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ORLANDO MULTIFAMILY RENTAL TRENDS SUPPLY/DEMAND EMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS NOVEMBER 2018

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Page 1: ORLANDOthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Orlando_Nov-2018.pdfEast Kissimmee 26.1% 352 Downtown Orlando 25.8% 1,089 Florida Center 23.7% 344 West Kissimmee 21.6% 390 Lake

ORLANDOMULTIFAMILY

RENTAL TRENDSSUPPLY/DEMANDEMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS

NOVEMBER 2018

Page 2: ORLANDOthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Orlando_Nov-2018.pdfEast Kissimmee 26.1% 352 Downtown Orlando 25.8% 1,089 Florida Center 23.7% 344 West Kissimmee 21.6% 390 Lake

SUPPLY

RENTAL TRENDS

DEMAND

Employment Sector Current Share YOY Change

Leisure and Hospitality 19.5% 16,500 5.9%

Mining, Logging and Construction 6.6% 12,800 14.5%

Education and Health Services 12.9% 8,900 4.7%

Professional and Business Services 17.2% 8,400 3.3%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 18.0% 7,100 2.6%

Manufacturing 4.8% 4,400 6.3%

Other Services 3.6% 3,400 6.6%

Financial Activities 5.6% 2,000 2.4%

Government 10.1% 0 0.0%

Information 1.7% 0 0.0%

National RankingOut of 98 Markets 13Rent

Growth [-8] 2 EmploymentGrowth 20 Completions

[-4]

Inventory by Property Status# of Properties

855Completed

209,033 Units

43Under Construction

11,553 Units

60Planned

17,578 Units

110Prospective

26,862 Units

ORLANDO MULTIFAMILY NOVEMBER 2018

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Page 3: ORLANDOthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Orlando_Nov-2018.pdfEast Kissimmee 26.1% 352 Downtown Orlando 25.8% 1,089 Florida Center 23.7% 344 West Kissimmee 21.6% 390 Lake

HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Winter Garden $1,120 97.8% 11.0%

Florida Center North $1,260 97.2% 10.4%

Lake Richmond $1,213 96.2% 10.2%

Pine Hills $990 97.6% 10.0%

Clermont $1,416 94.6% 9.0%

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Fish Lake $1,044 95.6% 1.6%

Lake Nona $1,499 95.7% 1.4%

Holden Heights $1,058 - 1.0%

Lake Mary $1,364 95.7% 0.7%

Downtown Orlando $1,687 94.6% 0.6%

HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKET - WINTER GARDEN

SUBMARKETS YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH

Properties 4

Units 477

Average Rent/Unit $1,120

Effective YOY Chg 11.0%

RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET NOVEMBER 2018

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LIFESTYLE APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH

HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Rosemont $1,108 97.3% 12.5%

Florida Center North $1,556 95.1% 11.1%

Lake Catherine $1,370 92.7% 10.9%

West Kissimmee $1,377 95.6% 10.4%

Lake Richmond $1,266 96% 10.3%

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Lockhart $1,085 97.8% 11.9%

Pine Hills $847 97.6% 11.7%

Winter Garden $924 99.1% 11.2%

Weathersfield $1,219 96.9% 10.8%

Kirkman $1,243 95.5% 10.7%

LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Winter Park/Maitland $1,743 93.8% 2.1%

Lake Nona $1,499 95.7% 1.4%

Lake Mary $1,407 96% 0.7%

Downtown Orlando $1,799 94.1% 0.6%

Weathersfield $1,288 93% 0.2%

Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change

Downtown Orlando $1,011 96.8% 1.3%

Lake Mary $1,225 94.9% 1.1%

Vista Park $1,161 96.6% 0.8%

Oviedo $1,620 98.4% 0.5%

Gotha/Orlovista $1,047 97.6% 0.4%

ROSEMONT LOCKHART

Lifestyle RBN Overall

Properties 3 15 18

Units 704 3,222 3,926

Avg Rent/Unit $1,108 $965 $991

Effective YOY Chg 12.5% 7.2% 8.2%

RBN Lifestyle Overall

Properties 4 6 10

Units 625 2,158 2,783

Avg Rent/Unit $1,085 $1,445 $1,364

Effective YOY Chg 11.9% 6.0% 7.1%

RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET AND ASSET QUALITY NOVEMBER 2018

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OVERALL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

PROJECTED COMPLETIONS AS % OF PRIOR INVENTORY - 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2019Submarket Growth # Units

Winter Park/Maitland 53.2% 1,424

Pine Hills 30.9% 754

Downtown Orlando 19.3% 1,089

Florida Center 16.2% 344

West Kissimmee 13.8% 690

Longwood 10.9% 281

Celebration 10.3% 338

Palm Bay 10.0% 620

Colonial Town 8.7% 356

Lake Monroe 8.6% 280

Goldenrod 7.8% 332

+ 11 More Submarkets 2,838

Market Overall 4.2%9,346 Units

National RankingOut of 98 Markets

11,553 Units

16Lifestyle

10,727 Units

34Renters-by-Necessity [+9]

826 Units

16Overall

SUPPLY NOVEMBER 2018

TOP DEVELOPERS BY UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONLARGEST COMMUNITIES UNDER CONSTRUCTIONDeveloper # Units # Props

Brel Capital 703 2

Real Estate Inverlad 630 1

LeCesse Development 612 2

Pollack Shores 442 2

Crescent Communities 375 1

Camden Property Trust 364 1

Cornerstone Group 356 1

Eastwind Development 352 1

Mill Creek Residential Trust 350 1

Related Group 350 1

Project Address # Units Developer

Yard at Ivanhoe, The 1605 Alden Road Orlando, FL 32803

630 Real Estate Inverlad

M2 at Millenia 4206 Eastgate Drive Orlando, FL 32839

403 Brel Capital

Novel Lucerne 733 Main Lane Orlando, FL 32801 375 Crescent Communities

520 East 555 Mariposa Street Orlando, FL 32801

364 Camden Property Trust

Urbon 3710 Maguire Blvd Orlando, FL 32803

356 Cornerstone Group

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LIFESTYLE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

PROJECTED RBN COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORYPROJECTED LIFESTYLE COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORY

Submarket Growth # Units

Winter Park/Maitland 135.0% 1,424

Goldenrod 39.2% 332

Longwood 34.6% 281

East Kissimmee 26.1% 352

Downtown Orlando 25.8% 1,089

Florida Center 23.7% 344

West Kissimmee 21.6% 390

Lake Monroe 12.3% 280

Celebration 10.7% 338

Vista Park 10.7% 312

Colonial Town 10.0% 356

+ 10 More Submarkets 3,262

Market Overall 8.3%8,760 Units

Submarket Growth # Units

West Kissimmee 9.4% 300

Holden Heights 7.6% 120

Pine Hills 7.1% 166

Market Overall 0.5%586 Units

SUPPLY NOVEMBER 2018

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Page 7: ORLANDOthemultifamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Orlando_Nov-2018.pdfEast Kissimmee 26.1% 352 Downtown Orlando 25.8% 1,089 Florida Center 23.7% 344 West Kissimmee 21.6% 390 Lake

EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TREND FOR TOTAL NON-FARM AND TWO LARGEST INDUSTRY SECTORS

EARNINGS GROWTH TREND VS NATIONAL

Employment National YOY Change 5-Year ChangeEmployment Sector Jobs % Share Rank Jobs Pct. Jobs Pct.

Leisure and Hospitality 299K 19.5% 14 16.5K 5.9% 54.8K 22.5%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 275K 18.0% 29 7.1K 2.6% 34.4K 14.3%

Professional and Business Services 265K 17.2% 25 8.4K 3.3% 58.5K 28.4%

Education and Health Services 198K 12.9% 33 8.9K 4.7% 32.1K 19.4%

Government 155K 10.1% 41 0.0K 0.0% 7.7K 5.2%

Mining, Logging and Construction 101K 6.6% 22 12.8K 14.5% 38.6K 61.8%

Financial Activities 86K 5.6% 31 2.0K 2.4% 7.4K 9.5%

Manufacturing 74K 4.8% 47 4.4K 6.3% 15.8K 27.1%

Other Services 55K 3.6% 27 3.4K 6.6% 11.3K 25.7%

Information 27K 1.7% 29 0.0K 0.0% 0.9K 3.5%

Total Non-Farm 1534K 100.0% 26 63.5K 4.3% 261.5K 20.6%

EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS NOVEMBER 2018

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Prior 12 Months

37Sale Price [-2]

$140,293Average Price/Unit

8Sale Velocity [-2]

84Properties Sold

9Sale Volume

$3,260MMTotal Sales

National RankingOut of 98 Markets

MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETS BY TRANSACTION VOLUME

SALE TRENDS

MOST ACTIVE BUYERS BY # PROPERTIES PURCHASED MOST ACTIVE SELLERS BY # PROPERTIES SOLD

Lifestyle RBN

# Properties 37 47

Total $MM $2,148 $1,112

Avg $/Unit $184,820 $95,742

Company # Units $MM

Starwood Capital Group 15 4,129 $396.5

S2 Residential 5 2,422 $202.1

TruAmerica Multifamily 3 1,326 $181.5

TH Real Estate 3 980 $194.3

Abacus Capital Group 3 594 $57.5

Amzak Capital Management 3 570 $36.9

Robbins Property Associates 2 732 $109.0

Cortland Partners 2 618 $124.9

Company # Units $MM

Banyan Realty Management 15 4,129 $396.5

NRInvestments 3 1,662 $124.5

CFH Group 3 594 $57.5

Lohman, Ty G. 3 570 $36.9

Starwood Capital Group 2 954 $124.6

GoldOller Real Estate Investments 2 876 $112.0

B & M Management 2 643 $102.7

Jefferson Apartment Group 2 477 $132.3

Submarket # Units $MM

Weathersfield 10 3,502 $533.2

Downtown Orlando 6 1,880 $472.5

Lake Bryan 6 1,692 $354.9

Altamonte Springs 6 1,802 $328.0

University Park 6 1,306 $320.9

Hancock Lake 4 1,536 $274.5

Oak Ridge - east 8 2,504 $256.4

Lake Catherine 6 3,372 $255.4

West Kissimmee 4 1,352 $248.6

Stoneybrook 6 1,872 $244.8

+ 30 More Submarkets 106 25,650 $3,229.9

Total 168 46,468 $6,519.1

$89,000,000299 UnitsBuyer: Camden Property Trust

Sale Date: 09/25/2018

Camden Thornton Park

HIGHEST PRICED PREV. 3 MONTHS

TRANSACTION ACTIVITY NOVEMBER 2018

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COVERAGE

Yardi® Matrix reports on multi-family properties of 50+ units in size.

This report for the Orlando metro area covers Counties: Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole

Rental rate coverage is for Market Rate properties only. Fully Affordable properties are not included in our rental surveys and are not reported in rental rate averages.

GENERAL DEFINITIONS

Asset Class – refers to a generalized category of properties grouped by their Yardi® Matrix improvements rating

Lifestyle Asset Class – a grouping of all of the highest rated market rate properties A+, A, A- and B+

Renters-by-Necessity (RBN) Asset Class – a grouping of all of the lowest rated properties B, B-, C+, C, C- and D

Year-over-Year Change – percentage growth from last year, for several months or quarters in a time-series. This analysis will highlight an overall direction of movement for a metro.

An upward slope means an accelerating growth. A downward slope means a slowing growth. Above the line (zero) for increases, below the line for loss.

Rankings – this metro is ranked nationally among other Yardi Matrix reported metros based on a single measure. For details on any specific ranking, see section descriptions below

COMMONLY USED CALCULATIONS

DATA SOURCES

Rental Rates – are collected by Yardi® Matrix phone surveyors three times annually for 95%+ of property and unit configurations. Additionally, a representative sample of the market (between 10% and 20%) are surveyed monthly.

Occupancy Rates – are derived from U.S. Postal Service data and Yardi® Matrix phone surveys

Development Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Construction projects are discovered through various publications and local government sources. Projects are tracked on a monthly basis. Completion dates and lease-up information are confirmed by phone calls to properties under construction.

Employment – data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reported employment is generally two months behind the current date for this report.

Transaction Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Sales are discovered through various publications and local government sources, and updates are made continuously.

Rent Growth Ranking – based on rent growth over the past year, current month.

Employment Growth Ranking – based on employment growth over the past year, latest employment month.

Completions Ranking – based on inventory growth over the past year, current month.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Calculations – total employment size (jobs) is expressed as a sum of employment in areas overlapping the reported market: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS

Industry Sectors – are defined by the NAICS Supersector designations. For more information visit: http://www.bls.gov/sae/saesuper.htm

Sector National Ranking – is based on the absolute size of the industry sector within this metro, when compared to the same industry in other metro areas nationally.

Earnings weekly vs hourly – differentiates hourly wage workers, from weekly salaried workers.

DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

Prospective Properties – announced construction projects, with no specific documents or government filings

Planned Properties – are in the planning stages of construction, with documents having been filed with the county or city

Under Construction Properties – have received permits for construction and broken ground.

Rankings – are based on the number of units currently under construction: Overall, Lifestyle and Renters-by-Necessity Asset Classifications

Projected Completions – Projected completions reported by Yardi® Matrix are limited to a year out and are based on properties currently under construction and their expected completion date.

Projected Completions as a % of Prior Inventory – This forward-looking metric uses projected unit completions to calculate a relative growth over the next year for a particular area. Submarkets with a total share of market inventory below 1% are assigned an N/A value, to avoid over-stating their significance in rankings and color-coded map displays.

Construction and Completion Counts – are reported based on property status as of the start of the month.

TRANSACTION ACTIVITY

Price – is expressed as Price/Unit as a standard measure. This is also used for national ranking

Velocity – is measured by the number of properties sold per year. This is also used for national ranking

Volume – measures the total amount of money spent in multi-family sale transactions in the prior year, expressed as millions of U.S. Dollars ($MM). This is also used for national ranking

METHODS AND DEFINITIONS NOVEMBER 2018

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