oamic federal and political update october 24, 2013 · namic •largest p/c trade association with...
TRANSCRIPT
OAMIC Federal and Political Update
October 24, 2013
Jimi Grande SVP Federal and Political Affairs [email protected]
Presentation Outline
• About NAMIC
• Washington Outlook
• Key Federal Issues
• 2014 Elections
NAMIC
• Largest P/C trade association with 1,400 member companies • More than 135,000,000 policyholders served • More than $196 billion in annual premiums • 50% of the U.S. auto/homeowners market • 30% of the U.S. commercial market • More than 200,000 people employed by NAMIC members
NAMIC Advocacy Staff
• 8 State Legislative Lobbyists • 5 Federal Lobbyists • 7 Public Policy Experts • 5 Communications/Political Affairs professionals
25 full-time Advocates
Washington Outlook
Second Term
• Gun Control
• Immigration Reform
• Climate Change
• Tax / Debt Ceiling / Deficit
President’s Ambitious New Priorities:
Presidents tend to run into trouble during their second terms
Analysis •The novelty is wearing off, energy is waning, administration is running out of fresh ideas, and the A-team from the first term has largely
moved on •In the past, recessions, scandals, and wars have plagued second-term Presidents—this second term appears to be no exception
•In years 5 through 8, voters often become increasingly open to the idea of change
The President’s Second-Term Jinx
President Pitfall
G.W. Bush Iraq War
Clinton Lewinsky Scandal
Reagan Iran Contra Scandal
Nixon/Ford Watergate Scandal/Impeachment/Pardon
Kennedy/Johnson Vietnam War
Eisenhower Recessions in 1958 and 1960
Second-term pitfalls among presidents
Year President Party Pres. Party Seat Change: House Pres. Party Seat Change: Senate
2006 G.W. Bush Republican -30 -6
1998 Clinton Democrat +5 0
1986 Reagan Republican -5 -8
1974 Nixon/Ford Republican -48 -4
1966 Kennedy/Johnson Democrat -48 -4
1958 Eisenhower Republican -48 -12
Average -29 -6
Analysis The President’s party has been hammered in the House and/or Senate in five of the last six “six-year itch” elections since World War II
The president’s party fares poorly in second-term midterm elections
The Six-Year Itch
Change in congressional party makeup after midterm elections during president’s second term
The President’s Second-Term Jinx
Analysis The President’s party has lost five of the last six post-World War II presidential elections which have followed two-term presidencies
Since WWII, President’s Party Has Lost Five of Six Attempts for Third Term
* Lost electoral vote, won popular vote
Year President Party President’s Party Election Result
2008 G.W. Bush Republican Lost White House
2000 Clinton Democrat Lost White House*
1988 Reagan Republican Won White House
1976 Nixon/Ford Republican Lost White House
1968 Kennedy/Johnson Democrat Lost White House
1960 Eisenhower Republican Lost White House
President’s party election results after two-term presidency
The President’s Second-Term Jinx
What Dominated Early Second Term
James Rosen IRS Scandal
Benghazi Associated Press
NSA
Syria
The New Crisis: Showdowns, Shutdowns, Cliffs and Ceilings
• Showdown – Showboating or Irreconcilable differences • October 1 Shutdown – What really happened? • Fiscal Cliff – The country is on an unsustainable glide
path that has not been dealt with. Only postponed.
• New budget deal Jan 15.
• Debt Ceiling reached again by March.
• Default vs. Actual Shutdown
• Deal = Sequestration vs. Entitlements
• Impact on 2014
Executive Branch
• Declared gridlock unworkable • Goal became to marginalize and
ignore Congress • Ruling through Rules:
• FCC fees on cell phones • New rules for coal plants • Implementation of DFA • Implementation of ACA
Who’s Really in Charge?
• The 112th Congress passed 220 laws, slightly down from an average Congress who passes about 400.
• Federal Regulators have been passing/publishing nearly 4,000 rules each year
• More than 180,000 rules are on the books
• Around 81,000 pages have been added each year
Growing Regulatory Reach • Threat of Optional Federal Charter – You wish!
• Federal Reserve applies to join IAIS
• IAIS proposes global capital standards
• G-20 – FSB Peer Review
• FIO Report on Regulatory Modernization
• FSOC designates Prudential and AIG
• Rep. Ed Royce attacking NAIC
• FIO, FACI, CFPB, FSOC…. EPA, HUD
HUD Disparate Impact Rule
Department of Housing and Urban Development
HUD Disparate Impact Rule
• Proposed 11/15/12, Finalized 2/15/13, Effective Date 3/18/13
• Established standards determining when a housing practice with discriminatory effects violates the Fair Housing Act (FHA)
• Disparate Impact – legitimate practice may be considered discriminatory and illegal if they have a disproportionate "adverse impact" on members of a minority group
• Would apply to "the provision and pricing of homeowner’s insurance”
• Could threaten use of any underwriting factor
Magner v. Gallagher
• City of St. Paul vs. slum lords
• Case pending before SCOTUS
• Disparate Impact on table – favorable ruling likely
• Petitioners drop case two weeks prior to oral arguments beginning
DOJ / HUD Scandal • Congressional investigation launched in Sept. 2012
• Alleges top DOJ and HUD officials negotiated a quid pro quo with St. Paul in order to get it to withdraw Magner to protect the disparate impact
standard
• In exchange, the DOJ would decline to intervene in an unrelated False Claims Act suit against city
• The DOJ case could have returned $180 million to the federal government
Mount Holly, N.J. v. Mount Holly Gardens Citizens in Action
• A writ of certiorari was filed June 11, 2012 • Asked SCOTUS to rule that HUD had no
authority under FHA to apply a disparate impact rule
• Certiorari Granted on June 17, 2013 • Limited to the question of whether
Disparate Impact is permitted under the FHA • Positive ruling would effectively nullify
the HUD rule
• January 2012 comments
• Congressional oversight through hearings, letters and appropriations language
• NCOIL resolution asking HUD to “expressly disclaim from the purview of the proposed rule any impact on…homeowners insurance”
• Trades meeting with OIRA
• Leading trades legal team developing strategy
Industry Pursues all Avenues
NAMIC and AIA File Suit
• NAMIC and AIA filed a Complaint for Declaratory and Injunctive Relief on June 26, 2013
• Alleges that the Disparate-Impact Rule reaches beyond HUD’s statutory authority under the FHA
• Requests the court to declare that the Disparate-Impact Rule is unlawful
• HUD seeks a stay of our litigation, pending resolution of Mt Holly
• NAMIC, AIA, PCI and IIABA file joint Amicus in Mt. Holly September 3, 2013
• Supreme Court agrees to hear oral arguments on December 4, 2013
Key Legislative Issues
• Terrorism Insurance
• Build Strong Coalition
• NFIP – Rolling Back Reform
• PARTS ACT
Terrorism Risk Insurance Program
• Market post 9-11
• Lack of terrorism coverage impacted $15.5 bn. in commercial real estate transactions; cost 300,000 construction jobs
• TRIA passed in 2002 – reauthorized in 2005, 2007
• TRIA is for commercial P/C insurance; acts as reinsurance in event of certified terrorist event
• Private sector contributes up to $27.5 billion • 20% Deductible • 15% Co-Pay • $100 M event trigger • TRIA only costs the government a small sum unless there’s a terrorist attack
A Brief History of TRIA
Wide-Reaching Policyholder Base
• Businesses
• Ports
• Hospitals
• Museums
• Casinos
• Commercial Property Owners
• Multifamily Property Owners
• Public Utilities
• Stadiums
• Financial Institutions
• Municipalities
• Manufacturers
• Universities
• Many others…
Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 Reauthorization
Michael Grimm, R-N.Y. introduced H.R. 508 on Feb. 5
• 5-year reauthorization
Benny Thompson, D-Miss. – Ranking member of Homeland Security Committee, introduced H.R. 1945 on May 9
• 10-year reauthorization Michael Capuano, D-Mass. – Ranking member of the Insurance Subcommittee, introduced H.R. 2146 on May 23
• 10-year reauthorization
128 Cosponsors from 29 States + D.C.
TRIA Renewal in the 113th Congress • Current Terrorism Risk Insurance Program authorized through
December 31, 2014.
• Lapse in program would immediately cause technical default of commercial loans and the devaluing of over $1 trillion in commercial mortgage backed securities.
• Commercial insurance policies with terrorism coverage would also be null and void if the program expires.
• New commercial lending will be impacted if no signals of Congressional intent by at least 6 months prior to expiration.
• Two Congressional Hearings in September. Reauthorization is facing a stiff head wind.
Safe Building Code Incentive Act
Strong building codes are good for homeowners, good for businesses, and
good for taxpayers
Build Strong • Homes and businesses can and should
be built to resist the ravages of a variety of natural catastrophes
• LSU Hurricane Center estimated modern building codes would have spared 80% of Hurricane Katrina wind damage ($8 billion)
• 2005 NIBS study concluded for every $1 spent on pre-disaster mitigation, disaster relief assistance is reduced by $4
• Strong building codes are good for homeowners, good for businesses and good for taxpayers
Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS)
IBHS Research Center – Richburg, South Carolina
www.ibhs.org
NAMIC Leading Push for Safer Building • Formed and leading diverse
BuildStrong Coalition • Insurers, firefighters, emergency
managers, engineers, architects and building materials suppliers
• Developed support for and received introduction of signature priority, The Safe Building Code Incentive Act (SBCIA).
• Testified at two Congressional hearings as experts on safer building codes promoting the SBCIA
• 5o Cosponsors in 112th
• Big Show this Fall at Research Center
NFIP Reform Becomes Law
NAMIC Chair Sandy Parrillo testified on March 11, 2011
• Adequate Rates
• Updated Maps
• Take-up Rates
• Repetitive Loss
• Operational Inefficiencies
Reforms signed into law on June 30, 2012
The PARTS Act
Preserves competition in the aftermarket parts industry, which helps to keep costs down for policyholders and consumers
The Problem
• Under current law, a design patent lasts 14 years from the date it is first issued.
• Recently, auto manufacturers have begun to obtain
design patents on exterior collision parts and are using them to eliminate any aftermarket or third-party ability to sell these parts needed for car repairs.
• Left unchecked, the elimination of competition could affect your local collision repair shop and auto parts store -- and lead to higher insurance costs.
Promoting Automotive Repair,
Trade, and Sale Act
• H.R. 1663/S. 780 Introduced on April 23, 2013
• Creates 30 month window • Current patent law is 14 years
• Protects intellectual property
• Primary market protected
• Very narrow exception for exterior collision repair parts
Politics is not a Spectator Sport!
Insurers must be engaged in shaping the legislative and regulatory landscape
NAMIC PAC FUNDRAISING GROWTH BY ELECTION CYCLE
Contributions have grown by over 400% from 2005 to today.
Receipts in the two year 2014 election cycle are expected to exceed $900,000.
Current Senate Breakdown
50
Number of Senate seats in the 113th Congress, by party
Senate Elections: 2014 and Beyond
* Includes two Independents, Angus King (I-Maine) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who caucus with the Dems Source: The Cook Political Report.
55 45
GOP will once again be on offense and have playing field advantage
2014 Senate Races
55 Democrats – 45 Republicans
35 Senators facing reelection
20 Democrats – 15 Republicans
Only 11 Competitive Races – 9 D, 2R
GOP needs to gain 6 to take control
Democrats Have More Open Seats at Risk in 2014 than Republicans
Source: The Cook Political Report.
Open Senate seats by party
Harkin (IA) D+1 Levin (MI) D+4
Baucus (MT) R+7 Johnson (SD) R+10
Rockefeller (WV) R+13
Chambliss (GA) R+6 Johanns (NE) R+12
Senate Elections: 2014 and Beyond
2014 Senate Races*
GOP Favored – McConnell (R-KY) and GA Open (Chambliss)
Dem Favored – Shaheen (D-NH)
Lean GOP – SD Open (Johnson, D), WV Open (Rockefeller, D)
Lean Dem – IA Open
Toss-Up Tilt GOP – MT Open
Toss-Up Tilt Dem - Begich(D-AK), Hagan (D-NC)
Pure Toss-Up – Landrieu (D-LA), Pryor (D-AR)
* Ratings from Stu Rothenberg
2014 House Elections
Current House Breakdown
* Includes 1 currently vacant Republican-held district (Bonner, AL-01)
Analysis Democrats need a 17-seat gain to win control of the House in 2014
Number of House seats in the 113th Congress, by party
2014 House Elections
Only 67 Competitive or Potentially Competitive Democrats Must Run the Table to Win Back House in 2014
Number of House seats in the 113th Congress, by party
2014 House Elections
218
Democrats must win every Solid Democrat, Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss-Up, and Lean Republican district, and 4 Likely Republican districts, to take back the House
(96%)
2014 House races by 2012 presidential performance (Obama vs. Romney)
(93%)
Long-Run Effects of Redistricting Means House is Fairly Inelastic in 2014
2014 House Elections
The Presidential Race will begin in 1 year
The playing field is crowded so candidates will:
• Try to carefully stand out
• Attempt to be helpful to candidates in 2014
• Implode one at a time
2016 Most Likely Candidates
Thank You