oakland county economic outlook 2014 - 2016

OAKLAND COUNTY

ECONOMICOUTLOOK2 0 1 4 – 2 0 1 6May 1, 2014 • Detroit Marriott – Troy

Oakland Community College M-TECSM Building • Auburn Hills, Michigan

i3 Detroit • Ferndale, Michigan © 2014 Oakland County, Michigan

1Presentation Review

Hosts and Sponsors of the 29th Annual

Oakland CountyEconomic Outlook Luncheon

Thursday, May 1, 2014

HostsL. Brooks Patterson

Oakland County Executive

John C. Carter

PresidentChase, Middle Market Banking

Timothy R. Meyer, Ph.D.

ChancellorOakland Community College

SponsorsAutomation AlleyBishop International Airport Construction Association of MichiganITC HoldingsKelly Services Oakland County Workforce Development Oakland University

Program11:50 a.m. Welcome

L. Brooks Patterson

Master of Ceremonies

11:55 a.m. Lunch

12:30 p.m. IntroductionL. Brooks Patterson

Introduction of Speakers

John C. Carter

PresidentMichigan Middle Management BankingChase

Timothy R. Meyer, Ph.D.

Chancellor Oakland Community College

12:40 p.m. George A. Fulton

Donald R. Grimes

Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy at the University of Michigan

Oakland County Employment Forecast Through 2016

1:30 p.m. Prize DrawingsClosing StatementsL. Brooks Patterson

2 2014–2016 Economic Outlook for Oakland County

Every other Monday you’ll learn about our thriving communities, quality arts & cultural events, active historic preservation programs or how to take advantage of our county-wide system of linked trails and paths. And of course you’ll learn about the latest in economic development in Oakland County.


THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR OAKLAND COUNTYIN 2014–2016

Presentation Review

Prepared byGeorge A. FultonDonald R. Grimes

Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy

Prepared for

May 2014

The full report will be provided in June on the Web (updated each year) atwww.AdvantageOakland.com or www.irlee.umich.edu/clmr


Average absolute forecast error 1986–2013: 1.7%

Forecast date: April 2013

Forecast 2013 Actual 2013Unemployment rate 8.2% 8.1%Consumer infl ation rate 1.7% 1.6%

In last year’s report, we forecast that the Oak-land County economy would continue its healthy recovery in 2013, but would back off some from the red-hot pace it sustained in 2011 and 2012, which averaged over 26,100 private-sector job additions per year.

•

As we anticipated, the healthy recovery did con-tinue, and private-sector job growth did slow, with a smaller contribution of 16,630 jobs in 2013.

•

Our forecast was too low by 0.8 percent, how-ever, or 8 private-sector workers per 1,000. This was a much smaller miss than our average error of 1.7 percent over the past twenty-eight years.

•

Our forecast was also too optimistic for health services, which contributed only a handful of jobs in 2013. The recent sluggishness in health care hiring may well refl ect some caution as provid-ers adjust to changes in funding and demand for health care under the Affordable Care Act.

•

The two major industry divisions where job gains most exceeded our expectations were profes-sional and business services, and manufacturing.

•

Within professional and business services, the largest shortfall in our forecast was in the busi-ness support component. Within manufacturing, our largest underestimate of job gain was in fab-ricated metal products, particularly related to ma-chine shops.

•

Our forecast of the unemployment rate was virtu-ally spot-on, with the recorded rate of 8.1 percent for 2013 coming in a mere tenth of a percentage point lower than the 8.2 percent rate we projected a year ago.

•We were correct in forecasting job gains in all of the major industry divisions except for fi nance, which contrary to our expectation shrank in 2013, largely due to a retraction in the local banking in-dustry.

•

We were equally close to the bull’s eye on our forecast of the local infl ation rate—again with only a tenth of a percentage point separating the out-come for 2013 and our projection made a year ago.

•

Table 1

Report Card: Track Record over the YearsYear of

Forecast% Forecast Error

for Total Private JobsYear of


for Total Private JobsYear of


for Total Private Jobs1986 +1.4 1996 – 0.5 2006 +3.31987 +0.7 1997 +0.6 2007 01988 –1.8 1998 +1.3 2008 +2.21989 –1.9 1999 –1.2 2009 +5.51990 +2.2 2000 +0.6 2010 –1.61991 +3.9 2001 +1.9 2011 –2.31992 –2.0 2002 +2.5 2012 –2.21993 +0.5 2003 +1.6 2013 –0.81994 –1.3 2004 +2.61995 +0.2 2005 +1.4

(Positive numbers indicate that the forecast was too high; negative numbers indicate that it was too low.)


NOTES

Job losses were recorded in every year from 2006 to 2009 in Oakland, with the county economy hit-ting bottom in the dreadful year of 2009.

•

This low point was a culmination of the national Great Recession and bankruptcy proceedings for both General Motors and Chrysler.

•

By 2011, Oakland had turned the corner sharply. The economy added 24,412 jobs in 2011, its sec-ond-best performance since 1994, and followed that up with even a little stronger year in 2012, adding 24,865 jobs then.

•Among the major industry divisions in aggregate, the top job producers in the recovery to date have been professional and business services; trade, transportation, and utilities; and manufacturing. The two major industry divisions that have lost jobs over the recovery period are government and fi nancial activities.

•

The solid recovery continued in 2013, but with job growth moderating somewhat—to 15,734 addi-tions—from its torrid pace of the prior two years. The job gains for 2011 through 2013 have coun-tered the loss suffered in 2009, and then some.

•

The continuing recovery in Oakland is supported by an expanding U.S. economy, a recovering lo-cal housing sector, and increasing vehicle sales, with the Detroit Three fully participating. All of this is backed by the county’s strong economic fun-damentals and forward-looking policy initiatives.

•

Figure 1

Job Growth in Oakland County, 2006 –13


Figure 1


–70,000–60,000–50,000–40,000–30,000–20,000–10,000

010,00020,00030,00040,000

–18,494

– 5,801

–20,433

– 59,663

24,865

–1,113

24,41215,734

Job Growth

2006 2007 2008 2009 2011*Estimate

2010 2013*2012


Table 2

Twenty Industries with the Greatest Job Gains in Oakland County, 2010 –13

It is instructive to break out at a detailed industry level the top job producers in Oakland’s recovery to date.

•

Among the twenty industries with the largest em-ployment gains from 2010 to 2013, twelve of them (60 percent) have wage levels above the average for the county overall, most of them well above. Indeed, six of the top eight industries (75 percent) with the largest job gains over the period pay well above average wages.

•

The professional and business services sector contributes eight of the top twenty job providers, and six of the twelve higher-paid providers.

•

The top twenty job providers, and the higher-wage portion among them, are dominated by in-dustries in professional and business services, as well as in auto-related manufacturing and whole-sale trade.

•

NOTES

The top four growth industries are associated with the auto industry, both its white-collar (engineer-ing services, headquarters, and testing laborato-ries) and its manufacturing component.

•

The strength of the Oakland economy is tradi-tionally concentrated in the area of white-collar professional services, which includes—in addi-tion to engineering services, headquarters, and testing laboratories—computer systems design, management and technical consulting, and legal services.

•

The higher-wage contributors to Oakland’s job growth also include three manufacturing indus-tries—autos, fabricated metals, and machinery; two wholesale trade industries—durable goods and electronic markets; and specialty trade con-tractors in construction.

•


Table 2


IndustryChange2010 –13

% Change2010 –13

Average Wage2012

Total payroll jobs 65,011 10.6 $54,840Engineering services 7,219 49.1 71,733Transportation equipment manufacturing 5,417 38.9 89,429Management of companies and enterprises 3,573 33.5 130,516Testing laboratories 3,409 26.1 84,582Full-service restaurants 3,234 16.1 17,055Fabricated metals manufacturing 3,191 41.2 58,260Services to buildings 3,176 38.7 23,761Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 3,132 15.3 89,371Business support services 2,230 56.0 42,616Limited-service restaurants 2,107 14.4 12,836Construction, specialty trade contractors 1,967 17.6 58,112Transportation and warehousing 1,920 28.1 47,604Nursing and residential care facilities 1,919 14.2 26,214Computer systems design and related services 1,909 10.5 81,025Machinery manufacturing 1,750 20.1 76,017Management and technical consulting services 1,686 30.2 77,092Social assistance 1,667 21.3 22,190Warehouse clubs and supercenters 1,506 32.3 25,563Legal services 1,384 13.2 80,549Wholesale electronic markets, agents, brokers 1,308 28.3 79,244


The performance of Oakland’s economy can also be evaluated with unemployment as the mea-sure, including the rate for the United States for comparison.

•

The unemployment rate for Oakland County peaked in 2009 at 12.9 percent. Over the follow-ing four years, the jobless rate shrank with the recovery in the local labor market, fi rst slightly in 2010, to 12.4 percent, and then more sharp-ly thereafter, gravitating down to 8.1 percent by 2013.

•

Oakland’s jobless rate has been higher than the U.S. rate so far during the recovery period, but the gap has narrowed consistently and consider-ably, from 3.6 percentage points in the nation’s favor in 2009 to a much smaller 0.7 in 2013.

•

The last time the county unemployment rate was lower than the U.S. rate was for an eleven-year stretch from 1993 to 2003, inclusive.

•

NOTES

Figure 2

Unemployment Rates for Oakland County and for the United States, 2009 –13

The decline in the rates observed for 2010 and 2011 was due in part to discouraged workers leaving the labor force, which offi cially removes them from the count of the unemployed. By 2012, movements in the local labor force turned positive, fi rst minimally and then picking up steam in 2013, as many more residents sought out ex-panding job opportunities.

•


Figure 2


4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

9.3 9.68.9

8.17.4

12.912.4

10.2

9.18.1

OaklandUnited States


Table 3

Oakland County Compared with 35 U.S. Counties of Similar Size

NOTES

We ranked Oakland County and thirty-fi ve other counties of similar size in the United States on a series of measures that we judge to be indicators of future economic prosperity. The data underly-ing the rankings are provided in appendix B.

•

The counties of comparable size to Oakland had populations between 900,000 and 1.6 million in 2013; Oakland’s population was 1.232 million.

•

Many of these counties are among the most prosperous in the nation—a number of them are among the small group of U.S. counties that have the AAA bond rating with multiple rating agencies. Oakland County is included in that group.

•

The thirty-six counties are also ordered by a sum-mation of all of the rankings. This is not meant to be a rigorous measure of overall ranking, but it is at least suggestive of relative standing.

•

Oakland ranks eleventh overall among the thirty-six counties on this basis, an impressive stand-ing considering that a number of these counties house some of the healthiest local economies in the nation.

•

One of Oakland’s advantages over many of the other counties listed is its comparatively low cost of living. In an attempt to account for this at least partially in our measures, we have now adjusted the median family income indicator to refl ect dif-ferences among the counties in annual median rent.

•The measures used in this analysis are: (1) share of the population aged 25 to 64 (prime working-age population) with at least an associate’s de-gree in 2012; (2) share of the population aged 17 and under who lived within families whose income was below the poverty level in 2012; (3) median family income adjusted for median rent in 2012; (4) share of persons aged 65 and older with income at least fi ve times the poverty line in 2012; and (5) share of employed county residents working in professional and managerial occupa-tions in 2012.

•

Whether we assess Oakland County with respect to how it is positioned in key economic funda-mentals across all regions of the United States, or more restrictively here among many of the elite local economies, it is hard not to see the county thriving as time goes on.

•

The county is especially noteworthy for its share of residents employed in professional and mana-gerial occupations and for its residents’ high level of education.

•

A lower number for the rank indicates a better po-sition for the measure among the thirty-six coun-ties; i.e., a rank of 1 is best and 36 is worst. Oak-land County ranks between 7 and 16 across the fi ve measures.

•


Table 3

Oakland County Compared with 35 U.S. Counties of Similar Size*(Ranking based on selected indicators of prosperity)

High-Income

Associate’s Median Persons

Population Degree Child Family Aged 65 Managerial, Sum of RankCounty State 2013 or More Poverty Income or Older Professional Rankings of Sum

Fairfax VA 1,130,924 1 2 1 1 2 7 1

Montgomery MD 1,016,677 2 1 2 2 1 8 2

Middlesex MA 1,552,802 3 5 4 13 3 28 3

Bergen NJ 925,328 8 7 7 6 8 36 4

Fairfi eld CT 939,904 9 8 5 5 12 39 5

Nassau NY 1,352,146 12 4 3 3 18 40 6

Westchester NY 968,802 10 9 6 4 11 40 6

DuPage IL 932,126 7 6 9 11 13 46 8

Wake NC 974,289 4 13 14 12 4 47 9

Hennepin MN 1,198,778 5 16 12 17 6 56 10

Oakland MI 1,231,640 11 10 13 16 7 57 11Suffolk NY 1,499,738 22 3 8 7 20 60 12

Contra Costa CA 1,094,205 18 11 10 10 14 63 13

Alameda CA 1,578,891 15 15 11 14 9 64 14

Fulton GA 984,293 6 23 16 18 5 68 15

Travis TX 1,120,954 16 25 18 8 10 77 16

St. Louis MO 1,001,444 14 18 17 20 16 85 17

Honolulu HI 983,429 21 12 15 9 30 87 18

Allegheny PA 1,231,527 13 17 19 28 15 92 19

Mecklenburg NC 990,977 17 21 21 19 17 95 20

Salt Lake UT 1,079,721 25 14 22 21 22 104 21

Franklin OH 1,212,263 19 24 23 24 19 109 22

Erie PA 919,866 20 20 20 27 26 113 23

Palm Beach FL 1,372,171 24 22 27 15 29 117 24

Pinellas FL 929,048 28 19 25 30 25 127 25

Sacramento CA 1,462,131 32 27 24 22 24 129 26

Cuyahoga OH 1,263,154 27 26 26 32 21 132 27

Hillsborough FL 1,291,578 26 29 29 29 23 136 28

Pima AZ 996,554 30 30 28 23 28 139 29

Orange FL 1,225,267 23 28 32 26 32 141 30

Shelby TN 939,465 33 32 31 25 31 152 31

Milwaukee WI 956,023 29 31 30 33 33 156 32

Marion IN 928,281 31 33 33 34 34 165 33

Philadelphia PA 1,553,165 34 34 35 35 27 165 33

Fresno CA 955,272 35 35 34 31 35 170 35

Bronx NY 1,418,733 36 36 36 36 36 180 36

*All counties in the United States with a population between 900,000 and 1,600,000 in 2013.

Source: Compiled by Donald Grimes and George Fulton, University of Michigan, using data from the American Community Survey 2012. Population data are from the Census Bureau population estimates program as of April 2014.


Figure 3

Growth in U.S. GDP, 2012 –16

The best single measure of the U.S. economy is infl ation-adjusted, or real, Gross Domestic Prod-uct (GDP): all of the goods, services, and struc-tures produced in the economy.

•NOTES

In the next three years, steady consumption growth, solid increases in investment, and a re-covery in combined government purchases pro-duce an accelerating economy—from 2.6 percent in 2014 to 3.3 percent in 2015 and 3.4 percent in 2016. If proven correct, the projections for 2015 and 2016 would be the fi rst annual readings of 3 percent or greater since 2005.

•

The U.S. economy is projected to add 2.2 mil-lion payroll jobs in 2014, about the same as in 2013. As output accelerates over the following two years, employment rises by 2.9 million jobs in 2015 and 3.3 million in 2016.

•

Economic growth of 2.8 percent in 2012 was the strongest for a calendar year since the current re-covery began.

•

2012

2.8

2013

1.9

2014

2.6

20160%

1%

2.5%

3.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.0%

3.0%

2015

3.3

RSQE: March 2014

3.4

In 2013, a sharp deceleration in business invest-ment early in the year and severe fi scal auster-ity at the federal level contributed to signifi cantly weaker growth, 1.9 percent for the calendar year.

•The unemployment rate falls from an annual av-erage of 7.4 percent for 2013 to 5.2 percent in 2016 (see fi gure 8).

•


Figure 4

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, 1990 –2016

Total sales of U.S. light vehicles—cars, minivans, sport utility vehicles, crossovers, and pickup trucks—were in the range of 16 to 17+ million units sold annually from 1999 to 2007.

•NOTES

In the forecast, we reach 16 million units in 2014.•

Pent-up demand continues to be a signifi cant fac-tor in the climb, with the average age of vehicles on the road today still at record levels, and the potential exists for higher participation of younger drivers in the market as the economy continues to improve.

•

Sales then retreated to 10.4 million units by 2009, and have increased in excess of one million units each year since then, reaching 15.5 million units in 2013—but still falling short of the 16 million mark.

•

0

5

10

15

20Millions

'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15RSQE: March 2014

16

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16


After moving up from 15.5 million units in 2013 to 16 million in 2014, U.S. light vehicle sales rise to 16.3 million in 2015 and increase further to 16.7 million by 2016.

•

We see the Detroit Three’s share of the light ve-hicle market drifting up from 44.4 percent in 2013 to 45 percent by 2016.

•

The projections for total sales and the Detroit Three’s share of that market, taken together, yield our outlook for Detroit Three sales, which move up progressively from 6.9 million units in 2013 to 7.5 million by 2016.

•NOTES

This path refl ects a slower rate of increase over the next three years compared with the last two. Detroit Three sales rose by 500,000 units in each of the years 2012 and 2013, only a little less for a single year than the cumulative gain of 600,000 units over the next three years combined.

•

Figure 5

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, Total vs. Detroit Three, 2012 –16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Total

2012 2013 20152014

Millionsof Units

16.015.514.4

16.3 16.7

Detroit Three

6.4 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5

2016

RSQE: March 2014

Annual % Detroit Threemarket share

44.844.4 44.6

44.2

45.0


Figure 6


The Oakland County economy is now entering its fi fth year of recovery since the previous reces-sion’s low point at the end of 2009. Oakland has burst out of the recession, adding almost 50,000 jobs in 2011 and 2012 combined, before settling back to a still-solid gain of 15,734 jobs in 2013.

•

Over the period 2009 to 2013, the county’s job growth (10.4 percent) greatly outpaced both the nation’s (3.9 percent) and the state’s (6.0 per-cent).

•

Job growth accelerates again in the following two years, with the county adding 14,993 jobs in 2015 and 17,027 in 2016.

•NOTES

That growth path generates an increase of almost 43,000 jobs over the next three calendar years—a solid gain of 2.1 percent per year.

•

We see the continuation of a healthy recov-ery through 2016, extending its span to seven years, but with the pace of growth moderating a little more in 2014, with a projected increase of 10,917 jobs. (The annual data indicate a small loss for 2010, but this is an artifact of calculating job changes based on calendar-year averages, which masks the upturn in employment at the be-ginning of 2010.)

•

–70,000–60,000–50,000–40,000–30,000–20,000–10,000

010,00020,00030,00040,000

*Estimate2006 2007 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016

–18,494

–5,801

–20,433

–59,663

24,412

–1,113

24,86515,734 14,99310,917

17,027

Oakland’s recovery is supported by a U.S. econ-omy that continues to expand through 2016, as well as by the county’s strong economic funda-mentals.

•


So job growth continues its upward trajectory, but how much ground are we making up in the recov-ery through 2016 relative to what we lost in the preceding severe decline?

•

From its peak employment quarter in the summer of 2000 to its trough at the end of 2009, the coun-ty lost 166,369 jobs, over half of them occurring in the two-year period spanning 2008 and 2009.

•

From then to the end of 2016, we are forecasting that the county will create an additional 50,231 jobs, thus cumulating to 122,172 job additions from the bottom of the downturn through 2016 (71,941 + 50,231).

•

•

NOTES

That would replenish 73.4 percent, or about three in four, of the jobs lost from the summer of 2000 to the end of 2009. That would also return the county to the job levels posted in mid-2003, three years into the nine-year decline.

•

Figure 7

Total Jobs in Oakland County, Seasonally Adjusted,First Quarter of 2000 to Fourth Quarter of 2016

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000Forecast

’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14’00 ’01 ’15 ’16

Peak ’00q3*

Trough ’09q4 *

’13q3*

’16q4*

Gain:’09q4–’16q4 = 122,172(73.4% of jobs lost)

Loss:’00q3–’09q4 = –166,369

Jobs

Then the recovery follows: from the low point in the fourth quarter of 2009 to the end of the pub-lished data in the third quarter of 2013, Oakland gained 71,941 jobs.

•


Table 4

Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Major Industry Division, 2014 –16*AverageAnnual

Estimate Forecast Employment Change Wage2013 ’13–’14 ’14–’15 ’15–’16 ’13–’16 2012

TOTAL JOBS (Number of persons) 676,153 10,917 14,993 17,027 42,937 $54,840(Annual percentage change) (2.4) (1.6) (2.2) (2.4) TOTAL GOVERNMENT 44,762 -293 216 460 384 50,650 TOTAL PRIVATE 631,391 11,210 14,776 16,567 42,553 55,151 GOODS-PRODUCING 80,461 1,414 1,842 1,957 5,213 69,078 Natural resources, mining, construction 20,860 722 931 979 2,632 61,163

Manufacturing 59,602 692 911 978 2,581 71,802 Fabricated metal products 10,939 313 254 257 824 58,260 Machinery 10,476 111 169 198 478 76,017 Transportation equipment (motor vehicles) 19,344 220 236 256 712 89,429

Other manufacturing 18,842 48 251 269 567 57,900 PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING 550,929 9,796 12,935 14,610 37,340 53,154 Trade, transportation, and utilities 121,020 1,576 1,737 2,073 5,385 48,916 Wholesale trade 36,504 531 766 885 2,182 83,476 Retail trade 74,512 701 631 827 2,159 30,812 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 10,004 344 339 360 1,044 58,510

Information 15,546 -34 131 151 247 72,974 Financial activities 47,919 764 924 1,073 2,761 72,569 Finance and insurance 33,628 594 688 777 2,058 84,200 Real estate and rental and leasing 14,291 171 237 296 703 44,369 Professional and business services 175,133 4,024 6,016 6,376 16,416 67,972 Professional, scientifi c, and technical 97,634 3,151 3,819 4,132 11,102 78,098

Management of companies and enterprises 14,228 549 700 715 1,963 130,516

Administrative support and waste management 63,271 324 1,498 1,530 3,351 39,480

Private education and health services 108,233 2,043 2,530 3,141 7,714 46,520 Private education services 11,385 393 418 571 1,382 35,203 Health care and social assistance 96,848 1,650 2,112 2,571 6,332 47,779 Leisure and hospitality 60,650 1,190 1,273 1,384 3,847 18,490 Other services 20,696 233 323 413 969 30,906 Unclassifi ed 1,733 0 0 0 0 43,357

*Some subtotals do not add to totals due to rounding of annual average computations.


Table 4

Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Major Industry Division, 2014 –16

NOTES

The projected job movements in total shown in fi g-ure 6 are distributed among twenty-eight major in-dustry divisions in table 4, and into 235 fi ner indus-try divisions in appendix A.

• Following a pick-up of 5,756 jobs in 2011, growth in the manufacturing sector decelerated to 2,592 jobs in 2012 and 2,237 in 2013. As the business cycle matures, the job gains in the manufacturing sector slip even further, to only 692 (1.2 percent) in 2014. Over the next three years, the manufacturing sector in Oakland County contributes only 2,581 jobs, or one out of every seventeen jobs added in the coun-ty over this period.

•

The government sector is forecast to lose 293 jobs in 2014, a much reduced rate compared with the prior seven years, when the government sector was shrinking by almost 1,500 jobs a year on average. Government fi nally turns around to add 216 jobs in 2015 and 460 in 2016. By the end of our forecast period in 2016, the government sector accounts for only 6.3 percent of the jobs in the county, down from a peak of 8.3 percent in 2009 and the lowest share since at least 1990, when our data series starts.

•

The aggregate industry category of natural re-sources, mining, and construction gains 2,632 jobs over the next three years, almost all of them in the construction industry, as natural resources and min-ing together add only 11 jobs. All components of the construction industry enjoy relatively strong job growth, with the greatest number of additional jobs (984) being created among building equipment con-tractors such as plumbing, electrical, and HVAC contractors.

•

The step-up in the government sector largely re-fl ects an improvement in the job prospects for K-12 education. Job losses in K-12 education are fore-cast to continue in 2014 but to dwindle by only 52 workers, before turning around to add 301 jobs in 2015 and 463 in 2016.

•

Employment in local government administration de-clines over the next three years, but at a diminishing rate, as revenue growth continues to be relatively weak.

•

Private-sector job gains in 2013 slipped to 16,629 from the extraordinarily large additions recorded in 2011 and 2012. Job growth slows further in 2014, to 11,210, before accelerating to 14,776 in 2015 and 16,567 in 2016. Over the three-year forecast period, the private sector contributes 42,553 job ad-ditions.

•

By 2016, the manufacturing sector accounts for only 8.6 percent of the jobs in the county, down from 16 percent in 1990 and 14 percent in 2000. We expect that its share will continue to slip beyond 2016.

•

Leading the early stages of the recovery was trans-portation equipment (motor vehicle) manufacturing, which added 3,037 jobs (21.8 percent) in 2011 and 2,290 (13.5 percent) in 2012. In 2013, however, the local motor vehicle manufacturing industry is esti-mated to have gained only 89 jobs, and while we are forecasting that job growth in the industry will accelerate during the forecast period, it will be at a modest pace of 1.1 to 1.3 percent a year, accumu-lating to a job gain of only 712 over the next three years.

•

By 2016, transportation equipment manufactur-ing accounts for only 2.8 percent of the jobs in the county, down from 6.2 percent in 1990 and 6 per-cent in 2000.

•

Some of the other manufacturing industries that are forecast to see job growth over the next three years are fabricated metals (824), machinery (478), plas-tics (391), and chemicals (182). Printing, nonmetal-lic mineral products, primary metals, and computer and electronic product manufacturing lose jobs over the same period.

•

Wholesale trade sees accelerating job growth over the next three years, accumulating to a gain of 2,182 jobs, with the industry paying relatively high average wages ($83,476 in 2012).

•


Table 4

Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Major Industry Division, 2014 –16

NOTES

Retail trade, a much larger and generally lower-paying sector than wholesale trade, adds 2,159 jobs over the next three years. Job gains are con-centrated in motor vehicle and parts dealers (517), building material and garden supply stores (468), clothing stores (422), and warehouse clubs and supercenters (308). Furniture stores, health and personal care stores, gasoline stations, department stores, and non-store retailers all lose a relatively small number of jobs over the forecast period.

• Job growth in professional services is concentrated in engineering services (4,534) and testing labora-tories (2,293) over the forecast period. Along with company management, which adds 1,963 jobs over the next three years, these industries form the core of the white-collar auto industry. All of them are forecast to add many more jobs than the blue-col-lar factory-based part of the auto industry. Indeed, Oakland County’s auto industry is the best example of how the industry is converting from a factory-based industry to an offi ce-based enterprise.

•

Transportation, warehousing, and utilities see strong job gains over the next three years, accumulating to 1,044 jobs or a gain of 10.4 percent. All of these ad-ditions occur in transportation; the utilities industry is forecast to add only 5 jobs and warehousing is expected to decline.

•

Between 2009 and 2013, employment in profes-sional services exploded by 21,588 jobs (28.4 per-cent). This aggregate industry category is the heart of the knowledge economy, and in Oakland County it is closely identifi ed with the motor vehicle indus-try. Over the next three years, we expect that this industry category will continue to grow, albeit at a somewhat more subdued pace, adding 11,102 jobs (11.4 percent).

•

Only modest job growth is projected for the infor-mation sector over the next three years (247 jobs or 1.6 percent), as technological change reduces the need for workers in newspaper publishing. The other components of the information sector see only small job increases.

•

The fi nance and insurance industry contributes 2,058 jobs over the next three years, as commercial banking and other lending establishments, as well as securities and investment banking, add jobs at a healthy clip. Employment in the insurance compo-nent of this industry grows at a modest pace.

•

The real estate and rental and leasing industry sees moderate growth over the next three years (703 jobs or 4.9 percent), as the real estate industry continues to recover. Note that most real estate agents are self-employed and thus are not included in these statistics.

•

Some other professional service industries that are expected to see relatively strong job growth are computer systems design (1,672) and legal servic-es (796).

•

Administrative and waste management services gain 3,351 jobs over the next three years, with most of the jobs being added in employment services.

•

Employment in private education services increas-es by 1,382 jobs over the forecast period. Most of these job gains occur in trade and technical schools as opposed to private elementary and secondary schools or private four-year colleges.

•

Health care and social assistance adds 6,332 jobs over the forecast period. Within this sector, the larg-est job gains occur in hospitals (1,217), offi ces of physicians (896), home health care services (853), community care facilities for the elderly (744), and individual and family services (715). Efforts to re-duce the growth in health care spending, particu-larly Medicare payments, could reduce the rate of growth in health care employment. On the other hand, the aging of the baby boom generation en-sures that the demand for health care services will increase.

•

The leisure and hospitality services category gains 3,847 jobs (6.3 percent) over the next three years. Full-service restaurants add 2,047 jobs (8.8 per-cent), and limited-service restaurants (i.e., fast-food restaurants) contribute 706 jobs (4.2 percent). Em-ployment in accommodations (including hotels and motels) grows by 347 jobs (9.6 percent).

•

The other services division, which includes a wide variety of industries, grows by 969 jobs over the forecast period. The largest gains are in member-ship organizations (558) and personal care services (262).

•


In comparing the composition of the twenty in-dustries having the largest employment gains be-tween the historical period from 2010 to 2013 and the forecast period from 2013 to 2016, we fi nd both consistencies and changing patterns.

•

As in the earlier period, job gains among high-er-wage industries in the forecast period still dominate and the counts match: in both periods, twelve of the industries have wage levels above the average for the county overall, including six of the top eight.

•

Several industries in the professional and busi-ness services sector continue to have a promi-nent presence in the forecast period, particularly at the top of the rankings, but there is also more diffusion of the recovery into other industries. In particular, health services are more represented in the top twenty job providers in the forecast pe-riod than in the prior three years.

•

Other newcomers to the list are banking, and el-ementary and secondary schools. The most dra-matic change in position occurs with employment services (temporary help), which is not on the earlier list but is forecast to be the second-largest job provider over the next three years.

•

NOTES

Four of the top fi ve industries for job creation are the same in both periods: engineering services, testing laboratories, headquarters activity, and full-service restaurants. Engineering services is the No. 1 job creator in both periods by a signifi -cant margin.

•

Table 5


The more advanced stages of the recovery do usher in some differences as well. Perhaps most notable, auto manufacturing makes a much smaller contribution in the forecast period, and its ranking slips from 2 in the earlier period to 18 in the later period. Fabricated metals manufactur-ing retreats from 6 to 16. This is a typical pattern for manufacturing as a recovery moves into its more mature stages.

•

Oakland County has been investing for years in many of the industries that are becoming increas-ingly prominent in the New Economy, particularly those associated with professional and business services as well as health services.

•


Table 5


IndustryChange2013 –16

% Change2013 –16

Average Wage2012

Total payroll jobs 42,937 6.4 $54,840Engineering services 4,534 20.7 71,733Employment services 2,378 7.4 42,190Testing laboratories 2,293 13.9 84,582Full-service restaurants 2,047 8.8 17,055Management of companies and enterprises 1,963 13.8 130,516Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 1,827 7.7 89,371Construction, specialty trade contractors 1,761 13.4 58,112Computer systems design and related services 1,672 8.3 81,025Nursing and residential care facilities 1,543 10.0 26,214Hospitals 1,217 3.8 56,981Credit intermediation and related activities 1,122 7.5 76,762Social assistance 1,045 11.0 22,190Transportation and warehousing 1,039 11.9 47,604Offi ces of physicians 896 6.0 76,865Home health care services 853 9.1 32,554Fabricated metals manufacturing 824 7.5 58,260Legal services 796 6.7 80,549Transportation equipment manufacturing 712 3.7 89,429Local government, elementary and secondary schools 712 3.4 51,828Limited-service restaurants 706 4.2 12,836


Figure 8


The solid job growth we are projecting for Oakland County is accompanied by an unemployment rate that continues to decline over the forecast period, from 8.1 percent in 2013 to 6.4 percent in 2014, then falling further to 5.8 percent in 2015 and 5.0 percent in 2016.

• Oakland’s unemployment rate was 3.6 percent-age points above the U.S. rate in 2009 (12.9 percent versus 9.3 percent), but the gap has nar-rowed consistently and dramatically since then, to seven-tenths of a percentage point in 2013 (8.1 percent versus 7.4 percent).

•

NOTES

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

9.3 9.68.9

8.17.4

12.912.4

10.2

9.1

8.1

6.5

6.4

5.95.8

5.2

5.0Oakland

United States

Forecast

The drop of 3.1 percentage points over the three-year period brings the jobless rate down into the neighborhood of where it was in 2002, in the ear-lier stages of the economic decline of the 2000s.

•

The county labor force grew briskly in 2013, as increasingly more job seekers were drawn in by improving job opportunities. We are forecasting that the labor force will continue to see solid ex-pansion through 2016. If, instead, the labor force expands at a slower rate than we anticipate, then the unemployment rate would fall more rapidly with the employment gains we are projecting.

•

We are forecasting that the nation and the county will switch positions in 2014, with the county job-less rate falling to a tenth of a percentage point below the U.S. rate, and Oakland maintaining a one- to two-tenths of a percentage point advan-tage in 2015 and 2016. The county rate was con-sistently lower than the U.S. rate from 1993 to 2003, before the worst of the extended downturn in Michigan locked in.

•


Figure 9

Infl ation Rate, Detroit CPI, 2012–16

NOTES

Local infl ation is measured here by the growth rate of the Detroit Consumer Price Index (CPI), representing the Detroit metro area, as consumer price data are not compiled for the county in iso-lation.

•

Local consumer price infl ation remains in check for the next three years, settling in under 2 per-cent for each year: 1.1 percent in 2014, 1.5 per-cent in 2015, and 1.8 percent in 2016, following a rate of 1.6 percent for 2013.

•Our expectation of subdued growth in energy prices also contributes to the moderate infl ation profi le going forward.

•

Local infl ation runs two- to three-tenths of a per-centage point below the U.S. rate throughout the forecast period.

•

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1.62.0

1.51.1

1.8

2013 20152014 20162012

A domestic labor market where wage gains exert only modest pressure on prices, along with slug-gish growth in import prices, restrains infl ation throughout the forecast period.

•


Appendix A

Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry Division Average Annual Estimate Forecast Wage 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012

TOTAL PAYROLL JOBS (Number of persons) 676,153 687,070 702,063 719,090 $54,840 (Annual percentage change) (2.4) (1.6) (2.2) (2.4) N.A TOTAL GOVERNMENT 44,762 44,470 44,686 45,146 50,650 Federal government 4,698 4,665 4,691 4,730 66,567 Postal Service 3,528 3,530 3,571 3,621 60,131 Federal government NEC 1,170 1,136 1,120 1,109 85,033 State and local government 40,064 39,804 39,995 40,416 48,820 Local libraries 532 537 546 556 20,047 Local education and health services 23,153 23,110 23,409 23,871 50,794 Elementary and secondary schools 20,913 20,861 21,162 21,624 51,828 Other education and health services 2,240 2,249 2,247 2,247 41,168 Local public administration 12,034 11,845 11,752 11,701 46,391 State and other local government 4,345 4,312 4,288 4,288 48,321

TOTAL PRIVATE 631,391 642,601 657,377 673,944 55,151 GOODS-PRODUCING 80,461 81,876 83,717 85,674 69,078 Natural resources and mining 593 596 598 604 33,506 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 467 472 471 475 22,264 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 126 125 127 130 73,850 Construction 20,267 20,986 21,915 22,887 62,049 Construction of buildings 5,414 5,611 5,830 6,063 69,317 Residential 2,719 2,824 2,968 3,138 64,771 Nonresidential 2,695 2,787 2,861 2,925 74,178 Heavy and civil engineering construction 1,684 1,728 1,794 1,894 69,805 Utility systems 780 808 828 854 57,196 Land subdivision 203 195 215 258 71,724 Highway, street, and bridge construction 671 701 728 757 85,287 Other heavy construction 29 25 23 25 48,019 Specialty trade contractors 13,169 13,647 14,290 14,930 58,112 Building foundation and exterior 1,915 1,943 2,039 2,133 48,743 Building equipment 7,758 8,070 8,416 8,742 64,948 Building finishing 1,990 2,035 2,092 2,148 44,968 Other specialty trade contractors 1,505 1,599 1,744 1,907 53,677 Manufacturing 59,602 60,294 61,205 62,183 71,802 Food 838 854 874 895 25,896 Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing 379 403 416 430 16,572 Food manufacturing NEC 459 452 458 466 32,993 Textile products 126 127 132 137 28,929 Wood products 118 128 133 139 35,370 Paper products 212 212 219 223 57,021 Printing and related support activities 1,787 1,752 1,709 1,669 51,226 Chemicals 2,732 2,794 2,854 2,915 85,324 Plastics and rubber products 3,173 3,255 3,413 3,564 49,401 Nonmetallic mineral products 984 965 965 968 52,687 Primary metals 1,421 1,360 1,334 1,317 56,863 Fabricated metals 10,939 11,252 11,506 11,763 58,260 Forging and stamping 940 999 1,034 1,066 54,181 Architectural and structural metals 710 696 697 698 51,129 Machine shops and threaded products 4,071 4,259 4,355 4,450 65,370 Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals 2,093 2,161 2,270 2,380 48,609 Other fabricated metals 1,614 1,620 1,629 1,639 62,563 Fabricated metals NEC 1,509 1,516 1,523 1,531 56,186


Appendix A continued

Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry DivisionAppendix A continued

Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry Division Average Annual Estimate Forecast Wage 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 Machinery 10,476 10,587 10,756 10,954 $76,017 Industrial machinery 722 733 741 750 73,917 Commercial and service industry machinery 492 490 505 520 69,264 Metalworking machinery 5,299 5,341 5,362 5,400 74,256 Turbine and power transmission equipment 555 558 564 572 63,643 Other general purpose machinery 3,072 3,127 3,235 3,351 84,883 Machinery NEC 337 338 349 360 57,161 Computer and electronic products 2,528 2,397 2,389 2,385 64,252 Semiconductors and electronic components 1,451 1,347 1,341 1,336 58,655 Electronic instruments 797 770 764 760 68,147 Computer and electronic products NEC 280 280 285 289 90,328 Electrical equipment, appliances, components 1,075 1,080 1,097 1,113 61,900 Transportation equipment 19,344 19,565 19,801 20,056 89,429 Motor vehicle bodies and trailers 798 858 918 977 108,348 Aerospace products and parts 1,098 1,121 1,144 1,164 71,565 Transportation equipment NEC 17,448 17,585 17,739 17,915 89,654 Furniture and related products 437 433 439 443 47,482 Miscellaneous manufacturing 2,555 2,608 2,650 2,693 52,274 Medical equipment and supplies 938 959 983 1,007 48,838 Other miscellaneous manufacturing 1,616 1,649 1,668 1,686 54,324 Manufacturing NEC 856 925 932 948 49,186

PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING 550,929 560,725 573,660 588,270 53,154 Trade, transportation, and utilities 121,020 122,595 124,332 126,405 48,916 Wholesale trade 36,504 37,034 37,800 38,685 83,476 Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 23,611 24,121 24,718 25,438 89,371 Motor vehicles and parts 4,934 5,109 5,299 5,528 85,466 Commercial equipment 6,002 6,020 6,098 6,206 106,006 Office equipment 1,051 1,039 1,040 1,047 64,817 Computers and software 3,001 2,976 2,970 2,980 140,290 Medical equipment 1,374 1,418 1,487 1,564 76,621 Commercial equipment NEC 575 587 601 616 73,413 Electric goods 4,033 4,136 4,237 4,354 95,124 Machinery and supply 4,663 4,808 4,948 5,126 83,502 Industrial machinery 3,230 3,323 3,454 3,607 83,738 Machinery and supply NEC 1,433 1,485 1,493 1,519 82,926 Merchant wholesalers, durable goods NEC 3,979 4,046 4,136 4,224 68,958 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods 6,956 7,054 7,244 7,430 66,820 Paper and paper products 399 409 414 416 74,776 Druggists’ goods 1,956 1,987 2,079 2,170 61,271 Groceries and related products 1,504 1,516 1,562 1,602 49,382 Chemicals 1,063 1,102 1,125 1,151 98,728 Miscellaneous nondurable goods 1,241 1,251 1,271 1,292 64,321 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods NEC 793 789 794 798 72,071 Wholesale electronic markets, agents, brokers 5,936 5,860 5,838 5,818 79,244 Retail trade 74,512 75,213 75,844 76,672 30,812 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 8,976 9,168 9,333 9,494 57,270 Furniture and home furnishings stores 2,490 2,460 2,456 2,458 31,525 Electronics and appliance stores 4,258 4,253 4,292 4,350 43,011 Building material and garden supply dealers 6,108 6,289 6,435 6,577 36,956 Food and beverage stores 10,779 10,843 10,901 10,996 23,185 Health and personal care stores 5,574 5,547 5,542 5,539 35,005



Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry Division Average Annual Estimate Forecast Wage 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 Retail trade (continued) Gasoline stations 1,879 1,861 1,850 1,843 $17,033 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 8,429 8,554 8,664 8,852 19,115 Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 4,061 4,070 4,078 4,106 22,645 General merchandise stores 16,001 16,159 16,259 16,366 22,109 Department stores, except discount 4,194 4,224 4,202 4,193 24,334 Discount department stores 4,582 4,551 4,561 4,570 18,625 Warehouse clubs and supercenters 6,170 6,307 6,394 6,478 25,563 All other general merchandise stores 1,055 1,077 1,102 1,126 15,240 Miscellaneous store retailers 5,021 5,097 5,135 5,200 32,085 Nonstore retailers 936 911 900 891 58,299 Transportation and warehousing 8,756 9,093 9,434 9,795 47,604 Truck transportation 2,593 2,765 2,921 3,080 51,663 Couriers and messengers 1,420 1,422 1,439 1,460 47,137 Warehousing and storage 1,343 1,315 1,298 1,289 58,441 Transportation and warehousing NEC 3,400 3,591 3,775 3,966 39,885 Utilities 1,248 1,255 1,254 1,253 133,249 Information 15,546 15,512 15,643 15,793 72,974 Publishing (except Internet) 3,749 3,721 3,706 3,701 88,172 Newspaper, book, and directory publishers 1,882 1,822 1,794 1,772 66,554 Software publishers 1,867 1,898 1,912 1,929 109,342 Motion pictures and sound recording 1,985 1,940 1,946 1,956 29,179 Motion picture and video production 427 412 398 385 72,883 Motion picture and video exhibition 1,359 1,329 1,347 1,368 10,991 Motion pictures and sound recording NEC 199 198 201 203 62,214 Broadcasting (except Internet) 1,428 1,444 1,474 1,504 89,826 Telecommunications 5,861 5,871 5,924 5,983 73,780 Wireless telecommunications carriers 948 915 908 904 87,718 Telecommunications NEC 4,913 4,956 5,016 5,079 70,657 Data processing, hosting, and related services 1,993 1,950 1,998 2,049 69,516 Information NEC 529 587 594 600 102,330 Financial activities 47,919 48,683 49,607 50,680 72,569 Finance and insurance 33,628 34,222 34,909 35,686 84,200 Credit intermediation and related activities 15,042 15,401 15,772 16,164 76,762 Depository credit intermediation 9,289 9,330 9,431 9,581 70,519 Commercial banking 6,696 6,739 6,824 6,956 73,766 Depository credit intermediation NEC 2,593 2,591 2,606 2,626 59,228 Nondepository credit intermediation 5,097 5,379 5,589 5,768 94,296 Real estate credit intermediation 1,904 2,078 2,197 2,303 78,405 Nondepository credit intermediation NEC 3,193 3,301 3,392 3,465 101,476 Activities related to credit intermediation 656 693 753 815 66,275 Mortgage and nonmortgage loan brokers 348 373 415 458 78,832 Activities related to credit intermediation NEC 308 319 338 357 53,740 Securities, commodity contracts, investments 4,366 4,467 4,639 4,841 137,234 Insurance carriers and related activities 14,174 14,308 14,452 14,636 76,729 Insurance carriers 7,656 7,670 7,686 7,727 83,022 Direct property and casualty insurers 2,002 2,014 2,035 2,058 88,540 Insurance carriers NEC 5,654 5,656 5,650 5,669 80,718 Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related 6,518 6,638 6,767 6,909 69,217 Insurance agencies and brokerages 4,709 4,827 4,932 5,048 72,018 Other insurance-related activities 1,809 1,812 1,834 1,862 62,126 Finance and insurance NEC 46 46 46 45 76,911



Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry Division Average Annual Estimate Forecast Wage 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 Real estate and rental and leasing 14,291 14,461 14,698 14,994 $44,369 Real estate 11,123 11,237 11,458 11,721 44,026 Lessors of real estate 5,257 5,263 5,328 5,397 40,010 Offices of real estate agents and brokers 1,252 1,300 1,406 1,520 45,856 Activities related to real estate 4,615 4,674 4,724 4,804 47,689 Rental and leasing services 2,746 2,793 2,793 2,810 41,294 Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets 422 432 447 463 76,828 Professional and business services 175,133 179,157 185,173 191,549 67,972 Professional and technical services 97,634 100,785 104,604 108,736 78,098 Legal services 11,884 12,130 12,403 12,680 80,549 Accounting and bookkeeping services 5,996 5,956 5,977 6,032 63,567 Architectural and engineering services 39,995 41,869 44,366 47,081 77,127 Architectural services 1,185 1,230 1,295 1,375 74,662 Engineering services 21,920 23,226 24,796 26,454 71,733 Testing laboratories 16,492 16,980 17,824 18,785 84,582 Engineering services NEC 398 433 451 467 60,065 Specialized design services 2,501 2,644 2,800 3,007 87,347 Computer systems design and related services 20,025 20,540 21,108 21,697 81,025 Management and technical consulting services 7,270 7,432 7,598 7,754 77,092 Scientific research and development services 1,304 1,345 1,393 1,440 186,215 Advertising, PR, and related services 4,321 4,395 4,384 4,370 79,605 Other professional and technical services 4,338 4,474 4,576 4,675 50,860 Management of companies and enterprises 14,228 14,777 15,477 16,191 130,516 Administrative support and waste management 63,271 63,595 65,093 66,623 39,480 Administrative and support services 62,180 62,562 64,091 65,631 39,251 Office administrative services 3,637 3,701 3,848 4,031 60,751 Employment services 32,031 32,285 33,375 34,409 42,190 Business support services 6,211 6,335 6,468 6,606 42,616 Investigation and security services 5,257 5,277 5,264 5,264 23,705 Services to buildings and dwellings 11,373 11,239 11,337 11,456 23,761 Other support services 2,387 2,410 2,468 2,522 66,046 Administrative and support services NEC 1,284 1,314 1,332 1,343 43,773 Waste management and remediation services 1,091 1,033 1,002 991 53,486 Private education and health services 108,233 110,276 112,806 115,947 46,520 Education services 11,385 11,778 12,196 12,767 35,203 Elementary and secondary schools 4,141 4,265 4,368 4,541 36,085 Colleges and universities 2,356 2,303 2,309 2,376 37,460 Education services NEC 4,888 5,210 5,519 5,851 32,921 Health care and social assistance 96,848 98,498 100,609 103,180 47,779 Ambulatory health care 40,119 40,819 41,637 42,646 53,766 Offices of physicians 14,856 15,085 15,375 15,752 76,865 Offices of dentists 5,781 5,820 5,875 5,955 47,571 Offices of other health practitioners 4,192 4,271 4,354 4,437 41,078 Outpatient care centers 2,546 2,539 2,549 2,569 52,843 Medical and diagnostic laboratories 2,236 2,267 2,327 2,445 47,737 Home health care services 9,353 9,632 9,916 10,207 32,554 Other ambulatory health care services 1,154 1,205 1,242 1,282 38,877 Hospitals 31,834 32,150 32,569 33,051 56,981 Nursing and residential care facilities 15,398 15,771 16,302 16,941 26,214 Nursing care facilities 4,861 4,899 5,035 5,230 30,643 Residential mental health facilities 2,919 2,949 3,032 3,138 23,664



Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry Division Average Annual Estimate Forecast Wage 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 Nursing and residential care facilities (continued) Community care facilities for the elderly 5,978 6,206 6,452 6,722 24,802 Other residential care facilities 1,641 1,718 1,783 1,851 22,050 Social assistance 9,497 9,757 10,101 10,542 22,190 Individual and family services 4,704 4,859 5,092 5,419 23,194 Child day care services 3,473 3,540 3,601 3,662 18,089 Social assistance NEC 1,319 1,358 1,408 1,461 29,112 Leisure and hospitality 60,650 61,841 63,114 64,497 18,490 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 8,792 8,881 9,102 9,348 32,815 Spectator sports 1,064 1,088 1,127 1,157 99,307 Golf courses and country clubs 2,004 1,984 2,041 2,110 24,481 Fitness and recreational sports centers 3,815 3,873 3,956 4,063 17,011 Arts, entertainment, and recreation NEC 1,909 1,936 1,978 2,017 35,887 Accommodation and food services 51,859 52,959 54,011 55,149 16,085 Accommodation 3,617 3,748 3,855 3,963 23,313 Food services and drinking places 48,242 49,211 50,156 51,186 15,551 Restaurants and other eating places 42,556 43,526 44,417 45,391 15,209 Full-service restaurants 23,349 24,061 24,725 25,396 17,055 Limited-service restaurants 16,707 16,981 17,170 17,412 12,836 Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets 436 442 460 475 17,358 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 2,064 2,041 2,061 2,108 14,051 Special food services 3,761 3,717 3,733 3,751 19,328 Drinking places, alcoholic beverages 1,925 1,969 2,007 2,044 15,119 Other services 20,696 20,928 21,252 21,665 30,906 Repair and maintenance 5,329 5,396 5,435 5,489 40,597 Automotive repair and maintenance 3,752 3,802 3,833 3,876 38,768 Repair and maintenance NEC 1,577 1,593 1,602 1,613 45,052 Personal and laundry services 7,851 7,985 8,111 8,267 23,727 Personal care services 4,657 4,714 4,805 4,919 22,140 Personal and laundry services NEC 3,194 3,271 3,306 3,348 26,124 Membership associations and organizations 6,019 6,125 6,336 6,577 34,001 Private households 1,496 1,423 1,370 1,332 19,849 Private unclassified service-providing 1,733 1,733 1,733 1,733 43,357

Addendum Unemployment rate 8.1 6.4 5.8 5.0


Appendix B

Oakland County Compared with 35 U.S. Counties of Similar Size*Indicator Values

High-Income

Associate’s Median Persons

Population Degree Child Family Aged 65 Managerial,County State 2013 or More Poverty Income or Older Professional

Fairfax VA 1,130,924 65.1% 7.8% $104,959 61.6% 55.0%

Montgomery MD 1,016,677 63.4% 7.0% 94,832 54.4% 56.1%

Middlesex MA 1,552,802 61.1% 9.4% 88,309 37.0% 52.3%

Bergen NJ 925,328 55.8% 10.1% 83,693 42.2% 46.5%

Fairfi eld CT 939,904 55.4% 11.0% 86,922 43.0% 44.5%

Nassau NY 1,352,146 53.7% 9.0% 91,095 44.1% 41.6%

Westchester NY 968,802 54.8% 12.7% 84,825 43.6% 44.9%

DuPage IL 932,126 56.8% 10.1% 81,645 37.6% 44.4%

Wake NC 974,289 58.1% 15.5% 70,852 37.5% 48.8%

Hennepin MN 1,198,778 58.0% 17.9% 71,627 32.3% 47.8%

Oakland MI 1,231,640 54.4% 14.4% 71,047 32.8% 46.7%Suffolk NY 1,499,738 45.5% 8.5% 81,669 41.1% 38.5%

Contra Costa CA 1,094,205 48.8% 14.9% 73,013 39.3% 43.3%

Alameda CA 1,578,891 51.8% 17.4% 72,746 34.4% 46.5%

Fulton GA 984,293 56.8% 25.0% 64,265 31.9% 48.4%

Travis TX 1,120,954 50.8% 26.4% 60,464 40.9% 45.1%

St. Louis MO 1,001,444 51.8% 19.1% 63,601 28.6% 42.1%

Honolulu HI 983,429 45.8% 15.3% 64,761 39.4% 35.3%

Allegheny PA 1,231,527 53.0% 18.6% 60,308 22.3% 43.3%

Mecklenburg NC 990,977 50.6% 21.8% 57,777 29.5% 41.8%

Salt Lake UT 1,079,721 42.0% 17.1% 57,108 28.0% 37.7%

Franklin OH 1,212,263 47.1% 25.2% 52,783 27.0% 41.2%

Erie PA 919,866 46.9% 20.5% 57,895 22.5% 36.9%

Palm Beach FL 1,372,171 42.6% 22.5% 48,291 34.3% 35.6%

Pinellas FL 929,048 40.3% 20.2% 49,022 21.1% 37.0%

Sacramento CA 1,462,131 37.6% 27.1% 50,580 27.4% 37.0%

Cuyahoga OH 1,263,154 40.6% 26.9% 48,970 20.2% 37.9%

Hillsborough FL 1,291,578 41.3% 27.2% 46,445 21.6% 37.2%

Pima AZ 996,554 38.3% 29.2% 46,638 27.4% 36.0%

Orange FL 1,225,267 42.7% 27.2% 44,183 23.5% 34.8%

Shelby TN 939,465 37.4% 32.8% 45,295 25.9% 35.0%

Milwaukee WI 956,023 38.9% 32.4% 46,152 19.8% 34.7%

Marion IN 928,281 38.2% 32.8% 42,623 19.0% 32.8%

Philadelphia PA 1,553,165 32.4% 36.8% 33,787 16.8% 36.5%

Fresno CA 955,272 26.8% 40.8% 34,918 20.3% 28.3%

Bronx NY 1,418,733 26.8% 44.5% 24,292 15.4% 23.8%

*All counties in the United States with a population between 900,000 and 1,600,000 in 2013.

Source: Compiled by Donald Grimes and George Fulton, University of Michigan, using data from the American Community Survey 2012. Population data are from the Census Bureau population estimates program as of April 2014.

oakland county economic outlook 2014 - 2016

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