numbers need context
Post on 19-Sep-2014
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![Page 1: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Context Numbers need
![Page 2: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…
![Page 3: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…
Interesting
![Page 4: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…
Interesting Educational
![Page 5: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…
Interesting Educational Important
![Page 6: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
But it can often be hard to understand them without CONTEXT
![Page 7: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Our media abounds with context-less numbers
![Page 8: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Let’s take a look at a few…
![Page 9: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
“Bacon increases risk of colorectal cancer by 20%”
![Page 10: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
“Bacon increases risk of colorectal cancer by 20%”
“1 extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman’s risk of breast cancer by 12%”
![Page 11: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
“Bacon increases risk of colorectal cancer by 20%”
“1 extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman’s risk of breast cancer by 12%”
“Just 2 units of alcohol a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%”
![Page 12: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
But what do the percentages really mean in real life?
![Page 13: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
And is there a more relevant way we could
be describing this information
![Page 14: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
“Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%”
![Page 15: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
But just how bad is that?
![Page 16: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Lets assume that ordinarily 5 out of 100 people develop Colorectal cancer.
![Page 17: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Therefore if all 100 ate 3 extra rashers every day... The number could rise to six
![Page 18: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Therefore if all 100 ate 3 extra rashers every day... The number could rise to six
![Page 19: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
So therefore…
![Page 20: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
So therefore… Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%
![Page 21: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
So therefore… Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%
Is the exact same as saying
![Page 22: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
So therefore… Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%
Is the exact same as saying
About 1 extra case per 100 people
![Page 23: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Next up…
![Page 24: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
“One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”
![Page 25: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
But just how bad is that?
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Let’s assume about 10 out of 100 women have breast cancer in a lifetime
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If all 100 drink an extra unit a day, that number rises to 11.
![Page 28: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
If all 100 drink an extra unit a day, that number rises to 11.
![Page 29: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
So therefore…
![Page 30: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
So therefore…
One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”
![Page 31: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
So therefore…
One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”
Is the exact same as saying
![Page 32: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
So therefore…
One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”
Is the exact same as saying
About 1 extra case per 100 people
![Page 33: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
And Finally…
![Page 34: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
“Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%”
![Page 35: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
But just how GOOD is that?
![Page 36: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
About 32 out of 100 women have coronary heart disease in a lifetime.
![Page 37: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
If all 100 were to drink 2 units of alcohol every day… that number would fall to 27
![Page 38: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
If all 100 were to drink 2 units of alcohol every day… that number would fall to 27
![Page 39: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
So therefore…
![Page 40: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
So therefore… Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%
![Page 41: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
So therefore… Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%
Is the exact same as saying
![Page 42: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
So therefore… Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%
Is the exact same as saying
About 5 fewer cases per 100 people
![Page 43: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
So we have a little problem
![Page 44: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Depending on the story
![Page 45: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
20% can equal 1 person in 100
![Page 46: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
20% can equal 1 person in 100
12% can equal 1 person in 100
![Page 47: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
20% can equal 1 person in 100
12% can equal 1 person in 100
17% can equal 5 people in 100
![Page 48: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
So…
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Percentage figures without CONTEXT are meaningless and can often misleading
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When talking about health matters it isn’t enough to deal with percentages
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Think about number of lives affected
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And…
![Page 53: Numbers NEED Context](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042623/541bc6a17bef0a594d8b458b/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
We must hold our media to account and ensure that journalists do not go for the FLASHY, SHINY and TRENDY (not to mention misleading) sounding story rather than the more relevant and helpful one...
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Because…
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Those… “Who might rely on the news for guidance, deserve something more relevant”
(M. Blastland)
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