OCTOBER 2003 PROGRESS REPORTOCTOBER 2003 PROGRESS REPORTICAP Phase 2ICAP Phase 2

Harvard UniversityHarvard University

Daniel J. Jacob (P.I.), Rokjin J. Park, Noelle Eckley, and Loretta J. MickleyNovember 7, 2003

GEOS-CHEM OXIDANT-PM 2001 SIMULATION FOR USE GEOS-CHEM OXIDANT-PM 2001 SIMULATION FOR USE AS CMAQ BOUNDARY CONDITIONSAS CMAQ BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

- APPROACH:1. Conduct a fully coupled oxidant-aerosol simulation on 2o x 2.5o horizontal

resolution. 2. Archive a full set of 31 species concentrations including ozone, inorganic

aerosols, and their precursors at 3-hr time resolution from the surface to 0.01 hPa.

3. GEOS-CHEM results archived will be processed for incorporation into the CMAQ simulations using linking tools developed by Daewon Byun.

- CURRENT STATUS:

1. The simulation is in progress. The Jan-Jun 2001 period has already been

completed and data are archived at Harvard. Monthly data files are 13 GB.

2. First week of data in January has been transferred to U. of Houston for

processing into CMAQ IC/BC.

LINKING GEOS-CHEM AND CMAQ:LINKING GEOS-CHEM AND CMAQ:TRANSBOUNDARYTRANSBOUNDARY TRANSPORT OF TRANSPORT OF CARBONACEOUS CARBONACEOUS

AEROSOLS FROM MEXICAN FIRESAEROSOLS FROM MEXICAN FIRES

- APPROACH: conduct CMAQ (cb4-aero3) run for May1-31 1998 over CONUS 36 km domain with and without GEOS-CHEM boundary conditions.

Run1: Use the standard profile initial and boundary conditions with no carbonaceous aerosol emission from wildfires in CONUS domain.

Run2: Same as in Run 1 but with carbonaceous aerosol emission from wildfires in CONUS domain.

Run3: Use the initial and boundary conditions updated every three hours from GEOS-CHEM with no carbonaceous aerosol emission from wildfires in CONUS domain.

Run4: Same as in Run3 with carbonaceous aerosol emission from wildfires in CONUS domain.

- CURRENT STATUS:

Runs 1 and 2 are completed, Run 3 is in progress.

Collaboration with Daewon Byun, U. Houston

IMPROVING THE GEOS-CHEM MERCURY SIMULATION IMPROVING THE GEOS-CHEM MERCURY SIMULATION

• Improved chemistry: slower reaction with OH

• Improved dry deposition mechanism

Noelle Eckley, work in progress

• These improvements have led to more realistic values of TGM; annual model averages are now within 10-20% of observations.

GEOS-CHEM MERCURY SIMULATION: GEOS-CHEM MERCURY SIMULATION: COMPARISON WITH SITE MEASUREMENTSCOMPARISON WITH SITE MEASUREMENTS

SITE LAT. LONG. MEASURED SIMULATED

(GEOS-CHEM)

MODEL

ERROR

Alert, Nunavut, Canada

82.5 N 62.3 W 1.54 1.73 +11.7%

Zeppelin, Norway 78.54 N 11.5 E 1.56 1.88 +20.6%

Mace Head, Ireland 53.7 N 9.6 W 1.73 1.43 -17.3%

Delta, British Columbia, Canada

49.10 N 123.1 W 1.72 1.43 -16.7%

Cheeka Peak, Washington, USA

48.3 N 124.6 W 1.56 1.43 -8.0%

St. Andrews, New Brunswick, Canada

45.08 N 67.0 W 1.43 1.60 +12.0%

Kejimujik, Nova Scotia, Canada

44.43 N 65.2 W 1.45 1.60 +9.9%

Cape Point, South Africa

34.35 S 18.5 E 1.39 1.31 -5.2%

Noelle Eckley, work in progress

Simulated vs. measured TGM at selected sites, annual average ( ng/m3)

GEOS-CHEM MERCURY SIMULATION:GEOS-CHEM MERCURY SIMULATION:NEXT STEPSNEXT STEPS

• Analyze model vs. measurements of RGM

• Incorporate Arctic mercury chemistry

• Include other oxidation pathways or reactions if necessary

Noelle Eckley, work in progress

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POLLUTANT VENTILATIONEFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POLLUTANT VENTILATION

GISS GCM simulations of CO and black carbon combustion tracersfor 1990-2050 transient climate

IPCC A1 scenario, To = 2 K from 1990 to 2050

Triangles indicate days of high CO.

Extreme pollution events associated with lower boundary layer heights, but no significant difference between 2000 and 2050 heights.

L.J. Mickley, work in progress

Summertime frequency distributions of maximum daily boundary layer heights over northeast U.S.

1995-2002

2045-2052

Meteorology in NE associated with high CO and BC events Meteorology in NE associated with high CO and BC events includes average temperatures, high pressures, and clear skies includes average temperatures, high pressures, and clear skies

2050

20002 days before high CO

Surf temp Spec humidity Surf press

Low trop clouds Mid trop clouds Precipitation

Frequency distributions show higher extreme values of CO and/or Frequency distributions show higher extreme values of CO and/or black carbon tracers for 2050black carbon tracers for 2050

Northeast Southeast

Upper midwest California

2050

2000

Effect of high pressure systems over southeastern Canada on Effect of high pressure systems over southeastern Canada on U.S. pollution eventsU.S. pollution events

High pressure system centered over SE Canada weakens westerlies over midwest, leads to high CO there.

Surface pressure (mb), SE Canada

Days of high CO over midwest

Winds out of SE during high pollution events, consistent with high pressure over SE Canada

We are currently investigating links between trends in surface pressure and pollution episodes over coming century.

2050 high CO days

2000 high CO days

PUBLICATIONSPUBLICATIONS

• Publications acknowledging support from ICAP:

– Fiore, A.M., D.J. Jacob, H. Liu, R.M. Yantosca, T.D. Fairlie, and Q. Li, Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2003.

– Park, R. J., D. J. Jacob, M. Chin and R. V. Martin, Sources of carbonaceous aerosols over the United States and implications for natural visibility, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4355, 2003.

– Fiore, A.M., D.J. Jacob, B.D. Field, D.G. Streets, S.D. Fernandes, and C. Jang, Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(19), 1919, 2002.

• Manuscript in preparation (draft available):

– Park, R.J., et al., Natural and transboundary influences on ammonium-sulfate-nitrate aerosols in the United States: implications for visibility, for submission to J. Geophys. Res.