oclc research oclc online computer library center futuregazing: a presentation to the auc staff...

OCLC ResearchOCLC Online Computer Library Center

Futuregazing: A presentation to the AUC staff

Atlanta University Center staff retreat16 July 2006Atlanta, GA

Eric ChildressOCLC Research


Outline

The Big Picture

Generations

Perceptions of Library Users

The Library Realm

OCLC – work underway

Q&A / Discussion


OCLC Reports

http://www.oclc.org/reports



The Big Picture


Pattern recognition

Production anywhere, Global distribution

Make products anywhere, ship them everywhere

Offshore business processes & research centers

Network everywhere

Wi-fi, Bluetooth, cell phone towers, GPS

Big brands & mini channels

Mega-publishers, -media, -retailers, -search engines

Niche markets exploited via AdWords & affiliate programs

The “Attention Economy”


Pattern recognition (cont’)

Portable devices, digital content, Net in your pocket

Devices (iPods, now with video; Are iPhones next?)

Audio (Ringtones, iTunes, Podcasts) & Video (Vlogs, Google

Self-service, micro-consumption

The “convenience” society – 24x7 stores, ATMs, click-n-buy

Disaggregation – consume by the news story, song, etc.

Intellectual property issues

Big business not-so-secretly wants all transactions billable

Open Source & Open Content rising (e.g., Apache, Creative Commons)

http://www.apache.org/

http://creativecommons.org/


Me, mine, ours

Individual-driven content rising:

Personal web pages/Blogs (a new one each second!)

Digital images/video (flickr, Picasa, YouTube)

Bookmarks, etc. (e.g., del.icio.us, furl, digg, technorati)

The Network as community

Online gaming, VOIP, chat

Community authorship - open content (Wikipedia), open source software

Myspace, Facebook, etc. personal presence services

Instant verification:

RSS, blogs, search engines, online news, opinion sites, fact-checking sites, etc. post and process news and opinion swiftly

The Wisdom of the crowd

Google’s Page-Rank uses “link-love” to rank value

Amazon, etc. using buying decisions for recommendations, more

http://www.flickr.com/

http://picasa.google.com/

http://www.youtube.com/

http://del.icio.us/

http://www.furl.net/

http://digg.com/

http://www.technorati.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

http://www.myspace.com/

http://www.facebook.com/


Source: David Sifry

Blog Trends

http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000432.html


It’s all digital (or will be)

Content is now born digital

Editorial & publishing workflows are digital

Print is moving from default format to being a special-cases output option

Deep indexing:

Google, Yahoo, etc. print digitization initiatives

Amazon’s “Search inside”

On demand: Google Alerts, MSN RSS, etc.

Strong interest in digitizing older material (the “long tail”)

Google Print Library project / Yahoo & Open Content Alliance / Million Books project, Project Gutenberg, others..

Other sources – Archives, museums, government agencies, NGO & university press publication backfiles, more…

Many, many digital library projects

http://www.google.com/alerts

http://print.google.com/googleprint/library.html

http://www.opencontentalliance.org/

http://www.library.cmu.edu/Libraries/MBP_FAQ.html

http://www.gutenberg.org/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_digital_library_projects


Techscape

Web 2.0:

The Network spans all attached devices (iPods, phones, etc.)

Software resides on the Net, not the workstation

“Participative Net” – social environment

Content mashed-up, reused, altered, re-released

System refactoring

Modularity (micro-services, remixing, multiple sources)

Layering (loosely-coupled systems)

Interoperability (low-friction, high reuse)

Lightweight protocols gaining favor (e.g., SRW/SRU, microformats)

Machine-oriented services (Web services)

http://www.loc.gov/standards/sru/

http://microformats.org/


Generations


Recent generations (U.S.)

Baby Boomers [1946-64]

Technological bloom

Mass media, national brands, superstars

Social, cultural, political upheaval

Generation X [born 1965-78]

Sometimes overshadowed by Boomers

Global brands, personal computing, electronic gaming

“Me” generation

Millennials [born 1979-2000]

Net/Technology is woven into life

Close to parents

Group activity is natural

Ethnic/racial/cultural diversity is a given


Reading newspapers

Watching television

Listening to the radio

Spending time with friends and

family

40%

19%

14%

Using library services

39%

24%

What are students doing less, to make time for the Internet?


Perceptions of Users


OCLC Perceptions Report

OCLC commissioned Harris Interactive, Inc. for survey

Survey conducted May-June, 2005, online in English

Australia, Canada, India, Singapore, U.K., U.S.

3,348 respondents (396 college students, 621 14-17 year olds)

Findings chiefly confirm phenomena explored in the 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan

Users are as comfortable using Web information sources as library sources

The library brand is largely positive, very strong (“books”), but libraries are often perceived as outdated/outmoded

Younger respondents tend to have more awareness of what libraries offer, but this doesn’t always translate into use


Familiarity and Favorability Extremely familiar:

1. Search engines

2. Physical bookstore

3. Physical library

4. Online bookstore

5. Online library

Usage


Frequency of Library Use

College students also use public libraries!


Activities at the Library

Colleges students use the library more intensely

Library appears to serve as a “Third place” for students


Past and Anticipated Use by College Students


Usage of Electronic ResourcesCollege students use electronic resources more intensely than library users at large

E-resources


Finding Information Online


Learning about Electronic Information SourcesHelp finding

sources:

1. Friend

2. Links

3. Teacher

4. News media

5. Colleague

6. Library Web site

7. Librarian

Authority


Who has worthwhile information?

Quality sources:

1. Google

2. Library web site

3. Yahoo

4. MSN Search

5. Ask


Library vs. Search EngineLibraries are perceived as high quality, low convenience options

“In this world, convenience will always trump quality. It is our job to make quality convenient.” – Bruce Newell (Montana Library Network)

Brand


The “Library” Brand


Positive and Negative Associations


Be Advised…


The Library Realm


Book Trade

A complex space gets more complex…

Web has had an impact on publishing & retail:

Give-electronic-to-sell-print model (e.g., National Academies Press)

Newer players: Amazon, isbn.nu, others taking retail marketshare

Online books sales grew @34.2% between 2003-2004 (11% overall)

Bricks-and-mortar stores building web presence

Used is good

N.B. BISG estimates 2004 used book market = $2.2 Billion (111 million books, 8.4% total consumer spending on books.)

E-books & e-audiobooks

Slowly developing momentum (esp. STM e-books) and acceptance

Novel approaches such as e-text into factual databases being tried

Pricing models & copyright/DRM (Digital Rights Mgt.) still pose barriers

Publishing

http://www.nap.edu/

http://www.isbn.nu/

http://www.bisg.org/news/press.php?pressid=29


Serial/media publishing

Publisher print-to-online transition accelerating

Self-aggregation

Article, news item, headline replacing journal, newspaper, magazine as unit of consumption

Newspapers, magazines, radio, TV:

More players – more TV channels, satellite radio, Internet radio, Web news sources, Google news, etc.

Audience shifting to online or alternatives (e.g., Journalism alternatives such as news blogs, alternative news outlets)

Ad revenue offline not transitioning as fast as readers to online ; losing audience & revenue to Craigslist, other sales/classified ad channels

Business models = less subscription & more advertising

Experimentation with Wikis (Newsweek), web services (BBC), user-created programming (KYOU)

http://www.craigslist.org/about/cities.html

http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/data/Data

http://www.kyouradio.com/


Source: OCLC

Library Collections

http://www.oclc.org/membership/escan/appendices/collectiongrid.htm


Published content space in libraries

Libraries originally established to collect and manage scarce content in physical containers

Now in a period of content abundance (the Web)

Libraries still strongly text and physical container-based collection oriented

Physical materials supply chain ever more automated

Ordering, processing/cataloging, ready-to-shelve…

Digital content continues to make inroads into libraries (spending up; users want it)

E-books finally gaining some traction

E-audiobooks getting attention and interest from users

Strong trend to access published digital remotely rather than load locally

Collection/selection process trends

New and improved selection tools from ILS vendors, jobbers, OCLC

Cooperative collection arrangements, cooperative remote storage


Source:ARL

http://www.arl.org/stats/arlstat/graphs/2004/monser04.pdf


Other parts of collections grid…

Special collections:

Often unique to single library -- typically high interest in digitizing, but not necessarily bandwidth/funding

ARL’s “hidden collections” work (addressing cataloging backlog)

Education/research products:

Opportunity for libraries to help scholarship & teaching, but not simple or inexpensive task

Mostly poorly developed interfaces between systems, processes, practices in Course Mgt. Systems (CMS) & those in library services. Overlap with e-reserves? Library often invisible in CMS

Open web:

Varied content (akin to Grey literature) & unclear what role(s) libraries should/can play vs. search engines, Internet Archive, etc.

Various slices-of-web projects:

Some libraries harvest all or some content from their country’s domain

Topical/period projects such as Library of Congress’ Election 2002 Web Archive

http://www.arl.org/collect/spcoll/index.html

http://www.ifla.org/IV/ifla71/papers/177e-Wiggins.pdf

http://www.loc.gov/minerva/collect/elec2002/


Libraries: Re-thinking, re-engineering

Library 2.0 changes systems & services

Modularity in systems & data

Integration of data from many sources

User-contributed content

Supporting Library 2.0 will mean change

More people space, fewer bookshelves

Library system as platform not monolith

Librarian 2.0 (savvy, online, accessible, listening, contributing)

“Information is a conversation” -- Karen Schneider

Flowing the library into the Network

Surfacing on the Web: Open WorldCat, OAIster, etc.

Embedding the library in other systems (e.g., Learning Mgt.)

Networkflows – bend the library to users’ processes – Lorcan Dempsey

Platforms

http://www.squidoo.com/library20/

http://tametheweb.com/2006/06/ten_rules_for_the_new_libraria_1.html


Thinking aloud…

Michael Stephens on Library 2.0:

The library is everywhere

The library has no barriers

The library invites participation

The library uses flexible, best-of-breed systems

The library encourages the heart

Cyril Oberlander on re-engineering:

Harness non-library sources (Amazon, Netflix…)

Streamline processes (how many steps are truly needed?)

Deliver service first, sweat the small stuff later acquire-choose-catalog vs. choose-acquire-catalog

Invest in staff (collaborate, educate, and innovate)

Intelligent business requires business intelligence


OCLC – work underway


OCLC at work

WorldCat.org [info]

Builds on Open WorldCat program that exposes WorldCat to Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Ask, etc.

Search box/destination page for all of WorldCat

WorldCat expansion – continuing to load more data from more libraries worldwide

Registries & resolvers & data services

OpenURL resolver registry – helps patrons access e-resources from Google Scholar, etc.

Registry of Digital Masters – a central registry of digitization intent/work

Institutional registry – information about OPACs, other data that helps library services be more exposed for creative applications (e.g., mash-ups)

Data services, etc.

OCLC Terminologies service – a simple side-pane for accessing vocabularies while doing cataloging and more

Prototyping various under-the-hood data services such as xISBN, FRBR (clustering of bibliographic records), more


OCLC Research

A unit within OCLC

Conducts and supports academic research on library-related topics

Active in standards work

Explores new ideas through prototyping, data mining, etc.


Sample FRBR implementations

FRBR (Functional Requirements of Bibliographic Records)

Model for clustering related records together

Sample FRBR efforts

Top 1000

xISBN

FictionFinder


Top 10 works in WC by holdings

#10from OCLC Top 1000

#1

http://www.oclc.org/research/top1000


xISBNOCLC Research prototype

Reveals all ISBNs associated with individual works in WorldCat

Web service:

URL syntax query (submit an ISBN)

Simple XML response (all ISBNs in workset)

Ex: Dune http://labs.oclc.org/xisbn/0441172717

Users:

Various, loosely-coupled look-it-up applications

Copyright Clearance Center

OCLC Research team:

Thom Hickey (lead)

Jenny Toves

Jeff Young

http://www.oclc.org/research/projects/xisbn

http://labs.oclc.org/xisbn/0441172717

http://labs.oclc.org/xisbn/0441172717

xISBN server returns list of ISBNs for a given work

(in this case, Dune by Frank Herbert)


FictionFinder

OCLC Research prototype

Supports searching & browsing of fiction materials cataloged in WorldCat

Fiction records — 2.8 million

Unique works — 1.4 million

Total holdings — 130 million

Employs FRBR to:

Build a “work” view & cluster related records

Support the creation of special indexes

OCLC Research team:

Diane Vizine-Goetz (lead)

Roger Thompson

Carol Hickey

J.D. Shipengrover

New version:

Available later in 2006

Improved navigation & work-based displays

http://www.oclc.org/research/projects/frbr/fictionfinder.htm

http://fictionfinder.oclc.org/

A “work” record

Individual WorldCat records attached to

the FRBR “work”

A “manifestation” – i.e. an individual WorldCat record


Further reading

OCLC Reports


OCLC Research

http://www.oclc.org/research

OCLC-related blogs:

Lorcan Dempsey http://orweblog.oclc.org

Thom Hickey http://outgoing.typepad.com/outgoing

Stu Weibel http://weibel-lines.typepad.com

It’s All Good http://scanblog.blogspot.com


Thank you

Eric Childress

[email protected]

oclc research oclc online computer library center futuregazing: a presentation to the auc staff...

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