Observations of on-going Arctic change

Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA PMEL, J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins, J. Calder

Observations of on-going Arctic Change

The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice

minimum. The Arctic Report Card

www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of information on

recent changes in the Arctic. Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts

www.arctic.noaa.gov/future Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader

audience, beyond the science literature.

Sea Ice OutlookA community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum

Reports issued monthly throughout summer

Synthesize community-wide estimates

Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice

Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

The Arctic Report Card updated for 2010Tracks recent environmental changes

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GreenlandRecord-setting high air temperatures, ice loss by melting, and marine-terminating glacier loss.Highest rate melt since 1958, area and duration of ice sheet melt greater than any on record since 1978.

Cumulative annual area changes for 35 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets. Greenland

Record setting high temperatures, ice melt, and glacier area loss

AtmosphereThere is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes

Dec average 1968-1996

AtmosphereArctic climate is impacting mid-latitude weather, as seen in Winter 2009-2010

850 mb geopotential height field

Dec 2009 Feb 2010

Air temperature anomalies DEC 2009

This creates the Warm Arctic-Cold Continent Climate Pattern

December 2010

Cold Northern Europe and US East Coast

More north-south flow & Negative NAO index

Two Major winter events in a row

Attribution Difficult!

We can say that loss of sea ice pushes toward a greater chance for a breakdown of the Polar Vortex

Also expect large impacts from Chaos, Snow, and Stratospheric influences

Sea IceSeptember minimum sea ice extent is third lowest recorded, and there is less thick multiyear sea ice in Beaufort Sea during summer

Sea ice age for first week in March

Sea IceSummer sea ice conditions for previous four years well below 1980s and 1990s

1988 2008

2009 2010

Biology, Ocean, LandMany indications of warming

LandLow winter snow accumulation, warm spring temperatures lead to record low snow cover duration

OceanUpper ocean showing year-to-year variability without significant trends

BiologyRapid environmental change threatens to disrupt current natural cycles

Record low snow cover duration in 2010.

Sea Ice Outlook 2010http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum

Reports are released monthly throughout the summer Supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Arctic Report Card 2010 http://www.arctic.noaa.gov

Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens

Updated annually Supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic

Research Program