: Given the current dairy commodity price rise, it is becoming clearer that the Indian market is not as insulated as it expects itself to be with tariff barriers in place.
Oil: According to the market commentators, global demand for crude oil has increased consistently with reduced pandemic restrictions and improving vaccination rates. While on the supply side, (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC+ alliance has been slow in easing output restrictions, contributing to the tightened supply in the market.
As per both IEA and OPEC, global demand is expected to outpace supply, due to which international oil prices will likely remain firm in the near to mid-term. A simultaneous rally in natural gas is also likely to drive demand for alternate fuels.
Sensex: Equity benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 410 points or 0.68% on Tuesday due to heavy selling in I.T., financials, and telecom stocks in line with weak global trends as U.S. bond yields rebounded. After plunging over 1,032 points during the session, the 30-share BSE barometer pared some losses to end 410.28 points or 0.68% lower at 59,667.60.
Feed: The International Grains Council (IGC) has released its monthly supply and demand report, projecting a six million-tonne increase in total global grain production at 2.289 billion tonnes in 2021-22.
Global grain ending stocks for 2021-22 was increased to 598.8 million tonnes, a change of 1.6% from the IGC’s August report. That change consisted of a seven million-tonne increase in global corn production, offset by one million-tonne decrease in world wheat output. Soybean production was forecast to hold steady at 380 million.
The report has been received positively by the market and is evident from the recent price movements. NCDEX Soy shredded more than 2000 USD in the last week.
bazaar
Source: Date: Sept 28, 2021 Ncdex Live Soy Bean Prices | Ncdex Soy Bean Live Charts | Ncdex Soy Bean Live Rates | Free Ncdex Soy Bean Tips | NCDEX Live
market watchbazaar
Global Supply AU: July milk production in Australia was weaker than expected to start the 2021-2022 milk season. However, industry sources suggest plentiful rain, good soil moisture levels and good pasture growth may help support an increase in Australian milk output for the upcoming months.
CN: There have been consistent increases in Chinese dairy production, and market commentators assess China's growing dairy product inventory. EU: Milk deliveries across Europe continue their seasonal decline. Besides the natural wind-down of the milking season, the high feed costs place financial pressures on farmers. In the first half of the year, dairy farmers have culled cows at a higher rate than in 2020. In addition, contacts suggest farmers are retiring without the next generation taking over the farm.
IN: Amul's Milk procurement has increased by 171% in the last 11 years. Thus, the price paid to milk producers has also increased by 136%.
NZ: The New Zealand 2021-2022 milk season is still taking shape, but so far, so good, according to industry contacts. Adequate soil moisture and pasture growth are supportive of solid milk yields. Calving is nearing completion, and initial projections of milk output are favourable. Industry weather watchers are keeping an eye on the potential development of a La Nina event this year. This could lead to warmer, drier conditions in the lead up to the southern hemisphere summer.
UK: Arla has announced it will increase its October milk price by 0.32ppl on the back of increased prices for European dairy commodities.
US: According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US just suffered its hottest summer ever. Soaring temperatures weighed on milk yields and tightened supplies as heat stress accumulated late in the summer and into September.
Global Demand
GDIP: Global price assessment (not a forecast) Oct: Butterfat $5,750, SNF $2,714 Nov: Butterfat $5,769, SNF $2,716 Dec: Butterfat $5,839, SNF $2,725 Jan: Butterfat $5,792, SNF $2,758
EU: Key destination for EU exports of cheeses from Jan.-July 2021: USA (+17%), Switzerland (+6%), Ukraine (+10%), Saudi Arabia (+5%), China (+71%), Australia (+5%) and Canada (+21%)
CN: China imports increased for all dairy categories in first 7 months of 2021: butter(oil) (+23%), cheese (+44%), SMP (+45%), WMP (+34%), wheypowder (+37%), casein(ate)s (+51%), condensed (+64%) and lactose (+10%);
MY: Malaysia looks to reduce milk imports through the ‘Dairy Valley’ project. Malaysia’s Johor State Government and the East Coast Economic Region Development Council (ECERDC) have signed a collaboration agreement to develop the Jemaluang Dairy Valley (JDV) project as part of the overall strategy in turning the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) into the ‘Dairy Valley’ of Malaysia.
balance sheet
Mail Cheese Producers 2017 -2021
GDT: During the 292nd event the index went up 1.0%, this was the third successive increase. WMP rose 2.2% to an average of US$3,777/t, with increases across all contracts. SMP grew 0.9% to average US$3,302/t. Fats saw a drop with butter losing 1.8% to average at US$4,857/t, with a drop recorded across all contracts. AMF trimmed 0.1% to average US$5,962/t with mixed contracts. Cheese plunged 1.2% to average US$4,274/t.
Inform dairy commodity negotiations in origin and destination markets and global trade. Surface ingredient value from observed commodity prices, traded and reported, and an anticipated global trade balance
With an immense sense of responsibility, we are happy to launch the g-DIP Project (www.globalmilk.net)
g-DIP (global Dairy ingredient price assessment) is the result of countless discussions across 5 continents over the past 5 years to assign a Spot and Forward assessment to the value of dairy ingredients. In its current form, the assessment includes a Spot and 3-month Forward value for both global Butterfat and Nonfat Solids, published biweekly. The assessments are available for everyone, at no cost.
The assessments aim to:
We invite you to join us, participate in the community and strengthen the methodology and use the assessments to inform your commercial negotiations. You will be able to share the g-DIP assessment by tweeting it from your Twitter accounts as well.
Note: The methodology used to derive the assessments is available on the website: Methods A video explaining the assessment and its applications is available: Apply g-DIP
visit website
IN: Nestle India Increases Prices By 1-3% As Commodity Costs Rise.
IN: Container shortages severely disrupted trade in the second half of 2020, just as consumer demand began catching up to pre-pandemic levels. Indian shippers, just like their European, Australian, and US counterparts, began to feel the heat of the crisis as ocean freight rates skyrocketed to exorbitant levels. Governments around the world were forced to intervene, and the situation has somewhat stabilized. To decrease dependence on Chinese Containers the Indian government is set to invest in the container manufacturing sector with the primary goal of boosting its exports.
IN: Rice exports from India have slowed during the current quarter, particularly to South-East Asia where the new crop has arrived. There are other issues such as payment row with Vietnam, high freight charges and fluctuating forex market.
CN: China's August soybean imports from Brazil rise 10.9% y/y. China brought in 9.04 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in August, up from 8.15 million tonnes a year earlier
US: The average milk price received by New York farmers in July 2021 was $18.10 per hundredweight, representing a 20 cent decrease from June 2021 and down 40 cents from July a year ago.
IN: Sugar exporters in India are holding off signing any more export contracts, in a bet that global prices will rally further after bad weather damaged crops in top grower Brazil.
UK: Arla has announced it will increase its October milk price by 0.32ppl on the back of increased prices for European dairy commodities.
IN: The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) India to extend air freight assistance to the exporter of dairy products.
IQ: Iraq’s oil minister said OPEC and its allies are working to keep crude prices close to $70 per barrel as the global economy recovers, state news agency INA reported on Wednesday
IN: In an endeavour to empower rural women and make them financially independent, the National Commission for Women on Monday launched a country-wide training and capacity building program for women in dairy farming.
IN: India announces freight subsidy for dairy exports. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has extended air freight assistance to exporters.
IN: Dairy analogues or plant-based beverages portrayed as dairy products create unhealthy price competition for the dairy industry, said Meenesh Shah, Chairman, NDDB.
IN: Visakha Dairy growing from strength to strength. Visakha Dairy commands a 10% market share in Ultra Heat-Treated Milk (UHT) after Amul and Nandini brands on a pan-India basis.
PK: Royal Group, a Chinese buffalo milk manufacturer based in Nanning, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, has accelerated the implementation of its cooperation project with Pakistan’s dairy buffalo breeding industry since 2021
IN: Department of Animal Husbandry signs MoU with Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to improve livestock sector. Through this collaboration, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will provide technical assistance for the design and delivery of new technologies and implementation of best practices that are relevant in the local context.
AU: The government of Victoria in Australia has launched a US$41 million, 5-year research partnership with the dairy industry as part of its Transformational Agriculture Strategy. F1 hybrids and gene editing will be the focus in the forage programme, and new traits and improved selection in the animal programme. One of the results is expected to be Breeding more efficient cows
DK: Arla Foods will explore regenerative dairy farming practices on 24 pilot farms across UK, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands to create data-driven proof points of their impact on nature and climate. At the same time, more than 900 organic Arla farmers will measure their soil carbon content and register practices that promote biodiversity.
IN: The plant-based industry in India is set for a further blow after it was confirmed the Food Safety and Standards Authority India’s (FSSAI) recent order for online platforms to delist all plant-based products using dairy terms will apply to products being sold offline as well.
GEOPOLITICS/POLICIES/MACRO MERCHANT MARKET / WEATHER CONSUMER /SUSTAINABILITY
nukkad
nukkad
images on the net
China imports increased for all dairy categories in first 7 months of 2021
Class I milk = average of advanced Class III (cheese) and Class IV (milk powders) skim milk prices plus 74 cents
nukkad
editor's pick Understanding Lactose intolerance
According to Food Intolerance Network, Lactose Intolerance (LI,) also known as lactase deficiency or adult-type hypolactasia, is the inability of the body to digest lactose (a disaccharide) properly.
According to FIN, a product is classified as "lactose-free" and therefore can be tolerated well when it contains less than 0,1g lactose per 100g. However, some lactose-intolerant people can tolerate amounts of 1g per 100g in a product quite well.
Amount of Lactose in Milk Products
Jordbrukare aims to better understand and disseminate information about Lactose Intolerance. To partner write to [email protected]
Persons who suffer from lactose intolerance lack this enzyme. This means that the lactose will not be broken down there and, onsequently, reaches the large intestine.
Here some bacteria will process the lactase, and this leads to the production of various gases. These, amongst other things, will lead to the typical
FIN has prepared a map of the worldwide prevalence of lactose intolerance in recent populations. An average of all ethnic groups of the total population of a country is represented.
symptoms of lactose intolerance.
Jordbrukare aspires to fuel growth in the dairy ecosystem by creating an environment that fosters commercial and technological innovation. Jordbrukare recognizes leadership and expertise, facilitates sharing, and employs data science and intelligent computing to
prepare today's businesses for tomorrow's opportunities.
risk management market intelligence business consulting networking