obama vs. romney: is it the economy,...
TRANSCRIPT
Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes
Pew Research Center
October 24-25, 2012
Obama vs. Romney: Is It the Economy, Stupid?
The American Voter
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Voter Turnout 2004 2008
% %
Total 63.8 63.6
White 67.2 66.1
Black 60.0 64.7
Hispanic 47.2 49.9
Asian 44.1 47.6
Men 62.1 61.5 (60.7 m)
Women 65.4 65.7 (70.4 m)
18-24 46.7 48.5
25-44 60.1 60.0
45-74 71.0 69.8
75+ 68.5 67.8 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.
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Young-Old Voting Gap Largest Since 1972
Current figures based on registered voters, Sept. 22-Oct. 4, 2011. Previous data based on exit polls.
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% Voting for Democratic presidential candidate
Number of Independents Continues to Grow
2012 numbers calculated as of October 12 (People-Press surveys).
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31
25 24
33
36
32
29
32
37
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Republican Democrat Independent
Party Profiles in 2012
Whites and blacks include those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Calculations for the year up to October 12 (People-Press surveys).
Republicans Independents Democrats
% % %
White 87 68 55
Black 2 7 24
Hispanic 6 15 14
Other 4 8 6
Male 50 55 41
Female 50 45 59
Average age 50.3 44.2 48.2
Think of self as…
Conservative 70 32 23
Moderate 25 45 39
Liberal 5 23 38
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Large Partisan Divides
Bars show the differences between Republicans and Democrats across 15 values indices based on related survey
questions. * Environment index began in 1992, immigration index in 2002. People-Press 2012 Values survey.
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10
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12
14
2
5
14
16
4
6
17
20
5
23
5
7
14
15
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15
17
20
24
24
33
33
37
39
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Political engagement
Govt responsiveness
Optimism
National security
Personal finance
Religiosity
Social conservatism
Personal efficacy
Business
Immigration**
Govt performance
Equal opportunity
Labor unions
Environment*
Social safety net
1987 2012
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The Domestic Economy as an Electoral Issue
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Consumer Confidence and Presidential Elections
Data sources: Conference Board, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Taken from Council on Foreign Relations
102
94
74
102
62
105
96
70
Nixon Ford Carter Reagan George HW Bush
Clinton George W Bush
2012 (Sept)
Avg
. C
on
su
mer C
on
fid
en
ce in
Reele
cti
on
Years
Reelected incumbents Losing incumbents
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People More Positive about Economic Future
NBC News/Wall Street Journal October 2012 poll.
10
35 27
36 42 44
45
51 50 51 57
50
0
20
40
60
80 Economy will get better Economy is recovering
June July August September October
But Not Better Off “Now”
September 6, 2012 Pew Social and Demographic Trends
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50
38 41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Obama takes office
Recession begins
% saying their personal financial situation is excellent or good
The Economy is Top Priority
NBC News/WSJ Sept. 26-30, 2012 poll.
Issue that matters most in deciding vote...
Likely voters
%
The economy 46
Social issues and values 15
Social Security and Medicare 12
Health care 10
The federal deficit 7
Foreign policy and the Middle East 6
Terrorism 1
12
Swing Priorities Differ by Gender
Asked of registered voters in 12 key swing states.
October 5-11, 2012 Gallup poll .
The most important issue in this election is…
Women Men
Among female registered voters
% Among male registered voters
%
Abortion 39 Jobs 38
Jobs 19 The economy 37
Healthcare 18 Federal budget deficit 10
The economy 16 Healthcare 10
Equal rights/pay 15 Taxes 6
Gov’t regulation 3 Gov’t regulation 4
Education 2 Defense/National security 4
Medicare/Elderly care 2 Medicare/Elderly care 3
Social Security 2 Foreign policy 2
Taxes 1 Honesty/Integrity 2
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International Issues
14
Foreign Issues Far Less Important than in 2008, 2004
Selected answers shown. Respondents were allowed to give more than one answer. Based
on general public. People-Press March 2012 survey.
Most important problem facing the country …
July 2004
July 2008
Mar 2012
% % %
Economic problems NET 25 61 65
Unemployment/Jobs 8 5 31
Economy (General) 14 39 24
Foreign issues NET 41 25 7
War/Iraq/Afghanistan 25 17 3
15
More Favor Focusing Greater Attention on Problems at Home
People-Press 2012 Values survey.
88
73 78
83
48
33 37
45
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Agree Completely agree
We should pay less attention to problems overseas, concentrate on problems here at home
16
Support for Tough U.S. Approach Toward Iran, China
Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.
October 4-7, 2012 People-Press survey.
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In dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, what’s more important?
Jan 2012
%
Oct 2012
%
Take a firm stand 50 56
Avoid military conflict with Iran 41 35
Other/ Don’t know 10 9
100 100
Which is more important in dealing with China on economic issues?
Mar 2011
Oct 2012
Building a stronger relationship 53 42
Getting tougher 40 49
Don’t know 7 9
100 100
Obama, Romney Tied on Foreign Policy, Romney Leads on China
Based on registered voters.
October 4-7, 2012 People-Press survey.
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Who can do the better job …
Obama Romney
% %
Making wise decisions about foreign policy 47 43
China’s trade policies 40 49
Iran’s nuclear program 45 44
Political instability in Egypt, Libya 47 42
The Horse Race
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Romney Support Grows
Based on likely voters. Polls were not conducted at the same time.
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Early-Mid Sept
Late Sept/ Early Oct Mid Oct
Gallup N/A Even +6 Romney
NBC/WSJ +5 Obama +3 Obama Even
Wash Post/ABC +1 Obama +2 Obama +1 Obama
CBS +3 Obama N/A +2 Obama
Pew +8 Obama +4 Romney N/A
Presidential Race by Gender
Based on registered voters.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey.
Men Women
22
Romney
Obama
44
47
0
25
50
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
49
45
0
25
50
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Presidential Race by Age 18-29 30-49
50-64 65+
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Based on registered voters.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey.
52
35
0
25
50
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
45
51
0
25
50
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
52
40
0
25
50
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
38
55
0
25
50
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Presidential Race by Race White non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic
24
Based on registered voters. Hispanic values shown only for surveys with more than 100 Hispanic respondents.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey.
69
24
0
25
50
75
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
38
55
0
25
50
75
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
90
3 0
25
50
75
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Romney Makes Gains, Stable Views of Obama
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Romney’s Favorability Improves
Based on registered voters.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey.
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50 55
50 50 55
49
48 43
48 45
42 48
Unfavorable
Favorable
Oct 2012
Nov 2011
38
29
41 37
45
50
45
55
47 52 50
46
Unfavorable
Favorable
Oct 2012
Nov 2011
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Romney Support Strengthens
Based on registered voters.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey.
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Percent who “STRONGLY” support their candidate
38 34
56
67 60
64 68 68
Obama supporters
Romney supporters
June July Sept Oct
Economic Confidence in Romney
Based on registered voters.
NBC News/ Wall Street Journal October, 2012 survey.
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How confident are you that __ has the right set of goals and policies toward the economy
Aug Oct Change
% %
Obama
Confident 34 37 +3
Not confident 66 63 -3
Romney
Confident 27 35 +8
Not confident 73 64 -9
Romney Advantage on Economy
Based on registered voters.
NBC/Wall Street Journal October, 2012 survey.
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Who would be better when it comes to…
Budget deficit
Jobs and unemployment
Dealing with economy
Dealing with taxes
Being commander-in-chief
Handling foreign policy
Dealing with Medicare
Handling Afghanistan
Being knowledgeable/experienced
Looking out for middle class
Dealing with women’s issues +23
+16
+13
+12
+9
+8
+3
+1
-6
-7
-13
Romney Obama
Swing States
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Votes by State Swing Leaning Obama Solid Obama Leaning Romney Solid Romney
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Source: NY Times election map
Swing State Polls
RealClearPolitics polling averages.
Obama Romney Adv % %
Nevada 49 46 +3 Obama
Wisconsin 49.8 47 +2.8 Obama
Iowa 48.8 46.8 +2 Obama
Ohio 47.6 45.7 +1.9 Obama
Virginia 48 48 Even
Colorado 47.6 47.8 +0.2 Romney
New Hampshire 48.4 47.4 +1 Romney
Florida 46.6 48.4 +1.8 Romney
North Carolina 44.7 50.3 +5.6 Romney
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Swing Voters Divided On Issues
Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they
will change their mind (18% of voters). Figures read across, percent volunteering both, neither and don’t know not
shown. Statistically significant advantages in bold.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 33
Issues: Who would do the better job …
Obama Romney Adv
% %
Reducing the federal budget deficit 20 41 R+21
Improving the job situation 24 37 R+13
Dealing with taxes 33 33 even
Making wise decisions on foreign policy 40 26 O+14
Dealing with Medicare 43 26 O+17
Dealing with health care 47 26 O+21
Who …
Has better ideas about the role of government in solving problems 35 33 O+2
…But Like Obama’s Traits
Based on registered voters. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or say there is still a chance they
will change their mind (18% of voters). Figures read across, percent volunteering both, neither and don’t know not
shown. Statistically significant advantages in bold.
People-Press October 4-7, 2012 survey. 34
Traits: Which candidate …
Obama Romney Adv
% %
Has new ideas 29 39 R+10
Is willing to work with other party 34 29 O+5
Is a strong leader 36 23 O+13
Takes more moderate positions 42 26 O+16
Is honest and truthful 34 14 O+20
Takes consistent positions on issues 43 20 O+23
Connects well with ordinary Americans 69 7 O+62
All Pew Global Attitudes Project reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org