oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the north atlantic climate variability: observational...

Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability:

observational studies and GCMs responses

Dpto. de Física de la Tierra I (Geofísica y Meteorología) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, UCM

África Barreto, Teresa Losada, Javier García, Irene Polo, Belén Rodríguez de Fonseca y Encarna Serrano

Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005

Anomalous rainfall regimen in Iberian

Peninsula and NW Africa

Low frequency variability in North Atlantic

CICYT/CLI96-1843

Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM

Geopotential & temperature ERA15 (surface - 200 hPa)

- International meetings (EGS, Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa Geodesia-Geofísica, Meteorology of the Milenium/Roy. Meteo. Soc, 2nd. Int. Conference on Reanalyses, Internatioal Meeting on Statistical Climatology)

- 3 conference proceedings

-Rodriguez-Fonseca B. Relación entre el Régimen Anómalo de Precipitación en la Península Ibérica y la Variabilidad del Sistema Climático en el Atlántico Norte, 2001. PhD Thesis.

Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. and E. Serrano, 2002:Winter ten-day coupled patterns between geopotential height and Iberian Peninsula rainfall using the ECMWF precipitation reanalysis J. Climate, 15, 1309-1321 .

Observed & ERA15 data


CICYT/CLI96-1843

-Rodríguez-Fonseca and Castro, 2002: On the connection between winter anomalous precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco and the summer subtropical Atlantic SST Geophys. Ress. Lett. 29, Nº 18, 1863, doi=10.1029/2001GL014421 2002

CICYT/REN2000-0770

Winter rainfall

Atmospheric predictorsstratosphere

Oceanic predictors

-Subtropical Atlantic SST

International Meeting: Chapman Conference on the NAO



Anomalous winter rainfall regimen in Europe/NW

Africa

North Atlantic SST anomalies

CICYT/REN2000-0770

MCYT/REN2002-3424

U. Delaware data (1ºx1º lat-lon) ERSST database (2ºx2º lat-lon)

90%

9 8%

9 5%

9 8%

9 0%

9 5%

> 0

< 0

99%99%

90%95 %98%

90%

99%98%95%

> 0

<0

SVD1 correlation maps (SST_JJAS, pt_NDJF )


- International meetings ( IAPSO-IABO, Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa Geodesia-Geofísica, EGS)


Connection between rainfall anomalies in winter and the previous subtropical North Atlantic summer SST anomalies, NAO-like precipitation dipole.

oceanic index SA: JJAS SST { 15ºN-25ºN-20ºW-30ºW }

potential predicting use for winter seasonal anomalous rainfall Evaluation of the North Atlantic SST forcing on the European and Northern African winter climate, 2004. Rodríguez-Fonseca, Polo, Serrano and Castro (accepted in Int. J. Climatol.)


Anomalous winter rainfall regime in

Europe/NW Africa

Subtropical North Atlantic previous

summer SST anomalies

CICYT/REN2000-0770

MEC/REN2002-3424


NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (2.5º x 2.5º)

Mid-latitude geopotential anomalies at low stratosphere are connected to subtropical SST 3 months before and propagate downwards in 2 months

Stratospheric bridge

ERSST database (2º x 2º lat-lon)

Lag (months)

hPa

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

r (SA_JJAS, Z) 35º-25ºW ;35º-45ºN


part of a MCYT project, announcement 2004-07

Anomalous winter rainfall in Euro-Atlantic region

CICYT/REN2000-0770

MEC/REN2002-3424


Forcing stratospheric

North Atlantic climate variability

Current studies

ERA40 Reanalysis (1.125º x 1.125º)

Large geopotential anomalies in the polar low stratosphere a few days before NAO extreme events propagate downwards and lead anomalies in the troposphere mean


-25-30 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 lag (days)

hPa

LOW NAO (DJF)Standarized geopotential anomalies over 70º-90ºN;-180º-180ºE

-25-30 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

lag (days)

hPa

HIGH NAO (DJF)

- International meetings (EGS, APMG)


- Serrano and Rodriguez-Fonseca (2004), Revista Física de la Tierra.

Anomalous winter rainfall regimen in Europe /NW Africa

Subtropical North Atlantic summer SST anomalies

MEC/REN2002-3424


AGCM of UCLA

Physical mechanisms

- International meetings (EGU)

- Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., A. Robertson and R. C. Mechoso, 2005. The North Atlantic oceanic Internal Variability generating atmospheric circulation anomalies. Submitted to GRL.


1. Role of the Atlantic Ocean generating atmospheric circulation anomalies2. Sensitivity studies using prescribed SST in the Subtropical North Atlantic.

Collaboration with:UCLA (USA) Dr. C. R. Mechoso and Dr. Gabriel Caces Boeccio

- Polo, Losada and Rodriguez-Fonseca (2004), Revista Física de la Tierra. - Polo, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Sheinbaum, 2004. The Subsurface Subtropical North Atlantic role on the European climate variability (submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett)

MCYT/REN2002-3424

Subtropical Atlantic Ocean subsurface

temperature

European Climate variability

Collaboration with:CICESE (Mejico) Dr. Julio Sheimbaum and Dr. Julio CandelaLODYC (Paris) Dr. Alban Lazar

Subtropical Atlantic Ocean SST

International meetings (APMG,EGS)Conference proceedings

EC/AMMA-004089-2

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (2005-20010)


UCLA AGCM


1. Study of the effects of SST anomalies of different oceanbasins on the west african monsoon (WAM) rainfall variability.

2. Identificaton of key WAM diagnostics/variables and predictands.

3. Teleconnection between WAM and the Mediterranean climate variability.

3. Intercomparison of models.

oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the north atlantic climate variability: observational...

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