o x f o r d r e s e a r c h falkoner allé 20 dk-2000 frederiksberg tlf.: 33 69 13 69 fax: 33 69 13...

O x

f o

r d

R

e s

e a

r c

h

Falkoner allé 20

DK-2000 Frederiksberg

Tlf.: 33 69 13 69

Fax: 33 69 13 33

E-mail: [email protected]

Hjemmeside: www.oxfordresearch.dk

Scenarios as a strategic tool

Challenges for the European tourism sector

Presentation by

Jakob Stoumann, Senior analyst

Oxford ResearchCopenhagen

- a company in the Oxford Group -

Agenda

1. Background: A comprehensive sectoral analysis of the EU Hotels & restaurants sector

2. Challenges for the European tourism industry

3. Scenarios as a strategic tool

4. Summing up and recommendations


Background

In 2008-2009 Oxford Research carried out a comprehensive mapping and analysis of the European Hotels and restaurant sector for the European Commission.

Focus was on drivers of change and emerging skills ad competencies

The study was carried out simultaneous with 17 other comprehensive sector studies

All studies followed the same methodology: The European Foresight Methodology. Qualitative scenario building is one of the main pillars of the EFM

The studies formed part of the European Commission’s overall strategic goal to identify trends and drivers of change in the European labour market in order to enhance strategic human resource management


Challenges

Challenges for the European tourism industry

Heightened international competition: Europe is lacking behind…

Lack of qualified labour• Weak focus un training and up-skilling• Need to up-date educational system• Poor working conditions and career possibilities

Sector characterised by a certain level of inertia• Slow pace of innovation• Few players take in to account new mega

trends (e.g. health and climate concerns)

Lack of cooperation

Little strategic planning


The Scenario methodology

The general economic development:• Continued economic growth and

globalisation or,• Economic recession and nationalism

The development of certain consumer trends• Puritanism or,• Escapism

Two uncertain but very important drivers for the Hotels and restaurants sector has been identified. Scenarios describe possible developments until 2020.


Crossing drivers of change

Puritanism

Consumers will develop a more puritan and

spiritual approach to consumption. The

personal responsibility concerning for example

health, environment, climate and fair trade is

taken very serious. Saving before spending

becomes more important. Economic recession and nationalism

A recession will influence the society for the next 10-12 years. It will result in increased nationalism and regionalism where regions

and nations turn their back to global cooperation concentrating on their own lack of

resources.

Economic growth and globalisation

The ongoing economic crisis is just a minor and short economic slow down. With such a positive economic development increased

globalisation will follow.Escapism

Consumption is typically driven by the ‘faster, better, bigger’ ideology. Climate problems for example are not seen as a personal responsibility´. The escapists are concerned about health and the fairness of the world but tend to escape via wellness and traditional luxury.


The four scenarios

Economic recession and nationalism

Continued economic growth and globalisation

Scenario 1

The Marco Polo Scenario

Scenario 1


Scenario 2

The Sunny Beach

Scenario

Scenario 2

The Sunny Beach

Scenario

Puritanism

Scenario 3

The Body Shop Scenario

Scenario 3


Scenario 4

The Asceticism Scenario

Scenario 4


Escapism



Escapism



• High individualisation • Some specialisation possibilities • Polarisation of the market•High growth in both inbound and outbound tourism• Wellness and traditional luxury


The Sunny Beach Scenario

Escapism



• Mass produce, economies of scale • Highly price driven market • Conformity• Comfort – but no luxury• Regionalisation of travelling



Puritanism



• High individualisation• Many specialisation possibilities • Segmentation of the market• Healthy lifestyle and holidays•Goodness: volunteering, fair trade, organic food, etc.



Puritanism



• Basic living – simple holidaying• ‘Close-to-home’ tourism• Experiences: healthy, sustainable and not expensive• Food: vegetarian, organic, local produce, simple


Emerging Competences in the scenarios

Tasks and emerging competences Main occupationa

l function



The Body Shop Scenario The Asceticism Scenario

General Managemen

t

• Entrepreneurship• Knowledge about health, environment and climate• CSR• Knowledge about ICT• International financial management•Intercultural management

• International financial management• Knowledge about ICT• Contract management• Rationalisation methods and techniques

• Entrepreneurship• Project management• Multicultural

management • International networking• Knowledge about ICT• Knowledge about health, environment and climate• CSR

• Knowledge about health, environment and climate• CSR• Rationalisation methods and techniques

Marketing • International corporate branding• Branding through ICT• Employer branding

• International corporate branding• Branding through ICT

• Incorporating sustainability

and CSR in corporate branding

• Exploring new, individualised

market segments• Employer branding• Branding through ICT

• Employer branding• Incorporating

sustainability and CSR in branding • Branding through ICT

R&D • Developing new, uniqueindividualised hospitality experiences• Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions

• Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions

• Developing new individualised

hospitality experiences• Developing sustainableresorts and healthy menus • Developing and applying

ICT and internet solutions

• Developing sustainable resorts and healthy menus

Production/service

• Multi-skilling andflexibility• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions• Intercultural competences

• Multiskilling and lexibility• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions

• Language skills• Intercultural competences• Cooperation and team

spirit• Multiskilling and flexibility• Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and

climate• ICT skills

• Multi-skilling and flexibility

• Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and climate• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions


Recommendations

Europe can’t compete (only) on price – in the long run!

Sunny Beach is the easy, but short sighted, way to go

Instead: High end / luxury market (the ‘Marco Polos’)

Niches and specialisation (the ‘Body Shoppers’ and Marco Polos)

Sustainable tourism - for all (the Ascetics and the Body Shoppers)

Close-to-home tourism (Ascetics)

Uniqueness and value for money (all)


Recommendations

More strategic planning is needed!

Segmentation and innovation:• Find your uniqueness, • Which target group(s) and which niches?• Invent specialised offers, services and experiences?

Which competencies, resources, measures etc. will be needed?

Multilevel cooperation is needed!

Destination building and innovation --› Clustering and networking

Upskilling and training --› Social dialogue

Up-to-date education --› cooperation between industry and education


DenmarkOxford Research A/SFalkoner Allé 20, 4. sal2000 Frederiksberg CDanmarkPhone: (+45) 33 69 13 69Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33

[email protected]

www.oxfordresearch.dk

NorwayOxford Research ASKjøita 424630 KristiansandNorgePhone: (+47) 40 00 57 93

[email protected]

www.oxford.no

SwedenOxford Research ABBox 582201 25 MalmöSverigePhone: (+45) 33 69 13 69Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33

[email protected]

www.oxfordresearch.se

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